Chiefs Somehow Underrated Entering So-Called Super Bowl Rematch

The so-called rematch to last year's Super Bowl happens this afternoon, and the underdog in that game is the team who hasn't lost since winning it all last year. I guess I can see the odds-makers' perspective after all these Kansas City Chiefs injuries, but I'm still putting my money on the defending champs today. Patrick Mahomes is 11-1-1 against the spread in his career. Andy Reid is 21-4 as a head coach coming off a bye week. KC's injury concerns deserve recognition, but injuries also gave the San Francisco 49ers a unique problem to handle this week.

San Fran is starting their third kicker in three weeks after both Jake Moody and Matthew Wright suffered injuries while attempting tackles during a kick-off. This could be big for a Niners offense ranking 25th league-wide in red zone touchdown-scoring efficiency. They aren't facing many elite defenses, either. Half their opponents so far rank in the bottom eight for yards allowed, and only one ranks higher than 14th. They haven't faced a team with a defense that ranks higher than the Chiefs in both points and yards allowed per game. A quick look at their season so far would indicate that this revered 49ers squad has been inconsistent.

San Francisco has played the Jets, Vikings, Rams, Patriots, Cardinals and Seahawks. They beat the Jets, Pats and Seahawks. I know that seeing Mahomes' Passer Rating at 19th is weird, but San Fran's wins all came against QBs with ratings lower than that. Their best game of the season came against the 3-3 Seahawks, and when they face off with any other playoff-caliber opponent, they lose a close game. To think something else would happen today seems illogical, so I'm predicting a 26-20 victory for Kansas City. An extra week for Andy Reid to work out how this offense operates with the current weapons at its disposal should give the Chiefs the edge today.

Mahomes Magic in Major Moments Eagerly Expected

Chiefs Kingdom, today we once again reach the zenith of the football fan experience. Our Chiefs face the San Francisco 49ers just hours from now to decide this year's Super Bowl champion. The stakes are at their absolute highest, and two quarterbacks who took dramatically different paths to get here are both desperate to end this part of their story in ultimate victory. We're talking about the $450-million man and the guy making $985K this season. We're talking about the guy with the best start to a career in this sport's history facing off against Mr. Irrelevant. It's one hell of a story already.

For Patrick Mahomes, more greatness is expected, because much greatness has already been produced. His career postseason Passer Rating now stands at 106.3. Since losing to Tampa in the Super Bowl, Patrick's worst performance was a 91.3 Passer Rating, which came from that loss to the Bengals that ended the 2021 Chiefs' season. In that nine-game playoff stretch, Mahomes has recorded a Passer Rating above 130 three times and completed over 73% of his passes six times. After six seasons as a starter, his trophy shelf is already full of more accomplishments than anybody not named Brady or Montana. The Chiefs have never failed to reach the Conference Championship with Mahomes as their starter, and they reach the Super Bowl 2/3rds of the time. 

Nobody in football history has a resume like that. That's not bad for a guy the NFL supposedly figured out last season by masterfully reconfiguring their defense into this mysterious, complex, brand-new concept known as "Cover 2". That's not bad for a guy whose offense was deemed broken and unfixable as recently as Christmas. It feels like it's been about a year-and-a-half, but about seven weeks ago, the Chiefs lost to the Raiders on Christmas Monday. That was the last time the Chiefs lost and the last time Mahomes threw a pick. That's a worthy reminder of just how low we felt (or I felt, I should say) about this team at times through the regular season. 

This Chiefs offense wasn't supposed to be good enough to get them here. Some pundits thought they'd underperform in the frigid KC weather in the Wild Card Round against Miami. More thought Buffalo would finally get their pound of flesh from KC when they met in Orchard Park in the Divisional Round. Most recently, a vocal majority proclaimed with justified reasoning that Baltimore would be the team to stop KC from reaching another Big Game. Baltimore, with Roquan Smith, Kyle Hamilton and Patrick Queen, should've been the team to stop the Chiefs offense, and especially to stop them from attacking multiple levels of the field to leave Travis Kelce open. Mahomes targeted Kelce 11 times, and Kelce had 11 catches for 116 receiving yards and a touchdown.

Despite Brock Purdy's remarkable accomplishments throughout the last couple seasons, we can safely say KC has the better quarterback in today's game. I can actually see similarities in how we're viewing the quarterbacks, head coaches and defenses in this Super Bowl face-off. All three facets of both teams could be considered elite, yet the Chiefs are better in all three. San Fran's defense has been great at times this season, but they've struggled mightily in these playoffs against quarterbacks not named Mahomes and tight ends not named Kelce. San Fran's defense left them with a deficit in the fourth quarter against Jordan Love's Packers, and the Niners only regained the lead in that game with 1:07 left on the clock. They most recently allowed 31 points to Jared Goff's Lions. 

