Can KC Cover Sizeable Spread By Dominating Doomed Dolphins?

This week's opponent for the Kansas City Chiefs provides the perfect example of what not to do as a football franchise. The Miami Dolphins are highly likely to stink for at least two years. They lost by two touchdowns to the Raiders in Week 1, then the 49ers blew them out last week. They have some really ugly team stats I'll show you here soon, and it's probably because they have to pay a guy who isn't on their roster.

I'm not blaming Tua Tagovailoa for signing the contract. In fact, credit is owed to him and his representation for cooking that thing up and getting it done. The Dolphins are paying Tua $99.2 million over the next two years just to go away. That's insane in a league where every team has a strict budget of $272.5 million this season. It is also more money than the Miami Marlins spent on their entire 2026 payroll. This has forced the franchise to make cost-effective roster choices that made them bad at almost everything so far this season.

The Dolphins offense is averaging the fifth-fewest yards and second-fewest points per game through two games. As Miami analyst Chris Kouffman pointed out, 47% of their offensive linemen snaps are going to back-ups, which is a way higher rate than any winning team in the league. The defense is allowing 31 points per game, the fourth-most in the league, and Miami has recorded zero sacks. Meanwhile, the Chiefs scored 31 or more in both their first games, and they lead the league in total yards per game with 457.5. 

It's starting to get late early for Miami, and I can't avoid thinking it has something to do with the huge check they're cashing for Atlanta Falcons back-up quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. This year's cap hit for letting him go is $55.2 million. That's enough to pay Josh Allen to actually play for the team. That's enough to pay off this year's salaries for Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake May, Geno Smith, and throw in two years of Kenneth Walker III. If things get tough for the Chiefs at any point this season, just try to remind yourself how much worse things could be.  

Maybe finding greatness in a future #1 overall draft pick can bring an end to the misery in Miami, but it isn't ending today. Andy Reid could use this live action to test out some younger guys and give the veterans a rest in the Florida heat, but not before this one is decidedly in Kansas City's control. I'm predicting a comfy 34-17 victory for the Chiefs.

Can KC's Superb Secondary Disrupt Dangerous Dolphins on Wild Card Weekend?

A uniquely frigid setting for history-making football awaits the Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins at Arrowhead Stadium tonight. Much digital ink was spilled detailing the historically cold temperatures for this Wild Card Weekend in KC, but credit goes to @SBBreakers for the tweets of the week. The original has all the details, but the main takeaways are that the Mahomes-era Chiefs are undefeated in weather below 18 degrees, and Miami is winless in their 11 games played in temperatures below 40 degrees since 2017. That's bad news for a Dolphins team that already looked pedestrian facing the Chiefs in Germany a couple months ago. I can't remember the exact temperature in Frankfurt that day, but I really don't think the wind chill was expected to dip below -15 like it will in KC tonight.

The Chiefs defeated Miami 21-14 that day, and numerous Dolphins currently dealing with injuries helped Miami keep that game close. Bradley Chubb strip-sacked Patrick Mahomes for a fumble on a crucial third down. Chubb's out for the season. Xavien Howard helped Miami's secondary disrupt KC's passing offense so much that Chiefs tight end Noah Gray led his team in receiving yards with 34. Howard is also unavailable for tonight's game. Miami's leading rusher in that mid-season game, Raheem Mostert, is also struggling with a knee injury that left him limited in participation in his latest practice.

One impact player on Miami's offense that should enter today's game with relatively sound health is former Chiefs receiver Tyreek Hill, who had 63 receiving yards and a key fumble in the aforementioned November meeting with Kansas City. He's actually done more damage to KC's defense than most other elite receivers this season. The Chiefs held Philly's A.J. Brown to one catch for eight receiving yards, Buffalo's Stefon Diggs to four catches for 24 and Bengal Ja'Marr Chase to 3 for 41. The numbers, and Trent McDuffie being named as a first team All-Pro, prove that the Chiefs can shut down the best weapons from any passing offense in football. 

Another key difference between today's Miami-KC matchup and the last one is the availability of Chiefs linebacker Nick Bolton. The nasty weather won't help Miami's passing attack, and it will likely lead to more plays designed to safely get Tyreek the ball with room to run. In moments like this, on jet sweeps and bubble screens and whatnot, the opposing defense relies heavily on their linebackers to get to the right spot and make timely tackles. This is Nick Bolton's forte. Having him healthy today, when circumstances dictate that the opponent's offensive game plan be built to attack his position, is a highly underrated advantage for Kansas City. With his help, the Chiefs only need to perform up to their normal standard and avoid crucial mistakes in order to secure the victory tonight.

