Today is not the day for the Kansas City Chiefs to let their guard down. The 8-4 Miami Dolphins enter this game hungry to prove themselves and add a victory over the champs to their resume. How scared should Chiefs Kingdom really be of Tua, or perhaps more accurately, of this Dolphins defense?
Starting at noon today, we'll see the #2 scoring offense in the NFL facing off against the league's #2 scoring defense. We'll also see perhaps the best cornerback in football in Miami's Xavien Howard lining up against the best deep threat in football in KC's Tyreek Hill. Facing off against an excellent secondary could translate to big games for Chiefs pass-catchers that aren't playing the role of #1 and #2 wide receiver. That means the effectiveness of Travis Kelce and Mecole Hardman could make or break the Chiefs offense today. While elite talent forces the Chiefs to adjust their offensive scheme, a history-changing global crisis will alter Miami's plan on offense.
COVID-19 is sadly blame for Miami's serious disadvantage against our Chiefs today. Said virus rendered two of Miami's three top running backs unable to play, and the third is sidelined with a shoulder injury. That clearly gives our Chiefs a major advantage in the hours to come, but this Dolphins team wins games they should not. Miami's Week 8 win over the legit Los Angeles Rams is my main piece of evidence.
Rams pressure forced a Tua fumble early in this midseason meeting that came after Miami's bye week and represents the beginning of the Tagovailoa Era for the 'Phins faithful. A Jared Goff pick shortly thereafter gave Miami the ball and good field position, and this led to Tua's first career TD pass. Then, with the game still tied, Myles Gaskin fumbled on first down within 10 yards of his own endzone. This definitely doesn't sound like the description of a game that the Dolphins won by multiple possessions, but it happened. Miami's defense forced four turnovers from Jared Goff, and Jakeem Grant ran back an 88-yard punt for a Dolphins touchdown. Every Dolphins drive in the second half of that game resulted in a punt, yet they beat the Rams by 11.
The Dolphins had a healthy Gaskin and a healthy Matt Breida that day, but Tua and that tandem combined for only 60 rushing yards. It wasn't a strong running game that helped Miami defeat one of the league's best that week. Turnovers were the reason Miami pulled that one off, and they're now tied with three other teams for the fourth-best turnover differential in the NFL. KC's +11 differential ties them with Pittsburgh for the league's best. Enjoy the fact that the Chiefs' trajectory still points to greatness, but prepare yourself for a close game today.
Prepare to be upset when Tua scrambles and makes plays by exploiting the Chiefs' imperfect core of linebackers. Prepare for impressive pass-catching tight end Mike Gesicki to frustrate the entire Kingdom by helping Tua do so. I think that duo will be enough to keep things competitive today, but I also think a well-prepared Chiefs team should beat these Dolphins more often than not. I predict a hard-fought 30-24 victory for the Chiefs. If Miami's new golden boy at QB is the real deal, this will serve as only Scene 1 in the long, enjoyable story of Patrick vs. Tua.
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