Can KC Claim Conference Crown by Beating Burrow's Boasting Bengals?

Arrowhead Stadium will soon serve as host for a major moment in NFL history, so I believe now's a proper time to remember how the Chiefs arrived at this exciting moment. The best moments of history are often made possible by its worst moments, and the history of Kansas City Chiefs football is no different. KC made the best drafting decision in franchise history when they picked Patrick Mahomes in the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft, but this was a reversal of the last three and a half decades of Chiefs strategy.

The choice to bring in Mahomes came after Kansas City declined the opportunity to draft a quarterback in the first round for 34 consecutive seasons since they went with a guy named Todd Blackledge. This QB that the Chiefs acquired during the Reagan Era never led his own team in passing yards over a single season and ended his career with a completion percentage below 50%. Blackledge would never earn a long-term starting role for any franchise, and the Chiefs would go on to finish in last place in their division in four of the six seasons following their choice to choose a QB in the draft's first round. The Chiefs failed to survive the divisional round of the playoffs in the 23 seasons since winning Super Bowl IV, until a San Francisco 49ers cast-off named Joe Montana led KC to a losing effort in the AFC Championship in 1992.

The trend of sticking with quarterbacks who got their start with other franchises continued in KC for another two and a half decades, with the likes of Steve Bono, Elvis Grbac, Trent Green, Matt Cassel and all the way up to key Mahomes mentor Alex Smith. Since Smith passed the torch to Mahomes, Kansas City has been in the hunt for a Super Bowl victory every season. It only took the franchise nearly half a century to reverse its quarterback-drafting strategy and become the incumbent dynasty of pro football. It just so happens that the QB standing in the way of more glory for KC and Mahomes is practically the only man who has successfully stopped KC every chance he's had.

Despite having serious injury issues to their offensive line last week, Joe Burrow overcame a Bills defense that many NFL experts trusted as being Super Bowl-worthy. Unfortunately for fans in KC, Joe plays the Chiefs better than he plays any other team in football. Burrow has only played one regular season game against the Atlanta Falcons, and in it he threw for 481 yards, three touchdowns and never turned the ball over while completing over 80% of his passes. Burrow has played two regular season games agains the Chiefs and somehow compiled a higher Passer Rating in those two games combined than he did in his dominating performance against the Falcons.

In the playoffs, Burrow seems less dominant against KC, with only 240 passing yards, two touchdowns and a pick in last year's AFC Championship. It wasn't Ja'Marr Chase killing KC in last year's playoff meeting, either; he only caught six out of nine passes sent his way for 54 receiving yards. It was Tee Higgins who claimed the lion's share of receiving yards that day, with 103. It was Joe's patience and ability to convert on third downs that truly killed Kansas City. 

While Joe Burrow chases Patrick Mahomes for the claim to be the league's greatest QB, Mahomes chases the all-time greats already in the history books. Otto Graham, who played in six total seasons for the Cleveland Browns from 1950-1955, is the only player in AFL-NFL history to record a higher QB winning percentage than Mahomes through at least 17 games. While Mahomes will soon claim his second league MVP award, he may also be weeks away from winning his second Super Bowl. You may already know, but it's worth repeating: the Chiefs are hosting their fifth straight AFC Championship, which is a league record. Mahomes has helped Travis Kelce become inarguably the best to ever play his position, and Mahomes has cemented Andy Reid's position as one of the five or ten greatest pro football coaches of all time. Winning this game keeps Mahomes on pace to legitimately stake his claim one day as the greatest football player ever.

All this conversation about superlatives and history books means nothing when it comes to the little things that actually decide who will achieve victory this Sunday. As much as I like waxing poetic about #15's greatness, other factors beyond his control will drastically impact who goes to the Super Bowl and who starts planning their vacation a few weeks earlier than they had hoped. A key factor to keep in mind this Sunday is Cincy's vulnerability on the offensive line due to the absences of Bengals left tackle Jonah Williams and right guard Alex Cappa.

Perhaps Buffalo failed to expose Cincy's injured offensive line, and perhaps KC learned from that mistake after seeing last week's Bills-Bengals game. KC's defense ranks 7th league-wide in opponent quarterbacks' percentage of plays hurried, 9th in quarterback knockdown percentage and 5th in pressure percentage. The Packers and Jaguars are the only other teams in football that can claim to be 9th-best or better in all those categories. Buffalo ranges between 13th and 15th in all those categories, for the record, so maybe KC's reliance on guys like Chris Jones and Frank Clark could be beneficial to Chiefs Kingdom this Sunday.  

Last year's AFC Championship game truly came down to the Chiefs' inability to score to start the second half. With a 21-10 advantage, Kansas City punted in four out of five of their next drives to start the third quarter. The other drive in there was an interception by Mahomes. Before the end of the of the third quarter, Cincy had 24 points on the board. 

One field goal in the second half simply is not enough scoring to beat a legit team like the Bengals. Only once since then has KC failed to score seven or more in any half of football, and that came in their embarrassing Week 3 loss to the Colts. If KC can simply avoid going ice-cold on offense, which is something they almost never do, they should have the advantage this time.

Despite the rivalry's recent history and concern about Mahomes' ankle, I have to predict a win for the Chiefs. I have no clue how to calculate the odds to beat a team as uniquely great as the Chiefs four times straight, but let's just say it's a uniquely difficult task to achieve. Burrow is due to flinch and make a mistake that gives the Chiefs an advantage, and Mahomes is ready to go get revenge. I'm predicting a 27-24 KC victory and another chance at Super Bowl glory for Chiefs Kingdom.

History Is Made Today at Arrowhead

It's playoff time at Arrowhead Stadium, which means it's time to make history. This playoff run is a defining moment in the careers of many men, not to mention a critical point in the overall story of this football franchise. The Chiefs' backstory in home playoff games is the stuff of legend, but it's a very sad legend. Kansas City was the first franchise in NFL history to lose seven consecutive playoff games. A win today would be just the third home playoff victory in franchise history. Will KC continue to struggle at home when it matters most, or can the Chiefs take care of business against an injured, inferior Titans team? I'll sort it out through my three quick predictions:

1. Don't let OddsShark.com's spread consensus of 8.5 fool you into thinking this will be easy for KC. The Titans are the second-most effective play-action offense in football. No team in the league runs the ball behind their left tackle with more success than Tennessee. Their defense is notably stout against the run and includes multiple playmakers in the NFL Top 100. Their defense holds opponents to the league's 8th-lowest 3rd down conversion percentage, while KC ranks 23rd in this category.