Those crucial mistakes, however, weren't so easy to avoid in the regular season. KC finished the season tied for the fourth-worst turnover differential and tied for the most offensive holding penalties in the NFL this season. Four different teams did not surpass the eight holding penalties drawn solely by Chiefs left tackle Jawaan Taylor. These kinds of things leave the door open for disappointment. I still think the Chiefs can overcome them, though. I'm predicting a memorable and gritty 20-13 victory for KC.

Rapidly Reviewing Chiefs' Likeliest, Luckiest Possible Playoff Opponents

The Kansas City Chiefs face off with the Los Angeles Chargers in their final regular season game this afternoon, but Chiefs Kingdom will be more focused on at least two other games taking place today. Results from the noon game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans and the night game between the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills will shape this season's playoff tournament. If Miami loses to Buffalo, the Dolphins will face the Chiefs next week in the Wild Card round. Wins from the Dolphins and Jaguars would give the Houston Texans the #6 seed and the Chiefs as playoff opponents next week. If the Jags lose and the Dolphins beat the Bills, that spot goes to the Pittsburgh Steelers. In the highly unlikely event of a tie in the Dolphins-Bills game, the Bills become KC's next opponent. 

Miami is the only team out of these four that already punched their ticket to the playoffs. The Dolphins also have the best odds at facing KC next week. ESPN Analytics gives Buffalo a 54.4% chance to win tonight. The same formula gives the Jags a 57.1% chance to beat Tennessee. Do Chiefs fans want to see Miami in the playoffs, or should we be rooting for another team to sneak into that spot? 

I personally wouldn't fear the Dolphins or Texans too much, but all Chiefs fans should be cheering for the Tennessee Titans today. A Titans win and a Dolphins win would be the best-case scenario for KC, who would be heavily favored against the Pittsburgh Steelers next week in that scenario. Now that T.J. Watt is out with a sprained MCL, Pittsburgh doesn't have a single player that scares opponents as much as Tyreek Hill or C.J. Stroud. 

The big question is whether or not Tennessee can survive a game with the desperate Jags. The Titans score the fifth-fewest points per game in the NFL, and promising rookie QB Will Levis is out today with a foot injury. Despite fighting through his own injuries lately, Jacksonville's Trevor Lawrence looks ready to play. Jacksonville beat the Titans by 20 in Week 10. Pro Football Focus ranked the Titans as the worst offensive line in football entering Week 18, which could be bad news when facing off against Jacksonville's stud pass-rusher Josh Allen, who ranks third league-wide in total sacks this season.

So, the Titans may not get it done for us, but that's okay. Baltimore is honestly the only AFC team I would predict to beat the Chiefs in the playoffs right now, and we don't need to worry about that for at least a couple weeks. I'm predicting wins for the Jags and Dolphins, which would mean I'm predicting that the Chiefs will face the Texans in the first round of the playoffs. C.J. Stroud looks dangerous, but that's a topic for another day. Enjoy cheering for Blaine Gabbert and Ryan Tannehill today, Chiefs Kingdom. I definitely didn't have that on my bingo card this season.

Potential MVPs Meet Overseas as KC, Miami Face Off in Frankfurt

8:30 AM Central Time feels way too damn early for meaningful NFL football. Can't we just make the Europeans go to their stadium when it's proper football-time here in the country that we all know matters the most? The 6-2 Kansas City Chiefs face the 6-2 Miami Dolphins in Frankfurt, Germany at what seems like the crack of dawn. The Dolphins headed across the Pacific with well-earned confidence after beating three of their last four opponents by at least two touchdowns. The vibes for the Chiefs right now feel way, way different.

Kansas City just lost an ugly game to the Denver Broncos, thanks in large part to turning over the ball five times and finishing the game with a -4 turnover differential. Throughout the history of the NFL, teams win 2.6% of games when losing the turnover battle by four or more. Patrick Mahomes finished a game without a touchdown pass for the first time since 2021. The Chiefs haven't turned the ball over more than three times since October of '21. They haven't turned the ball over five times since that infamous 54-51 loss to the L.A Rams on November 19th, 2018.

I trust KC to at least limit the problems that plagued them last week when they face off with Miami today. The Chiefs haven't lost consecutive games since the second and third week of the '21 season. It's highly unlikely that we see Mahomes post another QBR anywhere close to his 42.5 from last week's stinker at Mile-High. Despite my very reasonable expectations of a cleaner game from the Chiefs, it's important to recognize that the Dolphins are a vastly more dangerous team than the Broncos. KC had reason to fear the Dolphins before losing Nick Bolton and finishing practice for the week without knowing Willie Gay's status for the game. Weaknesses based on those health issues, as well as the return of elite Miami cornerback Jalen Ramsey, amplified Chiefs Kingdom's sense of concern surrounding this game.

