Old Narratives Regarding Raiders Rivalry Repeat

The narratives about this rivalry feel boring, but maybe that's because the Las Vegas Raiders being awful keeps the narrative the same. Most of the stats don't suggest they should be awful. The presumed upgrades at head coach and quarterback should definitely make them less awful. Still, there they are at 2-4 with a -48 point differential. They just beat the woeful Tennessee Titans last week, which is their first and only win since beating the New England Patriots 20-13 in Week 1.

Does all this make today's game one of the notorious "trap games" on the Chiefs schedule? I think it does, but just enough to ensure that KC did not take things lightly this week. I also think the psychological side of the game matters more when both teams are objectively good. While the Chiefs are finally bringing together the imposing receiver trio of Xavier Worthy, Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown, the Raiders are struggling to move the ball without constantly giving it to their opponent. Only three teams in the NFL have a turnover differential worse than Las Vegas' -4.

The idea that this is the time when KC may let off the gas and potentially lose a stinker also makes this game the perfect time for KC to make a point by dominating a divisional rival. The Raiders continue to be less than the sum of their parts, and the stats back that up consistently. Despite ranking 11th league-wide in total yards allowed, they rank 23rd in points allowed. Despite upgrading at quarterback and drafting a prodigious running back in the first round, only the Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans have scored fewer points per game. I know 12.5 points is a big, big spread, but I think it's getting worse than that. I'm predicting a 37-17 victory for Kansas City.

Allen Again Standing In the Way of Chiefs Chasing Championship History

I want to be the guy who does deep dives on the opposition's second-stringers, and sometimes I am, but today's story being told on the field revolves around the two historically great quarterbacks trying to reach the Super Bowl. Josh Allen's greatness is the only obstacle left for a Kansas City Chiefs team trying to reach their fifth Super Bowl in six years. Allen is either the MVP or the runner-up this season. A Bills team that many pundits expected to regress wound up tying their franchise record for regular season wins, thanks largely to Allen's poised performance and a ridiculously strong team turnover differential.

The Chiefs' turnover differential of +6 was bested by only nine teams in the league this season. The Bills led the league in turnover differential by a margin of eight. Their differential is precisely four-times Kansas City's. This huge disparity exists largely because Josh Allen reduced his interceptions from 18 in 2023 to just six this season. This improvement didn't cost Buffalo their ability to score a bunch of points, either; Buffalo's starters scored at least 30 points in 12 of their 16 regular season opportunities, and they've scored at least 40 in three of their last four. The only bright side for Chiefs fans here is that this Chiefs defense - especially in the playoffs - outclasses anything the Bills experienced this season.

KC's defense allowed the fourth-fewest points per game in the regular season. Buffalo did not play a team that allowed fewer. The Bills defeated the Chiefs earlier this season and scored 30, and when Buffalo faced the Detroit Lions' 7th-ranked scoring defense, Allen's offense put up 48. A key factor here was Detroit finishing that game with zero sacks. Josh has been incredible using his legs this season, but he won't get away with that as much today.

Steve Spagnuolo's defense sacked Houston's C.J. Stroud eight times last week. That came from six different Chiefs and included five sacks in the fourth quarter. Spags' unique prowess in sending blitzes that confuse opposing offenses is an intriguing skill to have when facing a quarterback who excels at stealing first downs with his legs when no passing options are available. It will be fascinating to see how Spagnuolo balances his clever blitz packages with limiting Allen's running skills. Since I believe in the other Hall of Fame-caliber talent doing what they always do in the playoffs, this Spags Vs. Allen chess match should be what decides today's winner.

Today's game should be a true nail-biter. The Bills will likely win the turnover battle. Josh Allen will invariably frustrate Chiefs fans everywhere by converting some crucial third or fourth downs using his scrambling skills. The connection between Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce will continue to be the greatest in NFL history, but Buffalo's desire to limit it could lead to the potential for a home run play to someone like Xavier Worthy or Hollywood Brown. All this should result in an all-time classic victory for our Chiefs, 30-27, in overtime. I hope you can enjoy all of it with people who love football and love you.

Steeler's Won't Sour Kansas City's Christmas

I'm not used to waking up on Christmas and watching Kansas City Chiefs football. It still feels weird, doesn't it? Last time around, things didn't turn out so great for the defending champs. KC lost on this day in 2023 to the Raiders, but they went on to never lose a game for the rest of that season and for another nine games into the next season. Here's to hoping the Chiefs can start a similar run without suffering a similar defeat today.

It's weird to experience live Chiefs football on Christmas, but live Chiefs football on a Wednesday is even weirder. This short week has compounded injury problems for both rosters. Jawaan Taylor and Chris Jones are listed as questionable for today's game. Pittsburgh's Ben Skowronek and Joey Porter Jr. are both out today, but emerging young receiver George Pickens will be back in action. A weakened Chiefs pass-rush could keep things closer than KC would like.

Thankfully for Chiefs Kingdom, the Chiefs still have the advantage against Pittsburgh and, to be fair, everyone else in the league when it matters most. Their third-down conversion rate on offense is now at 50.95%, a full 2% better than the rest of the league. Pittsburgh's defense allows the fifth-lowest third-down conversion rate to opponents this season, so each critical third-down moment for the Chiefs offense will be a strength-on-strength matchup. KC's defense, on the other hand, ranks 20th in opponents' third-down conversion rate. That's a subpar facet of the Chiefs defense which is objectively strong in most other statistical categories right now, which has resulted in the league's third-lowest points-per-game allowed. The 2024 Chiefs currently allow just 0.2 more points per game than the league-leading Los Angeles Chargers.

That impressive defense gave the Chiefs time to find their stride on offense while struggling through injuries. Now, it looks like that offense is finding its rhythm at just the right time. We just watched Hollywood Brown return and immediately make an impact in the passing game with five catches and eight targets. Xavier Worthy completed his current career high of seven passes in his second straight game with 11 targets. The Chiefs continue to get this offense fully operational before it's do-or-die against playoff teams with a proven ability to put a bunch of points on the board.

Another reason for confidence in a Chiefs win today is Patrick Mahomes' domination of the Steelers in an admittedly small two-game sample size. In those two games, Mahomes threw for 584 passing yards, nine touchdowns and no picks. His 148.2 Passer Rating in those two games is the best Rating he has against any team in the league. I like this Chiefs offense with Travis Kelce, DeAndre Hopkins, Xavier Worthy and Hollywood all healthy and involved, so I like the Chiefs in this game, 27-20. I truly hope you get a chance to enjoy the game and the holiday with people you love.