KC's Offense Shows Growth While Trevor's Turnovers Terrorize Jags

     Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs offense experienced their most success of the season in their Week 4 victory over the currently crestfallen Baltimore Ravens. As his offense dropped 37 on Baltimore, Mahomes posted a Passer Rating of 124.8, which was 35 points better than his Ratings from any other game this season. It's his highest Passer Rating since Christmas. This brings his Passer Rating for the season up to 19th in the league, which may not sound great, but it's miles better than what we've seen from the signal-caller facing off with KC tonight. Jacksonville Jaguars franchise QB Trevor Lawrence ranks behind guys like Bryce Young, Geno Smith and the recently benched Russell Wilson at 30th place in Passer Rating this season.

    Only Geno, Joe Flacco and Jake Browning have thrown more interceptions than Lawrence so far. Trevor avoided a pick last week, but he's thrown at least one in three of his four games this season. Going back to last season, he's thrown at least one in nine of his last 11 games. Despite this, the Jags have a healthy 3-1 record and the league's best turnover differential at +9. That's two better than the second-place Pittsburgh Steelers and six better than the 8th-ranked Chiefs.

    The simple ability to play a clean game at quarterback defines entire eras for football franchises. Current evidence of this is easy to find. Before Week 5 began, Mahomes was one of only six QBs in the league who played all four games and only threw one interception. The only guy to do so without throwing any picks? Defending Super Bowl champ Jalen Hurts.

    While Trevor has a long history with turnover issues, the era of Jacksonville having an excellent turnover ratio is quite short; just last year, they finished the regular season with the fourth-worst turnover differential in the NFL. The Jags defense ranks fourth in points allowed this season, giving up just 18 points per game, so it won't be a cakewalk for KC's improving, evolving offense tonight. The Jags' defense looks strong, but it's only allowing one point fewer than KC's defense. It's also worth noting that the Jags have faced the Cincinnati Bengals when Jake Browning took most of the snaps for an injured Joe Burrow, a depleted San Francisco 49ers offense still led by a hobbling Brock Purdy, a struggling Houston Texans offense and the forever-struggling Carolina Panthers.

    Jacksonville lost that game to Browning's Bengals, by the way. I'm not calling the Jags fugazi, but, like, c'mon. While Trevor struggled against some average-at-best competition, the Chiefs faced three teams with Super Bowl aspirations and the New York Giants. Not every 2-2 team is inherently worse than every 3-1 team. I'm predicting a relatively comfortable 27-17 victory for KC.

Here's Why KC Will Bounce Back in Jacksonville

    Looks like the good times are over, Chiefs Kingdom. Go ahead and jump off the bus now. May as well find another team to cheer for. Our Kansas City Chiefs lost 21-20 to the Detroit Lions last week, and their opponents this Sunday look like a consistent playoff contender for years to come. A dark cloud hung over the Kingdom after that disappointing start, but despite what the haters may say, the sky will not fall.

    Look past the sting of this defeat and recognize that the Chiefs played without two of the team's three best players and still put themselves in position to win numerous times. Then, well-placed Patrick Mahomes passes bounced off receivers' hands, as Chiefs fans everywhere audibly and collectively groaned. Also recognize that the once-lowly Lions emerged as a legitimate winner late last season and showed up ready for their shot at the champs. Fortunately for KC, we should probably see Travis Kelce and Chris Jones back in action for Week 2. Those returns will be crucial against a Jacksonville Jaguars team with immeasurable desire to get revenge on the rivals who knocked them out of last year's playoffs.

    The Jags offense looks studly after the inclusion of Calvin Ridley and rookie Tank Bigsby, but their secondary still looks suspect. Last season, the Jags ranked 28th in passing yards allowed per game. The top three most-used cornerbacks and safeties for Jacksonville last season are slotted into the same spots on the depth chart this season. Jacksonville's secondary limited Colts QB Anthony Richardson in his NFL debut last week, but Patrick is not Anthony Richardson, and this is not his NFL debut.  While Jacksonville held Richardson to a 30.6 QBR and 79 Passer Rating, Mahomes finished last year's AFC Divisional Round faceoff with a 78.5 QBR and a 112.5 RTG. Just don't let Jags edge rusher extraordinaire Josh Allen ruin Kansas City's day; he sacked Richardson three times and hit him twice last week.

    I don't want to rain on the parade of a potential rivalry or be overly reductive here, but without improving the part of their team that was most vulnerable last season, the Jags put a ceiling on the amount of fear they can instill in the hearts of Chiefs fans. Calvin Ridley may look like a top-10 receiver against a Chiefs secondary that is by no means perfect, but I trust an angry, motivated Patrick Mahomes to make a statement at the expense of the Jaguars this Sunday. Trevor Lawrence and his offense could look really impressive in this game and still get outscored by double-digits thanks to the legendary tandem of a pissed-off Mahomes and the best tight end ever, Travis Kelce. I'm predicting a 34-24 Chiefs victory and a lot of back-tracking from football pundits prematurely predicting KC's demise.

