Will Persistent Penalty Problems Help Philly Fend Off KC?

Many, many things had to go wrong for the Kansas City Chiefs to lose last week's season opener against the Los Angeles Chargers. With true #1 receiver Rashee Rice out due to a suspension, the Chiefs lost their next #1 when Xavier Worthy dislocated his shoulder less than two minutes into the game. Chargers QB Justin Herbert finished his day with a Passer Rating north of 130. Chiefs right tackle Jawaan Taylor committed four penalties in the first 32 minutes of game-time. All these issues still left KC's defense with a chance to give the ball back to Patrick Mahomes late in the fourth - if only they could stop the Chargers from converting on that 3rd and 14 right before the two-minute warning.

The Chiefs incurred 10 total penalties, but eight of them were incurred with more than 13 minutes on the clock in the third quarter. Four of those eight were on Jawaan Taylor, who was tied for first last season in total flags drawn. He also represented 17.27% of the Chiefs' total penalties, which was the highest percentage in the NFL last season. Taylor has constantly drawn too many penalties throughout his career, so there is little surprise that he is the most penalized player in football after Week 1. To be the biggest penalty problem on the team, and to do so by the biggest margin in the NFL, all while representing a bigger cap hit than anyone not named Mahomes, is an objectively significant problem. 

Playing that kind of ugly football against the defending Super Bowl champs will probably result in a loss for KC. Philly's defense may not be as good as last season's after some significant offseason departures, but they seem to have retained their ability to apply pressure to opposing QB's. In Week 1, the Eagles pressured Dak Prescott 13 times, but Dak was able to evade most of the contact and play a relatively clean game. If Mahomes can do the same, the opportunity for big plays down the field should present themselves. KC needs to take advantage of these moments, all while tightening up in their own secondary, if they have any real hope to win this Super Bowl rematch. 

Justin Herbert excelled in the intermediate passing game last week, according to his most recent pass chart. Young Chiefs like Chamarri Conner, Jaden Hicks and Bryan Cook all need to improve coverage over the middle of the field within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage or Kansas City is doomed against opponents with competent quarterbacks. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has a tough job balancing this with trying to stop future Hall of Fame back Saquon Barkley from gutting KC's interior defense all afternoon long. Spags is a master at his craft, though, and I trust him to plug the right holes with creative blitzing packages and coverage schemes today. His ability to do so, plus the Chiefs' ability to limit costly penalties today, will decide who comes away from this big rematch with a win.

Like I said, I have faith in Spags to get the chess pieces where they need to be today. I'm predicting a fun, gritty 24-23 victory for our Kansas City Chiefs. I really, really don't want to be talking about Jawaan Taylor's penalties for another week of analysis. If that happens, we'll see Jaylon Moore getting more significant snaps very soon.

Chiefs Somehow Underrated Entering So-Called Super Bowl Rematch

The so-called rematch to last year's Super Bowl happens this afternoon, and the underdog in that game is the team who hasn't lost since winning it all last year. I guess I can see the odds-makers' perspective after all these Kansas City Chiefs injuries, but I'm still putting my money on the defending champs today. Patrick Mahomes is 11-1-1 against the spread in his career. Andy Reid is 21-4 as a head coach coming off a bye week. KC's injury concerns deserve recognition, but injuries also gave the San Francisco 49ers a unique problem to handle this week.

San Fran is starting their third kicker in three weeks after both Jake Moody and Matthew Wright suffered injuries while attempting tackles during a kick-off. This could be big for a Niners offense ranking 25th league-wide in red zone touchdown-scoring efficiency. They aren't facing many elite defenses, either. Half their opponents so far rank in the bottom eight for yards allowed, and only one ranks higher than 14th. They haven't faced a team with a defense that ranks higher than the Chiefs in both points and yards allowed per game. A quick look at their season so far would indicate that this revered 49ers squad has been inconsistent.

San Francisco has played the Jets, Vikings, Rams, Patriots, Cardinals and Seahawks. They beat the Jets, Pats and Seahawks. I know that seeing Mahomes' Passer Rating at 19th is weird, but San Fran's wins all came against QBs with ratings lower than that. Their best game of the season came against the 3-3 Seahawks, and when they face off with any other playoff-caliber opponent, they lose a close game. To think something else would happen today seems illogical, so I'm predicting a 26-20 victory for Kansas City. An extra week for Andy Reid to work out how this offense operates with the current weapons at its disposal should give the Chiefs the edge today.

KC's Elite D Key to Victory in Super Bowl Rematch

Tonight, the NFL gives us the best game they could possibly offer in the regular season. Hours from now, the 8-1 Philadelphia Eagles take the field at Arrowhead to face off with the reigning Super Bowl champs. This rematch of last year's Big Game offers KC a chance to get more confident and Philly a chance to get a little revenge. Despite these teams putting 73 total points on the board last time they met, today's over/under for total points sits at 46. These two teams are still great, but the Chiefs have achieved that greatness in unexpected ways.

The huge improvement of KC's defense probably counts as the most pleasant surprise for Chiefs Kingdom this year. This Chiefs defense ranks fourth in total yards and passing yards allowed per game and allows the league's second-fewest points per game. They'll be facing a Philly offense that racks up the fourth-most total yards per game and scores the NFL's third-most points per game. The Eagles offense features the best quarterback-receiver duo in the league - yes, better than Tua and Tyreek. Jalen Hurts is second only to Patrick Mahomes in odds to win MVP this season, and A.J. Brown has been about as consistently great as possible this year. Brown has at least six catches in nine of Philly's 10 games this season, and he racked up over 125 receiving yards in six of them. 

Many other potent elements of the Eagles' offense keeps them balanced. Hurts averages 9.8 rushes per game. DeVonta Smith has seven games with at least four catches and punishes teams who devote too much attention to Brown. D'Andre Swift is averaging over 16 carries per game for over 75 yards in his last eight games. It won't be easy to limit Philly's offense, but the Chiefs are well-equipped to do so. L'Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie helped the Chiefs limit Miami - the only team in football to put up more total points and total yards than Philly - to just 14 points.

While the Eagles defense doesn't stand out on paper as much as KC's currently does, both defenses excel in pressuring opposing QB's. The Chiefs' 31 team sacks ties for #8 in the league. The Eagles' multi-faceted attack featuring Josh Sweat, Jalen Carter and Haason Reddick is right behind KC with 30 team sacks. The Chiefs only allow 1.3 sacks per game this season, tying them for the fewest in the NFL. Continuing that level of success on the front lines will be crucial to keeping KC alive in tonight's game.

I don't want a moment this potentially epic to be hampered by penalties, but numbers indicate that it's possible. They also indicate that KC isn't likely to get the upper hand in this regard. The Chiefs have the third-worst net yardage differential from penalties this season, while the Eagles have the fifth-best. Both teams are fresh and relatively healthy after their bye week, with veteran Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert, second-string Philly safety Justin Evans and rarely-utilized Chiefs receiver Richie James being the only names on the final injury report. Whether or not a return to nearly-full strength for KC makes the Chiefs better than Philly remains to be proven.

The Eagles handled the Dolphins 31-17 earlier this season. They're coming off a victory over the Cowboys. Their -2 turnover differential this season isn't great, but it's better than Kansas City's -4. A moment or two when KC's flaws result in them losing a game to a great opponent seem inevitable based on what we've seen from the Chiefs this season. This game is a prime example, so I'm begrudgingly predicting a sad ending to a thrilling game, and a 26-23 Philly victory. It should be close, and it could even come down to overtime. I hope I'm dead wrong, and I hope you get to enjoy it with people who love football and love you. Cheers, Chiefs Kingdom.