Here's Why KC Will Bounce Back in Jacksonville

    Looks like the good times are over, Chiefs Kingdom. Go ahead and jump off the bus now. May as well find another team to cheer for. Our Kansas City Chiefs lost 21-20 to the Detroit Lions last week, and their opponents this Sunday look like a consistent playoff contender for years to come. A dark cloud hung over the Kingdom after that disappointing start, but despite what the haters may say, the sky will not fall.

    Look past the sting of this defeat and recognize that the Chiefs played without two of the team's three best players and still put themselves in position to win numerous times. Then, well-placed Patrick Mahomes passes bounced off receivers' hands, as Chiefs fans everywhere audibly and collectively groaned. Also recognize that the once-lowly Lions emerged as a legitimate winner late last season and showed up ready for their shot at the champs. Fortunately for KC, we should probably see Travis Kelce and Chris Jones back in action for Week 2. Those returns will be crucial against a Jacksonville Jaguars team with immeasurable desire to get revenge on the rivals who knocked them out of last year's playoffs.

    The Jags offense looks studly after the inclusion of Calvin Ridley and rookie Tank Bigsby, but their secondary still looks suspect. Last season, the Jags ranked 28th in passing yards allowed per game. The top three most-used cornerbacks and safeties for Jacksonville last season are slotted into the same spots on the depth chart this season. Jacksonville's secondary limited Colts QB Anthony Richardson in his NFL debut last week, but Patrick is not Anthony Richardson, and this is not his NFL debut.  While Jacksonville held Richardson to a 30.6 QBR and 79 Passer Rating, Mahomes finished last year's AFC Divisional Round faceoff with a 78.5 QBR and a 112.5 RTG. Just don't let Jags edge rusher extraordinaire Josh Allen ruin Kansas City's day; he sacked Richardson three times and hit him twice last week.

    I don't want to rain on the parade of a potential rivalry or be overly reductive here, but without improving the part of their team that was most vulnerable last season, the Jags put a ceiling on the amount of fear they can instill in the hearts of Chiefs fans. Calvin Ridley may look like a top-10 receiver against a Chiefs secondary that is by no means perfect, but I trust an angry, motivated Patrick Mahomes to make a statement at the expense of the Jaguars this Sunday. Trevor Lawrence and his offense could look really impressive in this game and still get outscored by double-digits thanks to the legendary tandem of a pissed-off Mahomes and the best tight end ever, Travis Kelce. I'm predicting a 34-24 Chiefs victory and a lot of back-tracking from football pundits prematurely predicting KC's demise.

Can KC Continue Week 1 Dominance by Defeating Detroit?

Should we be scared about this matchup, Chiefs Kingdom? The Lions are formidable, and the (probable) absences of two of KC's three best players ensure that the Chiefs will not be 100% tonight. It's no secret that the Chiefs dominate Week 1 in the Andy Reid era; they're 9-1 in season openers since Andy came to town, as noted by Arrowhead Pride's John Dixon, and Patrick Mahomes has scored at least 33 in every Week 1 start in his career, according to the prolific Stephen Serda. History alone cannot overcome KC's obstacles tonight, however. Before we look into the lack of Chris Jones and probable lack of Travis Kelce, we should remember just how good the '23 Lions could be.

Detroit's offense finished fifth in points per game and fourth in total yards per game last season. They went 8-2 in their last 10 games. A galvanized, hungry, young roster will be excited to take their shot at the champs tonight. Will their mediocre-at-best defense keep them in this game? That could depend heavily on the effectiveness of Kansas City's revamped offensive line.

We may be understating how different this offensive line will be without Orlando Brown at left tackle. As reported by ESPN's Adam Teicher, the Chiefs signed Donovan Smith to be their starting left tackle after he had one of the worst starting seasons in his entire career. The opposite can be said for KC's new right tackle Jawaan Taylor, who showed significant improvement as a Jacksonville Jaguar last year, just before the Chiefs signed him up for four years and $80 million. The trustworthy core of the Chiefs offensive line and promising new signing at right tackle should keep Patrick safe for years to come, but entering the season with questions about the most important position on that line is undoubtedly not the ideal scenario for KC.

