Sunday, December 10, 2017

AFC West Up for Grabs During 2017's Final Raiders Week

The final Raiders Week of 2017 culminates in a crucial Week 14 face-off. A win for the Oakland Raiders keeps their playoff hopes alive, while also putting Kansas City's playoff future in question. so the Chiefs' most hated rival will be as desperate as ever to win at Arrowhead today.

At least KC won't worry about facing a dominant running game. The Raiders' Marshawn Lynch isn't even in the league's top-20 backs any more. Oakland's 93.3 rushing yards per game is the NFL's eighth-lowest, so limiting the run and forcing some incomplete passes could give the Chiefs an advantage through time of possession which might give them a chance. Sadly, I cannot have blind faith that KC's defense, namely its defensive coordinator, will adjust enough to win today.

Bob Sutton's stubbornness or perhaps ineptitude when it comes to altering his defense could be the biggest factor in KC's collapse this season. His defense can't get consistent pressure on opposing QB's, but Sutton refuses to blitz consistently enough to create pressure. The Chiefs secondary commonly gets burnt as the QB stays comfy in an undisturbed pocket, while Sutton's gameplan doesn't allow for Justin Houston or anyone else to consistently incite fear. I'd be thrilled to see consistent, heavy, confusing blitzing against Derek Carr today, and I refuse to be upset if he reacts smoothly to burn the Chiefs for a timely touchdown. I'll just be glad that someone forced the opposing QB to make a big play while under serious pressure, because the KC defense we've seen for the vast majority of this season simply cannot do that.

Health issues with KC's best edge rushers have made this difficult this season. I get that. If something doesn't change soon though, our Chiefs won't even make the playoffs.

On the flip-side, KC's offense excelled last week under recently tweaked coaching. Matt Nagy's play-calling led to numerous huge gains through the air and more than enough total yardage and points to win that game. Let's hope Andy Reid sees the difference this made and reflects on what something similar could do for KC's defense. This brings me to my sadder-than-usual predictions for the week.

1. We have a playoff roster here in KC. The reasons for this tailspin revolve around the coaching staff. If Sutton sells out to pressure Derek Carr, he'll deserve credit for making a crucial change. If he doesn't, I'll continue to complain about him incessantly. I predict that KC will win this game if they hit Carr four or more times and sack him at least twice. I also predict that this will not happen. I also predict being really happy about being wrong if I'm wrong about that.

2. With Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree both playing, and Marcus Peters and Dee Ford out, the Chiefs secondary seems to be outmatched today. I predict that the Chiefs allow 275 or more passing yards to their most hated rival.

3. Partly because Oakland induces the league's fewest turnovers, I predict another solid, clean game from KC's offense, thanks also to more savvy-but-conservative Matt Nagy play-calling. This still won't be enough to overcome the pounding that Oakland's passing game can inflict on KC's weakened secondary today. The Chiefs will lose another close one late, 27-24, and once again leave Chiefs Kingdom restless.

Doug LaCerte has a Facebook page and enjoys the occasional anti-Derek Car meme on Twitter @DLaC67.

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