Moments of Mahomes Mediocrity Make Chiefs Fans Better Understand His Greatness

The Kansas City Chiefs just lost consecutive games for the first time since September of 2021. Both defeats came at the hands of desperate teams with playoff aspirations and high-ceiling quarterbacks. Today's face-off should not be so dramatic, and if it is, the Chiefs did something very wrong. The New England Patriots have a defense that allows the third-fewest rushing yards per game to opponents and the ninth-fewest total yards. That is the list of positive things to say about the Patriots.

Their average of 13 points a game this season is lower than any other team in football by 1.1 points. Mac Jones has been benched for Bailey Zappe, and even the great Bill Belichick is allegedly on his way out (eventually). All this drama and bad football in Boston should equate to an easy victory for KC today, but nothing feels easy for the Chiefs lately. This version of Kansas City's offense really has changed the vibes in Chiefs Kingdom, and not for the better.

We just witnessed consecutive games from Mahomes compiling a QBR below 52 and a passer rating below 80. That didn't happen for two full calendar years before this. His QBR on the season is still fourth in the league, and I do consider ESPN's QBR stat a more comprehensive and accurate measuring stick for modern quarterback play, but Mahomes has undeniably looked pedestrian through several games this year. He looks like a totally different guy on paper ever since the debacle in Denver.

Only one time since this year's loss to the Broncos has he posted a QBR higher than 54. He hasn't surpassed 300 passing yards since then, either. We can point to a lot of different factors for KC's ineffectiveness, but the highly paid megastar at the heart of the franchise must wear some of the blame. Not even a perfect record for the rest of the regular season could make fans in the Kingdom feel fully confident in the offense again. There's not much more we can learn by facing the Pats, Raiders, the Bengals without Joe Burrow and the Chargers without Justin Herbert.

I'm predicting a 24-13 victory for KC today, but the fans' restlessness will persist. Today's game will still be a good time to count our blessings, though. I'd gladly take a struggling Patrick Mahomes over peak Bailey Zappe or Mac Jones any day. These moments in which Mahomes isn't excellent serve as worthwhile reminders that Mahomes is excellent for an unprecedented percentage of the time he spends on the field.

Patriots Provide KC A Key Test Despite Cam Newton's Absence

Our Kansas City Chiefs overcame their presumed competition for the conference crown last week with relative ease, and tonight they face off against a ghost of their peculiar past. The New England Patriots won't be fully operational today without Cam Newton leading the offense, but could Bill Belichick and a defense that still commands respect stun the football world with an upset over our Chiefs? If so, how?

KC could increase New England's odds and increase the heart-rates of fans like me by stumbling out of the gates, and they've been susceptible to that lately. After finishing in the top ten in 1st quarter scoring during their championship campaign, the Chiefs entered Week 4 ranking second-to-last in the NFL with 2.2 first quarter points per game this season. New England's defense has allowed only 3.3 points to opponents in the 1st quarter this season, and that can only be bested by six defenses in football.

A slow start for KC could save the Pats from an early slaughter, and their defenses excels at disrupting opponents' short-to-intermediate passing game. It's almost like Bill looked at what his own team accomplishes with the same offensive strategy and said, "don't let that happen to my defense." Today will provide us with a strength-on-strength matchup featuring perhaps the two best football minds in the game. The intrigue of such a meeting of the minds makes me even more bummed that we don't get to see how this new Pats squad looks with Cam healthy.

Stats indicate that Patrick Mahomes is averaging shorter, quicker passes this season, which may sound like a let-down to some fans in the Kingdom. However, there's a big, beautiful reason why football savant Andy Reid utilized this change in strategy, and his multi-faceted reasoning further exemplifies his unique savvy.

First, it's important to note that this short-pass strategy gives defenses the old Muhammad Ali "okey-doke" before delivering some key knockouts by landing long-pass haymakers, kinda like how KC just victimized the highly-touted Baltimore Ravens. It also makes the Chiefs' newest weapon more unpredictable, as Clyde Edwards-Hellaire could damage a defense equally via run or reception. Clyde is key to this change because he completes Kansas City's total coverage of the field with their offense. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce already stretch opposing defenses to their limits, but now the new #25 is here to turn "spread the field" into a major understatement. If he proves to be worthy of a first-round pick, it's gonna feel like cheating.

