Will Persistent Penalty Problems Help Philly Fend Off KC?

Many, many things had to go wrong for the Kansas City Chiefs to lose last week's season opener against the Los Angeles Chargers. With true #1 receiver Rashee Rice out due to a suspension, the Chiefs lost their next #1 when Xavier Worthy dislocated his shoulder less than two minutes into the game. Chargers QB Justin Herbert finished his day with a Passer Rating north of 130. Chiefs right tackle Jawaan Taylor committed four penalties in the first 32 minutes of game-time. All these issues still left KC's defense with a chance to give the ball back to Patrick Mahomes late in the fourth - if only they could stop the Chargers from converting on that 3rd and 14 right before the two-minute warning.

The Chiefs incurred 10 total penalties, but eight of them were incurred with more than 13 minutes on the clock in the third quarter. Four of those eight were on Jawaan Taylor, who was tied for first last season in total flags drawn. He also represented 17.27% of the Chiefs' total penalties, which was the highest percentage in the NFL last season. Taylor has constantly drawn too many penalties throughout his career, so there is little surprise that he is the most penalized player in football after Week 1. To be the biggest penalty problem on the team, and to do so by the biggest margin in the NFL, all while representing a bigger cap hit than anyone not named Mahomes, is an objectively significant problem. 

Playing that kind of ugly football against the defending Super Bowl champs will probably result in a loss for KC. Philly's defense may not be as good as last season's after some significant offseason departures, but they seem to have retained their ability to apply pressure to opposing QB's. In Week 1, the Eagles pressured Dak Prescott 13 times, but Dak was able to evade most of the contact and play a relatively clean game. If Mahomes can do the same, the opportunity for big plays down the field should present themselves. KC needs to take advantage of these moments, all while tightening up in their own secondary, if they have any real hope to win this Super Bowl rematch. 

Justin Herbert excelled in the intermediate passing game last week, according to his most recent pass chart. Young Chiefs like Chamarri Conner, Jaden Hicks and Bryan Cook all need to improve coverage over the middle of the field within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage or Kansas City is doomed against opponents with competent quarterbacks. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has a tough job balancing this with trying to stop future Hall of Fame back Saquon Barkley from gutting KC's interior defense all afternoon long. Spags is a master at his craft, though, and I trust him to plug the right holes with creative blitzing packages and coverage schemes today. His ability to do so, plus the Chiefs' ability to limit costly penalties today, will decide who comes away from this big rematch with a win.

Like I said, I have faith in Spags to get the chess pieces where they need to be today. I'm predicting a fun, gritty 24-23 victory for our Kansas City Chiefs. I really, really don't want to be talking about Jawaan Taylor's penalties for another week of analysis. If that happens, we'll see Jaylon Moore getting more significant snaps very soon.

Excellent Eagles Cannot Prevent Unprecedented Chiefs Three-Peat

Our Kansas City Chiefs are just hours away from their chance to do something never done before. These Chiefs have the opportunity to become the first ever team to win three consecutive Super Bowls. No back-to-back champs have ever made it back to The Big Game for a shot at #3. Standing in Kansas City's way is an imposing Philadelphia Eagles team with a superior defense, offensive line, running back and better wide receivers. Philly also has an offensive coordinator who succeeded so much in his role that he'll reportedly become the New Orleans Saints head coach once this game is over.

Eagles OC Kellen Moore deserves tons of credit for building an elite offense around Saquon Barkley and an elite offensive line. His scheme helped Saquon become just the ninth player in league history to run for 2,000 yards in a season. Philly leaned heavily on the offensive line and running back to great success this season, even when it disgruntled A.J. Brown and anyone else wanting them to air it out more often. Despite his frustrations, Brown still ranked fourth out of all qualifying receivers in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus. PFF also has Devonta Smith ranked in the top-20 after he led the league in catch rate this season.

All those weapons on the Eagles' offense, and especially Barkley, gave Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo plenty to think about these past two weeks. Derrick Henry faced off with Spags' defense in the first week of this year's regular season, and he ran for just 46 yards on 13 carries in that game. Bijan Robinson ranked third in rushing yards this season behind only Henry and Saquon, but when he faced Kansas City in Week 3, he averaged only 1.9 yards over 16 carries. Bucky Irving, who ranked 10th in rushing for Tampa Bay, ran for 49 yards on 10 carries when the Chiefs beat the Bucs in overtime in Week 9. Carolina's Chuba Hubbard, who ranked 8th in rushing this season, ran for 58 with his 16 carries when he faced the Chiefs in Week 12.  That's four of the league's ten best running backs, and all of them averaged less than five yards a carry when they played Kansas City.

