Old Narratives Regarding Raiders Rivalry Repeat

The narratives about this rivalry feel boring, but maybe that's because the Las Vegas Raiders being awful keeps the narrative the same. Most of the stats don't suggest they should be awful. The presumed upgrades at head coach and quarterback should definitely make them less awful. Still, there they are at 2-4 with a -48 point differential. They just beat the woeful Tennessee Titans last week, which is their first and only win since beating the New England Patriots 20-13 in Week 1.

Does all this make today's game one of the notorious "trap games" on the Chiefs schedule? I think it does, but just enough to ensure that KC did not take things lightly this week. I also think the psychological side of the game matters more when both teams are objectively good. While the Chiefs are finally bringing together the imposing receiver trio of Xavier Worthy, Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown, the Raiders are struggling to move the ball without constantly giving it to their opponent. Only three teams in the NFL have a turnover differential worse than Las Vegas' -4.

The idea that this is the time when KC may let off the gas and potentially lose a stinker also makes this game the perfect time for KC to make a point by dominating a divisional rival. The Raiders continue to be less than the sum of their parts, and the stats back that up consistently. Despite ranking 11th league-wide in total yards allowed, they rank 23rd in points allowed. Despite upgrading at quarterback and drafting a prodigious running back in the first round, only the Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans have scored fewer points per game. I know 12.5 points is a big, big spread, but I think it's getting worse than that. I'm predicting a 37-17 victory for Kansas City.

Allen Again Standing In the Way of Chiefs Chasing Championship History

I want to be the guy who does deep dives on the opposition's second-stringers, and sometimes I am, but today's story being told on the field revolves around the two historically great quarterbacks trying to reach the Super Bowl. Josh Allen's greatness is the only obstacle left for a Kansas City Chiefs team trying to reach their fifth Super Bowl in six years. Allen is either the MVP or the runner-up this season. A Bills team that many pundits expected to regress wound up tying their franchise record for regular season wins, thanks largely to Allen's poised performance and a ridiculously strong team turnover differential.

The Chiefs' turnover differential of +6 was bested by only nine teams in the league this season. The Bills led the league in turnover differential by a margin of eight. Their differential is precisely four-times Kansas City's. This huge disparity exists largely because Josh Allen reduced his interceptions from 18 in 2023 to just six this season. This improvement didn't cost Buffalo their ability to score a bunch of points, either; Buffalo's starters scored at least 30 points in 12 of their 16 regular season opportunities, and they've scored at least 40 in three of their last four. The only bright side for Chiefs fans here is that this Chiefs defense - especially in the playoffs - outclasses anything the Bills experienced this season.

KC's defense allowed the fourth-fewest points per game in the regular season. Buffalo did not play a team that allowed fewer. The Bills defeated the Chiefs earlier this season and scored 30, and when Buffalo faced the Detroit Lions' 7th-ranked scoring defense, Allen's offense put up 48. A key factor here was Detroit finishing that game with zero sacks. Josh has been incredible using his legs this season, but he won't get away with that as much today.

Steve Spagnuolo's defense sacked Houston's C.J. Stroud eight times last week. That came from six different Chiefs and included five sacks in the fourth quarter. Spags' unique prowess in sending blitzes that confuse opposing offenses is an intriguing skill to have when facing a quarterback who excels at stealing first downs with his legs when no passing options are available. It will be fascinating to see how Spagnuolo balances his clever blitz packages with limiting Allen's running skills. Since I believe in the other Hall of Fame-caliber talent doing what they always do in the playoffs, this Spags Vs. Allen chess match should be what decides today's winner.

Today's game should be a true nail-biter. The Bills will likely win the turnover battle. Josh Allen will invariably frustrate Chiefs fans everywhere by converting some crucial third or fourth downs using his scrambling skills. The connection between Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce will continue to be the greatest in NFL history, but Buffalo's desire to limit it could lead to the potential for a home run play to someone like Xavier Worthy or Hollywood Brown. All this should result in an all-time classic victory for our Chiefs, 30-27, in overtime. I hope you can enjoy all of it with people who love football and love you.

Steeler's Won't Sour Kansas City's Christmas

I'm not used to waking up on Christmas and watching Kansas City Chiefs football. It still feels weird, doesn't it? Last time around, things didn't turn out so great for the defending champs. KC lost on this day in 2023 to the Raiders, but they went on to never lose a game for the rest of that season and for another nine games into the next season. Here's to hoping the Chiefs can start a similar run without suffering a similar defeat today.

It's weird to experience live Chiefs football on Christmas, but live Chiefs football on a Wednesday is even weirder. This short week has compounded injury problems for both rosters. Jawaan Taylor and Chris Jones are listed as questionable for today's game. Pittsburgh's Ben Skowronek and Joey Porter Jr. are both out today, but emerging young receiver George Pickens will be back in action. A weakened Chiefs pass-rush could keep things closer than KC would like.

