Will Denver Give Season's Beating to KC on Christmas?

I expected a Christmas night game between the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs to be must-see TV. Now, I'm honestly more excited about watching basketball. In terms of sheer entertainment value, there's no contest between today's NBA action and today's Cowboys-Commanders game. I really don't understand how to ingest football as a fan of a non-competitive team, and I don't want to get used to it any time soon.
 
Since draft position is so vital to the future success of NFL franchises, fans of bad teams shouldn't even want victory in December. This leaves me and many other Chiefs fans in an odd mindset for tonight's game. Denver's fighting for the #1 seed in prime-time on Christmas. They have every reason to want this victory. The Chiefs have the rare and wonderful opportunity to draft near the top 10 for the first time since choosing the big-armed QB from Texas Tech that turned this team into a dynasty. This is a crazy statement, but it's also 100% true: the Chiefs' best-case scenario is to end their season with consecutive losses to the Broncos and Raiders.

It's hard to imagine the Chiefs scoring a bunch with their third-string quarterback against an elite Broncos defense still vying for top playoff seeding. KC's season average of 22.5 points per game ranks 20th in the league right now, but they averaged 22.6 last year, which was good for 15th in the league by the end of the regular season. Scoring in the NFL slows down in December, when the weather gets cold and defenses get more serious. I expect KC to struggle to score, while Denver coasts, so my holiday gift for you is a safe bet - go with the UNDER for total points at 47.5 for -430 on DraftKings. That means the Chiefs could lose 31-16 and still make you a little extra cash to burn on New Year's Eve.

I'm predicting a 24-10 defeat at the hands of Denver today. Remember that brighter days for the Chiefs are on the horizon, and remember that enjoying whatever we can with people who love football and love us is what really matters. Merry Christmas, happy holidays, and thanks for sticking with me here at The Report.

Chiefs Kingdom Should Embrace Failure Until 2026

Is this the lowest point in the Patrick Mahomes era of Kansas City Chiefs football? It certainly feels like it. The Chiefs have been eliminated from playoff contention, and the most important player in franchise history just blew out his knee. Positivity suddenly feels like a precious commodity in Chiefs Kingdom, but I'll try to help us see the silver linings.

Nine Chiefs were already ruled out for today's game against the Tennessee Titans in Nashville. All nine are real contributors that can use this week, and as many more as they want, to get themselves as healthy as possible for next season. Fans should feel the same way about anyone considered a healthy scratch between now and September. I hate that feeling of futility as much as the next Chiefs fan, but they have nothing to earn by winning until 2026.

One of those valuable Chiefs on the injury report is Trent McDuffie, who the Chiefs drafted 21st overall in 2022. That's the highest draft pick for the Chiefs since 2017, when they drafted a big-armed, reportedly unpolished quarterback from Texas Tech as the 10th overall pick. That means everybody the Chiefs drafted in the last ten seasons with a pick higher than 22nd is on pace to be a Hall of Famer. Another injection of talent like that could really stoke the flames in the furnace of this ongoing dynasty.

ESPN currently predicts the Chiefs' average draft position at 13.7. This gives KC the chance to draft someone who becomes a fundamental piece of the future. At the start of this month, PFF listed five different edge rushers in the top 17 of their projected draft. KC's defense struggled to pressure opposing QB's this year, while also allowing the fifth-highest conversion rate on third downs and giving up the seventh-most penalty yards to the opposition. I care way more about drafting the next great piece of the dynasty than I do about Gardner Minshew leading the Chiefs second-stringers to a win over the Titans. It feels weird to say that I hope KC loses, but I do, and I'm predicting a 20-13 defeat today.

Chiefs-Chargers Rivalry Renewed While KC Tries to Keep Hope Alive

Last week's miserable defeat at the hands of the Houston Texans resulted in yet another ugly stat line for the most important player in Kansas City Chiefs history. Patrick Mahomes finished that sad day with a 19.8 Passer Rating. He's gone two weeks now without a Rating reaching 30. This sent me searching through his career Ratings and QBR's for each season, and just a quick look feels revealing.

The first thing I noticed was just how little Passer Rating and QBR seem to agree. If you only trust Passer Rating, Mahomes has been a mediocre QB more years than not. That clearly means you should absolutely not do that. His current Rating for this season is 91.2, which ranks 16th in the NFL. That's below the standard he sets, but it's remarkably similar to last season's Rating of 93.5, which ranked 17th. He also ranked 14th in Rating in 2023 with a 92.6. 