While KC excelled facing elite running backs, Saquon's stats against elite rushing defenses looked pedestrian. He looked good against Tampa's fourth-ranked rushing defense, averaging 8.4 yards per rush, but Philly's early  24-0 deficit in that game led to Saquon getting only 10 carries. He also faced Pittsburgh's 5th-ranked rushing defense, Green Bay's 6th-ranked rushing defense and #1-ranked Baltimore in the regular season. In all those games, he ran between 19 and 24 times and never averaged more than 4.7 yards per carry. Another Saquon performance like that today would be great news for Kansas City.

If Philly wants to keep this game competitive, they need to score way more than 19.2, which is the Chiefs' average points allowed per game in this regular season. The Eagles scored 27.2 per game in the regular season, which is good for seventh in the NFL, but that would not be enough to keep up with Playoff Mahomes. Playoff Mahomes is an absolute monster. He's simply the best at everything among everyone ever when it comes to the playoffs. Vic Fangio coordinated an excellent Eagles defense this season, but it won't be enough to stop Mahomes and Andy Reid from succeeding today.

The Eagles have a great, young secondary, a strong linebacker core led by PFF's "Breakout Player of the Year" Zack Baun and an elite blitzing attack led by edge rusher Nolan Smith and All-Pro defensive lineman Jalen Carter. These studs helped Philly allowed the least total yards and passing yards in the regular season. They ranked second behind the Chargers by just 0.1 points in scoring allowed. They held eight of their last nine regular season opponents to under 21 points. Only three of the Eagles' opponents, through the regular season and the playoffs, scored more than 23.

Mahomes told media that him vs. Fangio is "going to be a chess match", but it's really been like a chess match between Magnus Carlsen and a third-grader. Mahomes is 8-0 against Fangio-led defenses, with six of the wins coming against Fangio as head coach of the Broncos, and the other two occurring when Fangio was Miami's DC. The Kansas City Star's Blair Kerkhoff pointed out, however, that Mahomes has never faced a Fangio team this good before. Those Fangio teams scored about 12 per game, and while those Broncos and Dolphins defenses never ranked above 13th in DVOA, or Defensive-adjusted Value Over Average, the Eagles are first in the NFL. Even when facing a Philly team with an elite offense and defense, Mahomes' playoff prowess gives Kansas City the edge in today's Big Game.

A moment like this to prove one's greatness in completely unprecedented fashion is rare. Mahomes lives up to big moments with a higher rate of success than any quarterback in playoffs history. Similar consistent greatness has been shown by Andy Reid, Travis Kelce and Chris Jones. I expect the true greats to be truly great today, but that also means Saquon could come very, very close to breaking countless hearts in Chiefs Kingdom. While the Eagles may have the better roster as a whole, I think the Chiefs' roster outclasses them when it comes to the number of players and coaches involved that are considered all-time greats. That will ultimately lead to a high-scoring, all-time moment for the NFL and a 33-27 victory for our Kansas City Chiefs.

As always, I hope you have the opportunity to enjoy it all with people who love football and love you.

KC's Elite D Key to Victory in Super Bowl Rematch

Tonight, the NFL gives us the best game they could possibly offer in the regular season. Hours from now, the 8-1 Philadelphia Eagles take the field at Arrowhead to face off with the reigning Super Bowl champs. This rematch of last year's Big Game offers KC a chance to get more confident and Philly a chance to get a little revenge. Despite these teams putting 73 total points on the board last time they met, today's over/under for total points sits at 46. These two teams are still great, but the Chiefs have achieved that greatness in unexpected ways.

The huge improvement of KC's defense probably counts as the most pleasant surprise for Chiefs Kingdom this year. This Chiefs defense ranks fourth in total yards and passing yards allowed per game and allows the league's second-fewest points per game. They'll be facing a Philly offense that racks up the fourth-most total yards per game and scores the NFL's third-most points per game. The Eagles offense features the best quarterback-receiver duo in the league - yes, better than Tua and Tyreek. Jalen Hurts is second only to Patrick Mahomes in odds to win MVP this season, and A.J. Brown has been about as consistently great as possible this year. Brown has at least six catches in nine of Philly's 10 games this season, and he racked up over 125 receiving yards in six of them. 

