Can Browning's Bengals Bring Bummer Ending To KC's 2023?

When was the last time the vibes in Chiefs Kingdom felt this low? Losing a Super Bowl is frustrating, of course, but the Kansas City Chiefs performed impressively in practically every moment until the Big Game at the end of the season. I'm more thinking about fear than frustration, I suppose. With two games left in the season, the Chiefs already have six losses. The lack of fan confidence (at least this fan's confidence) entering this game against a backup QB and a team not expected to reach the playoffs tells you all you need to know about the Chiefs' vulnerability at this point.

The Cincinnati Bengals are one loss away from effectively ending their season. If Cincy wins their final two games and gets help from other 8-7 teams ahead of them in the Wild Card hunt, Jake Browning's Bengals could sneak into the playoffs. They're alive, but just barely; their chances are at or below 20%, depending on which proprietary stat you choose to use for a measuring stick. Chiefs recently lost to other desperate teams fighting for their playoff lives when they faced the Packers and Bills, so should Cincy scare KC today? The Raiders didn't scare anybody last week, and they embarrassed KC on Christmas.

Football can be weird. Raiders QB Aidan O'Connell posted an 88.8 QBR in his first meeting with the Chiefs this season, and the Raiders lost by 14. He just posted a 12.1 QBR on the Chiefs - on Christmas, at Arrowhead - and the Chiefs lost by six. This Christmas day, a fumble on a trick play and a pick-six occurred within seven seconds of game-time. Before ten seconds could run off the clock, the Raiders defense scored as much as the Chiefs would score all day. That's a testament to the occasional flukiness of football, but it's also more evidence that KC's offense has not figured out how to pull their team out of the fire when it matters most.

Mahomes still has his magical moments, but on paper, he looks like a totally different guy since the Week 8 disaster in Denver. He had a QBR higher than 64 in all of his first seven games of this season. Since Week 8, he's only posted a QBR above 61 once. Mahomes never took more than two sacks in any of his first seven games. Since then, he's been sacked three or more times in four different games.

Five of those sacks this season were allowed by Jawaan Taylor, who also leads the NFL in penalties with 17. L'Jarius Sneed, by the way, is tied for fourth with 10 penalties, making the Chiefs the only team in the league with multiple players in the top-10 in penalties drawn. For Taylor in particular, these penalties are beyond disappointing. He just penned a four-year, $80-million contract with the Chiefs last offseason. PFF gives him a 50.1 overall grade for his efforts in 2023. Since Taylor' effectiveness is so critical to the effectiveness of Mahomes - the most important man on the field whenever he's on the field - Taylor's struggles may be the biggest and most understated factor in the recent decline of KC's offense.

All of these are factors that I believe the Chiefs will overcome today, thanks in large part to the Bengals' struggles on defense. They allow the second-most yards-per-game average, despite the best efforts of defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo. KC's defense is still holding strong with the league's second-fewest total yards, passing yards, and total points-per-game allowed. I'll predict an ugly 17-13 victory for KC. Enjoy the game with people who love football, and enjoy all the new year with people who love you.

Can KC Claim Conference Crown by Beating Burrow's Boasting Bengals?

Arrowhead Stadium will soon serve as host for a major moment in NFL history, so I believe now's a proper time to remember how the Chiefs arrived at this exciting moment. The best moments of history are often made possible by its worst moments, and the history of Kansas City Chiefs football is no different. KC made the best drafting decision in franchise history when they picked Patrick Mahomes in the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft, but this was a reversal of the last three and a half decades of Chiefs strategy.

The choice to bring in Mahomes came after Kansas City declined the opportunity to draft a quarterback in the first round for 34 consecutive seasons since they went with a guy named Todd Blackledge. This QB that the Chiefs acquired during the Reagan Era never led his own team in passing yards over a single season and ended his career with a completion percentage below 50%. Blackledge would never earn a long-term starting role for any franchise, and the Chiefs would go on to finish in last place in their division in four of the six seasons following their choice to choose a QB in the draft's first round. The Chiefs failed to survive the divisional round of the playoffs in the 23 seasons since winning Super Bowl IV, until a San Francisco 49ers cast-off named Joe Montana led KC to a losing effort in the AFC Championship in 1992.

The trend of sticking with quarterbacks who got their start with other franchises continued in KC for another two and a half decades, with the likes of Steve Bono, Elvis Grbac, Trent Green, Matt Cassel and all the way up to key Mahomes mentor Alex Smith. Since Smith passed the torch to Mahomes, Kansas City has been in the hunt for a Super Bowl victory every season. It only took the franchise nearly half a century to reverse its quarterback-drafting strategy and become the incumbent dynasty of pro football. It just so happens that the QB standing in the way of more glory for KC and Mahomes is practically the only man who has successfully stopped KC every chance he's had.