I don't think the Pats can stop the Chiefs when Cam is healthy, and part of me hopes that's some juicy foreshadowing, but that means my prediction for today isn't in doubt. I think our Chiefs win a comfy 34-17 game while I imagine Bill wringing his hands like a comic book villain and calculating his strategy for next time...

Can KC Win Arrowhead's Biggest Game Ever?

Tomorrow's game will be a one-of-a-kind battle against two teams with extremely different histories. The New England Patriots just reached their eighth consecutive AFC Conference Championship game. Our Kansas City Chiefs haven't reached a conference championship game in a quarter-century, and they haven't won one in a half-century. Those were the only other times in team history KC made it this far. New England won their division in each of their last 15 seasons with a healthy Tom Brady. The Chiefs, on the other hand, just won their first divisional round home game in team history. In the 17 seasons when the Pats have The Hoodie and a healthy Brady, they've reached the Super Bowl eight times. That's an almost-LeBron-like level of excellence, and it's completely unmatched in professional football.

However, Chiefs Kingdom has numerous reasons to believe our squad is still Super Bowl-bound. That same Tom Brady of legend looks very human in road games this year. The 11-5 Pats took every L on their schedule on the road, losing to the Pittsburgh Steelers, Miami Dolphins, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans and Detroit Lions. None of those teams reached the playoffs this year, and none of them benefit from the record-breaking, raucous home crowd we provide. The vastly different histories of these franchises won't mean much to members of the Kingdom at Arrowhead this Sunday. All that really matters is the effectiveness of the two teams on the field. Without taking away from the historical importance of this game, let's momentarily suspend all pretense and talk numbers.

Patrick Mahomes completely changes the way I analyze this game. The incredible offense he leads makes me focus less on how the Chiefs can limit the great Tom Brady and more on how the Pats defense can limit Patrick. The only teams that held KC to below 30 points were the Denver Broncos, Arizona Cardinals, Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers have Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa, and the three other defenses have top-11 season sack totals. How do the rushing attacks from KC and New England compare to the rest of the league?

Only Aaron Donald and J.J Watt have more sacks than emerging Chiefs stud Chris Jones this year. Dee Ford's 13 sacks ranks 7th league-wide. 13 sacks is also the season sacks total for the Oakland Raiders. The whole team. New England tied the New York Giants for the second-lowest sacks total in the league with 30.

So, it seemingly takes a strong pass-rushing attack to limit KC's offense, and the Pats don't have that. But, only two of the four teams that beat the Chiefs in the regular season held them under 40 points. The teams that won against KC all had a prolific passer, a prolific coach, or both. The club that unarguably has both is the same one now standing between Chiefs Kingdom and a Super Bowl.

I said last week that Reid/Mahomes > Reich/Luck, but Bill Belichick/Brady > every other coach/quarterback combo ever. The amazing home crowd at Arrowhead, the uncanny talent on the offensive side of the ball and a duo of talented pass-rushers will give the Chiefs a very realistic shot to win tomorrow. Sadly, I cannot predict that such a young QB can overcome the greatest coach/quarterback tandem in history. I predict that the dastardly Pats sneak away with a 34-33 victory. It almost hurts me to imagine the delirious joy I'll feel if Mahomes proves me wrong.

This is the most important moment in Chiefs history in at least 25 years. Are you ready, Kingdom?

Doug LaCerte writes about the Chiefs and the Royals, and he occasionally does stuff on Twitter @DLaC67.

Can KC and Mahomes Make History at Arrowhead?

I already know I'll be a mess of emotions today, whether or not our Kansas City Chiefs can exorcise some demons and win their first divisional round home playoff game in franchise history. The Indianapolis Colts offer Chiefs Kingdom plenty to be afraid of while also leaving fans confident about certain elements of this KC squad. Before I get emotional, I'll take a look at what to fear and what to feel good about today.

