It's been so long since your Kansas City Chiefs faced the Dallas Cowboys that one of the starting QB's from their last face-off is calling the game for CBS this time around. We'll see two of the league's five highest-scoring offenses today, and a couple average-at-best defenses, so it's shaping up to be an action-packed afternoon in Dallas. Should the Chiefs Kingdom feel disrespected by the 2.5 points Vegas is giving KC this week?
At the very least, Chiefs fans have the right to be irritated by all the talk about how awful their squad's defense is this season. Comparing the Cowboys defense to KC's provides further evidence that the Chiefs D still epitomizes "bend, don't break". Despite allowing more yards per game than all-but-two teams in the league, KC actually allows fewer points per game than Dallas this season. The Cowboys' 324.9 yards allowed per game is 13th in the NFL, but they give up an average of 23 points each week. The Chiefs' opponents average 22.5 points per game this year. I kept this in mind while I whipped up today's three predictions:
1. KC's well-known susceptibility to star running backs presumably made Bob Sutton sleep restlessly this week, but I trust him....sorta. I think KC's defensive strategy will be tweaked to limit Ezekiel Elliot, which will leave the Kansas City secondary with even more problems than usual. I expect the Chiefs to hold Zeke close to his 98.6 yards-per-game average today, but I predict that this allows Dak Prescott to rack up at least 260 yards through the air - over 35 more than his average this season.
2. Kansas City has the league's lowest red zone touchdown scoring percentage over the last three weeks. Over the entire 2017 season, the Chiefs rank 19th league-wide with a 50% red zone touchdown scoring percentage (a statistic for which even an acronym sounds too wordy). Dallas ranks 5th in that same stat. For KC to overcome the 'boys today, this must change. I predict that whichever team leads in this stat by the end of the game will win.
3. Andy must feel a strong desire to prove himself and this offense's legitimacy today in Dallas. Last week's game was won largely because of turnovers, and KC's offense stalled in important moments time and time again (0-3 in the red zone and 2-12 converting third downs, according to B.J Kissel at kcchiefs.com). Dallas is 15th in both rushing yards and passing yards allowed, so Reid's offensive game plan should be a balanced attack involving heavy doses of his three star playmakers.
The Chiefs should score some points today, but it will come down to which of these legit squads performs best in the clutch. I suppose it always comes down to this in any well-played game. Those numbers regarding the Chiefs' recent ineffectiveness in the red zone seem damning. I dread the thought of KC's defense facing yet another elite running back whose team consistently gives him the rock when the opposition clearly can't stop him. Injury concerns with KC's offensive line, paired with the fact that Dallas features a healthy, top-five offensive line themselves, also make it difficult for me to predict a victory for KC today.
This version of the Kansas City Chiefs is legit. If they lose this afternoon, it shouldn't make you think any differently. For all the reasons I just gave, that could definitely happen. I'm still predicting a win for KC, though.
The 2.5-point spread makes perfect sense, but I think the Chiefs will once again win the turnover battle to help them win the game. KC already faced three teams who give up fewer points per game than Dallas, and they scored at least 29 against each of them. Despite giving up tons of yardage to the opposition, the Chiefs held the Patriots' league-leading offense to 27 points. The power rankings all call the Philadelphia Eagles the league's best team right now, and KC held them to 20 points. The Redskins couldn't score more than that, and the [several expletives removed] Steelers won while scoring only 19. It's time for KC to prove themselves against a top-shelf team in a clutch moment, deep in the season, when team identities start to solidify. Against the odds-makers' better judgement, I predict a thrilling 29-26 victory for the Chiefs. @ me about how stupid I am any time. Isn't @ me a cool thing that cool people say now? That's a thing, right?
Doug LaCerte still neglects his Facebook page, but you can @ him or whatever @DLaC67.
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