Tennessee also runs a methodical offense that limits penalties and runs the ball consistently. That means we'll see the clock running a lot, especially if the Chiefs commit to running the ball with Kareem Hunt against the NFL's 4th-best rush defense. I predict that KC will not cover the spread, and the total points won't reach OddsShark's consensus over/under of 44.5. That being said, our Chiefs have a clear advantage today, and the undeniable reasons why are the focus of my other predictions.

2. Only five teams threw more interceptions than the Titans this year. Only four players in the NFL have more interceptions than Marcus Peters, and the Chiefs defense ranks 9th overall in interceptions. That being said, one of those players with more picks than Peters is Tennessee's Kevin Byard, so Alex Smith will battle Byard mentally all day long. Chiefs reporter B.J Kissel pointed out that Marcus Mariota is tied with DeShone Kizer for the most interceptions thrown in road games this year, with 11 in total. He also pointed out that the Chiefs won all nine games in which they won the turnover battle.

I'm just keeping it simple here, because the simple factor of turnovers means everything in the NFL. I predict that the Chiefs will continue this trend today by winning the turnover battle and the game, thanks in large part to at least one caused by Marcus Peters. Whether it's a strip or a pick is all up to football destiny.

3. Fan perception of Alex Smith's time as a Chiefs will be greatly shaped by his performance today. Going deep into the playoffs solidifies Smith's tenure here as something overwhelmingly positive. A defeat to an objectively inferior Titans team would leave many fans wondering how this generation of talent in KC would've fared under the command of a different QB. To have such a balanced attack with playmakers at all three levels of the offense is a luxury few NFL teams can afford. If Smith doesn't push this talented team deep into the playoffs, or at least past a Tennessee team that allowed 22 more points than it scored through the regular season, many in Chiefs Kingdom will think of Smith as the game manager that limited KC's potential for greatness. That is not fair, but that is the reality of a starting QB in the NFL, especially in a city so starved for that greatness.

Another man clearly performing at the top of his field and still being constantly questioned is the man running the show on the sidelines. This playoff run is the culmination of Andy Reid's 19th-straight season as a head coach in this league. Praise for Reid around the league is nearly unanimous, but he is the same guy who gave up play-calling duties in an admittedly successful attempt to bounce back from a then-horrifying midseason slump. That slump ended less than four weeks ago, and it is nearly the exact roster facing the Wild Card Titans today at Arrowhead.

This is not a playoff tune-up game. This is not a chip-in or a lay-up or any other stupid saying for an automatic win. The Titans want to bash Kansas City's proverbial teeth in and continue the decades-long streak of sadness that seems to curse the Kingdom during the playoffs. I thankfully believe that Andy and Alex will come through in the clutch for us today.

Smith should be well-prepared for this huge moment in his career, and it will show against a Titans defense that ranks 25th in passing yards allowed this year. Alex has thrown for 324 yards against Houston, who ranks 24th in that category. He also averaged 305 passing yards through his two meetings with the Raiders, who are #26.

Andy is going to have this squad ready to win today, and that will result in success during crucial moments for KC's offense. I predict at least 305 yards through the air for Alex Smith, as KC clears a path to the divisional round by taking care of the Titans in a tight one, 23-17.

Doug LaCerte has a Facebook page and occasionally does stuff on Twitter @DLaC67.

Kansas City Chiefs Something Something Bad Christmas Pun!

Our Kansas City Chiefs are one victory away from making their place in the playoffs official. The visiting Miami Dolphins are kinda-sorta-not-really in the hunt if about 12 things go right and they win out, but on paper, they're an objectively sub-par opponent. The Dolphins rank in the bottom three in the league in yards per game, points per game, giveaways and turnover differential. They hold opponents to 24.4 points per game, which is the league's sixth-highest average. The Dolphins allow the 9th-highest average yardage per play this season, but hey, our Chiefs are #8. If you're looking for something to fear today, KC's defense allowing big plays would be #1. Speaking of numbering things, here are my three quick predictions for what I hope to be our final real regular season game for our Chiefs this season:

1. Those giveaway stats for Miami are just damning. KC has 14 picks this year, and the Dolphins have already given the ball away 26 times. A determined, focused Marcus Peters could feast today. I predict that KC will win the turnover battle by at least two, which will making winning at Arrowhead really tough for the 'Phins.

2. The aforementioned inability to stop teams from scoring is another key to what makes Miami an objectively bad team this season. The obvious choice to pass to Tyreek Hill whenever a cornerback plays press coverage without safety help will bring us more holiday cheer today, even if it's not Hill who gives us that gift himself. He could pull safeties down to double him, which will leave other parts of the field open for KC's other playmakers. I predict a Chiefs passing gain of over 50 yards today from either Hill, Kareem Hunt on a wheel or screen route, or Travis Kelce deep over the middle.

3. The Alex Smith-Matt Nagy duo definitely got this KC offense back on track after Andy Reid seemingly derailed it throughout that pitiful mid-season skid. KCChiefs.com's BJ Kissel pointed out that this new play-calling hierarchy averages 439 yards and 29 points per game, which is third-best and fifth-best in the league over that stretch. KC will be determined to keep their mojo offensively, but justified conservatism may limit their numbers today. This is a terrible time to get any more Chiefs injured, so if KC jumps out to an early lead, we could see some serious clock-milking. This is the correct decision at this time of the season, fantasy leagues be damned. So, I'll predict a 24-16 victory for our Chiefs, with somewhere between 360-440 total yards of offense. Enjoy your holidays, Chiefs Kingdom. We should soon be celebrating Christmas as champions of the AFC West.

Doug LaCerte has a Facebook page and occasionally tweets @DLaC67.

Can KC Bounce Back By Beating Buffalo?

Wow. That disaster of a game last week may have been the most disappointing moment in the Andy Reid Era of Chiefs football. The then-1-8 Giants team that beat KC didn't even play a particularly good game. New York gained 46 less yards than the Chiefs and possessed the ball for about six and a half fewer minutes. Orleans Darkwa led all Giants rushers with 74 yards over 20 carries. The Chiefs will face a better back and a much better team just moments from now at Arrowhead.

When the L.A Chargers beat Cleveland today, they'll have a .500 record. A Chiefs loss would put Rivers' squad just a game behind KC in the standings. It's not a "must-win" for the Chiefs today, but the outcome will significantly change the Kingdom's outlook on the playoffs this year. If my predictions prove to be accurate today, it should be a close one.

1. Andy Reid and Alex Smith drove this offense into a downward spiral of ill-conceived conservatism that culminated in last week's embarrassing defeat. Alex must get back to extending plays with his feet instead of ruining plays by prematurely scrambling out of the pocket. I'd rather see him take a few hard licks today than throw any more 2-yard passes on 3rd and long. I think he knows this, too.