Many other potent elements of the Eagles' offense keeps them balanced. Hurts averages 9.8 rushes per game. DeVonta Smith has seven games with at least four catches and punishes teams who devote too much attention to Brown. D'Andre Swift is averaging over 16 carries per game for over 75 yards in his last eight games. It won't be easy to limit Philly's offense, but the Chiefs are well-equipped to do so. L'Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie helped the Chiefs limit Miami - the only team in football to put up more total points and total yards than Philly - to just 14 points.

While the Eagles defense doesn't stand out on paper as much as KC's currently does, both defenses excel in pressuring opposing QB's. The Chiefs' 31 team sacks ties for #8 in the league. The Eagles' multi-faceted attack featuring Josh Sweat, Jalen Carter and Haason Reddick is right behind KC with 30 team sacks. The Chiefs only allow 1.3 sacks per game this season, tying them for the fewest in the NFL. Continuing that level of success on the front lines will be crucial to keeping KC alive in tonight's game.

I don't want a moment this potentially epic to be hampered by penalties, but numbers indicate that it's possible. They also indicate that KC isn't likely to get the upper hand in this regard. The Chiefs have the third-worst net yardage differential from penalties this season, while the Eagles have the fifth-best. Both teams are fresh and relatively healthy after their bye week, with veteran Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert, second-string Philly safety Justin Evans and rarely-utilized Chiefs receiver Richie James being the only names on the final injury report. Whether or not a return to nearly-full strength for KC makes the Chiefs better than Philly remains to be proven.

The Eagles handled the Dolphins 31-17 earlier this season. They're coming off a victory over the Cowboys. Their -2 turnover differential this season isn't great, but it's better than Kansas City's -4. A moment or two when KC's flaws result in them losing a game to a great opponent seem inevitable based on what we've seen from the Chiefs this season. This game is a prime example, so I'm begrudgingly predicting a sad ending to a thrilling game, and a 26-23 Philly victory. It should be close, and it could even come down to overtime. I hope I'm dead wrong, and I hope you get to enjoy it with people who love football and love you. Cheers, Chiefs Kingdom.

How Will Chiefs Respond to Early Adversity?

It took several turnovers and game-changing penalties to get it done, but our Kansas City Chiefs reacted to their disappointing defeat in Baltimore with a disappointing defeat at Arrowhead. Few expected this. Chiefs Kingdom is shaken. The space between games felt painfully long this week. Ugly turnovers at inopportune moments cost the Chiefs two out of their first three games as they faced off with some of the AFC's best, but today will be different. Today, KC faces off with a 1-2 Philadelphia Eagles team led by a talented young quarterback experiencing significant growing pains in an organization with no expectations of reaching the playoffs this year.

It's no surprise that KC is a big favorite today, but if the Chiefs let this week's game stay interesting for long, the success-hungry fans of Kansas City will consider it an underperformance. Patrick Mahomes and a motivated Chiefs team should finish today with their biggest margin of victory of the season so far, and maybe their biggest of the entire year. Philly just lost to the Dallas Cowboys by 20, as Dak Prescott completed over 80% of his passes and threw for three touchdowns. Chiefs deep threat maestro Tyreek Hill only caught five passes last week and three the week before. I expect his impact on this game to be bigger than it was in these last two weeks, and I expect the Chiefs to overwhelm the Eagles with their superior offensive firepower.

What could turn this potential blowout into another nail-biter, or worse, another heart-breaking L for the Chiefs? The obvious answer is turnovers, which can ruin even the most well-crafted gameplan, but what else? KC's run defense is bad right now, and Jalen Hurts' running ability presents problems for bad run defenses. The Chiefs defense allows the second-most rushing yards per game and the second-most points per game league-wide. It's worth noting once again, though, that the Chiefs experienced these struggles while facing three of the best teams the AFC has to offer. Philly has upside, but they're objectively the worst team on paper that Kansas City has faced so far this season. Aside from the technical reasons why the Chiefs are the superior team taking the field today, there is another, more philosophical advantage that KC brings to today's meeting.

A team playing for their chance to achieve greatness becomes hungry and dangerous after facing early-season adversity. KC still has every reason to believe they can earn a bye week in the playoffs when they see the underwhelming teams currently atop the standings. The AFC's three teams with three wins are the Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders and Cincinnati Bengals. I don't believe that any of these teams that failed to finish last season with winning records will threaten the Chiefs' chances at the top playoff seed this season. Dropping to 1-3 would make reclaiming the #1 seed highly unlikely, while climbing to 2-2 keeps the chase for the bye week alive and well. This simple fact will motivate everyone in the Chiefs organization.