Despite having serious injury issues to their offensive line last week, Joe Burrow overcame a Bills defense that many NFL experts trusted as being Super Bowl-worthy. Unfortunately for fans in KC, Joe plays the Chiefs better than he plays any other team in football. Burrow has only played one regular season game against the Atlanta Falcons, and in it he threw for 481 yards, three touchdowns and never turned the ball over while completing over 80% of his passes. Burrow has played two regular season games agains the Chiefs and somehow compiled a higher Passer Rating in those two games combined than he did in his dominating performance against the Falcons.

In the playoffs, Burrow seems less dominant against KC, with only 240 passing yards, two touchdowns and a pick in last year's AFC Championship. It wasn't Ja'Marr Chase killing KC in last year's playoff meeting, either; he only caught six out of nine passes sent his way for 54 receiving yards. It was Tee Higgins who claimed the lion's share of receiving yards that day, with 103. It was Joe's patience and ability to convert on third downs that truly killed Kansas City. 

While Joe Burrow chases Patrick Mahomes for the claim to be the league's greatest QB, Mahomes chases the all-time greats already in the history books. Otto Graham, who played in six total seasons for the Cleveland Browns from 1950-1955, is the only player in AFL-NFL history to record a higher QB winning percentage than Mahomes through at least 17 games. While Mahomes will soon claim his second league MVP award, he may also be weeks away from winning his second Super Bowl. You may already know, but it's worth repeating: the Chiefs are hosting their fifth straight AFC Championship, which is a league record. Mahomes has helped Travis Kelce become inarguably the best to ever play his position, and Mahomes has cemented Andy Reid's position as one of the five or ten greatest pro football coaches of all time. Winning this game keeps Mahomes on pace to legitimately stake his claim one day as the greatest football player ever.

All this conversation about superlatives and history books means nothing when it comes to the little things that actually decide who will achieve victory this Sunday. As much as I like waxing poetic about #15's greatness, other factors beyond his control will drastically impact who goes to the Super Bowl and who starts planning their vacation a few weeks earlier than they had hoped. A key factor to keep in mind this Sunday is Cincy's vulnerability on the offensive line due to the absences of Bengals left tackle Jonah Williams and right guard Alex Cappa.

Perhaps Buffalo failed to expose Cincy's injured offensive line, and perhaps KC learned from that mistake after seeing last week's Bills-Bengals game. KC's defense ranks 7th league-wide in opponent quarterbacks' percentage of plays hurried, 9th in quarterback knockdown percentage and 5th in pressure percentage. The Packers and Jaguars are the only other teams in football that can claim to be 9th-best or better in all those categories. Buffalo ranges between 13th and 15th in all those categories, for the record, so maybe KC's reliance on guys like Chris Jones and Frank Clark could be beneficial to Chiefs Kingdom this Sunday.  

Last year's AFC Championship game truly came down to the Chiefs' inability to score to start the second half. With a 21-10 advantage, Kansas City punted in four out of five of their next drives to start the third quarter. The other drive in there was an interception by Mahomes. Before the end of the of the third quarter, Cincy had 24 points on the board. 

One field goal in the second half simply is not enough scoring to beat a legit team like the Bengals. Only once since then has KC failed to score seven or more in any half of football, and that came in their embarrassing Week 3 loss to the Colts. If KC can simply avoid going ice-cold on offense, which is something they almost never do, they should have the advantage this time.

Despite the rivalry's recent history and concern about Mahomes' ankle, I have to predict a win for the Chiefs. I have no clue how to calculate the odds to beat a team as uniquely great as the Chiefs four times straight, but let's just say it's a uniquely difficult task to achieve. Burrow is due to flinch and make a mistake that gives the Chiefs an advantage, and Mahomes is ready to go get revenge. I'm predicting a 27-24 KC victory and another chance at Super Bowl glory for Chiefs Kingdom.

How Many MVP Candidates Can You Pay With Russell Wilson's Contract?

The Kansas City Chiefs must be hungry to show their skills after a disappointing loss to Joe Burrow's resilient Cincinnati Bengals. The Denver Broncos must be deflated after crashing to the bottom of their division thanks largely to the struggles of their well-paid Subway spokesman playing quarterback. These simple facts make this week's Chiefs-Broncos game particularly easy to analyze and predict.