Reid must allow this to happen with properly balanced play-calling that evenly incorporates his three big offensive weapons attacking all levels of the field. The offense's recent refusal to stretch the defense by consistently threatening them with deep passing is as well-documented as it is infuriating. I think Andy knows this, as well. I predict that the Chiefs will complete four or more passes for 20+ yards while Kareem Hunt returns to gaining triple-digit yardage.

2. I know I just really dogged KC for their conservatism, but that philosophy leads to a great turnover differential, and that always leads to success. The six teams who have thrown five or fewer picks all lead their divisions. To Taylor's credit, he's thrown only three picks over 279 pass attempts this year. He and Alex both have their reasons to avoid turning the ball over at all costs today. I predict a relatively clean game with two or less total turnovers.

3. The Chiefs haven't faced a running back as legit as LeSean McCoy since this whole decline started with a disgusting Week 6 loss to Pittsburgh. KC fans saw Le'Veon Bell dip and slide through the Chiefs defense for 179 yards on the ground. A performance like that from Shady today would spell doom for the Kingdom, so Chiefs DC Bob Sutton must win the chess match to win this game. He needs to dial up the right combination of solid run-stuffing defense and enough blitzing to force pressure on Tyrod Taylor, while still keeping enough defenders on the edges of the field to limit the damage Taylor can do with his legs. You'll never catch me saying that being a defensive coordinator in the NFL looks easy.

Nonetheless, I still have faith - though it may be muted lately - in the "bend, don't break" potential of this defense. I predict an uplifting bounce-back performance for Sutton and his defense that limits the Bills to 4.8 fewer points than their season average and leads KC to a hard-fought 23-16 victory.

Doug LaCerte usually procrastinates too much to do much with his Facebook page or tweet very many tweets @DLaC67.

Raiders Week Becomes Bounce-Back Week for KC

Sunday stunk, so much so that my heart still stings as I try not to envision that ball bouncing off Phillip Gaines' face mask. Thankfully, there is no greater way to forget about gut-wrenching defeat than remembering that it's Raiders Week. It's a short week this time, sure, but the hate is still strong, and the stakes are high for both teams in this delicious rivalry. Here are this week's three quick predictions:

1. Trust Andy Reid, you guys. He's earned it. I know Sunday's game was brutal, but all that success doesn't just go poof and disappear after one ugly defeat. Andy and his shovel-passin', screen-happy offensive style developed a deep-pass threat this season that made KC's offense look impressive in all-but-one game so far this year. Last week was not a return to form. It was a momentary stumble. I think. I hope. I predict that the Chiefs will rip off a gain of at least 55 yards that helps the Kingdom remember just how lucky we are this year.

2. Let's also not forget that Alex Smith is enjoying the best year of his career to this point. This is largely because his rediscovered running skills force defenders to decide between crashing on the QB or staying on their man. He's not just extending plays - he's making big plays happen by threatening defenses with his legs. For whatever reason, that was extremely limited in the game-plan last season, but fans in KC should be ecstatic to see this happening consistently this time around. Alex ran for just 134 yards last season, and he's already racked up 121 through six games this year. I predict that Smith will surpass his rushing yards total from last year tonight.

3. The Raiders' season to this point has been...inconsistent. Oakland put up 45 in a win against the New York Jets in Week 2, then turned around the next week and scored just 10 against Washington. The Baltimore Ravens' average points/game of 19 is 24th in football, yet they scored 30 against Oakland in Week 5. A healthy Derek Carr has fans in Oakland hyped for this one, but the Chiefs' dominance over Carr throughout the Andy Reid era is well-documented. It could develop into an ugly, chippy game tonight, but the Chiefs will win and cover their 3-point spread. KC wins 26-20, and peace returns to Chiefs Kingdom.

Doug LaCerte didn't get much better about neglecting his Facebook page or Twitter @DLaC67. He'll do better eventually, maybe.

Can Desperate Steelers Squad Keep it Close in KC?

I expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to make this afternoon's game at Arrowhead interesting. I can only imagine that this week of practice in Pittsburgh was intense, and Chiefs-Steelers is flourishing into a serious rivalry. Big Ben Roethlisberger, not to mention many of his key targets, are looking for a bounce-back after an ugly loss in Pittsburgh last week. The Steelers will be desperate to right the ship and stay above .500, and desperate teams are dangerous. Mike Tomlin will undoubtedly have his guys jacked up for this. That's why I'm predicting KC to win a somewhat-close game instead of completely blowing the Steelers out.

Pittsburgh comes into Arrowhead with enough emotional fuel to keep things entertaining, but comparing their flaws to KC's strengths provides plenty of evidence of the Chiefs' superiority.

The Steelers' two ugly losses share a key element; when Pittsburgh's opponent kept the score close early on, thereby avoiding pass-heavy play-calling, those teams' ability to run the ball killed the Steelers. Pittsburgh was just crushed at Heinz Field at the hands of Blake Bortles and the Jags last week. Big Ben's five interceptions really turned that game sideways, but Jacksonville's consistent success running the ball is what ultimately earned them the W. Leonard Fournette gashed Pittsburgh for 181 yards last week, and he's not the only back to help his squad beat the Steelers this season.

In Week 3, the Chicago Bears' duo of Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen combined for 35 carries and 218 yards as Chicago handed Pittsburgh a disappointing 23-17 defeat. In games when Pittsburgh gained an early lead, opposing QB's were forced to throw into a still-solid Steelers secondary. When that happens, Pittsburgh still looks legit, but when opposing teams get a chance to run the ball, Pittsburgh looks average-at-best.

This makes the game-plan for the Chiefs seem oddly simple. Of course, play-calling in an NFL game is never simple. The Steelers expect a heavy dose of Kareem Hunt, and since they've yet to prove they can stop someone like him, that's what they'll get. Thing is, Pittsburgh spent all week focusing on how to stop the run, as this is clearly their biggest concern for all the aforementioned reasons. Fortunately for fans in Chiefs Kingdom, Andy Reid will be ready with some tricky short passes when the Steelers defense is focused on Hunt, which should lead to a solid, balanced game for KC's offense. That impressive offense plays a big part in my predictions this week:

1. Pittsburgh holds opponents to 139.6 passing yards per game this season, which is the league's lowest average by a full 20 yards. Current MVP front-runner Alex Smith is deftly commanding the league's 8th-best pass-attack and 2nd-best overall offense, so despite my expectations for a big day for Kareem Hunt, I also predict that Smith will gain at least 175 yards through the air.

2. Let's just make my expectations for Hunt to dominate into an official prediction: Kareem will have his fifth game with at least 100 rushing yards this season, and he'll break off a long run for at least 35 yards. This should lead KC to a 30-20 victory.