I'm predicting a 37-20 victory for our Chiefs today as they try to get mentally healthy before facing the Buffalo Bills next Sunday night. A Kansas City team led by Andy Reid won't overlook the Eagles; they'll simply execute their game-plan effectively enough to use Philly as their punching bag after two weeks of serious frustration.

Can KC Make Giants' Season Even Sadder?

A whole bunch of stats indicate that our Kansas City Chiefs should succeed handily against the New York Football Giants today. The 1-8 Giants are one of the three worst teams in football according to power rankings from ESPN, NFL.com, Sports Illustrated, Bleacher Report and probably several more power rankings I didn't check. New York's defense cannot stop big plays, and KC may be the league's best big-play offense. The Giants can't stop the run, and the Chiefs bring to the Big Apple one of the world's best running backs. However, KC is not without their own flaws, and the Giants have the tools necessary to exploit those flaws today.

The only Giants on the offensive side of the ball that scare me are the running backs, and not only because Orleans Darkwa averages 5.1 yards over 81 attempts this season. The Giants' only victory so far this year came against the similarly lousy Denver Broncos in Week 6. New York didn't turn the ball over, while Denver turned it over three times, and Darkwa ran for 117 yards. He and Wayne Gallman scare me because all running backs scare me until the Chiefs show marked improvement in the run-stopping department. The Giants are actually one of only three teams in the league allowing more yards per rush than KC. If the Chiefs limit turnovers and Darkwa, they should win. We know KC can limit turnovers, but we also know the defenses' run-stopping skills are lacking. This leads me to an ever-so-smooth segue that then leads me to these three quick predictions:

1. Because of all the aforementioned success with running the ball, I predict both Darkwa and Kareem Hunt to earn more than 85 yards on the ground. Savor every moment of Chiefs football you get today, because all this rushing should keep the clock ticking and make this a relatively quick game.

2. The Giants played arguably their best game of the season against the current front-runners for the NFC championship. Eli and the rest of the offense didn't show up until the fourth quarter that week, when they scored all of their 24 points to make the Philadelphia Eagles sweat late. The Eagles ultimately won 27-24, but let's remember those 24 points scored in a single quarter before we get too cocky at any point in this game. KC's coaching staff will undoubtedly keep that in mind. I predict that Eli helps the Giants keep things interesting in New York today and stops KC from covering their 10-point spread.

3. Despite my hesitation to predict a blowout or even a comfortable win, I predict a 30-23 victory for the Chiefs that should provide some calm to the Kingdom. It's not like a victory against a playoff-caliber opponent, or even a .500 opponent, but it's a meaningful "get healthy" moment for KC. This is the start of four consecutive weeks with a Sunday noon game for the Chiefs, so now's the time to return to normalcy with a win in New York.

Doug LaCerte still has a rarely used Facebook page and occasionally tweets things @DLaC67.

KC Can't Sleep on Eagles in Week 2

Don't sleep on these Philadelphia Eagles, Chiefs fans. It may feel like KC can't be beat after that sweet victory in the reigning champs' backyard, but the way the Chiefs and Eagles match up gives us serious potential for a wild game today.

The Eagles defense ranked 13th in yards allowed per game in 2016 and 12th in points allowed. The 2017 squad currently ranks fourth with four sacks. In Week 1, that defense held the Washington Redskins (who ranked 3rd in the NFL in yards per game last year) to just 17 points and 264 total yards. The Eagles blitz often on defense, and their offense revels in attempting deep passes. Carson Wentz' effectiveness at turning those attempts into big gains for Philadelphia will determine the Eagles' ability to stay in this game. That brings me to my three quick predictions:

1. Doug Pederson's game plan will target Chiefs CB Terrance Mitchell numerous times, and it will pay off for a disappointingly big play for Philly at least twice. KC's game plan will counter with plenty of secondary help for Mitchell when Wentz is in passing situations, but he's gonna get burnt. I can just feel it.

2. Kareem Hunt might not break records today, but he should still have a solid outing against a Philadelphia run defense that ranked 15th in rushing yards allowed per game in 2016. New England, for the record, finished 3rd in that category last year, and we all know what Kareem did to them in Foxborough last week. Stopping Eagles DT Fletcher Cox from stuffing up run plays will be crucial today, but Hunt will still rush for at least 80 yards and finish the day with more than 100 yards total.

3. I think we'll see more of a shootout than Vegas predicts. Because of a greater potential for turnovers, potent passing offenses on both sides of the ball and a KC defense that will sorely miss Eric Berry and Steven Nelson, I predict a 30-24 Chiefs victory.