While San Francisco's defense has struggled in the playoffs against teams with offenses less frightening and experienced than the Chiefs, Kansas City's defense has been excellent against teams with other elite offenses. Miami's offense dominated all season long and scored seven points on KC when playoff-time arrived. The great-but-often-overrated Josh Allen played well against KC but failed to score enough to win when he finally got the Chiefs on his home turf in the playoffs. Then, the prolific offense helmed by league MVP Lamar Jackson was limited to a touchdown and a field goal in their unceremonious playoff exit two weeks ago. Teams that dedicated years of focus and funding on beating the Chiefs, teams that built themselves from the ground up to beat the Chiefs, all failed to stop KC from reaching yet another Super Bowl.

San Francisco's offense is elite by every measure. They were top-five in regular season total yards, passing yards, rushing yards and points per game. Only five teams in the league finished the regular season with fewer giveaways. Purdy had too many tight-window throws and come-from-behind drives to deserve the "game manager" tag, especially when his tendency to be aggressive betrays that more than anything else. The fact that he's a legit franchise QB should no longer be questioned, as long as his price tag remains so remarkably low. He deserves his flowers, but he also is the reason I'm predicting San Fran to lose this game.

The Niners' kicker is susceptible to mistakes, while Harrison Butker has been rock solid all year long, and San Fran racked up the second-most penalty yards in football, but I still don't think these will be the deciding factors in this game. Purdy's inability to be as magic as Mahomes will be why me and many others predict a victory for KC today. I know that's like judging a really good basketball player for not being LeBron or a really good rapper for not being Kendrick, but it's the truth. We have a reasonable expectation of Patrick Mahomes to do ridiculous stuff that keeps drives alive when they should die, because that is what he always does. Brock can have a great game and still come up short today.

Plenty of NBA teams in the '90's went up against Jordan's Bulls and suffered heart-breaking defeat. I assume they felt the way Purdy's Niners are about to feel. Sometimes you just go up against an unstoppable force and lose. That's what happened to a lot of teams in the Jordan Era of pro basketball. Now, in the heart of the NFL's Mahomes Era, it's time for Brock and his team to feel that pain. As always, I hope you enjoy this moment with people who love football and love you.

27-20, Chiefs.

San Fran's Elite D Could Concern KC

Our Kansas City Chiefs lost a bummer of a home game last Sunday to a tough playoff contender with a great defense. This week, they're heading west to face a tough playoff contender with a great defense. The biggest difference between the Buffalo Bills and San Francisco 49ers should be the difference between defeat for KC last week and victory today.

Last Sunday's 24-20 Bills win featured the two best quarterbacks in football. This week's game will feature one of those two and also Jimmy Garoppolo. That Niners defense is Super Bowl-worthy, but that offense has been outscored by Chicago, Denver and Atlanta. Christian McCaffrey could greatly improve things in time, but a guy who joined the team this Thursday can only be expected to do so much. Unfortunately for Chiefs Kingdom, San Fran's elite defense gives them a chance to win despite limited success from the offense.

This Niners defense allows the NFL's second-fewest points and fewest yards per game. Only the Dallas Cowboys sack the opposing QB at a higher rate. San Francisco also allows the ninth-lowest 3rd down conversion rate in the NFL. The one thing Buffalo does way better than San Fran on defense, however, is forcing turnovers; the Bills are second league-wide in total takeaways while only 10 teams have fewer takeaways than San Francisco.

I don't expect the Chiefs defense to look elite yet, but they held the second-highest scoring team in football (KC is still first) to 24 last week, which is 5.3 points lower than Buffalo's season average. The Chiefs accomplished this without Trent McDuffie or Willie Gay, and Gay returns to action this afternoon. Allen's 117.6 Passer Rating against KC last week is concerning, but practically nobody thinks Jimmy G is on Allen's level. Garoppolo's completion percentage ranks 17th among QBs with at least three starts this season. His Passer Rating is a respectable 8th-best, but his QBR is the league's 10th-worst.

San Fran leans heavily on their successful, multi-faceted rushing attack - only seven teams in the NFL have a lower passing percentage - but Chiefs Kingdom knows better than any fanbase just how valuable an elite QB can be when the game is on the line. Let's call last week the exception to the rule. Patrick threw some picks, and I wrote an article about how the Chiefs were about to score a bunch against the Bills - we all had a bad week. Now is the time for KC to get back on track and get a tough win over tough competition. I'll predict a gritty 27-17 victory for Kansas City.

Mahomes Makes Chiefs Championship Favorites

Are you ready for the most important football game of your life, Chiefs Kingdom? I thought the extra week between games would be unbearable, but it turned out to be euphoric. Part of me wants it to never end. I really will miss having the world's eyes on this team we all hold so close to our hearts. I may not be emotionally ready for all this, but Patrick Mahomes is, and he'll be the difference maker today. The San Francisco 49ers are a more complete team with a stout defense and a frighteningly effecting running game. The most important player in Chiefs franchise history faces another seriously daunting test, but can his talent, wit and will bring our Chiefs a championship?

You've probably heard about the five first-round picks that make up the the Niners' defensive line. You probably know Richard Sherman, future Hall of Famer defensive back and perennial dream-killer for young NFL quarterbacks. You probably remember a certain edge rusher named Dee Ford, too. The effectiveness of San Fran's defense as a whole should not be understated, but their job today is to stop a guy who was seemingly built in a video game to poke holes in great defenses. Having the best deep threat and the best receiving tight end in the universe doesn't hurt.