3. Marcus Peters isn't all that bad, right? I predict that he'll bounce back with a strong performance at and least one pick today, which will help us all get over this "attitude problem" stuff quickly. Don't forget that this guy who people seem to despise right now is the same guy that everyone wanted to hug when he ripped the football out of Kelvin Benjamin's monstrous hands and stole a game for us in Carolina last season. Peters didn't break any laws or hurt anyone as far as I know, so as far as I care, I just want to see him shut down half the field and ball-hawk his way to more pick-sixes. Don't let his apparent attitude problems stop you from enjoying his awesomeness to the fullest, this week and every week.

Doug LaCerte still has a Facebook page for some reason, and he still uses Twitter @DLaC67.

Can KC Stay Hot in Houston?

The 2-2 Houston Texans host your undefeated Kansas City Chiefs just hours from now, and it's shaping up to be a close, tense game. Vegas considers KC the favorite by 2 or 2 1/2 points, with a spread between 44 and 45. If all goes well, fans in Kansas City could enjoy the Chiefs winning against a tough opponent the same night they enjoy the New York Yankees getting swept out of the postseason. Loving your hometown teams is really the only better sports-inspired emotion than hating the Yankees.

The Chiefs come into NRG Stadium tonight with the only unblemished record in football, but they're once again facing a serious challenge in a primetime game. These two teams have history, and they both have great potential to end the regular season as one of the league's best teams. Let's look over the biggest factors in tonight's game while I give my three quick predictions:

1. Deshaun Watson's performance tonight will go a long way in deciding the winner, so KC's ability to disrupt his effectiveness could be what keeps your Chiefs undefeated. The Texans have allowed their QB to be hit 29 times, which is the 7th-most in football. The Chiefs, for comparison's sake, have seen Smith get hit 25 times, which is 13th in the league. Both offenses feature QB's with remarkable mobility, but both defensive fronts are among the league's scariest.

I'd bet on KC to hold Watson and the Texans to waaay less than the 57 points they scored last Sunday, partly by making the rookie quarterback uncomfortable. Despite the absence of Dee Ford this week, expect at least four QB hits from a combination of Justin Houston, Chris Jones and KC's aesthetically terrifying rookie edge rusher Tanoh Kpassagnon.

2. KC ranks 4th league-wide in turnover differential at +5, while Houston sits at an even 0. Most analysts are calling for a close game tonight, so expect the winner of the turnover battle to win the game. Alex Smith is almost-inexplicably the league's best QB right now, and he's yet to throw a pick, so he should give his team the edge in that turnover battle tonight.

3. Numerous injuries to KC's offensive line makes them additionally susceptible to the Texans' formidable defense tonight. Andy Reid knows this, however, and he'll plan accordingly. Expect the quick-moving, shovel-passing, option-happy Chiefs play-calling to continue its consistent success and earn KC a hard-fought victory. Chiefs win, 20-16.

(Bonus prediction: Carlos Carrasco throws a gem for the Indians tonight, and the Yankees lose 5-2. Stupid Yankees.)

Doug LaCerte still  fails to use his Facebook or consistently tweet @DLaC67, but he's trying, damn it.

3 Quick Predictions for KC in Week 3

The Chiefs and Chargers kick off at the StubHub Center just moments from now. Here are my three quick predictions for Week 3:

1. The Los Angeles Chargers gave up 230 yards through the air to Jay Cutler last week and 219 to Trevor Siemian in Week 1. Alex Smith has thrown for over 250 yards in each of the first two games this year. Smith will continue this success and rack up more passing yards against the Chargers than any other QB this season until Week 8, when the Chargers visit the Patriots.

2. No running back has averaged more than 4.4 yards per carry against the Chargers defense this season. Andy Reid's creative play-calling with Kareem Hunt, and possibly Tyreek Hill, will change that today.

3. The Chiefs have the 10th-highest average of points allowed per game, and only three teams have allowed more yards per game this year. This bend-don't-break stuff could come back to bite us this week. The Chargers scored 21 points against Denver and 17 against Miami, but Philip Rivers and Company could break out any week. I expect San Die-err, uhh, the Chargers, to score more than 21 today. I still predict them to lose to our Chiefs, 27-23.

3 Incredible Week 13 Performances, How to Beat Oakland in Week 14

(Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 2-M.Ryan pass to 81-A.Hooper is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS. DEFENSIVE TWO-POINT ATTEMPT. 29-E.Berry intercepted the try attempt. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.

That's how it looks in the official scoring summary for last Sunday's game in the Georgia Dome, but the video takes us a step closer to understanding the uniquely grand moment Chiefs Kingdom just experienced. Let's take another step back and try, before moving on to Raider Hatin' time, to appreciate that historic moment, as well as others that made this last exhilarating KC win possible.

The Chiefs needed at least three incredible performances to claim their second-straight win over a playoff team in unlikely, nail-biting fashion. The first and most ESPN Films-worthy performance of the week came from Eric Berry. Upon returning to his home turf in Atlanta for the first time since traveling there for chemotherapy treatment, Berry changed the game with a pick-six moments before halftime and a late-game pick-two that stood as the Chiefs' one-point margin of victory.

Despite the purely poetic eight points put up by Berry, KC still needed help from their offense. Actually, the Chiefs are scoring about half their points via special teams and defense, but every team needs their offensive playmakers to make plays on occasion. A 418-yard, 28-point day for the Falcons offense made a solid game from KC's offense essential. Thankfully for Chiefs Kingdom, Alex Smith played perhaps his most complete game of the season.

The #2 and #3 incredible individual performances from last Sunday's win go hand-in-hand, as Smith and Travis Kelce spent the afternoon playing like the planet's best tight end-QB duo. Kelce caught eight of Alex's 21 completed passes and accounted for 140 of Smith's 270 passing yards. Criticism of KC's franchise QB has been so heavy, so recent and so justifiable that it makes his stellar performance last week feel almost surreal. Kelce's output, although impressive, looks much more believable, especially when measured by his recent success; this is his third-straight game with over 100 receiving yards. Tonight, in the bitter cold of a Kansas City winter that just arrived in earnest, short passes to Kelce could be the Chiefs' bread and butter.

This one could be ugly, but mostly for the right reasons. If you haven't heard, it's expected to be brutally cold at Arrowhead. Wind chill is expected to range anywhere from five to 15 degrees Fahrenheit for tonight's game. I'll just leave this tweet here...

Derek Carr in 3 road games in temps below 50
DEN '14 18/36 158 YDS 1/1
DEN '15 12/29 135 YDS 2/0
KC '15 21/33 194 YDS 1/1
52% CMP 4.96 Y/A

— Heath Cummings (@heathcummingssr) December 6, 2016

Okay, those cold-weather numbers come against two stout defensive teams in the Broncos and, you know, our Chiefs. With that in mind, I still don't know how well Carr or the vast majority of quarterbacks can fare in this certain context. It's tough to envision anybody playing well in a road game in the record-breakingly raucous Arrowhead Stadium in temperatures well below freezing against a 9-3 Chiefs team coming off back-to-back stunning, swag-inducing comeback victories over playoff contenders. He may still become the MVP, but Carr will be an underdog at Arrowhead tonight.

