How will our 2-2 Kansas City Chiefs look when they take the field against the conference's other top dog? The 3-1 Buffalo Bills looked downright dominant in their last three weeks. Our Chiefs dropped two of three and made many fans wonder about their weaknesses. Unfortunately for Chiefs Kingdom, those weaknesses worth wondering about are weaknesses that tonight's opponent is built to exploit.
After losing to Pittsburgh in Week 1, Buffalo has scored 118 points and allowed just 21. They've shut out two of their last three opponents. Buffalo's offense scores the second-most points per game in the NFL. This compliments a strong defense that attacks opposing quarterbacks, which is clearly something Kansas City struggles with this season. Only three teams average fewer sacks per game than the Chiefs, and only five teams average more sacks per game than the Bills.
It's an all-around matchup nightmare for Kansas City. Buffalo's strengths can theoretically limit KC's strengths and exploit their weaknesses. The Bills rank 9th league-wide in yards per rush attempt, and nobody allows more yards per rush to opponents than our Kansas City Chiefs. While the Chiefs are still 6th in yards per pass attempt, Buffalo has allowed the fewest yards per pass attempt in the league this season. The Bills also have the best turnover differential at +7, and only four teams have a worse differential than the Chiefs' -3.
It looks bad for the Chiefs when seen from this perspective, but understanding the level of competition each team has played against alters that perspective entirely. The Bills faced off against Pittsburgh, Miami, Washington and Houston. The 2-2 Washington Football Team is the only team Buffalo has faced this season that has won more than one game. The Bills truly have not been tested, and the hungry, hard-to-stop Chiefs will be miles better than anyone on Buffalo's schedule so far. Kansas City, on the other hand, has played against three playoff-worthy 3-1 teams...and the Philadelphia Eagles.
Picking a winner this week is no easy task. It's difficult to determine how much the differences in each teams' schedule affect their statistical rankings. No matter who Buffalo has played this year, my eyes tell me they're a team with a strong rushing attack and secondary. Because of the aforementioned clashes of weaknesses and strengths in Buffalo's favor, I have to predict a 30-27 Bills victory. Still, it won't be stunning if Patrick Mahomes pulls of something magical and KC gets it done. I'll spend my night hoping for that magic and hoping that my predicting is totally wrong.
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