The 2-2 Houston Texans host your undefeated Kansas City Chiefs just hours from now, and it's shaping up to be a close, tense game. Vegas considers KC the favorite by 2 or 2 1/2 points, with a spread between 44 and 45. If all goes well, fans in Kansas City could enjoy the Chiefs winning against a tough opponent the same night they enjoy the New York Yankees getting swept out of the postseason. Loving your hometown teams is really the only better sports-inspired emotion than hating the Yankees.
The Chiefs come into NRG Stadium tonight with the only unblemished record in football, but they're once again facing a serious challenge in a primetime game. These two teams have history, and they both have great potential to end the regular season as one of the league's best teams. Let's look over the biggest factors in tonight's game while I give my three quick predictions:
1. Deshaun Watson's performance tonight will go a long way in deciding the winner, so KC's ability to disrupt his effectiveness could be what keeps your Chiefs undefeated. The Texans have allowed their QB to be hit 29 times, which is the 7th-most in football. The Chiefs, for comparison's sake, have seen Smith get hit 25 times, which is 13th in the league. Both offenses feature QB's with remarkable mobility, but both defensive fronts are among the league's scariest.
I'd bet on KC to hold Watson and the Texans to waaay less than the 57 points they scored last Sunday, partly by making the rookie quarterback uncomfortable. Despite the absence of Dee Ford this week, expect at least four QB hits from a combination of Justin Houston, Chris Jones and KC's aesthetically terrifying rookie edge rusher Tanoh Kpassagnon.
2. KC ranks 4th league-wide in turnover differential at +5, while Houston sits at an even 0. Most analysts are calling for a close game tonight, so expect the winner of the turnover battle to win the game. Alex Smith is almost-inexplicably the league's best QB right now, and he's yet to throw a pick, so he should give his team the edge in that turnover battle tonight.
3. Numerous injuries to KC's offensive line makes them additionally susceptible to the Texans' formidable defense tonight. Andy Reid knows this, however, and he'll plan accordingly. Expect the quick-moving, shovel-passing, option-happy Chiefs play-calling to continue its consistent success and earn KC a hard-fought victory. Chiefs win, 20-16.
(Bonus prediction: Carlos Carrasco throws a gem for the Indians tonight, and the Yankees lose 5-2. Stupid Yankees.)
Doug LaCerte still fails to use his Facebook or consistently tweet @DLaC67, but he's trying, damn it.
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