Kelce and Jones' absences are unavoidable and important topics heading into this game. KC's next man up at the tight end position, Noah Gray, won't just slot right into this offense and have 87's level of creativeness and chemistry with the starters. That doesn't mean KC is destined to struggle on offense tonight, though. Jerick McKinnon, Skyy Moore and others can be expected to step up and increase their productivity without Kelce on the field. Filling the Chris Jones-sized void on the other side of the ball seems like the tougher task tonight.

#95 applied a ridiculous amount of pressure on opponents' offenses last season, finishing with the league's fourth-most sacks (15.5) and by far the most sacks by any defensive lineman in football. The only other Chief on the roster with more than five sacks last season is George Karlaftis, who had six. Defensive end Charles Omenihu is serving his suspension and first-round pick Felix Anudike-Uzomah isn't immediately ready for a starting role. That means pressuring the quarterback won't be simple for KC tonight against an offense that could soon prove itself as one of the best in the league.

The ceiling for this Lions offense looks like it could be one of footballs' highest. Jahmyr Gibb's promise as a speedy, pass-catching RB is undeniable, and Amon-Ra St. Brown's future looks equally bright. Last year's Lions' offense finished with the league's fifth-most points per game and fourth-most total yards per game. Gibbs can hopefully be contained by Chiefs linebackers paying extra attention to him this evening. Despite averaging more than six catches per game last year, St. Brown dropped 40 of 146 targets. Extra physicality from KC's secondary could disrupt St. Brown enough to limit his effectiveness today. Seeing a little violence (within the rules of the game) from the likes of Trent McDuffie and Justin Reid would bode well for Kansas City's near future.

Turnovers are a boring and simple topic, but winning the turnover battle can be crucial in potentially close games such as this one. Detroit finished last year with the NFL's fewest giveaways and fourth-best turnover differential. KC was league-average or worse in those categories last season, so it seems likely that the Chiefs will need to overcome not only the aforementioned absences but also a negative turnover differential tonight.

All the elements of this game that favor Detroit still don't add up to me predicting a Chiefs defeat. Reid and Mahomes are just too good together in Week 1 for me to do that. Also, Detroit's defense is just as horrendous as their offense is impressive; they allowed the most total yards per game and the fifth-most points per game in the league last season. I predict that the Lions scare Chiefs Kingdom with some flashy offense tonight but ultimately fall to the defending Super Bowl champs in a 31-27 thriller. Whatever happens tonight will set the tone for upcoming matchups with other promising teams like Jacksonville, the Jets and the Vikings, who all face off with the Chiefs before the middle of October.

Can KC Overcome Success-Craving Cleveland?

Our defending Super Bowl champions take the field in mere moments. The Kansas City Chiefs face the Cleveland Browns today, and the winners punch their ticket to the AFC Championship game next weekend. While the Chiefs overcame a laundry list of legit competition to earn the #1 seed, the Browns' obstacles looked less impressive.

Cleveland's schedule was a joke. The 11-5 Browns won only three games against winning football teams in the regular season. Their schedule included victories over each team from the NFC East, a win over the Texans, two wins from the Bengals and one from the one-win Jaguars. The Browns also lost to the New York Jets in Week 16. If Cleveland didn't face so many cupcake opponents this season, they may not have made it this far.

The Chiefs beat the Ravens, Bills, Bucs and Saints in the regular season, which further galvanized the reigning champions. The Browns needed an easy schedule to sneak their way into the playoffs, just like they needed a bad game from the Steelers to sneak into the second round.

It's true that Patrick Mahomes and his offense are guilty of getting off to slow starts this season. However, none of KC's struggles compare to the awful way Pittsburgh started the game last week. The Steelers' first six possessions resulted in three interceptions, two punts and a botched long-snap that turned into a Browns touchdown. Kansas City will not do that today. 

Regardless of who they beat to reach this point, Cleveland matches up well against KC in numerous ways. Baker Mayfield deserves credit for making plays in key moments throughout the season, and he's bringing with him the world's best rushing duo. All throughout the regular season, the Browns' elite run game found success against defenses better-equipped at stopping the run than Kansas City's.

