Steelers Can't Scare KC

My confidence in the Kansas City Chiefs winning at Arrowhead Stadium tonight grows as I look further into the Pittsburgh Steelers’ 2016 schedule. Sure, the Steelers won their last seven games in the regular season, but two of those wins were against the Cleveland Browns, and only one was against a 2016 playoff team. The only playoff teams Pittsburgh beat this season were the Chiefs and the New York Giants – a Wild Card team that lost by 25 in the first round of the playoffs. That is the unabridged list of Pittsburgh's impressive regular season wins. Seriously, the Steelers managed to win just three games against winning teams. They beat the 8-7-1 Washington Redskins in Week 1, then they beat up the Chiefs in Week 4 and defeated the Giants in early December. That’s it. Embarrassing KC was the high-point of Pittsburgh's regular season.

By the way, if we want to put any stock in that Week 4 Chiefs loss, when Pittsburgh crushed KC 43-14, then we must do the same with Pittsburgh's 34-3 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 3. The Eagles went on to claim a losing record and last place in their division this season, while KC only lost games against winning teams. We can forget those fluky failures in the early season for both teams, as the mentality and makeup of both squads is undoubtedly different now that it’s playoff-time.

After that win against KC and an easy victory over the Jets, the Steelers faced the toughest stretch of their schedule. They needed to travel to Miami to face the Dolphins, and then head back home to play the New England Patriots. Then, they traveled to Baltimore for a heated rivalry game, and then finally hosted the Dallas Cowboys in Week 10. Pittsburgh lost by 15 in Miami, lost to the Pats by 11 at Heinz Field, lost by a touchdown in Baltimore and lost 35-30 to Dallas. When the Steelers faced consecutive legit opponents, they started losing like losing was cool. When KC faced their toughest stretch of this year’s schedule – facing Denver, Atlanta and Oakland in consecutive weeks – the Chiefs managed to win every game.

When you look at the good teams KC already defeated this year, it seems clear that beating the Steelers is possible for the 2016 Chiefs. This team already played a prolific offense in the Atlanta Falcons, and KC limited that offense just enough to sneak away with a win in the Georgia Dome. The Chiefs already played three games against teams with top-3 sacks totals this year, and neither the Broncos nor the Panthers could stop KC from achieving victory. The Chiefs have seen defending Super Bowl champs, current Super Bowl contenders and numerous elite offenses, and KC proved they could persevere every time.

That should scare fans in the Steel City, but it’s the balance of this Pittsburgh team that should scare fans in Chiefs Kingdom. Kansas City must limit the production of the league’s best wide receiver, arguably its best running back and one of NFL history’s most underrated QBs. Eric Berry's ability to jump up a level and act like an extra linebacker on running plays makes his effectiveness against Pittsburgh's Le'Veon Bell critical to KC's success. The snaps when Antonio Brown lines up against Marcus Peters won’t terrify me, but every snap when it’s Brown on Steven Nelson will get hearts racing in Kansas City tonight.

Whoever runs the ball with more success will most likely win the game (depending on turnovers, as usual.) While we’ve often discussed KC’s struggles with stopping solid running backs this year, Pittsburgh isn’t the run-stuffing juggernaut they used to be, either. The Steelers D ranks 13^th in rushing yards allowed per game this year, and the Chiefs allowed a frighteningly high 121.1 rushing yards per game, which is better than only six teams in the NFL. No team that allowed a higher average than KC reached the playoffs.

That doesn’t bode well for the Chiefs, but KC’s offense will attempt to limit Pittsburgh’s offense simply by keeping them off the field. That means winning the time of possession battle, and that means the Chiefs must also run the ball successfully to keep this game close. This is why Spencer Ware’s play tonight is so integral to how this game plays out at Arrowhead.

Pittsburgh’s defense allowed 127 yards and two TDs to LeGarrette Blount in their loss to New England, not to mention 204 yards and two TDs to Miami’s Jay Ajayi. Cowboys’ rookie sensation Ezekiel Elliot also pounded Pittsburgh for 114 yards and two TDs. Unfortunately, Spencer Ware isn’t experiencing the kind of success we’re seeing from Zeke or Ajayi, but this bye week gives the Kingdom reasons to believe he’ll play well tonight. Andy Reid gets an extra week to prepare and an extra game to analyze, while Ware’s body enjoys an extra week of rest. If early-2016 Spencer Ware shows up to play tonight, he becomes a crucial component to KC’s game-plan. Even without a solid night from Ware, a combination of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce is tough for any team on the planet to defend.

