Chiefs-Chargers Rivalry Renewed While KC Tries to Keep Hope Alive

Last week's miserable defeat at the hands of the Houston Texans resulted in yet another ugly stat line for the most important player in Kansas City Chiefs history. Patrick Mahomes finished that sad day with a 19.8 Passer Rating. He's gone two weeks now without a Rating reaching 30. This sent me searching through his career Ratings and QBR's for each season, and just a quick look feels revealing.

The first thing I noticed was just how little Passer Rating and QBR seem to agree. If you only trust Passer Rating, Mahomes has been a mediocre QB more years than not. That clearly means you should absolutely not do that. His current Rating for this season is 91.2, which ranks 16th in the NFL. That's below the standard he sets, but it's remarkably similar to last season's Rating of 93.5, which ranked 17th. He also ranked 14th in Rating in 2023 with a 92.6. 

That data alone would indicate the presence of a consistently mediocre signal-caller, but ESPN's QBR algorithm disagrees. Patrick's QBR ranks 4th in the league right now. He finished at 8th over the last two seasons. That brings us to 2022, when a new, disturbing pattern emerges.

Mahomes was awesome in 2022 and 2020, and every measurable agrees with that. 2021 showed yet more disparity between Rating and QBR, when Mahomes was 15th in Rating and 5th in QBR. That season, however, is the only time in this amazing stretch from 2018 to 2022 that Mahomes did not finish a season ranked top-seven in both categories. Most of this production came with freakishly athletic receiver Tyreek Hill on the team and Eric Bieniemy coordinating the offense. Mahomes' incredible 2022 campaign happened without Tyreek.

Bienemy is currently the running backs coach for the Chicago Bears. The Bears average 152.6 rushing yards a game this season. They have the most potent running game in their conference and perhaps in the league. What a perfect compliment to Patrick that would be. For now, though, the questions about next season stay on the back-burner as long as KC has hope for a playoff berth in 2025. That all depends on KC's ability to overcome one of the league's strongest defenses when they face the Los Angeles Chargers at Arrowhead today.

The Chargers defense ranks fourth in total yards allowed per game and 10th in points allowed. They've tallied up more interceptions than any team aside from the Chicago Bears. The offense has been mostly average this season, thanks in part to numerous injuries to key parts of their offensive line, but they still rank 9th in rushing yards per game. Surprisingly, the highly talented Justin Herbert has the potential every week to be the team's biggest problem. He's even the reason I'm picking the Chiefs this week.

Despite having similar overall turnover differentials, with the Chargers at +1 and KC at -1, Herbert is the biggest liability L.A will have on the field today. Only Tua Tagovailoa and Geno Smith have thrown more than Herbert's 11 interceptions this season. The Chargers have a few impressive pelts on the wall after beating the Chiefs in Week 1 in Brazil, Denver in Week 3 and Philly in overtime last week, but they also suffered some embarrassing losses. Defeats at the hands of the Giants and Commanders, and double-digit defeats when facing Jacksonville and Indy all included at least one Justin Herbert interception. I'm predicting at least one more pick from Herbert as KC keeps the embers of hope warm by beating the Chargers 22-19.

Potential MVPs Meet Overseas as KC, Miami Face Off in Frankfurt

8:30 AM Central Time feels way too damn early for meaningful NFL football. Can't we just make the Europeans go to their stadium when it's proper football-time here in the country that we all know matters the most? The 6-2 Kansas City Chiefs face the 6-2 Miami Dolphins in Frankfurt, Germany at what seems like the crack of dawn. The Dolphins headed across the Pacific with well-earned confidence after beating three of their last four opponents by at least two touchdowns. The vibes for the Chiefs right now feel way, way different.

Kansas City just lost an ugly game to the Denver Broncos, thanks in large part to turning over the ball five times and finishing the game with a -4 turnover differential. Throughout the history of the NFL, teams win 2.6% of games when losing the turnover battle by four or more. Patrick Mahomes finished a game without a touchdown pass for the first time since 2021. The Chiefs haven't turned the ball over more than three times since October of '21. They haven't turned the ball over five times since that infamous 54-51 loss to the L.A Rams on November 19th, 2018.

I trust KC to at least limit the problems that plagued them last week when they face off with Miami today. The Chiefs haven't lost consecutive games since the second and third week of the '21 season. It's highly unlikely that we see Mahomes post another QBR anywhere close to his 42.5 from last week's stinker at Mile-High. Despite my very reasonable expectations of a cleaner game from the Chiefs, it's important to recognize that the Dolphins are a vastly more dangerous team than the Broncos. KC had reason to fear the Dolphins before losing Nick Bolton and finishing practice for the week without knowing Willie Gay's status for the game. Weaknesses based on those health issues, as well as the return of elite Miami cornerback Jalen Ramsey, amplified Chiefs Kingdom's sense of concern surrounding this game.

As fans, we already have the aforementioned reasons to worry, and I haven't even talked about the two potential league MVP's on the Dolphins roster yet. Tyreek Hill is on pace for one of the greatest seasons ever for a wide receiver. His resume for the NFL's Most Valuable Player award has become more and more of a talking point for fans worldwide as he gets deeper into the regular season with outstanding performances nearly every week. The guy passing to him also deserves credit for proving, at least to this point, that he is also worthy of being called elite. Tua Tagovailoa is among the three likeliest players to win MVP this year according to all seven sports-books measured by VegasInsider.com's recent report. Just like with the MVP betting odds, Mahomes and Tua both rank between first and third league-wide in passing yards, touchdown passes and total QBR this season. 

KC's secondary should give them the advantage as two of the best QB's in football face off in Frankfurt today. The Chiefs secondary continues to prove itself as one of the NFL's best, and I believe (and hope) that they'll be the difference-makers. L'Jarius Sneed, Trent McDuffie and Justin Reid in particular are among the league's most efficient at stopping opposing wide receivers. The aforementioned Dolphins corner Jalen Ramsey is still capable of being the league's absolute best at his position, but Miami's secondary as a whole has been unimpressive. KC's secondary holds their opponents to only 176.1 passing yards per game this season - the second-lowest average in football. The Dolphins' average of 221.5 passing yards allowed per game ranks 16th in that category.

I expect the Chiefs to limit their mistakes this week and play more like the prolific passing team we know they can be. Just remember that if the Chiefs can limit themselves to one Mahomes interception, one Chiefs receiver fumble after completing a catch and one Mecole Hardman muffed punt, they would still only suffer 60% of the self-inflicted damage they burdened themselves with last week. That game was clearly an improbably disaster that should not decide how the Chiefs are perceived moving forward. If this dynasty of a team can't earn a fan's trust, no team can.

While the Chiefs have earned the trust of the Kingdom, 'phins fans still cannot be so sure. Miami has played two teams that currently have winning records and been comfortably handled by both of them. Their wins all came against teams who have losing records at this point of the season and look destined for a top-five pick in next year's draft. Tyreek may scare the hell out of his former fans in KC today, but I'm predicting a thrilling 28-27 victory for the Chiefs.