The chilly weather could limit both team's passing attacks, but it won't make stopping the run any easier on Kansas City. Oakland enters Week 14 with the NFL's seventh-highest average for rushing yards per game. This is the highest-ranked running game on KC's regular season schedule. Oakland's defense should see a lot of Spencer Ware, too, which means a constantly running clock will limit snaps and make this more of a lower-scoring affair than if it were played in Oakland today.

Unpredictable play from Kansas City's offense also helps to make this game, well, unpredictable. After three weeks of scoring less against their opponent than the average points allowed by that opponent, KC scored more than that average in their last two games. It's hard to know which Alex Smith will show up tonight, but he and the rest of the offense seem to be trending in the right direction, especially with Jeremy Maclin now finally healthy enough to play.

I don't know if it'll be another timely interception from KC's secondary, a game-changing feat of athleticism from Tyreek Hill or a "welcome back, J-Mac" touchdown that will seal the victory for our Chiefs, but I still predict them to win a gritty nail-biter, 23-17. I really hope I can keep this as my desktop background for a while longer.

Doug LaCerte mocks the Raiders on Twitter @DLaC67, and he still uses Facebook.

Do KC's Injuries Spell Doom In Denver?

An intense divisional rivalry returns to Mile High Stadium tonight, when your 7-3 Kansas City Chiefs take on the 7-3 Denver Broncos. This is the first time KC traveled to The Centennial State since pummeling the Broncos 29-13 over a year ago. Despite being two of the NFL’s best teams, neither team in tonight’s game is getting positive production from their quarterbacks.

Alex Smith hasn't looked like a legit franchise QB since he faced the defensively inept New Orleans Saints in Week 7. In fact, Alex only looked "good" in three, maybe four of KC's 10 games played so far this season. Smith went 17 for 24 against the Saints for 214 yards and 2 TDs without throwing a pick. In the week prior, he beat up the Oakland Raiders in Oakland with a 19/22, 224-yard performance that broke the franchise record for single-game completion percentage. In Week 3, Smith helped KC take advantage of a billion Ryan Fitzpatrick turnovers by completing 25 of 33 passes and earning 237 yards through the air.

We can also include his comeback performance against the San Diego Chargers in Week 1, when Alex threw for 363 yards and two touchdowns to overcome a huge deficit and lead KC to a 1-0 record. That's four games out of 10 in which your franchise QB looked average or better. Even with a few flashes of brilliance, Chiefs fans can't help but wonder if Smith is good enough to ever win them a Super Bowl. No team has won a Super Bowl with a subpar quarterback since- wait, never mind.

It can be done, but winning the Big Game without a good/great QB requires an excellent defense. When Kansas City brings all their defensive starters to the field, that's what they have. Sadly, the Chiefs enter this game without many of their most important defensive pieces today, which makes winning in Denver a tough bet. Jaye Howard, Dee Ford and Steven Nelson are out today, while Marcus Peters, Derrick Johnson and Dontari Poe are still listed as questionable. That’s one or two starters at every level of the defense that won’t be playing today. I tried mightily to sell myself on a Chiefs victory tonight, but it doesn’t seem likely.

In order for KC to win tonight, Smith needs to outperform Trevor Siemian. If not for the Chiefs’ current injury issues, I’d say that’s possible, if not likely. Both quarterbacks are similarly unimpressive at this point of the season; Smith ranks 26^th league-wide in yards-per-game, while Siemian ranks 28^th. Alex seemed to miss his Captain Checkdown moniker after impressing many Chiefs fans through Week 7, because he’s recently returned to that pointless short-pass style in a major way. Only six starting QBs have a higher completion percentage than Smith’s 67.2%, but 22 QBs with at least 200 pass attempts have a higher yard-per-catch average than Alex’s 6.9.

Things could get ugly if KC’s patchwork defense allows Siemian to get comfortable. If Denver’s young QB gets enough time in the pocket to consistently find Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, our Chiefs are in trouble. Thomas and Sanders both have over 50 catches, over 650 yards and average over 12 yards per catch. I have to predict a 20-13 loss for our Chiefs today, but it wouldn’t be too disastrous. I’m always stoked for a game against a division rival, but I’ll be even more excited to see KC face the defending champs with a healthy defense. A loss for our Chiefs today won’t be the end of the world, but a loss for the Broncos could really send them scrambling. That would be delicious, but not absolutely necessary for a strong KC playoff run.

Doug LaCerte definitely still uses Twitter @DLaC67, and kinda still uses Facebook.

3 Must-See KC Week 7 Matchups

Man, I just can’t whip up the disdain this week for the visiting 2-3 New Orleans Saints like I did for Oakland in Week 6. It’s to be expected I guess, as the Raiders are organically fun-to-hate, while Drew Brees is just, like, a great guy, you know? I still want him picking Arrowhead Stadium turf out of his facemask after each of the 30 painful sacks he suffers today, but you know, a really awesome guy. So, putting aside today’s fundamental matchup of Brees vs. each member of the Chiefs defense, let’s take a closer look at three must-see matchups:

Marcus Peters vs. Brandin Cooks

Brandin Cooks is one of just five guys in the NFL with more than 13 catches and an average yardage per catch over 17. Only two players have a higher average and as many receptions as Cooks' 17.1 yards and 25 catches. I already predicted that the good guys would win today if KC's star cornerback Marcus Peters manages to pick an errant Brees throw to keep the turnover ratio in the Chiefs' favor. However, if any type of receiver can exploit Peters' all-or-nothing playing style, it's a guy like Brandin Cooks (especially when a guy like Drew Brees is throwing the football.)

Alex Smith vs. Cameron Jordan

The Saints enter Week 7 with injured players on every level of their already-ineffective defense. This puts even more pressure on the few New Orleans defenders who consistently contribute, such as linebacker Cameron Jordan. This two-time Pro Bowler and member of the 2015 All-Pro Team needs to slow KC's offensive down without much competent help around him. Slowing down Alex Smith and Company at Arrowhead seems like a tremendously tough task for Jordan or anybody else after last week's remarkable performance from the Chiefs offense.

Alex Smith's incredibly efficient game against the Raiders is still the talk of the town, and many Chiefs fans can't help wondering aloud whether or not he can repeat it, or at least build on it. KC doesn't need him to complete north of 85% of his passes again in order to beat the 2-3 Saints. The Chiefs just need Smith to convert at key moments against the NFL's second-worst defense. Only a top-tier talent like Cameron Jordan should get the chance to stifle Alex's mojo today.

