Chargers' Awful Offense Gives KC Major Edge

It's fair to say that the Los Angeles Chargers have too much talent on their roster to be 0-5, but our 4-0 Kansas City Chiefs still have a clear advantage in nearly every statistical category that matters. Common opponents between the Chiefs and Chargers tell a very clear story. KC destroyed Bo Nix's Broncos in Week 1, but Denver defeated the Chargers in Week 4. The Chiefs defense held Nix to his worst Passer Rating of his season so far - 69.2 - while the Chargers lost to Denver and allowed Nix to earn his second-highest Rating of the season - 82.8. The Chiefs went on to defeat the Las Vegas Raiders and held Kirk Cousins to a 85.8 Passer Rating. Kirk posted a Rating of 113.1 when he led Vegas to a victory over the Chargers in Week 3.

A lot of Los Angeles' problems must be blamed on the inconceivable regression of Justin Herbert. Miami's Malik Willis is the only person considered a full-time starter who has a Passer Rating lower than Herbert right now. With his help, the Chargers are tied for the second-worst turnover ratio in the league at -5. KC is second-best in the league with a +5. The Chargers are generating the 8th- fewest yards per game, while the Chiefs are averaging the second-most.

The only way this turns into a trap game is if KC fails to convert on third downs. The Chargers' defense actually excels on third down, but their offense, shockingly, does not. The Chargers' defense allows opponents to convert on third downs only 31.25% of the time, which is the fifth-best rate in the league. While that's better than the Chiefs' defense, which still ranks 11th in this regard, the Chiefs' offense ranks ninth in the league at converting on third down. Herbert and the Chargers' offense ranks 26th.

Now that I'm putting all their statistical ineptitude down in one place, it almost feels mean. I really don't know how it got this bad for them, but something between new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel and the naturally gifted, once-great Justin Herbert just doesn't work. Figuring out why will be fascinating work for some Chargers blogger out there, but I'm happy with my unique responsibilities detailing continued greatness here in the Kingdom. I'm predicting a 27-17 victory for Kansas City.

Undefeated Raiders Face Franchise First - Are They For Real or Fugazi?

For the first time ever, a 3-0 Chiefs team will face off with a 3-0 Raiders team, but will both wind up as legit Super Bowl contenders? Probably not, if you ask me and the oddsmakers. Despite both being undefeated entering Week 4, the Chiefs' odds to reach the playoffs are -600 at DraftKings this Sunday morning, and the Raiders odds sit at +122. One team is undeniable right now, while another has survived against some subpar competition. You can guess which is which.

 

The good news for the Raiders comes mainly from their offense. Despite not getting the running game going at all this year, the Raiders' offense has been really effective through three games. I honestly can't decide if that's a good sign or a bad sign for them. Brock Bowers just returned and immediately caught 10 balls for triple-digit yardage and a touchdown, and Tre Tucker looked like an emerging threat when Bowers was out with injury. Kirk Cousins threw for three touchdowns in all three of the first games of the season.

That all sounds nice, but a bad day from the Las Vegas defense could make it irrelevant. The Raiders defeated the Dolphins, Chargers and Saints to reach Week 4 undefeated. Tyler Shough may actually turn out to be solid, but he's the only QB the Raiders have faced who currently ranks higher than 29th in Passer Rating. None of those teams produce at the level of Patrick Mahomes and this revamped Chiefs offense. The infusion of talent at the running back position is already proving itself a fruitful offseason decision.

The list of rushing leaders in the league looked like most people would expect heading into Week 4, with one amazing exception. There's Bijan, James Cook III, Derrick Henry, Jahmyr Gibbs, but, oh my, who's at the top of the list? Kenneth Walker III, with 360 rushing yards. His productivity has clearly helped Mahomes, who is now fifth in the league in passing yards. This results in the Chiefs offense ranking second just slightly behind the Rams as the most productive offense in football through three games. That's a challenge completely unlike what these Raiders have ever faced.

The fact that Kansas City's defense is coming together nicely makes me even more confident that the Chiefs with hold on to their undefeated record today. KC ranks fourth in yards allowed and third in points allowed per game. No other Las Vegas opponent ranks higher than 18th in points or yards allowed. I'm predicting a 33-24 victory that suddenly leaves Raiders fans with an uneasy feeling as they look at their post-Chiefs schedule. Between now and Week 11, the Raiders have to face the Chiefs, Patriots, Bills, Rams, 49ers, Seahawks and Broncos. Forget about the identical records - the Chiefs are built for sustained greatness and the Raiders could be below .500 by Halloween.