The Broncos actually have terrific numbers on defense, which makes Russell Wilson's legacy-tarnishing ineffectiveness even more painful for their fans. Perhaps Denver's defensive stats are in fact skewed by how little their opponents need to score in order to win. Whatever the case may be, the Broncos allow the NFL's third-fewest total yards, third-fewest passing yards and second-fewest points per game. This represents a nearly unmatched level of prowess on that side of the ball, yet it resulted in a hopeless losing season for Denver. They're about to finish last in a division that includes a team coached by Josh McDaniels.

I know it's the trendy thing to dunk on Russell Wilson right now, but any honest analysis of this Denver team makes more dunking inescapable. Judging by any metric we could possibly use to measure quarterback performance, Wilson has been one of the five worst at his position this year. His Adjusted QBR and Passer Rating are 28th and 29th, respectively. He leads one of only five teams who have already accumulated nine losses this season. For the price Denver is paying for Russell's services, they could instead double Geno Smith's salary, pay that, and also pay Joe Burrow. Geno and Joe are on pace to get MVP votes on the new five-vote ballots. Russell is on pace to never film another sandwich commercial again. 

Wilson's ineffectiveness paired with the Chiefs' hunger to bounce back from a sobering defeat at the hands of their new arch-rivals should result in decisive victory for KC. Denver has held their opponents to 17 or fewer points in 8/12 games so far this season, so Chiefs Kingdom shouldn't be concerned if Mahomes doesn't put up 50. I'll predict a 24-16 victory for KC, and I really hope it comes in the afterglow of another New York Jets victory over the conference-leading Buffalo Bills. If the Jets can help out Chiefs Kingdom yet again, KC can regain the pole position for the #1 seed in the AFC.

I Re-Watched Last Year's AFC Championship So You Don't Have To

Last year's AFC Championship game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals broke every heart in Chiefs Kingdom. Selective memory made it genuinely difficult for me to recall specifics from that game, lest the thought of it hurt me all over again. I thought it would be wise to watch it one final time before this week's Bengals-Chiefs faceoff. The viewing experience gave me indigestion. 

It all started so well; KC's defense forces a three-and-out on the Bengals' first drive, then Mahomes immediately marches down the field for a first-drive touchdown. Cincy's offense begins moving the ball methodically on the next possession as the Chiefs fail to stop either Joe - Mixon or Burrow. The Bengals push deep into enemy territory, but KC's secondary disrupts two straight pass attempts to the end zone to force Cincinnati to kick a 32-yard field goal, resulting in a 7-3 score nearing the end of the first quarter.

KC responds with a 44-yard connection to Mecole Hardman on the first play of the following drive, which ends with a TD pass to Kelce. Cincy is quickly forced to punt on the next drive, leaving KC with a 14-3 lead and the ball with 10 minutes to play in the second half. Successful and aggressive play-calling immediately leads KC to yet another TD, this time to Hardman. It was five minutes 'til halftime and the Chiefs were up 18. I know what happened next, but how the hell did it happen? Just how?

Veteran running back Samaje Perine slips through some porous defense before the end of the first half for a quick Cincy touchdown. With a minute and a second, KC moves the ball swiftly with quick shots to Hill and Kelce. A pass interference call on Tyreek leaves the Chiefs with nine seconds and a 1st and Goal on the 1 yard-line. An incompletion leaves them five seconds. A completed pass for no gain to Tyreek leaves no time on the clock and a heavy sense of regret in the hearts of everyone in Chiefs Kingdom. Despite driving all the way to Cincinnati's 1 yard-line, the Chiefs failed to put more points on the board.

No problem though, right? The Chiefs get the ball to star the second half, and they're already up 11, so it's still all good. Then KC fails to get a single first down in this possession, and they punt. The Bengals offense responds to the roars of the Arrowhead faithful with impressive competence, until a Delay of Game penalty stifles the drive and forces a punt of their own.

The Chiefs start on their own 7 yard-line. They soon punt from the 25. Burrow, Chase and Mixon look frighteningly good as they march into Chiefs territory. KC's defense tightens up to limit Cincy to a field goal. KC gets the ball back with a lead and under five to play in the third. Everything should have been fine. 

On the second play of the possession, Mahomes feels the pressure of a blitz coming from his right, and he fires a quick pass to his left that bounces off the hands of another defender closing in on him. The ball bounces upward and lands in the hands of Bengals defensive tackle B.J Hill. This is the moment in my re-watching experience that I paused the video and went to grab some cookies. Not even the good kind, but the cheap ones, the off-brand chocolate chip cookies that only I seem to enjoy, even though they make my stomach ache. I only stoop to eating them when I have a particularly low sense of self worth. I returned to the video prepared to hurt myself in more ways than one. 