A combination of Andrew Luck, a revamped offensive line and a recently stout defense are what got the Colts to this point. These pieces allowed Indy to win nine of their last 10 regular season games and pound the Texans in Houston. Andrew Luck started in all 16 regular season games this year behind a drastically improved O-line and finished with career highs in season Quarterback Rating and QBR. Luck's effectiveness kept Indy in the playoff hunt through the second half of the season. The only time either quarterback threw more interceptions than touchdowns this year is when Patrick Mahomes had two picks and no TD's against Jacksonville.

Luck didn't experience this level of success behind his offensive line from last year, though. The Colts upgraded here big-time in the last draft by picking second team All-Pro Quenton Nelson in the first round and Braden Smith in the third. Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders agree that the Colts have a top-five O-line, while KC's is just middle-of-the-pack.  Indy's pass protection ranks second league-wide, and they allowed the fewest sacks of any team in football.

Despite all the success on Luck's side of the ball, Indy also wouldn't have reached this tournament without impressive contributions from their defense. This squad held four teams below 10 points in the regular season, including a shutout against a hot Dallas Cowboys squad in Week 15. Limiting KC's star tight end is always important for the Chiefs' opponents, and perhaps nobody in the league has more potential to successfully defend Travis Kelce than emerging star Darius Leonard. This studly rookie linebacker is a huge part of why pundits nationwide started saying that Indy has one of the league's best defenses.

However, that trendy take isn't perfect. In their last ten regular season games, the Colts picked up nine wins to barely grab the last spot in the playoffs. Seven of these wins came against the Bills, Raiders, Jags, Titans, Dolphins and Giants. Simply put, those teams do not have good quarterbacks. Your quarterback, the undisputed King of Chiefs Kingdom, just finished his first full regular season as an NFL QB, and he gave us one of the three greatest seasons in NFL QB history.

This same Colts defense that many expert analysts are so high on gave up 27 points to the Giants, 28 to the Raiders, 38 to the New England Patriots, 34 to Cincy and 42 to the mighty New York Jets. The Colts have been good lately, sure, but they've often been good against QB's that are average or worse.

That's far from the only reason to feel good about your Chiefs today. Limiting Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill's effectiveness is as difficult as it is important. Kelce has at least five catches in every game since Week 1. He ranks second this season in total catches, total yards and yards per game. Hill has the fourth-most receiving yards and fifth-highest yards per carry average among anyone in the league and the highest on all remaining playoff squads.

Indy does a great job protecting their QB in passing situations, but both teams excel in this area. KC's front line allowed the fifth-best protection and the fifth-fewest sacks allowed during the regular season. The Chiefs should also have the edge regarding turnovers. Kansas City forced more fumbles than all-but three NFL teams, and only three NFL teams fumbled the ball fewer times. KC's overall give-take differential of +9 is the sixth-best in football, while Indy ranks 13th.

KC led the league in regular season yards per game, despite ranking just 16th in the NFL in rushing yards per game. Indy's running game seemed legit against the Texans last week, but over the year, they average only 107.4 rushing yards per game, which ranks 20th league-wide. Luck's success running this apparently high-flying offense is also deceptive. Luck's regular season performance seemed impressive, but he's usually just "dinkin' and dunkin'".

The Colts completed only 41 plays yielding 20 or more yards this season, which is the fourth-lowest total in football. Kansas City did this 65 times to lead the league. Mahomes' 8.8 yards per passing attempt is second only to Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Luck's 7.2 ranks him 23rd. This year's Chiefs defense struggles mightily against the short-to-intermediate passing attack, but at least the 70-yard heart-breaker pass plays are less likely today.

The coach and the quarterback matter even more than usual in playoff match-ups. Andy Reid is better than Frank Reich. Mahomes, right now, is better than Andrew Luck and perhaps every other player in football. A combination of nasty weather and the NFL's greatest home crowd guarantees that the atmosphere at Arrowhead will be intense. Despite KC's shortcomings, I cannot predict the #6 seed to handle this situation well. I think the Chiefs make history today and beat the Colts 33-31 in a classic.