Thankfully for Chiefs Kingdom, the Chiefs still have the advantage against Pittsburgh and, to be fair, everyone else in the league when it matters most. Their third-down conversion rate on offense is now at 50.95%, a full 2% better than the rest of the league. Pittsburgh's defense allows the fifth-lowest third-down conversion rate to opponents this season, so each critical third-down moment for the Chiefs offense will be a strength-on-strength matchup. KC's defense, on the other hand, ranks 20th in opponents' third-down conversion rate. That's a subpar facet of the Chiefs defense which is objectively strong in most other statistical categories right now, which has resulted in the league's third-lowest points-per-game allowed. The 2024 Chiefs currently allow just 0.2 more points per game than the league-leading Los Angeles Chargers.

That impressive defense gave the Chiefs time to find their stride on offense while struggling through injuries. Now, it looks like that offense is finding its rhythm at just the right time. We just watched Hollywood Brown return and immediately make an impact in the passing game with five catches and eight targets. Xavier Worthy completed his current career high of seven passes in his second straight game with 11 targets. The Chiefs continue to get this offense fully operational before it's do-or-die against playoff teams with a proven ability to put a bunch of points on the board.

Another reason for confidence in a Chiefs win today is Patrick Mahomes' domination of the Steelers in an admittedly small two-game sample size. In those two games, Mahomes threw for 584 passing yards, nine touchdowns and no picks. His 148.2 Passer Rating in those two games is the best Rating he has against any team in the league. I like this Chiefs offense with Travis Kelce, DeAndre Hopkins, Xavier Worthy and Hollywood all healthy and involved, so I like the Chiefs in this game, 27-20. I truly hope you get a chance to enjoy the game and the holiday with people you love.

No, Chiefs Kingdom, Cincy Doesn't Suck (Yet, I Think)

Re-watching that Bengals-Pats game from Week 1 was a bizarre viewing experience. Joe Burrow's offense failed to outscore Jacoby Brissett's offense, which isn't a thing I thought I would ever say. This result led many viewers to believe the Bengals are washed, but I'd advise pumping the brakes on that for now. Cincy's slow starts are well-documented, but let's just remind ourselves that they started last year's regular season with a 24-3 loss to Cleveland in which Burrow completed 45.2% of his passes for 82 yards. Zac Taylor has a 1-10 record coaching the Bengals through the first two weeks of the season. That looks ugly on a bigger picture level, but avoiding one or two very avoidable mistakes last week would've changed the current narrative in a major way.

Every team in the NFL lost at least five fumbles last season, except for one. The Cincinnati Bengals only fumbled the ball and lost it twice. When Cincy kicked off this new season with a surprising Week 1 defeat at the hands of the New England Patriots, they lost two fumbles. If the Bengals avoided one or both of those mistakes, that game could've gone in a totally different direction. The Bengals finished last season with the second-lowest total of giveaways in the NFL, so I refuse to presume that they'll cough the ball up a bunch today.

Cincinnati's inability to stop the run, on the other hand, is a consistent problem that dates back to last year. The 126.2 rushing yards per game they allowed last season was the seventh-highest average in football. Last week, the new Patriots bell cow Rhamondre Stevenson ran right through the Bengals defense. Thankfully for Chiefs Kingdom, Stevenson looks an awful lot like a running back with which we are all very familiar. Stevenson and Isiah Pachecho both have career averages for carries per game between 12 and 12.5, rushing yards per game between 56 and 57 and an average yards per carry of 4.6. 

Stevenson and Pacheco are remarkably similar, but the Chiefs' QB is one of the greatest athletes in the history of the universe, and the Pats' QB is currently Jacoby Brissett. This translated into the Pats running the ball far more frequently than KC last week, especially with Stevenson. New England ran the ball 39 times against the Bengals last week, with 25 of those carries going to Stevenson. The Chiefs ran the ball 20 times in total last week. Pacheco's 3.0 yards per carry in his latest performance doesn't look great, but I think the stout Ravens defense played a part in that.

Essentially, Rhamondre is one year older and gets one more six-yard reception per game than Pacheco. It sure as hell wasn't Stevenson's three receptions for six yards that killed Cincy last week, though - it was his 120 rushing yards on 25 carries. Stevenson looked particularly unstoppable when the Pats ended the game with four straight hand-offs to him that resulted in two clock-draining, game-sealing first down conversions. That was enough to give the Pats the win despite Brissett averaging five yards per pass attempt and posting a 75.2 Passer Rating.

I don't expect Cincinnati to play that poorly again, but I obviously expect Patrick Mahomes to do more to help his team than Brissett did last week. That means KC should score more than New England's total of 16 from last week, but that may not be enough to ensure victory. Whether or not Ja'Marr Chase is content right now, he needs to show out against good teams if he wants to keep his market value high. Multiple public expressions of disdain from Chase regarding the back-to-back champs seem to indicate his serious craving for a monster performance against KC. Nobody in Chiefs Kingdom should be shocked or bummed when Cincy scores way more than 10 against KC today, probably thanks to a resurgent Ja'Marr Chase.

Even though I don't consider the Bengals to be a total clown show, I expect our Chiefs to win today. Pacheco should help KC control the clock just like Rhamondre and the Patriots did when facing Cincinnati in Week 1. Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy will still be very, very difficult to all cover at the same time. I'm predicting another exciting chapter in an ever-evolving rivalry and a 27-20 win for the Chiefs.