Doug LaCerte still kinda uses Twitter @DLaC67, and he barely, barely looks at his ole' Facebook any more.

KC Success in The Steel City?

Our 2-1 Kansas City Chiefs face off tonight against the recently enigmatic 2-1 Pittsburgh Steelers. To better understand the 2016 Steelers, we need to take a quick look at the team that dominated them just a week ago. Pittsburgh lost 34-3 to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 3, and rookie QB Carson Wentz threw for 301 yards. Pittsburgh was arguably Philly's first legit test of the year, since the Eagles began the season with wins against the Browns and Bears. Maybe Wentz runs an offense that will go on to consistently burn good NFL defenses. Maybe the Steelers' defense is officially "no good". It seems like there's some truth to both possibilities.

Only four NFL teams have allowed more yards per game than Pittsburgh. Despite that, the Steelers have only allowed 22 points per game, which puts them right in the middle of the pack statistically. Only five teams hold their opponents to a lower 3rd down conversion percentage, but despite the veteran presence of OLD James Harrison and others, the Steelers D won't instill fear in the Chiefs quite like they did in years past.

For the record, Philadelphia averages 9 points allowed per game this year, which is the lowest average in the NFL. It sounds like Pittsburgh got beat by a balanced, impressive Eagles team last week. However, KC surely had the flaws that Philly exploited in mind when designing this week's game plan. KC's offense has the weapons necessary to exploit Pittsburgh's flaws, and KC’s defense has the ability to suddenly change the game with a timely interception or six.

According to OddsShark.com, bookies will give KC between three and four points in this Week 4 faceoff at Heinz Field. For once, I have more faith in my Chiefs than Vegas does. I expect KC's offense to have a good day, thanks in part to that red-hot secondary keeping the turnover ratio in the Chiefs' favor. I'm predicting a 27-24 win for our Chiefs, a high-five-inducing interception for Marcus Peters while he's guarding the league's best wide out Antonio Brown, and a huge smile on millions of Chiefs fans' faces when Jamaal Charles takes the field for the first time this season.

No matter what happens, let's enjoy the return of #25 tonight. Every snap Jamaal takes is important to NFL history.

Doug LaCerte makes fun of the Raiders on Twitter @DLaC67, and he still uses his Facebook page to hustle for those sweet, sweet pageviews. 

3 Stats Each For the Optimists and Pessimists

A perfect record through the third week of the season has Chiefs Kingdom riled up and ready for Sunday's home game against the win-less New York Giants. Though some fans are already drifting to sleep with playoff visions swirling around in their eager minds, others are beginning to notice chinks in the armor. This team has a disproportionate ratio of believers to naysayers, but sadly, the skeptics present valid points. Today, I offer three messages each for the overly-optimistic Chiefs fan and the justifiably paranoid critic in an effort to (once again) simultaneously curb enthusiasm and relieve the woes of doubt. Let's start with a few distressing stats, if only for the sake of finishing in a happier mood.

1- A seemingly much-improved offensive line has allowed the 10^th most sacks and tackles for a loss in the NFL. The offense is losing an average of 11 yards per game on sacks, which is middle-of-the-road for the league so far this year.

Eric Fisher's effectiveness will be a huge factor in determining the success of this offense. That right tackle position is crucial in almost any situation- deep pass protection, setting up big run plays and earning YAC with short passes. His inability to seal the right side led to sacks and collapsed pockets on several occasions Thursday night. Fletcher Cox and Connor Barwin made him truly look like a rookie for the first time. Fisher did better in Dallas against a presumably stronger defense, so it leaves one to wonder. Only time will tell if the Philly defense is better than most assumed it would be, or if Fisher has trouble with that specific defensive scheme.

2- While a win's a win, the last two wins looked ugly on the offensive side of the ball. The Chiefs showed signs of weakness against a mediocre defense on Sunday, then again against a downright bad defense on Thursday in Philadelphia. Only the Raiders and the Rams have scored fewer points against teams the Chiefs have played this season. Thank goodness for a badass defense, which we'll get into later this week.

3- In a league dominated by passing and elite quarterbacks, KC's Alex Smith has thrown for 669 yards, ranking 24^th overall in the NFL. That's 474 yards behind the league leader in pass yards, Peyton Manning. Although fans know the teams' strengths lie elsewhere, it's still unsettling to think that the offense is producing only 58% of the passing yardage as our most significant divisional rival.