As fans, we already have the aforementioned reasons to worry, and I haven't even talked about the two potential league MVP's on the Dolphins roster yet. Tyreek Hill is on pace for one of the greatest seasons ever for a wide receiver. His resume for the NFL's Most Valuable Player award has become more and more of a talking point for fans worldwide as he gets deeper into the regular season with outstanding performances nearly every week. The guy passing to him also deserves credit for proving, at least to this point, that he is also worthy of being called elite. Tua Tagovailoa is among the three likeliest players to win MVP this year according to all seven sports-books measured by VegasInsider.com's recent report. Just like with the MVP betting odds, Mahomes and Tua both rank between first and third league-wide in passing yards, touchdown passes and total QBR this season. 

KC's secondary should give them the advantage as two of the best QB's in football face off in Frankfurt today. The Chiefs secondary continues to prove itself as one of the NFL's best, and I believe (and hope) that they'll be the difference-makers. L'Jarius Sneed, Trent McDuffie and Justin Reid in particular are among the league's most efficient at stopping opposing wide receivers. The aforementioned Dolphins corner Jalen Ramsey is still capable of being the league's absolute best at his position, but Miami's secondary as a whole has been unimpressive. KC's secondary holds their opponents to only 176.1 passing yards per game this season - the second-lowest average in football. The Dolphins' average of 221.5 passing yards allowed per game ranks 16th in that category.

I expect the Chiefs to limit their mistakes this week and play more like the prolific passing team we know they can be. Just remember that if the Chiefs can limit themselves to one Mahomes interception, one Chiefs receiver fumble after completing a catch and one Mecole Hardman muffed punt, they would still only suffer 60% of the self-inflicted damage they burdened themselves with last week. That game was clearly an improbably disaster that should not decide how the Chiefs are perceived moving forward. If this dynasty of a team can't earn a fan's trust, no team can.

While the Chiefs have earned the trust of the Kingdom, 'phins fans still cannot be so sure. Miami has played two teams that currently have winning records and been comfortably handled by both of them. Their wins all came against teams who have losing records at this point of the season and look destined for a top-five pick in next year's draft. Tyreek may scare the hell out of his former fans in KC today, but I'm predicting a thrilling 28-27 victory for the Chiefs.

Will Mahomes Magic Lose Luster In Louisiana?

    Kansas City tantalizes viewers with the possibility of seeing an offense capable of being the best of all time, but they undoubtedly have their work cut out for them this afternoon in Louisiana. We know today's game is a potential preview of the Kansas City Chiefs' next chance at a championship, but the Chiefs still has playoff seeding to worry about, and the New Orleans Saints are well-built to exploit KC's few weaknesses. 

    The Chiefs just overcame an elite defense last Sunday, but this week's opponent is a different kind of dominant. The Miami Dolphins defense represented a unique obstacle for the Chiefs. When they forced Patrick Mahomes into throwing two early picks, it represented his worst start to an NFL game in his entire career. After forcing a fumble and another pick in the second half, the Dolphins are now tied with Pittsburgh for the league's most takeaways. The only team on KC's schedule who allows fewer points per game than the Saints are those pesky Dolphins, but Miami's averages for rushing yards, passing yards and total yards allowed are all subpar. The Saints rank fourth or better in all of those categories, and only three teams in football allow fewer points per game. New Orleans excels in the turnover department, too. Only six teams in the NFL have better turnover differentials, and only six teams have more takeaways.

    The weakest part of KC's current roster will square off with one of the strongest parts of this stacked Saints roster. David Onyemata, Cameron Jordan and Trey Hendrickson consistently pressure opposing QB's without the need for extra blitzers. Vereran Chiefs offensive lineman Mike Remmers will miss today's game due to a back injury. Another back injury forced former #1 overall pick Eric Fisher to miss practice time early in the week, and he is currently listed as questionable. This just adds to damage already done to KC"s depleted offensive line. t's such a glaring advantage for the Saints that it almost made me predict a victory for New Orleans today. However, with studly Saints receiver Michael Thomas on the injury report and the Honey Badger on a rampage, I still give the edge to KC.