So now it's Bengals' ball with a little over two to play in the third. Before the fourth quarter begins, Cincy ties the game with a touchdown drive and two-point conversion. KC responds by going three-and-out.

 L'Jarius Sneed then brings the Arrowhead crowd to an unhealthy decibel level with an interception that quickly ends the Bengals' next possession. Despite all their stumbles, the Chiefs still had the ball in Mahomes' hands with a tie and under 14 left in regulation. The Chiefs responded to this opportunity by going three-and-out, as Mahomes is sacked on third down on consecutive possessions. 

A memorable third-down scramble from Burrow keeps the Bengals' next drive alive despite consistent pressure from KC. On consecutive third downs - both 3rd and 7 - Cincy's remarkable young QB uses his legs to move the chains. The bend-don't-break Chiefs defense gets a stop on Burrow's Bengals eventually, but not before Cincy gets in range for Evan McPherson to hit a 52-yard field goal that gives the Bengals the lead with only six minutes left in regulation.

Patrick Mahomes was made for moments like this. He nearly proves it with a long drive that gave KC a first down on Cincinnati's 4 yard-line. KC failed in ugly fashion to punch it in, but instead relied on Harrison Butker to tie the game with a 44-yarder as time expired. 

Overtime. KC wins the toss. Incomplete pass on first down. Another on second down that almost results in an interception. On third and 10, Mahomes goes deep downfield to Tyreek in double coverage. Bengals safetey Jessie Bates III gets a hand in between Hills' hands as Tyreek leaps up and reaches for the ball. Bates swats the pass away, and it lands in the hands of his fellow Bengals defender Von Bell. A Mahomes interception gives Burrow the ball in overtime.

The Chiefs defense cannot stop the Bengals on the ground or through the air. Burrow sets his team up for a 31 yarder. The kick is good. Mahomes winces as Burrow celebrates. Pleasantries are exchanged as Chiefs fans everywhere hold their reeling heads in their hands. Kansas City just scored three touchdowns on their first three drives of the game. The man with the best start to a career of anyone in the history of his position was one step away from the sport's ultimate stage, and he came up short. That hurt Chiefs Kingdom in a unique and unforgettable fashion.

Winning today would be little solace. This is only the 12th chapter of a 17-part story, and if that story goes well enough, KC gets to start a new and more important story when the playoffs begin. Only when the Bengals and Chiefs meet again when it's do-or-die will KC get a chance at true redemption. Consider this afternoon's game a tease of a bigger story yet to be told. With all that foreshadowing out of the way, we do have a slightly more technical topic to consider.

Burrow killed KC's defense in aforementioned crucial moments by using his legs on third down. I don't get paid the big bucks to know how to limit that, especially since Madden was enough to teach me that a QB spy strategy simply leaves a team one less defender to guard one of the Bengals' dangerous wide receivers. Whatever Steve Spagnuolo can think of to limit this will be utilized from now on, but it may be as simple as guys in the middle of KC's defense like Nick Bolton using their athleticism to close on Burrow ASAP on third down. Bolton's rapid improvement and the growth of Willie Gay should mean KC is better equipped at dealing with Burrow's scrambling skills this time.

I cannot predict a win for KC today. Until proven otherwise, Cincy has KC's number. Nobody knows how effective Ja'Marr Chase will be today after missing four games with a hairline fracture in his hip. Cincinnati is fresh off an exciting win over a solid Tennessee Titans team who also lost to the Bengals in the playoffs last year. The Chiefs are coming off a yawn-inducing victory over a Los Angeles Rams team who had to start their relatively unknown third-string quarterback. I'm predicting another thriller but unfortunately another defeat at the hands of Joe Burrow. 30-27, Bengals. Don't forget, though; the real test comes in January.

Can KC's AFC Supremacy Continue?

The losers of the next Chiefs game we watch will end their season devastated, regardless of how much they achieved and contrary to what they may tell the media. The winners worry only about their warm-weather packing plans, as the calm California climate of Inglewood's SoFi Stadium awaits them in two short weeks. One more Kansas City Chiefs victory is all it takes to earn them a spot in the Super Bowl. Only Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals stand in Kansas City's way. This game's got all the makings of yet another classic this afternoon, but reaching the levels of drama from last week's game would be damn difficult.