So sure, the offense has shown the fans its ugly side. It's a finesse-y kind of system that can look really bad without the proper rhythm. Alex Smith hasn't thrown for more than 275 yards in a single game, and that probably won't change much. That doesn't mean it can't do enough to win- but shit, we already knew that. 3-0 baby! Let's not forget the things that got the Chiefs this far without a loss.

1- Jamaal is one catch behind Matt Forte for the most receptions by a running back this year. For all the fans praying that 25 wouldn't be under-utilized, this may be the most promising stat of all. His limited, but consistent production running the ball will only get better over time- both through the season, and through each game. Andy Reid's strategy to slice through tired defenses with Jamaal in the 4^th quarter is a wise one. Whether Charles is catching the ball out of the backfield, lining up in the slot or running the ball traditionally, he will continue to be the bread and butter of this offense. That's comforting to anyone who cares about Chiefs football.

2- Zero turnovers. Still. That gives KC the best turnover ratio in the league at -9, and that's after two defenses got consistent pressure on Alex Smith. The Giants will prove to be an intriguing challenge, and the Texans will strike fear in the hearts of any O-line in the league. But, who else is going to put more pressure on the QB than that? This offense overcame one of their biggest tests on the schedule against Dallas, even if they just barely earned a passing grade.

3- Well, they're 3-0. That's a big deal. 75% of teams in the modern era that start the season with three straight wins reach the playoffs. The rest of the season looks to be moderately difficult at worst, and the Broncos are the only team on the schedule still without a loss. The door to the playoffs is wide open, and only Peyton's massive head stands in the way.

I'll be back later in the week to explain how this upcoming match-up against the Giants epitomizes the phrase “trap game”. Until then, let's forget about all that skepticism and enjoy the fact that the team is undefeated and KC's playoff chances look great. Let's save our negativity for that sad, fateful Sunday when we lose to the Browns (no way) or the Raiders (please don't.)

Season Preview- September

Another major moment in the offseason that often goes unmentioned is the release of the new schedule. Sports media gets clogged with Draft Day talk and free agency moves at this time of year. People make plans to watch with friends or family. Folks gather together in crowded bars, watching Draft Day pregame analysis and enjoying Draft Day drink specials. Sadly, no corks were popped for the important announcement of which teams stand in the way of your favorite club's ascension to greatness. Now that fans know who and when they play, the hypothesizing and the fantasizing become all-the-more concrete. Even with the regular season being over four months away, that's still something to appreciate. So, let's run through Kansas City's 2013 schedule. With free agent acquisitions to look at and Draft Day looming near, there are plenty of things to talk about aside from the new schedule, but I'm doing it anyway. So, we'll take it one month at a time, and that means today we'll be looking forward to September.

Before we get started, just let it be known that I reserve the right to change any game predictions I make here, right up until the moment that game begins. Lots of things can happen, and we've got an entire draft yet to come- as if ESPN could possibly let you forget. I promise I'm not especially flip-floppy. I just want to be thorough.

Week 1- Chiefs at Jaguars, September 8^th

The season starts with a real bang as the league's two worst teams clash in Jacksonville. Last year's Jags offense ranks above only the Cardinals and the last-place Chiefs in points scored. With MJD starting only 5 games, their rushing offense was the 3^rd worst league-wide. To top it all off, they couldn't stop anyone on defense, either. Jacksonville allowed the 3^rd most yards and the 3^rd most points in 2012. The only disparaging thing about those statistics are just how similar they are to the Chiefs last season. However, the changes that the Jaguars made do not serve the optimist as well as the changes made in Kansas City. It's reasonable to assume that the Reid-Dorsey rebuilding process will turn out better than.... whatever they're doing down there in Jacksonville. They could have an A+ draft and still be worse on paper than Kansas City is right now.

Prediction: The Chiefs start the season with a comfortable win and a lot of momentum to bring back to Arrowhead.

Week 2- Chiefs vs. Cowboys, September 15^th

This year's home opener should be intriguing and difficult. This is one of many games that will be much easier to decide after the draft. If the Chiefs supplement the secondary with a 2^nd or 3^rd round pick that makes an immediate impact, I may be predicting a win here in the future. Otherwise, it could be too tough to stop last year's 3^rd best passing offense. Andy has plenty of experience coaching against Dallas, but has always struggled to stop Romo and Company from advancing the ball through the air at their leisure.