Numbers also indicate that the Browns will have the advantage in the red zone, an area in which KC has been surprisingly ineffective on both sides of the ball. The Chiefs allow the highest percentage of touchdowns scored by opponents in the red zone, and Cleveland ranks third league-wide in red zone touchdown scoring efficiency. Part of the Browns' success has to do with protecting their young quarterback, but at least KC also excels in protecting Patrick. Sacks-per-game statistics show that both defenses are below-average at sacking the QB, and both offensive lines prevent sacks at an elite level.

I expect the Browns to utilize an efficient offense that burns clock and limits the opportunities for Mahomes to scorch that flawed Cleveland secondary. The grand sum of all the nice things listed above about the Browns should be enough to let Cleveland avoid embarrassment this afternoon, but it won't be enough to beat the defending champs. I predict a 34-24 victory for our Chiefs and a mild headache for me after lots of joyful shouting.

Mahomes Must Avoid Forced Fumbles To Defeat Dolphins

Today is not the day for the Kansas City Chiefs to let their guard down. The 8-4 Miami Dolphins enter this game hungry to prove themselves and add a victory over the champs to their resume. How scared should Chiefs Kingdom really be of Tua, or perhaps more accurately, of this Dolphins defense?

Starting at noon today, we'll see the #2 scoring offense in the NFL facing off against the league's #2 scoring defense. We'll also see perhaps the best cornerback in football in Miami's Xavien Howard lining up against the best deep threat in football in KC's Tyreek Hill. Facing off against an excellent secondary could translate to big games for Chiefs pass-catchers that aren't playing the role of #1 and #2 wide receiver. That means the effectiveness of Travis Kelce and Mecole Hardman could make or break the Chiefs offense today. While elite talent forces the Chiefs to adjust their offensive scheme, a history-changing global crisis will alter Miami's plan on offense.

COVID-19 is sadly blame for Miami's serious disadvantage against our Chiefs today. Said virus rendered two of Miami's three top running backs unable to play, and the third is sidelined with a shoulder injury. That clearly gives our Chiefs a major advantage in the hours to come, but this Dolphins team wins games they should not. Miami's Week 8 win over the legit Los Angeles Rams is my main piece of evidence.

Rams pressure forced a Tua fumble early in this midseason meeting that came after Miami's bye week and represents the beginning of the Tagovailoa Era for the 'Phins faithful. A Jared Goff pick shortly thereafter gave Miami the ball and good field position, and this led to Tua's first career TD pass. Then, with the game still tied, Myles Gaskin fumbled on first down within 10 yards of his own endzone. This definitely doesn't sound like the description of a game that the Dolphins won by multiple possessions, but it happened. Miami's defense forced four turnovers from Jared Goff, and Jakeem Grant ran back an 88-yard punt for a Dolphins touchdown. Every Dolphins drive in the second half of that game resulted in a punt, yet they beat the Rams by 11.

The Dolphins had a healthy Gaskin and a healthy Matt Breida that day, but Tua and that tandem combined for only 60 rushing yards. It wasn't a strong running game that helped Miami defeat one of the league's best that week. Turnovers were the reason Miami pulled that one off, and they're now tied with three other teams for the fourth-best turnover differential in the NFL. KC's +11 differential ties them with Pittsburgh for the league's best. Enjoy the fact that the Chiefs' trajectory still points to greatness, but prepare yourself for a close game today.

Prepare to be upset when Tua scrambles and makes plays by exploiting the Chiefs' imperfect core of linebackers. Prepare for impressive pass-catching tight end Mike Gesicki to frustrate the entire Kingdom by helping Tua do so. I think that duo will be enough to keep things competitive today, but I also think a well-prepared Chiefs team should beat these Dolphins more often than not. I predict a hard-fought 30-24 victory for the Chiefs. If Miami's new golden boy at QB is the real deal, this will serve as only Scene 1 in the long, enjoyable story of Patrick vs. Tua.