I'm not used to waking up on Christmas and watching Kansas City Chiefs football. It still feels weird, doesn't it? Last time around, things didn't turn out so great for the defending champs. KC lost on this day in 2023 to the Raiders, but they went on to never lose a game for the rest of that season and for another nine games into the next season. Here's to hoping the Chiefs can start a similar run without suffering a similar defeat today.
It's weird to experience live Chiefs football on Christmas, but live Chiefs football on a Wednesday is even weirder. This short week has compounded injury problems for both rosters. Jawaan Taylor and Chris Jones are listed as questionable for today's game. Pittsburgh's Ben Skowronek and Joey Porter Jr. are both out today, but emerging young receiver George Pickens will be back in action. A weakened Chiefs pass-rush could keep things closer than KC would like.
Thankfully for Chiefs Kingdom, the Chiefs still have the advantage against Pittsburgh and, to be fair, everyone else in the league when it matters most. Their third-down conversion rate on offense is now at 50.95%, a full 2% better than the rest of the league. Pittsburgh's defense allows the fifth-lowest third-down conversion rate to opponents this season, so each critical third-down moment for the Chiefs offense will be a strength-on-strength matchup. KC's defense, on the other hand, ranks 20th in opponents' third-down conversion rate. That's a subpar facet of the Chiefs defense which is objectively strong in most other statistical categories right now, which has resulted in the league's third-lowest points-per-game allowed. The 2024 Chiefs currently allow just 0.2 more points per game than the league-leading Los Angeles Chargers.
That impressive defense gave the Chiefs time to find their stride on offense while struggling through injuries. Now, it looks like that offense is finding its rhythm at just the right time. We just watched Hollywood Brown return and immediately make an impact in the passing game with five catches and eight targets. Xavier Worthy completed his current career high of seven passes in his second straight game with 11 targets. The Chiefs continue to get this offense fully operational before it's do-or-die against playoff teams with a proven ability to put a bunch of points on the board.
Another reason for confidence in a Chiefs win today is Patrick Mahomes' domination of the Steelers in an admittedly small two-game sample size. In those two games, Mahomes threw for 584 passing yards, nine touchdowns and no picks. His 148.2 Passer Rating in those two games is the best Rating he has against any team in the league. I like this Chiefs offense with Travis Kelce, DeAndre Hopkins, Xavier Worthy and Hollywood all healthy and involved, so I like the Chiefs in this game, 27-20. I truly hope you get a chance to enjoy the game and the holiday with people you love.
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