Prediction: Jamaal should have a good enough outing to slow things down and keep scoring lower than expected. The game will be decided by a key turnover, and unfortunately, it will probably come from a member of Dallas' talented secondary. The Chiefs lose, and the fans have visions in their sleep of all the interceptions from years past. Many awaken in the dead of night, drenched in a cold sweat, rubbing their eyes furiously, trying in vain to erase the blurry images of Steve Bono and Matt Cassel still lingering in their tortured minds. I shudder at the thought.

Week 3- Chiefs at Eagles, September 19^th

This should be interesting. Andy Reid takes his new team to his old home as the Chiefs take on Philadelphia. It's hard to say right now what Chip Kelly will make of the pieces left over from Andy's era, but there is still plenty of talent in Philly right now. Assuming Vick starts next year, the new-look Eagles could be the NFL's equivalent of a Run and Gun offense. A dynamic offense that stretches the field vertically and challenges the edges with rushing speed isn't too hard to imagine. That all sounds great to a starving Eagles fan-base- that is, until their star QB gets hurt, again, and leaves their team to flounder in mediocrity, again.

Prediction: If Vick starts, the Eagles will get off to an early lead. Then, he'll get hurt, and when Nick Foles comes in to make Philly's offense predictable again, KC turns things around for an exciting comeback win on the road. If Vick doesn't start, said predictability from the Eagles offense should allow the Chiefs to outscore Philly for a slightly more comfortable victory.

Week 4- Chiefs vs. Giants, September 29^th

The Giants come into town this fall with a grudge and a lot of previous success. Even in a down year, New York's offense ranked 6^th in 2012. The passing and rushing game ranked 12^th and 13^th respectively, and improving on those stats may prove difficult this year. Without Ahmad Bradshaw, or a clear answer at tight end, New York has a lot of work to do to improve through the draft and free agency. Even with all the changes on the offensive side of the ball, the defense was clearly what kept the G-Men out of the playoffs. They gave up the 5^th most yards through the air and the 8^th most yards through the ground last year. So, does this mean the newly revamped Chiefs offense can edge out an important win against Eli and the Giants?

Prediction: No. It doesn't. The Giants' front office has successfully retooled the team several times to get them well-equipped for a playoff run. They could draft Eifert from Notre Dame to give Eli another legitimate passing threat, or they could improve their defense and return to their former days of defensive dominance. Either way, the staff in New York will do enough to make the team successful, and Eli will have enough firepower to abuse a KC secondary that will inevitably go through some growing pains.

So, according to these very flimsy predictions, the Chiefs end the month with a .500 record, but are winless at Arrowhead. Hopefully, those losing predictions were hogwash, because losing those home games will do little to improve the formerly intimidating crowd factor. On-again, off-again fans of KC football won't see the off-the-field moves that put this team in a great position to be a contender for years to come. They'll see two losses at home, and a lot of sad fans. Like I said, I hope I'm wrong and Arrowhead has every reason to explode this September. Sadly, two of the toughest games on the league's 5th-easiest schedule are difficult, early games at home.

Thankfully, winning in October should be much more feasible. With games against the Titans, Raiders and Browns, KC should be turning things around before All Hallow's Eve. Next week, we'll break down all the October match-ups. Stay tuned for more free agent analysis and draft day speculation.

The Answer (Probably)

Here it is, everyone. Here's the big news we've all been waiting for- the answer to the biggest question concerning Kansas City football. The Chiefs have chosen their new quarterback, and agreed to terms to bring him to KC. Probably.

Since San Fran officially announced a willingness to trade Alex Smith, the Chiefs have clearly emerged as the team with the most interest. According to Greg Rosenthal of NFL.com, the deal between Smith and KC is “all but done.” A few hours after this news broke, Jason LaCanfora of CBS Sports tweeted that the 49ers told other interested teams that a deal involving Smith was “effectively complete. Can't be finalized til league year begins 3/12.” This followed several other tweets from around the league that were essentially announcements from teams pulling out of negotiations for the San Fran QB. By late Sunday night, Kansas City appeared to be the only candidate still in the race.

If it's all true, the search is over. The new franchise QB is here- or at least, he'll be here on March 12^th. We can all move on from the QB situation once and for all. Probably.

In another NFL.com report, Ian Rapaport mentions that because of the odd situation in San Francisco last year, the Chiefs know that Alex “won't tear the place apart if he's replaced.” That's a very important and understated point. Several sources have pointed out Reid's interest in using the first draft pick on offensive lineman Luke Joeckel. However, with this move the Chiefs leave themselves the option to draft whichever 2^nd or 3^rd round QB catches their attention. If Ryan Nassib or Matt Barkley or Tyler Bray become the apple in Andy's eye, the Chiefs can still grab him, probably in the 2^nd round. Probably.