That data alone would indicate the presence of a consistently mediocre signal-caller, but ESPN's QBR algorithm disagrees. Patrick's QBR ranks 4th in the league right now. He finished at 8th over the last two seasons. That brings us to 2022, when a new, disturbing pattern emerges.

Mahomes was awesome in 2022 and 2020, and every measurable agrees with that. 2021 showed yet more disparity between Rating and QBR, when Mahomes was 15th in Rating and 5th in QBR. That season, however, is the only time in this amazing stretch from 2018 to 2022 that Mahomes did not finish a season ranked top-seven in both categories. Most of this production came with freakishly athletic receiver Tyreek Hill on the team and Eric Bieniemy coordinating the offense. Mahomes' incredible 2022 campaign happened without Tyreek.

Bienemy is currently the running backs coach for the Chicago Bears. The Bears average 152.6 rushing yards a game this season. They have the most potent running game in their conference and perhaps in the league. What a perfect compliment to Patrick that would be. For now, though, the questions about next season stay on the back-burner as long as KC has hope for a playoff berth in 2025. That all depends on KC's ability to overcome one of the league's strongest defenses when they face the Los Angeles Chargers at Arrowhead today.

The Chargers defense ranks fourth in total yards allowed per game and 10th in points allowed. They've tallied up more interceptions than any team aside from the Chicago Bears. The offense has been mostly average this season, thanks in part to numerous injuries to key parts of their offensive line, but they still rank 9th in rushing yards per game. Surprisingly, the highly talented Justin Herbert has the potential every week to be the team's biggest problem. He's even the reason I'm picking the Chiefs this week.

Despite having similar overall turnover differentials, with the Chargers at +1 and KC at -1, Herbert is the biggest liability L.A will have on the field today. Only Tua Tagovailoa and Geno Smith have thrown more than Herbert's 11 interceptions this season. The Chargers have a few impressive pelts on the wall after beating the Chiefs in Week 1 in Brazil, Denver in Week 3 and Philly in overtime last week, but they also suffered some embarrassing losses. Defeats at the hands of the Giants and Commanders, and double-digit defeats when facing Jacksonville and Indy all included at least one Justin Herbert interception. I'm predicting at least one more pick from Herbert as KC keeps the embers of hope warm by beating the Chargers 22-19.

Will KC's Playoff Hopes Survive Tough Texans Test?

The Chiefs really bummed out the Kingdom by losing on Thanksgiving, but did it end their season? I can barely remember how it feels to be a fan of a team unlikely to reach the playoffs. The Kansas City Chiefs are having a legendary run of three straight Super Bowl appearances and seven straight seasons hosting the AFC Championship game, but they currently sit at the #10 seed in their conference.Tonight's do-or-die fight at Arrowhead involves another team still alive in the AFC playoff hunt but currently on the outside looking in, and they're a match-up nightmare for the Chiefs.

Linemen Trey Smith and Jawaan Taylor are listed on KC's injury report as doubtful for tonight's game. If Houston's offense can score a bunch today, the Chiefs' playoff hopes will die, because putting up 40 against this Texans defense isn't happening. Nobody allows fewer yards per game than the Texans this year. They pressure opposing quarterbacks at an alarming rate, and they've tallied up the fourth-most takeaways in football. It's up to KC's defense to improve upon recent unimpressive performances to keep the dream alive tonight.

The Chiefs defense ranks 27th in sacks per game. They have the fourth-fewest takeaways in the NFL after ranking around league-average all last season. Their allowed third-down conversion rate ranks 26th. All these issues were evident when KC lost last week's Thanksgiving game against Dallas due a ton of penalties and numerous missteps from the defense on second-half third-downs. That will end their season if it happens tonight. A victory tonight brings the likeliness of KC reaching the playoffs back up to slightly above 50%.

Aside from playing us again, the Chargers have to play the Eagles, Cowboys, Texans and Broncos. Indy has to play San Fran, Houston and two against Jacksonville. The Bills and Jags have easier paths, but still have work to do to ensure a better seed than Kansas City. Hope is still alive, and the roads to the playoffs are still numerous, as long as KC survives tonight's battle. I'm predicting a 23-20 victory for the Chiefs. To have no hope for the playoffs with over two weeks to go until Christmas would just feel wrong.