Trap-Game Trevor's Red-Hot Jags Could Concern KC

Do-or-die Kansas City Chiefs football happens today, right here in KC, and the Chiefs are the betting favorite to win another Super Bowl. It doesn't get much better than this for Chiefs Kingdom. However, a prodigy fresh off a legendary comeback playoff win could end all that fun by dinner-time. The Jacksonville Jaguars just gained some serious momentum, and they've proven their toughness time and time again this season. After starting 2-6, the Jags found their footing and won their last six games.

Many of those wins came against legit competition. Since losing 27-17 to KC in Week 10, Jacksonville bounced back with wins over Baltimore, the Cowboys, the Jets in Week 16 and two over the Titans. Trevor Lawrence looked elite for the second half of the season and the second half of last week's victory over the Chargers. Unfortunately for him, the man on pace to be the greatest football player of all time stands between Trevor and a fairy tale championship run.

Mahomes-Lawrence comparisons will naturally steal attention away from the rest of the roster and coaching staff involved today, so let's keep in mind the other Chiefs putting their bodies on the line to directly and literally prop up Mahomes Magic. The Chiefs' offensive line did its job all season long by keeping Mahomes safe. Only the Lions and Bucs allowed fewer sacks in the regular season. Some of the credit clearly goes to Patrick's ability to escape pressure, but the coaching scheme and the offensive line synergized with Mahomes' skill-set to create one of the most potent offenses in this sport's entire history. Andrew Wylie and Trey Smith, along with Pro Bowlers Creed Humphrey, Joe Thuney and Orlando Brown Jr. all deserve love from the Kingdom for allowing this offense to reach such legendary heights.

All of that production on offense could still result in disappointment, however, if KC can't defeat the red-hot newcomers to AFC playoff relevancy. Jacksonville's offensive line also deserves credit for keeping their franchise QB safe this season, as they limited Lawrence's times sacked to the fifth-fewest in football. While the Chiefs ranked first in total yards, passing yards and points per game, the Jags ranked 10th in those categories, and as I mentioned before, they ended the regular season far better than they started it. This game has all the drama and flavor necessary to be one of this year's most memorable playoff games.

Either the Jags give KC a good scare and ultimately fall in thrilling fashion, or the Chiefs dominate. I believe those are the only two feasible outcomes to today's game. A Jags upset win is unlikely but possible if KC loses the turnover battle and finds other ways to shoot themselves in the foot. Barring a lopsided turnover margin, the Chiefs will overcome the Jags today. I'm predicting a 34-27 thriller that reminds Chiefs Kingdom just how fun this new era of AFC competition can be for the next decade.

Can Trap-Game Trevor Terrorize KC? Probably Not.

The Kansas City Chiefs' winning ways often leaves Chiefs Kingdom drunk on the power of success, but losing to the Colts earlier this year served as a sobering reminder of the old "any given Sunday" adage. It's hard for a Chiefs fan not to wince when they remember that their guys lost to a football team that fired their head coach mid-season and replaced him with a high school coach. Another reminder of KC's fallibility came last week when they barely survived at Arrowhead against the Tennessee Titans, who were led by a rookie QB that is noticeably not ready for a starting role. 

Another young quarterback brings his team to Kansas City today, and many say he has all the makings of a future MVP. For now, Jacksonville Jaguars centerpiece Trevor Lawrence is only middle-of-the-pack. Lawrence ranks 17th and 19th in Adjusted QBR and Passer Rating, respectively this year. His six interceptions matches Mahomes, but while Mahomes has thrown a league-leading 21 touchdown passes, Trevor has only 11.

The help of a legit run-game makes the Jags' offense formidable nonetheless. Only four guys in the league have more rushing yards than Travis Etienne Jr. right now. With him leading the way, Jacksonville ranks seventh league-wide in rushing yards per game. As we've mentioned here before though, KC's rushing defense isn't the punchline it used to be. The Chiefs allow the league's fifth-fewest rushing yards per game to their opponents. This has a lot to do with Patrick Mahomes leading the Chiefs offense to the highest points-per-game average in football, since Kansas City's opponents must often pass at a particularly high rate in hopes of catching up.

The Jags look like a remarkably average team on paper, and the Chiefs need wins against every average team left on their schedule in order to stay in the hunt for the AFC's #1 seed. I don't think Trap-Game Trevor overcomes the odds today, but I like the nickname because I'm pathetically in love with my own alliteration. I'm predicting a 31-17 win for KC.