The "do or die" era of Patrick Mahomes' career begins today, Chiefs Kingdom. For devoted fans, playoff games inflict a certain kind of enjoyable illness. My stomach churns. My heart races like I'm already late for something very important. I did not sleep well last night. I never do before moments like this. This unusual and seemingly unwarranted level of stress is wonderful. It is a unique moment in which something in our heads knows that the stress we're feeling doesn't come from life-threatening responsibility but instead from passion - the passion we have for a team that will soon either etch their names in franchise history with a victory or end their season in defeat. Please remember to enjoy that feeling today, Kingdom, regardless of the outcome.

Doug LaCerte writes about Chiefs stuff, Royals stuff and enjoys anti-Raiders memes on Twitter @DLaC67.

KC Faces Predictably Tough Task in Week 1

All the experts think the Chiefs are gonna lose tonight. You already know that. You've probably already heard that stat about how Tom Brady is 579-1 or whatever when facing AFC opponents in Week 1 home games (50-1 since 2007, actually). You've probably also heard that Andy Reid is nigh-unstoppable when given extra time to plan for his next opponent. KC looks good, but the defending champs look better than they did last season. All this adds up to something fun but predictable - a close game and a victory for New England - unless the Chiefs' defense can force enough turnovers to break the game.

How can the Chiefs blow minds tonight by beating the defending champs in their own backyard? If they can, which they probably can't, it will come down to turnovers. The sad truth for fans in the Kingdom comes when you look at last year's turnover rates; sure, our Chiefs finished tied for first place in turnover differential, but New England finished third. Tom Brady knows he shouldn't throw in Marcus Peters' direction when under duress. He knows Justin Houston is coming for him. It's just illogical to bet against the best quarterback ever, especially when you don't have a fully healthy secondary.

If KC doesn't break the game with an obscene turnover rate, or maybe some special teams chaos, New England should win by 3-13 points. Right now is a horrible time to place your #2 cornerback on the IR. Bob Sutton says it will be a team effort to fill Steven Nelson's shoes tonight, which means there isn't a perfect plan in place, which means Brady will have more ways to pick apart KC's defense. That's, uhh, not good new for the Kingdom.

Despite the reigning champions' clear advantage here, I'm mostly dismissing an overhyped element in this game. I won't put too much into the narrative of the Patriots getting extra gametime mojo tonight just because they're donning their Super Bowl rings in front of apparent archnemesis Roger Goodell. It's a tired story by this point, and whoever's returning from last year's Super Bowl-winning roster had an offseason to reflect and celebrate. If anything, this gives KC a good reason to embrace that eternal sports cliche of having that chip on their shoulders, or collective shoulder, I guess? Whatever. It's an awful cliche. Point is, the Chiefs get to be underdogs, while still being one of the 2-5 best teams in the AFC.

The Star's Sam Mellinger did well to point out that this game is a kind of blessing, in that if KC wins, holy crap, and if KC loses, nobody's devastated or shocked. The Chiefs' playoff hopes remain very strong no matter what happens tonight. If they actually pull off the improbable and beat the champs - the modern era Yankees of the NFL - on their own turf, mere moments after they receive their rings, then this Kansas City Chiefs team will reach a level of confidence never before seen this century.

That sets the stage for the Chiefs and the Kingdom, alike to embrace the "nothing to lose" mindset for tonight's game. I predict a 27-20 loss, but if this thing stays close for more than two quarters, we'll still remember it for a long time. Consider tonight's game fuel for the rest of the season, regardless of the outcome.

Doug will try hard not to neglect his Twitter account @DLaC67, but he'll definitely keep neglecting his Facebook page.

Regular Season Stats Analysis: Points Scored

The 2016 regular season is officially in the rear-view mirror for fans in the Kingdom, and that means it’s time to analyze the ever-livin’ out of those regular season stats. Your Kansas City Chiefs rank 20^th in the NFL in yards per game, but they rank 13^th in total points per game. Five of the 11 other teams with a playoff berth this year averaged fewer points per game than the Chiefs' 24.3. However, four of the NFL’s five highest-scoring offenses belong to Super Bowl contenders.

