I already know I'll be a mess of emotions today, whether or not our Kansas City Chiefs can exorcise some demons and win their first divisional round home playoff game in franchise history. The Indianapolis Colts offer Chiefs Kingdom plenty to be afraid of while also leaving fans confident about certain elements of this KC squad. Before I get emotional, I'll take a look at what to fear and what to feel good about today.
A combination of Andrew Luck, a revamped offensive line and a recently stout defense are what got the Colts to this point. These pieces allowed Indy to win nine of their last 10 regular season games and pound the Texans in Houston. Andrew Luck started in all 16 regular season games this year behind a drastically improved O-line and finished with career highs in season Quarterback Rating and QBR. Luck's effectiveness kept Indy in the playoff hunt through the second half of the season. The only time either quarterback threw more interceptions than touchdowns this year is when Patrick Mahomes had two picks and no TD's against Jacksonville.
Luck didn't experience this level of success behind his offensive line from last year, though. The Colts upgraded here big-time in the last draft by picking second team All-Pro Quenton Nelson in the first round and Braden Smith in the third. Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders agree that the Colts have a top-five O-line, while KC's is just middle-of-the-pack. Indy's pass protection ranks second league-wide, and they allowed the fewest sacks of any team in football.
Despite all the success on Luck's side of the ball, Indy also wouldn't have reached this tournament without impressive contributions from their defense. This squad held four teams below 10 points in the regular season, including a shutout against a hot Dallas Cowboys squad in Week 15. Limiting KC's star tight end is always important for the Chiefs' opponents, and perhaps nobody in the league has more potential to successfully defend Travis Kelce than emerging star Darius Leonard. This studly rookie linebacker is a huge part of why pundits nationwide started saying that Indy has one of the league's best defenses.
However, that trendy take isn't perfect. In their last ten regular season games, the Colts picked up nine wins to barely grab the last spot in the playoffs. Seven of these wins came against the Bills, Raiders, Jags, Titans, Dolphins and Giants. Simply put, those teams do not have good quarterbacks. Your quarterback, the undisputed King of Chiefs Kingdom, just finished his first full regular season as an NFL QB, and he gave us one of the three greatest seasons in NFL QB history.
This same Colts defense that many expert analysts are so high on gave up 27 points to the Giants, 28 to the Raiders, 38 to the New England Patriots, 34 to Cincy and 42 to the mighty New York Jets. The Colts have been good lately, sure, but they've often been good against QB's that are average or worse.
That's far from the only reason to feel good about your Chiefs today. Limiting Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill's effectiveness is as difficult as it is important. Kelce has at least five catches in every game since Week 1. He ranks second this season in total catches, total yards and yards per game. Hill has the fourth-most receiving yards and fifth-highest yards per carry average among anyone in the league and the highest on all remaining playoff squads.
Indy does a great job protecting their QB in passing situations, but both teams excel in this area. KC's front line allowed the fifth-best protection and the fifth-fewest sacks allowed during the regular season. The Chiefs should also have the edge regarding turnovers. Kansas City forced more fumbles than all-but three NFL teams, and only three NFL teams fumbled the ball fewer times. KC's overall give-take differential of +9 is the sixth-best in football, while Indy ranks 13th.
KC led the league in regular season yards per game, despite ranking just 16th in the NFL in rushing yards per game. Indy's running game seemed legit against the Texans last week, but over the year, they average only 107.4 rushing yards per game, which ranks 20th league-wide. Luck's success running this apparently high-flying offense is also deceptive. Luck's regular season performance seemed impressive, but he's usually just "dinkin' and dunkin'".
The Colts completed only 41 plays yielding 20 or more yards this season, which is the fourth-lowest total in football. Kansas City did this 65 times to lead the league. Mahomes' 8.8 yards per passing attempt is second only to Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Luck's 7.2 ranks him 23rd. This year's Chiefs defense struggles mightily against the short-to-intermediate passing attack, but at least the 70-yard heart-breaker pass plays are less likely today.
The coach and the quarterback matter even more than usual in playoff match-ups. Andy Reid is better than Frank Reich. Mahomes, right now, is better than Andrew Luck and perhaps every other player in football. A combination of nasty weather and the NFL's greatest home crowd guarantees that the atmosphere at Arrowhead will be intense. Despite KC's shortcomings, I cannot predict the #6 seed to handle this situation well. I think the Chiefs make history today and beat the Colts 33-31 in a classic.
The "do or die" era of Patrick Mahomes' career begins today, Chiefs Kingdom. For devoted fans, playoff games inflict a certain kind of enjoyable illness. My stomach churns. My heart races like I'm already late for something very important. I did not sleep well last night. I never do before moments like this. This unusual and seemingly unwarranted level of stress is wonderful. It is a unique moment in which something in our heads knows that the stress we're feeling doesn't come from life-threatening responsibility but instead from passion - the passion we have for a team that will soon either etch their names in franchise history with a victory or end their season in defeat. Please remember to enjoy that feeling today, Kingdom, regardless of the outcome.
Doug LaCerte writes about Chiefs stuff, Royals stuff and enjoys anti-Raiders memes on Twitter @DLaC67.
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