A uniquely frigid setting for history-making football awaits the Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins at Arrowhead Stadium tonight. Much digital ink was spilled detailing the historically cold temperatures for this Wild Card Weekend in KC, but credit goes to @SBBreakers for the tweets of the week. The original has all the details, but the main takeaways are that the Mahomes-era Chiefs are undefeated in weather below 18 degrees, and Miami is winless in their 11 games played in temperatures below 40 degrees since 2017. That's bad news for a Dolphins team that already looked pedestrian facing the Chiefs in Germany a couple months ago. I can't remember the exact temperature in Frankfurt that day, but I really don't think the wind chill was expected to dip below -15 like it will in KC tonight.
The Chiefs defeated Miami 21-14 that day, and numerous Dolphins currently dealing with injuries helped Miami keep that game close. Bradley Chubb strip-sacked Patrick Mahomes for a fumble on a crucial third down. Chubb's out for the season. Xavien Howard helped Miami's secondary disrupt KC's passing offense so much that Chiefs tight end Noah Gray led his team in receiving yards with 34. Howard is also unavailable for tonight's game. Miami's leading rusher in that mid-season game, Raheem Mostert, is also struggling with a knee injury that left him limited in participation in his latest practice.
One impact player on Miami's offense that should enter today's game with relatively sound health is former Chiefs receiver Tyreek Hill, who had 63 receiving yards and a key fumble in the aforementioned November meeting with Kansas City. He's actually done more damage to KC's defense than most other elite receivers this season. The Chiefs held Philly's A.J. Brown to one catch for eight receiving yards, Buffalo's Stefon Diggs to four catches for 24 and Bengal Ja'Marr Chase to 3 for 41. The numbers, and Trent McDuffie being named as a first team All-Pro, prove that the Chiefs can shut down the best weapons from any passing offense in football.
Another key difference between today's Miami-KC matchup and the last one is the availability of Chiefs linebacker Nick Bolton. The nasty weather won't help Miami's passing attack, and it will likely lead to more plays designed to safely get Tyreek the ball with room to run. In moments like this, on jet sweeps and bubble screens and whatnot, the opposing defense relies heavily on their linebackers to get to the right spot and make timely tackles. This is Nick Bolton's forte. Having him healthy today, when circumstances dictate that the opponent's offensive game plan be built to attack his position, is a highly underrated advantage for Kansas City. With his help, the Chiefs only need to perform up to their normal standard and avoid crucial mistakes in order to secure the victory tonight.
Those crucial mistakes, however, weren't so easy to avoid in the regular season. KC finished the season tied for the fourth-worst turnover differential and tied for the most offensive holding penalties in the NFL this season. Four different teams did not surpass the eight holding penalties drawn solely by Chiefs left tackle Jawaan Taylor. These kinds of things leave the door open for disappointment. I still think the Chiefs can overcome them, though. I'm predicting a memorable and gritty 20-13 victory for KC.
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