The Kansas City Chiefs face off with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Florida this afternoon. We can expect excessive screen-time spent comparing the top-shelf quarterbacks facing off, but the pressure to outperform one another is nothing compared to literally dealing with pressure, especially when it's applied by a strong NFL defense.
Both teams apply pressure on opposing quarterbacks on over 25% of dropbacks, giving both teams a Pressure % in the top ten league-wide. Advanced stats indicate that Mahomes is around league-average against pressure, but Tom becomes one of the worst passers in football. Brady should continue this trend today when he faces a secondary with plenty to prove.
The Chiefs still rank eighth in passing yards allowed per game, but nobody on that defense can be too ecstatic about their last two weeks. Everything we know about Tyran Mathieu suggests he'll be seething. I believe the leader of that secondary will help them bounce back after allowing 310 and 275 passing yards to Teddy Bridgewater and Derek Carr, respectively. More importantly, the Chiefs gave up 31 points to consecutive opponents, which they haven't done since that game against the Rams in 2018.
Expect a fired-up Tyran to reap revenge and ruin Tom Brady's day. Both he and KC's defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will relish this opportunity to stifle Tampa Bay's gameplan. Disrupting the Buc's rhythm on offense is crucial because, believe it or not, this Brady guy is pretty good at winning football games.
A quick look at common opponents among these teams could concern some fans in Chiefs Kingdom. Tampa Bay has won all five games against teams that KC already faced this season. The Chiefs snuck by the Panthers 33-31, but Tampa beat Carolina twice already, and they won by 13 and 14 points. The Bucs also took care of the Raiders 45-20 with the help of Brady's best performance of the year.
When he's on, Tom and his team still look Super Bowl-caliber. When he's off, which is admittedly rare until recently, Brady looks like a liability.
Brady began his latest game against the Saints with four straight 3-and-outs, and he gave away a chance for a comeback with two late picks against the Rams last week. Tampa Bay is 1-4 when they lose the turnover ratio, so Tom's turnovers may wind up costing them the division. Also, Brady is 0 for 19 in his last four games when throwing the ball 20 or more yards. I don't need to double-check the stats before I tell you that Patrick Mahomes isn't having that problem.
31-23, Chiefs.
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