Week 6 of the NFL season is underway, and the Kansas City Chiefs' true identity is still a mystery. Despite starting 2-3 with a quarterback that ranks 19th in Passer Rating, I still believe this is a Super Bowl-caliber team led by the greatest football player ever born. The Vegas odds-makers seem to echo my sentiment so far, because despite their losing record, KC still has the fourth-best odds to win it all this year. Today's opposition, the 4-1 Detroit Lions, are betting favorites to win the NFC.
The Detroit Lions' success stems from their offense averaging 2.2 more points per game than any other team in football this season. They've scored at least 34 in their last four games. Three of the defenses they battered - Chicago, Cincy and Baltimore - all rank in the bottom-six in yards and points allowed this season. They also put up 34 on a tough Browns defense during that stretch, which is impressive. KC ranks 13th in both points and yards allowed this season, so tonight will be the closest Detroit has come to facing an average NFL defense. If that translates into the Lions scoring their average amount of points tonight, the Chiefs can't win without Patrick Mahomes looking great.
To be honest, if Detroit scores more than their season average of 35, the Chiefs will lose tonight. KC hasn't scored 35 or more since September of 2023, typically because they don't need to score that much to win. KC looks completely different on offense when Xavier Worthy is healthy, but the Chiefs still cannot expect to win this game 41-38. They need Steve Spagnuolo's defense not to totally stuff Detroit's prolific offense, but to just slow it down a little. Basically, Spags will coach this game like he's coaching against prime Steph Curry in the playoffs - you don't have to limit him to 10 points, just don't let him go off for 50.
A team leading the league in points scored makes me picture a team that's throwing the ball all the time, but the Lions have the third-lowest passing play percentage in the NFL. Dan Campbell's style revolves around Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, who both carried the ball over 60 times for over 300 yards this season. Amon-Ra St. Brown still averages 8.2 targets per game this season, but the perpetually underrated Trent McDuffie should limit him like he limits every other #1 receiver in football. Today's game will come down to KC's ability to slow down that prolific Lions rushing offense and Mahomes' ability to exploit the weak points of Detroit's banged-up secondary. The Lions are down two defensive backs and a linebacker because of injuries, so they could struggle more than usual to stop Mahomes and KC's passing attack.
I believe the Chiefs will win today, but I admit that my reasoning in this particular instance is based more on history than on current events. I know these Chiefs are currently a losing team with some unanswered questions. I won't be shocked or incredibly disheartened if this strong Lions team beats KC tonight. I also know that Mahomes losing a game after a disappointing defeat happens very rarely. In the seven prior seasons of Mahomes as full-time starter, the Chiefs have lost consecutive regular season games four times. I'm predicting a 30-27 victory for the Chiefs.
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