Spencer Ware vs. Craig Robertson

Okay, so the last matchup technically wasn't even a matchup. To be clear, Eric Fisher and the rest of KC's offensive line is responsible for physically matching up against Cam Jordan today, because duh, I know that. Maybe I should call them something other than matchups? I'll find a smoother-sounding version of "3 Must-See Player Duos Who Significantly Influence One Another’s’ Performances" and I’ll get back to you. This last entry is another non-matchup. That's my only point here.

While Ware isn't exactly matched up against Saints middle linebacker Craig Robertson, they'll be seeing each other often today. Robertson leads his team with 33 combined tackles, and Ware (not to mention Jamaal Charles if he's feeling healthy) should get enough up-front blocking to reach the second level of the New Orleans defense. This is where Robertson's ability or inability to wrap up Chiefs in space could decide this game.

KC's simple, obvious key to success today is running the football with conviction and consistency. If the Chiefs run the ball successfully, they can burn the clock with a tie or the lead, thus keeping the opponent's future Hall of Fame QB on the sideline. A consistent running game limits Brees' chances to hurt KC, and also keep the Chiefs defense well-rested. So, to keep that running game going, KC needs third-down conversions on the ground, and nobody has a bigger defensive impact on the success or failure on third downs than a middle linebacker that leads his team in tackles.

I will continue with this “fool’s errand” of making week-to-week NFL predictions by picking the Chiefs to win a 27-24 thriller at home today. As a bonus, I also predict that Chiefs fans will continue to hit up Saints defensive tackle Nick Fairley’s Twitter feed with love after he suddenly lost his mother earlier this week. We can all sympathize with that kind of pain, whether or not it’s something we want to acknowledge within the sanctum of football Sunday.

Doug LaCerte sometimes uses Twitter @DLaC67. He still has a Facebook page, and he loves his momma very much.

3 Ways to Win in Week 7

Our Kansas City Chiefs won comfortably last week against the 4-2 Oakland Raiders, but it won’t be a walk in the park facing Drew Brees’ 2-3 New Orleans Saints in Week 7. Despite the Saints coming to town with a genuinely intimidating offense run by a future Hall of Famer, there are still ways KC can convincingly claim victory at Arrowhead this Sunday. The Chiefs will win…

1-      …if Alex Smith comes anywhere close to the game he had last week. Smith gave us the most efficient performance in franchise history, and he did it without completing four passes to a single Chief. Seven different Chiefs caught two of Smith's 19 completions, and Alex finished the day without a touchdown pass. It was a strange way to be great, but we witnessed a glimpse of greatness from KC's franchise quarterback last Sunday.

2-      …if the altered defensive line dominates the line of scrimmage like they did last week in Oakland. Chris Jones, Jaye Howard and Dontari Poe all stayed on the field for extra snaps because of Allen Bailey’s injury, and the result was a stifled Raiders offense that mustered only 10 points. The increased playing time for these defensive linemen helped KC earn a commanding victory at a critical point in the season.

These extra snaps are particularly noteworthy for Chris Jones, since KC’s next opponent is the league's pass-happiest. Bailey is strong against the run, but scouts say Jones is a better pass-rush option, and my amateur eyeballs agree. The next three teams on KC’s schedule rank first, third and sixth respectively in team passing play percentage, so the loss of Allen Bailey may actually help the Chiefs.

3-      …if KC keeps the turnover ratio in their favor. Yeah that’s cliché, but the Chiefs haven’t won a game this year in which they lost the turnover ratio. Drew Brees, leader of the NFL’s second-greatest offense and its best pass-attack, will undoubtedly look to burn KC’s Marcus Peters on more than one occasion this Sunday. The Chiefs can still win with Peters getting beat on big plays a couple times, but only if he can claim vengeance with a pick, which he’s proven capable of doing more often than not. The guy’s on pace to be the greatest interception threat of all time, so sure, he can occasionally gamble and lose without costing his team the game.

It’s not quite the same feel as Raiders Week, based largely on the joy of hating Oakland and the inability to hate Drew Brees. I’ll do more research on the Aints and get back to you with more hatred before this Sunday’s noon kickoff.

Doug LaCerte sometimes uses Twitter @DLaC67 when it's not being cyber-attacked or whatever, and he still has a Facebook page.

The Good, The Bad and The Awesome from KC's Week 6 Win

This season’s first installment of the decades-old rivalry between the heroic Kansas City Chiefs and the dastardly Oakland Raiders resulted in a comfortable, important victory for the good guys. Let’s take a look at the good, the bad, and the really, really good from yesterday’s satisfying stomping in Oakland:

The Good – Almost everything? Let's get specific and give some love to KC’s offensive linemen, who comfortably controlled the line of scrimmage throughout the game. Their dominance allowed Alex Smith to complete 19 of his 22 pass attempts (a franchise record for completion percentage) and allowed Spencer Ware to run for 131 yards. Only five people on the planet currently have more 2016 yards from scrimmage than Ware. Any team in the NFL would struggle to beat the Chiefs on a day when Ware has room to run and Smith records a 109.1 passer rating.

The Bad – The questions that Chiefs fans must ask through the week paint the picture of a team with tremendous potential but too many concerns to be considered elite. While Pats fans wonder how many touchdowns Tom Brady's about to throw next week, fans in KC are asking more daunting questions. 

We still don't know when Justin Houston will be himself again, and despite a hope-inducing nine carries against the Raiders for Jamaal Charles, nobody knows how often #25 will be able to contribute going forward. We also don't know if the offensive success KC enjoyed against the Raiders can be replicated against a more legitimate defense. As the Star's Terez A. Paylor wisely pointed out, Oakland's passing defense was the NFL's worst heading into yesterday’s game, and their run defense ranked 27th.

Also, Amari Cooper’s 10 catches for 129 yards makes him the first player with over 100 receiving yards against KC since Week 2, which could reignite fears regarding KC’s weakness against elite wide outs.

The Awesome – Marcus Peters’ feast-or-famine style of play continues to work in his favor, and his fifth pick of the season is a perfect example. After Amari Cooper burned Peters on a double move, Marcus trusted his safety help and immediately reacted by deciding to play the ball, confident that Raiders QB Derek Carr couldn't successfully reach Cooper with the pass. His initial failure and immediate decision to gamble resulted in a momentum-shifting interception.

I would be remiss if I didn't also reflect on an all-time great scoring his first touchdown of the season and increasing his workload to nine carries. The next two teams on KC’s schedule – the New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts – rank 25^th and 24^th respectively in rushing yards allowed per game this season. These next two weeks should be a great indicator of how much Jamaal still has in the tank. If KC scouts are to be believed, we will all witness the resurgence of one of NFL history’s greatest talents within the month of October. Now that would be awesome.