Everything is still up in the air, unfortunately. Who knows how we'll use our 2^nd round without knowing the 1^st round pick? We could trade down and change the draft order. We could trade the 2^nd round pick in free agency. It could be gone already; for all we know, the Chiefs already traded the 2^nd round draft pick for Alex Smith and signed the official/unofficial contract.

Since every theory is built on a foundation of probable-truths and hearsay, nothing will be clear fact until we hear it from the mouth of someone within the Chiefs organization. At the very earliest, this would come on March 12^th, the technical start to the new football year. For now though, it seems as if all the rumors and all the reading between-the-lines point to Smith being the answer. With the mediocre Matt Flynn and the untested Nick Foles* as the other legitimate options in free agency, Alex Smith seems to be the optimal choice. As much as I can read into it, Smith is coming to Kansas City, and the Chiefs made the best decision possible for this situation.

You know, probably.

* The Foles/Chiefs situation has supposedly ended with another stern rejection from the Philadelphia front office. According to USA Today, the Eagles reiterated to Reid on Saturday that Foles was not currently on the market. Why they said this publicly the first time while simultaneously naming their price is still a worthy question. Nonetheless, it seems Foles is officially off the list. That is, until a few weeks from now, when free agency begins, draft stocks shift, and every team's long-term plans become more concrete. Don't let the strong posturing fool you- if Smith isn't coming to Kansas City, Foles still looms in the shadows as an intriguing dark-horse. 

The Answer (Maybe)

The search is on for the new Chief's QB, and a new front-runner just emerged. Andy Reid is dancing a rather awkward dance with the front office in Philadelphia at this moment. Maybe it's less of a waltz and more of a slow-paced boxing match at this point, with Andy waiting to counter after Philadelphia's latest moves. As the hearsay spread that Reid and Co. weren't interested in acquiring Michael Vick, the Eagles resigned him to a one-year extension for $7 million.

It seems like Vick was waiting for an invite from Reid, and he never got one.

News broke earlier this week that Reid and the Chiefs have interest in Eagles QB Nick Foles. This would be the first proverbial counter-punch that Reid threw in response to Philly re-signing Vick and also hiring QB Dennis Dixon to compete with him (and Foles, so they say) for the starting job. Andy was responsible for Foles' hiring in the previous draft, where he picked him in the 3^rd round and saw enough potential in Nick to start him in 6 games. In those six games, Foles completed more than 60% of his 265 pass attempts and recorded a TD/INT ratio of 6/5. After Vick posted a positive ratio for touchdowns and picks 4 out of his 10 games and completed below 58.1% of his passes, many Eagles fans were left hoping for Foles to return as their starter. Even now, that may happen.

The Eagles front office is simultaneously telling the press that they aren't considering trading Foles AND letting the league know it would take at least a 1^st or 2^nd round pick to pique their interest. Whenever you hear business talk like that, chances are the two parties are about to, you know, do business together. So, don't let the lofty valuations or bargaining jargon fool you- Foles is on the market, and the Chiefs want him. This is all part of the dance/fist-fight that will quite possibly end with Foles starting his next season in red.

The question now isn't whether Foles is available- it's whether he can be had for a reasonable exchange. The Eagles are reading off page one of the Haggling for Dummies handbook and setting the bar high as their first step of negotiations. There's been no word from either side, at least not publicly, about what else Philly would take in exchange for their possible 3rd-string QB. All the faith is with Reid here, both from the fans and, presumably, from the front office in KC. He knows Foles, so his valuation of him in the current market will determine what happens next. If he can convince Philly to part with their third-string QB for a reasonable price, Foles becomes the answer to the Chiefs' most important question. If the Eagles can't make it worth it for Reid and Kansas City, we'll go right back to the drawing board to further analyze all the Smiths and Flynns and Barkleys out there.

Reid will hopefully never reach the Big Brother levels of secrecy that Pioli has in years past. Every team, however, (or more to my point, every business) keeps certain things under wraps and out of the public eye for good reasons. Things have been quiet since Saturday. Too quiet. Just the fact that Reid's interest in Foles went public seems a telling sign of at least partial commitment to that plan. I have a feeling that Foles will be here in KC next year- whether or not he will start is an entirely different debate.

So, what do you think? What would you offer to Philly in return for Foles? Do you think Foles is the real answer at franchise QB? Do you think I'm moronic for one reason or another? Let me know in the comments section. You can be as honest and mean as you want, guys, it's the internet.