KC cannot keep giving up 36 points per playoff game, but Chiefs Kingdom is ecstatic after Kansas City outdueled the Buffalo Bills last week. Kansas City's defense focused on limiting the impact of their opponents' best wide receiver. Consequently, Stefon Diggs only caught three passes for seven yards. Implementing that same strategy today seems logical when we look back at the last time these teams faced off. Ja'Marr Chase destroyed KC's defense for over 250 receiving yards and three touchdowns only four weeks ago. Limiting the chances of that happening again was undoubtedly on Steve Spagnuolo's mind a lot this week.

Buffalo's Gabriel Davis became a legend by racking up four touchdown catches and over 200 yards receiving last Sunday, but all that still didn't stop the Chiefs from getting the job done. I believe KC can and will limit Chase, even if it means someone else goes crazy in his stead. Whether that's Tee Higgins or Tyler Boyd or some dark-horse like Gabriel Davis is irrelevant as long as key Chiefs on offense continue to improve their already-impressive playoff resumes. 

Future Hall of Famer Travis Kelce caught 8 for 96 and a game-winning score last week. That was the first playoff game he didn't finish with over 100 receiving yards since the Chiefs faced Tampa in the Super Bowl. Tyreek Hill has more ups and downs relative to the remarkably consistent Kelce, but Hill still averages over 110 receiving yards over his last six playoff games. The most obvious piece to the playoff success puzzle for this Chiefs offense is its legendary signal-caller.

Patrick Mahomes now has an 8-2 playoff record in which he completes over 66% of his passes with a 25/5 touchdown/interception rate. Mahomes has avoided throwing a pick in seven of his ten playoff appearances. Joe Shiesty looks legit in this exciting start to his playoff career, but nobody short of Joe Montana would make Mahomes the underdog in this moment. I don't even believe that Joe could outduel Mahomes right now.

That being said, Burrow gives the Bengals a puncher's chance with big-play potential similar to what the Kingdom regularly witnesses in Kansas City. Cincy ranks fifth league-wide in pass plays of 20+ yards, and Mahomes' offense is sixth. Joe is tied for second place with his 15 passes of 40+ yards, and Patrick is again right there with him at third place with 11. Not everything about their style of play is so similar, however.

Burrow led the league in taking sacks in the regular season. He took 51, while Mahomes was only sacked 28 times. Only Tom Brady and Josh Allen were sacked fewer times while still playing in all 17 regular season games. Chris Jones, Frank Clark and the rest of KC's defense should have a better chance bothering Burrow than the Bengals have of bringing down Mahomes. KC's defense ranks 8th or higher in QB hurries per dropback, pressures per dropback and knockdowns per pass attempt.

The defense doesn't need to completely shut down this recently dominant Bengals offense to give the Chiefs a chance today. After all, giving up 36 points apparently works out just fine as long as they leave about 13 seconds on the clock. If KC can hit pay-dirt with more frequency than Burrow's Bengals today, the Chiefs will once again claim the trophy that bears their maker's name. I'm predicting a thrilling 37-31 victory for Kansas City.

Can KC's Defense Bother Burrow's Bengals?

It's tough to tell what will limit Joe Burrow any given week. He's won and lost against teams with varying pressure rates, yards allowed per game and any other relevant stat I could think to Google. Burrow lost by three to both Aaron Rodger's Green Bay Packers and Mike White's New York Jets. The Cincinnati Bengals' young signal-caller ranks 6th league-wide in passing yards while tying for the league lead in interceptions, which results in a 52.7 QBR that ranks 13th. His upside is tremendous, but Joe's still justifiably unpredictable.

What's more predictable is the continued success of the Kansas City Chiefs defense. Nobody but the Los Angeles Chargers' objectively strong offense has mustered more than two touchdowns in a game against KC since the first day of November. Only four teams in football hold opponents to fewer points per game than the Chiefs. Cincinnati's passing offense will pose a serious threat today. The Bengals rank 8th overall in passing yards per game and seventh in points per game. However, KC overcame a similarly potent opponent very recently when they outscored Justin Herbert's Chargers just two weeks ago. Herbert's offense ranks fourth in passing yards and total yards per game this year, and the Chargers score 0.1 points per game fewer than Burrow's Bengals.

The spotlight once again shines brightly on Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, who once again deserves his roses for the incredible improvement shown by this defense. This improvement, when paired with a quarterback-coach tandem that's destined for the Hall of Fame, will give the Chiefs the advantage today. I predict an exciting 31-27 victory for Kansas City.