Doug LaCerte occasionally remembers that he exists on Twitter @DLaC67, and he still uses his Facebook to find good Raider Hater memes.

Turnovers Torture Jets Fans, Chiefs Fans Witness Wild Week 3 Win

Well, I did not expect that. I won't feel too bad about predicting a close game and even a loss for our Kansas City Chiefs yesterday, but sometimes I really love being wrong. Travis Kelce and the rest of the tight end corps made me look sorta smart with 10 combined catches for 113 yards, then KC's defense made me look real dumb by forcing roughly a bajillion turnovers and never giving the New York Jets a chance.

Yesterday's Chiefs victory surely incited plenty of happy shouting and high-fives for all, but it does bring up an intriguing and disturbing question: can you bank on a team that's built around creating turnovers? I don't know the answer to that question, and I assume the answer's you'll get are rather philosophical, but forcing turnovers thankfully is not the Chiefs' only way to win. The offense displayed its explosive comeback potency with that Week 1 comeback win over Sandy Eggo, and the defense reacts positively to high-pressure moments nearly every week. But yeah, if you force 9 turnovers every game, you probably don't need the world's best offense or defense.

In case you missed the ridiculous totals, KC's defense was responsible for 8 total turnovers, 3 interceptions in the end zone, 4 consecutive drives that ended with KC picks and countless frowns on the faces of Jets fans.

The two successful, highly-regarded QBs facing off in yesterday's Week 3 battle probably experienced two very different ranges of emotion as they went to bad last night. Alex Smith only missed on eight of his 33 pass attempts, and his grand total of zero interceptions is precisely six less than the total thrown by the opposing QB. Ryan Fitzpatrick entered yesterday's game as the reigning AFC Offensive Player of the Week. He then exited Kansas City with a Week 3 loss, six more picks on his stat sheet and a fresh reminder that Arrowhead Stadium is the toughest NFL road game environment in the entire universe.

Smith can sleep soundly after guiding his team to victory, largely by utilizing the tremendous advantage afforded to him by the Chiefs’ defense. Fitzpatrick can only dream of the next time he gets to throw a pass that doesn't land in the hands of someone wearing a red jersey.

KC's effectiveness in creating turnovers yesterday puts the rest of the league on alert. You better believe this game affects the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Week 4 game plan in a major way. If KC can still stifle the Steelers by forcing even more turnovers next week, we could witness one of the best Sunday Night Football games in recent history. If not, I think the Chiefs will probably lose, but I clearly know nothing.

Doug’s all the way up to….shit, still just 16 Twitter followers @DLaC67, and he occasionally uses his Facebook page to pimp these articles.

Fisher and Company Face Tough Task in Houston

Kansas City Chiefs left tackle Eric Fisher, the often-maligned first overall pick in the 2013 draft, just gave us the best regular season performance in his budding career, but the Houston Texans defense humbles some of the planet’s strongest individuals on a weekly basis. Fisher’s confidence has perhaps never been higher, which is great, because he’ll need it this Sunday.

Pro Football Focus proclaimed that Fisher and his 82.0 grade was the NFL’s best at his position in Week 1. Kansas City right guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif received a grade of 79.4, and right tackle Mitchell Schwartz (who will perhaps see more J.J. Watt than any Chief this time around) received a 75.7. This should obviously bode well for KC’s offense as a whole, but the reigning Deacon Jones Award recipient isn’t the only guy to fear on Houston’s defense.

Whitney Mercilus earned the season’s first AFC Defensive Player of the Week award by terrorizing Jay Cutler and the rest of the Chicago Bears offense. Mercilus finished Week 1 with four hits on the opposing QB, including two sacks and a forced fumble. Nobody in the league has more sacks since Week 6 of last season than this guy. Mercilus’ two sacks and forced fumble occurred when he targeted the Bears’ left tackle – a position now held securely in KC by the aforementioned Eric Fisher.

Fisher succeeded on passing plays and run protection interchangeably last Sunday, and it seemed that he only lost his man when Alex Smith was forced out of the pocket. This Texans defense will surely throw more creative blitz packages at KC than the San Diego Chargers could, and the difference in talent found on the Chargers’ defense and Houston’s is immense. KC needs both their offensive tackles to limit the damage done by Mercilus and Watt in order to keep the offense moving in Houston.

Since pointing out how much I appreciate all 17 people following me on Twitter @DLaC67, I actually lost a follower. Thanks for nothing, whoever you were.

Comeback Chaos for AFC West Competitors

Aaaaaand after a little two-year break, we're back! Here's a Week 1 recap for the entire AFC West, but check back soon for more Chiefs-based analysis:

If you live and die with an AFC West team that was expected to be competitive this year, this should feel like a rather lovely week. Football is back, and you just experienced an extremely entertaining comeback victory that earned your team part of a three-way tie for 1^st place in the division. What a wonderful start to the season it was, unless you’re a Chargers fan.

The Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers began the regular season in memorable fashion Thursday night as 25.4 million people watched from home. This one-point comeback win for the defending champs in the season-opening Super Bowl rematch only served as the first course of intense entertainment served up by the AFC West in Week 1.

The Oakland Raiders took their high hopes and highly regarded quarterback David Carr for a long plane ride southeast on Sunday to start their regular season against the New Orleans Saints. Oakland overcame a four-touchdown, 424-yard day from Drew Brees and a 14-point deficit to start their season 1-0. Carr went blow-for-blow with Brees until the very end, when a Raiders touchdown drive, a two-point conversion and a barely-missed 61-yard field goal attempt from New Orleans resulted in a 25-24 comeback victory for Oakland. Viewers of that game probably presumed nothing would top what they just watched, but as that Raiders game wrapped up, Oakland’s greatest rival was mounting another incredible comeback in Kansas City.

OddsShark.com gave the San Diego Chargers 6.5 points in this matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs, but Philip Rivers and Company got off to an early 24-3 lead at Arrowhead. The Chiefs defense then buckled down and allowed just 6 points in the second half, and KC managed to score 17 points in the 4^th quarter's last 10 minutes to send the game to overtime. Alex Smith then led the Chiefs on a 10-play, 75-yard drive culminating in a game-winning, two-yard touchdown run.

The previous comeback wins for their divisional rivals must alter the emotional flavor of this victory for the Chiefs, and vice versa. These hard-fought games ramp up the tension and excitement within the division that will only escalate as the season continues.