The Panthers, Cardinals, Pats, Steelers and Seahawks ranked #1-5 in points per game last year, in that order (with Pittsburgh and Seattle tied.) Each of those teams went to the playoffs and won at least their first game. This indicates that a top-shelf offense strongly correlates with playoff success, but it doesn't necessarily correlate with championships. We need only remember that none of the aforementioned offensive juggernauts won it all in 2015. Last year's Super Bowl-winning Denver Broncos ranked 19th with 22.2 points/game in 2015. They defeated the Panthers, the team that led the league with a 31.2 points-per-game average.

Three AFC playoff teams finished this regular season scoring more points per game than KC. Odds say the Steelers, who rank 10th league wide with 24.9 points per game, will face KC at Arrowhead on January 15th. If the Steelers lose, the Raiders, who rank 7th with 26 points, still need third-string QB Connor Cook to win a playoff road game against Houston today to earn another shot at the Chiefs this year. The New England Patriots, a fearsome foe looming in the distance as KC's potential opponent in the AFC Championship game, rank 3rd in the league with 27.6 points per game.

The two teams presumably standing in KC’s way to a Super Bowl appearance – Pittsburgh and the Pats – are the only other clubs in the AFC with better regular season offensive numbers than KC. If Pittsburgh takes care of business today, KC will face the Steelers at Arrowhead on the 15^th. The last time Pittsburgh traveled to KC was the only time the Chiefs lost a game by more than one possession this year. You better believe the Kingdom will be starving for sweet revenge if we get that chance.

Doug LaCerte apparently has a Twitter account @DLaC67, and he still has Facebook.

Even With Flaws, KC's Defense Is Elite

Your Kansas City Chiefs just earned their spot in the driver’s seat to a first-round bye in the playoffs, but which aspect of this team will be remembered for getting them there? After seeing your Chiefs bailed out time after time by a turnover or a crucial 3^rd-down stop, is it really a question? The stats could dissuade you at first glance, but the defense in Chiefs Kingdom is elite.

Don’t let the league’s 27^th-ranked yards allowed per game fool you; only seven teams allow fewer points per game than Kansas City does, and six of those teams are playoff-bound. Despite not forcing any turnovers last Thursday against the Oakland Raiders, KC is still tied for the most takeaways in the NFL this season. KC's efforts against some of the league's best QBs prove that the defense stays stout when it's needed most.

Drew Brees currently commands the highest-ranked offense in football, but the Chiefs held the Saints to 6.5 points less than their current average. KC held Andrew Luck and Indianapolis to 11.2 yards below their current average. The Chiefs also held Matt Ryan and his outstanding Falcons offense to 12 points in the second half to sneak away with an overtime win in Atlanta. KC's defense limited Cam Newton, the reigning offensive MVP, and they humbled the former MVP front-runner Derek Carr by handing him an embarrassing loss at a crucial moment in the season. Twice.

Our Chiefs already played the teams who rank first, second, third and fourth in average points per game. The New England Patriots are #5. How's that for foreshadowing?

We can’t look too far ahead, however, as the Tennessee Titans could threaten our chance for playoff football at Arrowhead Stadium this year. It will continue to be painfully cold in KC tomorrow, and the Chiefs’ inability to stop the run makes Tennessee an opponent that should be taken seriously.

The Titans rank 3^rd league-wide in rushing yards per game, while only five NFL teams allow more rushing yards per game than Kansas City. Only one of the teams worse at stopping the run than KC – the Denver Broncos – has probable odds to reach the playoffs. Tennessee is the best running offense the Chiefs will face this regular season, making Andy Reid and Company’s extra days of game-planning even more beneficial.

The mega-cliché of the “bend-don’t-break” defense will be tested on icy Arrowhead turf tomorrow, but our 2016 Chiefs consistently pass tough tests. It’s gonna be ugly, again, but I believe KC has the big-play potential – even in nasty conditions – to sneak away with another victory. I predict yet another gritty, hard-fought victory for KC. The good guys will win, 20-16, and we’ll all feel a little bit warmer here in Chiefs Kingdom. I hope.

Doug LaCerte occasionally remembers he has a Twitter @DLaC67, and he still has Facebook.