Will KC's Playoff Hopes Survive Tough Texans Test?

The Chiefs really bummed out the Kingdom by losing on Thanksgiving, but did it end their season? I can barely remember how it feels to be a fan of a team unlikely to reach the playoffs. The Kansas City Chiefs are having a legendary run of three straight Super Bowl appearances and seven straight seasons hosting the AFC Championship game, but they currently sit at the #10 seed in their conference.Tonight's do-or-die fight at Arrowhead involves another team still alive in the AFC playoff hunt but currently on the outside looking in, and they're a match-up nightmare for the Chiefs.

Linemen Trey Smith and Jawaan Taylor are listed on KC's injury report as doubtful for tonight's game. If Houston's offense can score a bunch today, the Chiefs' playoff hopes will die, because putting up 40 against this Texans defense isn't happening. Nobody allows fewer yards per game than the Texans this year. They pressure opposing quarterbacks at an alarming rate, and they've tallied up the fourth-most takeaways in football. It's up to KC's defense to improve upon recent unimpressive performances to keep the dream alive tonight.

The Chiefs defense ranks 27th in sacks per game. They have the fourth-fewest takeaways in the NFL after ranking around league-average all last season. Their allowed third-down conversion rate ranks 26th. All these issues were evident when KC lost last week's Thanksgiving game against Dallas due a ton of penalties and numerous missteps from the defense on second-half third-downs. That will end their season if it happens tonight. A victory tonight brings the likeliness of KC reaching the playoffs back up to slightly above 50%.

Aside from playing us again, the Chargers have to play the Eagles, Cowboys, Texans and Broncos. Indy has to play San Fran, Houston and two against Jacksonville. The Bills and Jags have easier paths, but still have work to do to ensure a better seed than Kansas City. Hope is still alive, and the roads to the playoffs are still numerous, as long as KC survives tonight's battle. I'm predicting a 23-20 victory for the Chiefs. To have no hope for the playoffs with over two weeks to go until Christmas would just feel wrong.

Chiefs Visit Jerry World for Tough Turkey Day Test

On this very special holiday, I'm reminded of everything that makes me thankful. I'm thankful for friends, for my family, for my wonderful pets, and I'm thankful the Chiefs didn't blow it last weekend and ruin their whole damn season. After KC survived that nailbiter on Sunday, the odds-makers now have the Chiefs as the third-likeliest team to win the Super Bowl and the betting favorite to win the AFC. That's one hell of an accomplishment for a team that seemed to be on the brink of missing the playoffs.

Andy Reid and his staff clearly thought highly of Indy's tandem of talented cornerbacks in former Chief Charvarius Ward and recently acquired Sauce Gardner. KC's offense approached that game with their most rush-heavy gameplan in several seasons. Kareem Hunt carried the ball 30 times while KC held the Colts' powerful offense to just 20 points. An even bigger surprise came from what running backs did not accomplish on Sunday, as KC held MVP candidate Jonathan Taylor to under 60 rushing yards. That brings the Chiefs' average for rushing yards allowed per game down to 97.6. Every team with a lower average than KC is currently on pace to make the playoffs, aside from Houston, who is the currently the last team out and two spots ahead of the Chiefs.

Moving the ball on the ground successfully was especially important for KC last Sunday when Patrick Mahomes continued his unusual slump. It's safe to say Mahomes still hasn't been his best. He missed on some potentially big plays downfield, his QBR didn't reach 70, and his Passer Rating didn't reach 80. That's three games in a row of Mahomes not reaching a Rating of 80, which he's only done once, and not since mid-season of 2021. Despite this rare multi-game slump, Mahomes is still putting up some big numbers. Actually, both teams meeting in Dallas today have QB's who could be considered the most productive in their conference.

Patrick and Prescott have the two highest averages for passing yardage in the NFL. ESPN's QBR stat ranks Dak first league-wide and Mahomes third. Passer Rating doesn't think either guy is even a top-six quarterback because Passer Rating is kinda dumb, but I'll focus on that some other time. Prescott is playing an elite level of football that's keeping Dallas alive far longer than the Vegas odds-makers and pro analysts predicted. The Cowboys rank first in yards per game and fourth in points with Prescott at the helm.

The defense is their obvious flaw. Dallas allows the fourth-most total yards and the second-most total points in the NFL. They rank 23rd in rushing yards allowed and 30th in passing yards, resulting in the fourth-most total yards allowed per game. Only the Bengals allow their opponents to score more points. Maybe Dallas has some newfound confidence after defeating the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles last week, but that was the first win they've collected over a good football team. Their only other victories came when facing the Giants, Jets, Commanders and Raiders.

I don't expect KC to take their foot off the pedal any time soon, especially not in front of the whole country on Turkey Day. I also don't expect the best football player ever born to keep struggling like he has lately. When the weather gets cold and the games matter most, Mahomes delivers. I'm predicting a 29-24 victory for Kansas City. I hope you get to enjoy today with people who love football and love you. Have a happy Turkey Day.