We’ll have numerous Hall of Fame-level play-makers on the field at any given time tonight, which makes this a thrillingly unpredictable game. I can confidently predict a wet, raucous Arrowhead Stadium crowd that’s hungry for greatness and thirsty for revenge. The Chiefs will survive a memorable mud-fight tonight by the score of 27-23, and my vocal chords will ache for a week.

Doug LaCerte occasionally does Twitter stuff @DLaC67, and he still has Facebook. 

Regular Season Stats Analysis: Points Scored

The 2016 regular season is officially in the rear-view mirror for fans in the Kingdom, and that means it’s time to analyze the ever-livin’ out of those regular season stats. Your Kansas City Chiefs rank 20^th in the NFL in yards per game, but they rank 13^th in total points per game. Five of the 11 other teams with a playoff berth this year averaged fewer points per game than the Chiefs' 24.3. However, four of the NFL’s five highest-scoring offenses belong to Super Bowl contenders.

The Panthers, Cardinals, Pats, Steelers and Seahawks ranked #1-5 in points per game last year, in that order (with Pittsburgh and Seattle tied.) Each of those teams went to the playoffs and won at least their first game. This indicates that a top-shelf offense strongly correlates with playoff success, but it doesn't necessarily correlate with championships. We need only remember that none of the aforementioned offensive juggernauts won it all in 2015. Last year's Super Bowl-winning Denver Broncos ranked 19th with 22.2 points/game in 2015. They defeated the Panthers, the team that led the league with a 31.2 points-per-game average.

Three AFC playoff teams finished this regular season scoring more points per game than KC. Odds say the Steelers, who rank 10th league wide with 24.9 points per game, will face KC at Arrowhead on January 15th. If the Steelers lose, the Raiders, who rank 7th with 26 points, still need third-string QB Connor Cook to win a playoff road game against Houston today to earn another shot at the Chiefs this year. The New England Patriots, a fearsome foe looming in the distance as KC's potential opponent in the AFC Championship game, rank 3rd in the league with 27.6 points per game.

The two teams presumably standing in KC’s way to a Super Bowl appearance – Pittsburgh and the Pats – are the only other clubs in the AFC with better regular season offensive numbers than KC. If Pittsburgh takes care of business today, KC will face the Steelers at Arrowhead on the 15^th. The last time Pittsburgh traveled to KC was the only time the Chiefs lost a game by more than one possession this year. You better believe the Kingdom will be starving for sweet revenge if we get that chance.

Doug LaCerte apparently has a Twitter account @DLaC67, and he still has Facebook.

How Dorsey's Drafting Helped KC to Current Playoff Position

Hank Stram and Andy Reid are the only coaches to ever lead three different Kansas City Chiefs teams to 11-win seasons. Only Stram and Marty Schottenheimer made it happen twice. Andy deserves a lot of love from Chiefs Kingdom, but we must also remember to appreciate the general manager who set up the entire organization for success. John Dorsey spent more than a decade developing his draft-scouting skills in Green Bay, and his expertise in that field has given KC a foundation any team on the planet can admire.

Just look at these insane draft classes:

In 2013, Dorsey drafted Eric Fisher in the first round. Fisher developed into KC's starting left tackle and is now a 2016 Pro Bowl alternate. Most importantly, Dorsey knew to draft a lineman who could fill Branden Albert's shoes once he left after the '13 season. Dorsey then picked Travis Kelce, who somehow fell to the third round. Seems like that worked out okay, too.

The Chiefs had several holes to fill in 2014, but their GM could only help with one of the draft's first 86 picks. Following a year when Justin Houston and Tamba Hali recorded 11 sacks each, Dorsey drafted another edge-rushing linebacker in Dee Ford. After Houston's rehab from knee surgery and the steady decline of a quickly aging Tamba, the emergence of Dee Ford gave KC's defense new life this year. Without him, the Chiefs may still be looking for their next playoff berth.