    Tyrann Mathieu brings fire and poise to this Chiefs defense that gradually galvanized them into one of football's best. That's not to mention the six interception for Mathieu, which is most among all safeties and third-most among everyone in the league. Tyrann's importance cannot be understated and will not be lost on a Chiefs fan who lived through a year of a similarly great Chiefs offense being held back by a Bob Sutton defense. Patrick Mahomes was still a fantastic quarterback that year, but our Chiefs' defensive woes will forever leave me lingering on what-ifs, because KC couldn't win it all without a better defense. The same improvements on defense that led the Chiefs to a championship last season lead me to predict an entertaining 30-27 victory for Kansas City when they visit the Saints today.

Mahomes Must Avoid Forced Fumbles To Defeat Dolphins

Today is not the day for the Kansas City Chiefs to let their guard down. The 8-4 Miami Dolphins enter this game hungry to prove themselves and add a victory over the champs to their resume. How scared should Chiefs Kingdom really be of Tua, or perhaps more accurately, of this Dolphins defense?

Starting at noon today, we'll see the #2 scoring offense in the NFL facing off against the league's #2 scoring defense. We'll also see perhaps the best cornerback in football in Miami's Xavien Howard lining up against the best deep threat in football in KC's Tyreek Hill. Facing off against an excellent secondary could translate to big games for Chiefs pass-catchers that aren't playing the role of #1 and #2 wide receiver. That means the effectiveness of Travis Kelce and Mecole Hardman could make or break the Chiefs offense today. While elite talent forces the Chiefs to adjust their offensive scheme, a history-changing global crisis will alter Miami's plan on offense.

COVID-19 is sadly blame for Miami's serious disadvantage against our Chiefs today. Said virus rendered two of Miami's three top running backs unable to play, and the third is sidelined with a shoulder injury. That clearly gives our Chiefs a major advantage in the hours to come, but this Dolphins team wins games they should not. Miami's Week 8 win over the legit Los Angeles Rams is my main piece of evidence.

Rams pressure forced a Tua fumble early in this midseason meeting that came after Miami's bye week and represents the beginning of the Tagovailoa Era for the 'Phins faithful. A Jared Goff pick shortly thereafter gave Miami the ball and good field position, and this led to Tua's first career TD pass. Then, with the game still tied, Myles Gaskin fumbled on first down within 10 yards of his own endzone. This definitely doesn't sound like the description of a game that the Dolphins won by multiple possessions, but it happened. Miami's defense forced four turnovers from Jared Goff, and Jakeem Grant ran back an 88-yard punt for a Dolphins touchdown. Every Dolphins drive in the second half of that game resulted in a punt, yet they beat the Rams by 11.

The Dolphins had a healthy Gaskin and a healthy Matt Breida that day, but Tua and that tandem combined for only 60 rushing yards. It wasn't a strong running game that helped Miami defeat one of the league's best that week. Turnovers were the reason Miami pulled that one off, and they're now tied with three other teams for the fourth-best turnover differential in the NFL. KC's +11 differential ties them with Pittsburgh for the league's best. Enjoy the fact that the Chiefs' trajectory still points to greatness, but prepare yourself for a close game today.

Prepare to be upset when Tua scrambles and makes plays by exploiting the Chiefs' imperfect core of linebackers. Prepare for impressive pass-catching tight end Mike Gesicki to frustrate the entire Kingdom by helping Tua do so. I think that duo will be enough to keep things competitive today, but I also think a well-prepared Chiefs team should beat these Dolphins more often than not. I predict a hard-fought 30-24 victory for the Chiefs. If Miami's new golden boy at QB is the real deal, this will serve as only Scene 1 in the long, enjoyable story of Patrick vs. Tua.

Kansas City Chiefs Something Something Bad Christmas Pun!

Our Kansas City Chiefs are one victory away from making their place in the playoffs official. The visiting Miami Dolphins are kinda-sorta-not-really in the hunt if about 12 things go right and they win out, but on paper, they're an objectively sub-par opponent. The Dolphins rank in the bottom three in the league in yards per game, points per game, giveaways and turnover differential. They hold opponents to 24.4 points per game, which is the league's sixth-highest average. The Dolphins allow the 9th-highest average yardage per play this season, but hey, our Chiefs are #8. If you're looking for something to fear today, KC's defense allowing big plays would be #1. Speaking of numbering things, here are my three quick predictions for what I hope to be our final real regular season game for our Chiefs this season:

1. Those giveaway stats for Miami are just damning. KC has 14 picks this year, and the Dolphins have already given the ball away 26 times. A determined, focused Marcus Peters could feast today. I predict that KC will win the turnover battle by at least two, which will making winning at Arrowhead really tough for the 'Phins.