If San Fran double-teams Tyreek, then Travis Kelce will gouge the admittedly solid second layer of that defense. Double-team Travis, and the Chiefs will have an excellent route-runner in Tyreek Hill ready to find small spaces in San Francisco's zone-heavy defense. Double-team both of these superstar passing targets and watch Mahomes scramble for big gains while distributing to Sammy Watkins and Mecole Hardman. The pick-your-poison line about multifaceted offenses is cliche, but it fits this team to a T.

The tenacity and poise of San Fran's defense limits the amount of big plays made by every team they face. Patrick is just too good, however, at making something magical happen when a play breaks down or must be extended. These kind of matchups are how truly epic sports moments are born. Mahomes needs to be great to give the Chiefs a chance at a championship, but Chiefs Kingdom knows that nobody in this world is more capable of such greatness.

Kansas City already overcame that 24-point playoff deficit against the Texans. They already overcame the prototypical underdog and ended the Cinderella story for a Titans team which also had the consummate Boogeyman at running back. This 49ers team should concern us as Chiefs fans, but now the Kingdom and the team itself is above fearing any team in football. San Francisco could make our hearts pound out of our chests today by looking really good, but the Kingdom knows that Patrick Mahomes is ready to be great. This is his league now. This is his time.

Enjoy every moment of this, Chiefs Kingdom. Remember how much it means to Andy Reid and Andy Reid's entire family and every person who ever played for Andy or went to the same school as Andy or sold Andy a cheeseburger. Remember how great sports can feel when we're all in this together. Hug the people who love football and love you. This is our time, too. Make the most of it.


Doug LaCerte still neglects his Twitter and Facebook, but he appreciates every member of The Kingdom experiencing this moment with him.

Meet the Gang, Part 5- New Hope and New Help for QB

What separates the Chiefs from the two teams fighting to call themselves champions today? Lots of stuff. It may actually be simpler to count the things we have in common, but what is perhaps the biggest difference? The defense in KC isn't elite yet, but it certainly showed signs of improvement and clutch holding power. This is a good enough defense right now to be competitive if matched with even an average offense. So the offense is the problem- but, not all of it. KC ranked 5^th league-wide in total rushing yards this year, with Jamaal listed in the top five for season rushing yards, average yards per carry, average yards per game and total yards from scrimmage. Clearly, Jamaal has what it takes to be a winner and push the Chiefs toward the playoffs. #25 can only let this team down by getting injured.

So, the defense has hope and the running game is great- obviously not KC's biggest flaws. That narrows it down to the passing game. Neither team in this year's Super Bowl had incredible passing stats in the regular season; Baltimore and San Fran ranked 15^th and 23^rd in total passing yards, respectively. The Chiefs rank dead last, though. Anyone who watched the games each Sunday can clearly see that Kansas City needs to evolve on the offensive side of the ball. Compared to watching a game with at least one competent passing attack, the Chiefs' Sunday viewing experience felt downright juvenile. The rest of the league enlisted field commanders with rifle arms to bomb the opposition. Meanwhile, the Chiefs were playing around with Nerf guns and Super Soakers. While everyone rode around the neighborhood on their shiny, new ten-speeds, KC was pedaling away on one of those plastic, tricolor Playskool bikes.

Let me get to the point before my metaphors get any weirder. The QB crippled the Chiefs' chances to succeed last year. The last team to rank last in passing yards and still make the playoffs was the Ravens in '03. That Baltimore squad still ranked 8^th in overall offense, and its legendary defense featured several future-Hall of Famers like Ed Reed and the man of the hour, Ray Lewis. In the nine seasons that followed, teams that ranked last in passing yards averaged 4.4 wins per year and never recorded a winning season. Recent changes for the Chiefs will help them to avoid this fate.

Kansas City started the season by limiting their offense in order to cater to a limited QB. Whoever starts at quarterback next year will be an upgrade, but he'll need to deal with the struggles of learning a brand new offense. Because of this, and also because of the QB position's cerebral nature, this year's choice of a quarterbacks coach is crucial to future success. Andy Reid has yet again gone with a former assistant from Philly to bolster the coaching staff- shocking, I know. Before we lose ourselves to the bright lights and high drama of the day, let's quickly get to know the new Chiefs quarterbacks coach- Matt Nagy.

Nagy's resume is a quick read, but he brings hands-on QB experience and strong work ethic to his first quarterbacks coach position. After playing six seasons at QB in the AFL, Matt quickly started his coaching career by climbing the ranks in Philly under Andy Reid. After two years as a coaching intern, Nagy claimed a position as offensive assistant to begin the 2010 season. The next year, Andy upgraded his position to offensive quality control coach. I won't pretend to know much more about this guy. I have no idea what he brings to the table from an X's and O's standpoint. All that aside, I still really like this hire. Nagy offers, at the very least, a list of accomplishments based solely on his hard work and determination. Whoever the next Chiefs quarterback is, hard work and determination will be exactly what he needs to succeed. Other factors will influence this QB's chances considerably, but no other person will have more effect on KC's new big hope than Matt Nagy.