Even though Dorsey is responsible for drafting Aaron Rodgers, Clay Matthews and the other studs mentioned in these previous paragraphs, KC's 2015 draft class could prove to be his greatest drafting accomplishment yet. KC's GM chose Marcus Peters in the first round. Peters is on par for a Hall of Fame career at this admittedly early stage, and the Chiefs urgently needed secondary help, so that decision deserves an A+.

Dorsey then picked guard Mitch Morse in the second round to shore up KC's flawed offensive unit. Morse has played 100% of the Chiefs' 963 offensive snaps in 2016. According to some awesome statsmanship from the Star's Terez A. Paylor, the combination of Fisher, Morse, Mitchell Schwartz, Laurent Duvernay-Tardif and Zach Fulton allowed one quarterback hit, four pressures and zero sacks against the league's #1 defense in sacks when the Chiefs beat up the Broncos two weeks ago. That kind of dominance was accomplished against the defending Super Bowl champs that needed a win against an old rival on Christmas night to keep their playoff hopes alive. KC’s offensive line continues to step up when it matters most, and Dorsey’s draft picks are pillars of that part of the team.

Injuries to KC’s defense also highlighted Dorsey’s winning strategy of drafting for depth in 2016. 3^rd-round pick Steven Nelson, 4^th-round pick Ramik Wilson, 5^th-round pick D.J. Alexander and 6^th-round pick Rakeem Nunez-Roches all played a part in the current playoff push when other Chiefs defenders lost time to injury. Alexander also proved to be a special teams prodigy, which made him a Pro Bowl alternate.

Throw in Chris Conley – a vital part of the passing attack moving forward – and we’re talking about at least seven Chiefs drafted just last year who made an impact for the 2016 Chiefs. That’s how Dorsey helped give the Kingdom hope for a Super Bowl.

Doug LaCerte still struggles to remember he has a Twitter account @DLaC67, and he really only uses his Facebook to shill these posts.

How KC Can Claim the AFC West in Cali Today

Our Kansas City Chiefs hope to wrap up the regular season with a win over the cellar-dwelling Sandy Eggo Chargers this afternoon. On most weeks, I would think of the Chargers as "New England Light", since they're a very similar, but less-effective team. Today, they're without their top-ten running back Melvin Gordon, but it’s still hard to tell how the Chargers will respond to losing against the Cleveland Browns last week. I can't tell you if this 5-10 squad will get mad and play well or get sad and pack it in today. This could be the Chargers’ final game in San Diego after all, so they could still be psyched into playing this game like it’s important to them.

KC’s ineffectiveness against the run would’ve been key in this article if not for Gordon’s hip injury, but the lack of their starter makes the Chargers’ rushing attack less-than-scary. Gordon’s contributions gave him the 10^th-highest rushing yards total in the NFL and the 8^th-ranked yards per game average. Even with him healthy, San Diego ranked 27^th in rushing yards per game. The Chargers can only successfully run the ball in a certain context, and that context is handing the ball to Melvin Gordon.

Philip Rivers helped the Bolts become the 6^th-ranked passing offense in the league, but KC has already beaten the #9 Raiders (twice), #7 Colts, #3 Falcons and #1 Saints. Rivers can still have a tremendous game and be beaten, and none of his receiving options are outstanding right now. Tyrell Williams leads the team with 989 receiving yards, which ranks 17^th among all NFL receiving options. Dontrelle Inman, the #2 threat on San Diego’s roster, ranks 50^th league-wide.

Despite KC having a clear advantage, today’s game is still tough to predict. The Chiefs' 31 total takeaways make for the league's highest total, but San Diego's 27 takeaways ranks 4th. If KC is on the wrong side of the turnover ratio today, the Chargers can shorten the game with short passes, limiting KC's chances on offense and ultimately threatening the Kingdom's chances at a division title this year. Despite the Chiefs being forced to play in the terrifying atmosphere and abhorrent weather of San Diego, I think the Kingdom rings in the New Year with a 30-23 victory. We’ll dig deeper into playoff drama once we know who and when KC plays next.

Doug LaCerte sometimes uses Twitter @DLaC67, and he still has Facebook.