KC's Offense Shows Growth While Trevor's Turnovers Terrorize Jags

     Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs offense experienced their most success of the season in their Week 4 victory over the currently crestfallen Baltimore Ravens. As his offense dropped 37 on Baltimore, Mahomes posted a Passer Rating of 124.8, which was 35 points better than his Ratings from any other game this season. It's his highest Passer Rating since Christmas. This brings his Passer Rating for the season up to 19th in the league, which may not sound great, but it's miles better than what we've seen from the signal-caller facing off with KC tonight. Jacksonville Jaguars franchise QB Trevor Lawrence ranks behind guys like Bryce Young, Geno Smith and the recently benched Russell Wilson at 30th place in Passer Rating this season.

    Only Geno, Joe Flacco and Jake Browning have thrown more interceptions than Lawrence so far. Trevor avoided a pick last week, but he's thrown at least one in three of his four games this season. Going back to last season, he's thrown at least one in nine of his last 11 games. Despite this, the Jags have a healthy 3-1 record and the league's best turnover differential at +9. That's two better than the second-place Pittsburgh Steelers and six better than the 8th-ranked Chiefs.

    The simple ability to play a clean game at quarterback defines entire eras for football franchises. Current evidence of this is easy to find. Before Week 5 began, Mahomes was one of only six QBs in the league who played all four games and only threw one interception. The only guy to do so without throwing any picks? Defending Super Bowl champ Jalen Hurts.

    While Trevor has a long history with turnover issues, the era of Jacksonville having an excellent turnover ratio is quite short; just last year, they finished the regular season with the fourth-worst turnover differential in the NFL. The Jags defense ranks fourth in points allowed this season, giving up just 18 points per game, so it won't be a cakewalk for KC's improving, evolving offense tonight. The Jags' defense looks strong, but it's only allowing one point fewer than KC's defense. It's also worth noting that the Jags have faced the Cincinnati Bengals when Jake Browning took most of the snaps for an injured Joe Burrow, a depleted San Francisco 49ers offense still led by a hobbling Brock Purdy, a struggling Houston Texans offense and the forever-struggling Carolina Panthers.

    Jacksonville lost that game to Browning's Bengals, by the way. I'm not calling the Jags fugazi, but, like, c'mon. While Trevor struggled against some average-at-best competition, the Chiefs faced three teams with Super Bowl aspirations and the New York Giants. Not every 2-2 team is inherently worse than every 3-1 team. I'm predicting a relatively comfortable 27-17 victory for KC.

Can Browning's Bengals Bring Bummer Ending To KC's 2023?

When was the last time the vibes in Chiefs Kingdom felt this low? Losing a Super Bowl is frustrating, of course, but the Kansas City Chiefs performed impressively in practically every moment until the Big Game at the end of the season. I'm more thinking about fear than frustration, I suppose. With two games left in the season, the Chiefs already have six losses. The lack of fan confidence (at least this fan's confidence) entering this game against a backup QB and a team not expected to reach the playoffs tells you all you need to know about the Chiefs' vulnerability at this point.

The Cincinnati Bengals are one loss away from effectively ending their season. If Cincy wins their final two games and gets help from other 8-7 teams ahead of them in the Wild Card hunt, Jake Browning's Bengals could sneak into the playoffs. They're alive, but just barely; their chances are at or below 20%, depending on which proprietary stat you choose to use for a measuring stick. Chiefs recently lost to other desperate teams fighting for their playoff lives when they faced the Packers and Bills, so should Cincy scare KC today? The Raiders didn't scare anybody last week, and they embarrassed KC on Christmas.

Football can be weird. Raiders QB Aidan O'Connell posted an 88.8 QBR in his first meeting with the Chiefs this season, and the Raiders lost by 14. He just posted a 12.1 QBR on the Chiefs - on Christmas, at Arrowhead - and the Chiefs lost by six. This Christmas day, a fumble on a trick play and a pick-six occurred within seven seconds of game-time. Before ten seconds could run off the clock, the Raiders defense scored as much as the Chiefs would score all day. That's a testament to the occasional flukiness of football, but it's also more evidence that KC's offense has not figured out how to pull their team out of the fire when it matters most.

Mahomes still has his magical moments, but on paper, he looks like a totally different guy since the Week 8 disaster in Denver. He had a QBR higher than 64 in all of his first seven games of this season. Since Week 8, he's only posted a QBR above 61 once. Mahomes never took more than two sacks in any of his first seven games. Since then, he's been sacked three or more times in four different games.

Five of those sacks this season were allowed by Jawaan Taylor, who also leads the NFL in penalties with 17. L'Jarius Sneed, by the way, is tied for fourth with 10 penalties, making the Chiefs the only team in the league with multiple players in the top-10 in penalties drawn. For Taylor in particular, these penalties are beyond disappointing. He just penned a four-year, $80-million contract with the Chiefs last offseason. PFF gives him a 50.1 overall grade for his efforts in 2023. Since Taylor' effectiveness is so critical to the effectiveness of Mahomes - the most important man on the field whenever he's on the field - Taylor's struggles may be the biggest and most understated factor in the recent decline of KC's offense.

All of these are factors that I believe the Chiefs will overcome today, thanks in large part to the Bengals' struggles on defense. They allow the second-most yards-per-game average, despite the best efforts of defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo. KC's defense is still holding strong with the league's second-fewest total yards, passing yards, and total points-per-game allowed. I'll predict an ugly 17-13 victory for KC. Enjoy the game with people who love football, and enjoy all the new year with people who love you.