2. The aforementioned inability to stop teams from scoring is another key to what makes Miami an objectively bad team this season. The obvious choice to pass to Tyreek Hill whenever a cornerback plays press coverage without safety help will bring us more holiday cheer today, even if it's not Hill who gives us that gift himself. He could pull safeties down to double him, which will leave other parts of the field open for KC's other playmakers. I predict a Chiefs passing gain of over 50 yards today from either Hill, Kareem Hunt on a wheel or screen route, or Travis Kelce deep over the middle.

3. The Alex Smith-Matt Nagy duo definitely got this KC offense back on track after Andy Reid seemingly derailed it throughout that pitiful mid-season skid. KCChiefs.com's BJ Kissel pointed out that this new play-calling hierarchy averages 439 yards and 29 points per game, which is third-best and fifth-best in the league over that stretch. KC will be determined to keep their mojo offensively, but justified conservatism may limit their numbers today. This is a terrible time to get any more Chiefs injured, so if KC jumps out to an early lead, we could see some serious clock-milking. This is the correct decision at this time of the season, fantasy leagues be damned. So, I'll predict a 24-16 victory for our Chiefs, with somewhere between 360-440 total yards of offense. Enjoy your holidays, Chiefs Kingdom. We should soon be celebrating Christmas as champions of the AFC West.

Doug LaCerte has a Facebook page and occasionally tweets @DLaC67.

Wait...Is It Football Season?

The recent success of the Kansas City Royals got me thinking about something strange regarding this 2014 Chiefs season. In my limited time as a sports journalist, doom and gloom and disappointment made up at least a slight majority of the job. Despite reaching the playoffs in the first year of the Reid/Dorsey regime in 2013, we all know what happened to end that dream and leave us all with nightmares all through the offseason. At this point, it's too late to go back and reminisce on that historically pathetic defeat, but last Sunday the Tennessee Titans helped to prolong the pang of pain in the gut of every Chiefs fan.

As the Chiefs stumbled out of the regular season gates, I switched back channels continuously to my first place Royals as they held the Bronx Bombers scoreless on Derek Jeter Day. KC won that important series and claimed their first season series win against the New York Yankees since 1999. With the Royals now nearing the middle of September with a great chance to make the playoffs, I started to wonder if all my experience reacting to disappointment and failure would wind up going unused this year. Thanks to our Kansas City Chiefs, I now have no need to worry.

The first half of KC's first game mostly told the story of rust and regression. It all began promisingly enough- Jamaal scampered untouched for a smooth first down on KC's first drive. Dustin Colquitt buried the opposing offense inside their own ten yard-line, as he so often does, and Tennessee's first snap resulted in a false start in front of a wild Arrowhead crowd. Even when Cairo Santos bounced in his first NFL field goal, we thought KC could shake it off and be happy with a slim early lead. The Chiefs did follow this up with a long completion to promising TE Travis Kelce, after all. Then, there goes Santos again for attempt #2...

From that doink on, KC's numerous questionable areas of the roster were exposed. An apparently downgraded secondary eventually gave way to a single touchdown that gave the Titans the lead, if only because of Kansas City's complete failure to reach the end-zone. Chiefs fans had a few positives to take to halftime- most of them being sacks from key defensive stars- but the second half failed to bring amy significant improvement from the offense.

This team isn't as awful as many Chiefs fans will believe following this ugly loss, but there's a fundamental problem with making that argument; I still don't think the Chiefs are good enough to make a playoff run this year. This season's schedule, as we'll review in the coming week, is undeniably harsh, and nobody can seem to find an area in which KC legitimately improved their roster. It's no wonder to me why I keep trailing off mentally during analysis of this blowout to daydream about the next Royals game.

Here's the good news: the Chiefs held a sneaky-good Titans offense scoreless for over thirty minutes of game-time. The bad news was, you know, the rest of the game. The worse news is the terrifying feasibility of the Chiefs falling into a huge hole early this season. Kansas City's next six opponents include five playoff teams from last season and the Miami Dolphins, who just beat New England by double-digits. This goes without mentioning the two awful, season-ending injuries to Mike Devito and Derrick Johnson.

Losing in such an embarrassing fashion surprised many, but to avoid falling to 0-7, the Chiefs have to pull off an equally surprising upset against a superior opponent. So, why not do it next week in Denver? Stay tuned in the next few days for analysis of that upcoming inspirational upset victory/ humiliating bloodbath defeat.

Doug LaCerte operates this blog, writes for Rant Sports and occasionally speaks of himself in third-person for the sake of fake professionalism. Feed his fickle ego by following him on Twitter @DLaC67, troll him on Facebook and add him to your network on Google, because they're gonna make you use that shit, anyway.