Next week, Kansas City travels to Houston where OddsShark.com says they’ll be two-point underdogs against the Houston Texans – the same organization they thrashed and shut out in the AFC Divisional round of last year’s playoffs. Denver will be heavily favored against the 0-1 Indianapolis Colts, and Oakland will reportedly give 4.5 to the 0-1 Atlanta Falcons in the Raiders’ home opener. The Chargers return to San Diego, where they’ll try for a fresh start against the 0-1 Jacksonville Jaguars. Teams from the AFC West won’t face off again until Week 5, when the Chargers travel to Oakland. The Chiefs then travel to Oakland in Week 6 for what could be one of the biggest games in this great rivalry’s recent history.

Doug LaCerte frequently neglects his Facebook page, and he profoundly appreciates each of the 17 people following him on Twitter @DLaC67.

A Distillation of Hope

I had admittedly low hopes heading into last Sunday's game against Denver. After joyously shouting at my TV screen through the first 20 minutes of that game, I started to think myself a pessimist. Then, as Manning continued to lob bombs through KC's secondary for score after score, reality set in and confirmed my most pressing fears.

Last week's game was tightly contested, and the offense deserves a bulk of the credit for keeping it close. While the defense gave up 35+ points for the second week in a row, the offense never looked better. With a balanced passing attack and a healthy dose of Jamaal, the Chiefs scored 21 points in 20 minutes and gained 452 yards. Five different Chiefs caught at least 3 passes from a remarkably accurate Alex Smith. Donnie Avery's heartbreaking drops happened, but holy crap, let's just never talk about that.

All the offensive productivity witnessed last Sunday was unfortunately trumped by failure on the defensive side of the ball. An injury-riddled KC defense gave up an embarrassing 535 yards for 35 points against the dreaded Peyton-led offense. While it was nice to see the team get hits on Manning with such a pieced-together blitz game, those moments were few and far between. In the end, the longest play in Chiefs history and a positive turnover ratio still weren't enough to help KC outscore the vaunted Denver offense.

After all their defensive struggles, KC still found themselves within one red-zone reception of tying the game with 1:51 left in the game. Getting that close may have proven some things to Kansas City and its fans, but it didn't earn the team a win.

So is it time to panic, Chiefs Kingdom? After a wondrous, undefeated beginning to the 2013 season, KC is now reeling from three straight losses. Although the sky is not yet falling, the ceiling on expectations for this team has certainly been lowered. The Chiefs are all-but locked into the #5 seed, thanks to that defeat at Arrowhead last Sunday. That means road games in the playoffs, and that means greatly diminished chances for KC's first Super Bowl in more than 40 years.

The Chiefs now need to focus on finishing the season strong. One or two late-season losses against inferior opponents could send the Chiefs limping into the playoffs. If you can remember how that usually turns out for KC, you're probably cringing at the possibility right now. That makes the matchup on every coming Sunday just as important as the last three insanely dramatic games we've just witnessed. Stay tuned for a look at the upcoming face-off with RGIII and the struggling-but-talented Washington Redskins.

Doug LaCerte operates this blog and writes for Rantsports.com. Follow him on Twitter @DLaC67, "Like" his awesomely cheesy "Feel Good Songs of the Day" on Facebook and add him to your network on Google. Credit for the linked photo goes to GIFD Sports.

Bye Week Breakdown Part 2: More Mile High Moments

Game day is here, Chiefs fans, and what a game it should be. Tonight's matchup at Mile High with Peyton and the Broncos is arguably the biggest regular season game in decades. Here, we have the league's best offense facing off against its best defense. Now that they're led by the same legendary quarterback that booted KC from the playoffs time and time again, the Broncos have become the two-headed monsters of bitter rivalry.

Both teams' impressively high level of play now makes the rivalry even more heated. These teams' combined winning percentage is the highest of any late-season matchup in the NFL since 1969. Tonight, we could be watching the most intriguing Broncos/Chiefs game since 15 years and 1 day ago, when Shannon Sharp recited Derrick Thomas' girlfriend's phone number to him before every snap. Win or lose, this game is destined to go down on the list of all-time great Broncos/Chiefs battles.

If you're not excited about this, you're soulless, and I don't think we could ever be friends.

When it comes to predicting a winner in this game, a lot of the focus will, and should go to Peyton and this studly Chiefs defense. However, it will be the Denver defense that will stop Manning from pulling away more than anything else. Only seven teams have allowed more points to be scored, and only five have given up more first downs. Denver actually allows more than twice as many points per game (26.4) as Kansas City (12.3).

Turnovers could be another huge factor in this game. While the Chiefs still comfortably lead the league in turnover ratio at +15, the Broncos are sitting in the bottom half at -2. Alex Smith continues to impress with his smart, conservative play, and the special teams squads have executed to great effect without any fumble problems (better knock on wood for that one.)

A win tonight proves a small nation of Chiefs naysayers wrong and shows that KC has it was takes to beat legit competition. A loss gives the Chiefs a tie for the divisional lead and a new sense of insecurity. We know this team is fallible, but we also know they can win close, hard-fought games. Thing is, those hard-fought games have often come against mediocre competition. After tonight, we'll have a better understanding of how they can contend against the league's best teams in the upcoming playoffs again (go ahead and knock on wood again, just in case.) Here are my five predictions for tonight:

1- The Chiefs, who still lead the league in sacks with 36, will look to muck things up for Denver by never giving Manning time to breath. Unfortunately, this forces football's quickest-thinking improviser to, uhh, improvise quickly. KC's offense keeps this one close, and a couple timely turnovers make it even closer. In the end, well-executed screen plays and at least one blown coverage gives Denver the edge. 27-23 Broncos, but man do I hope I'm wrong.

2- Alex Smith is an underrated passer, and Andy Reid isn't afraid of going over the top. Look for Smith to get his first huge connection with Donnie Avery against the aging, struggling Denver secondary. Beers will be spilled in the Chiefs Kingdom.

3- The offensive lines for both teams are flawed, but that won't necessarily translate into a lot of sacks. Expect a lot of hits on the quarterback, but don't expect a boatload of sacks from Tamba and/or Houston. Neither team will sack the opposing QB more than 4 times tonight.

4- Both Smith and Manning will be looking to get the ball out of their hands ASAP tonight, and both QBs are known for being smart and decisive. Despite constant pressure, expect both of them to complete over 60% of their passes.

5- The Chiefs love scoring in unorthodox ways. Expect at least one score from the defense or special teams in the second half to make wrinkles of concern appear on Peyton's billboard-like forehead.


Doug LaCerte operates this blog and does a bunch of other writing for Rant Sports. Trade jokes about Peyton's bulbous head with him on Twitter @DLaC67, "Like" his rude comments about John Elway's teeth on Facebook and add him to your network on Google.

Bye Week Breakdown Part 1: Hopes and Fears

 The Chiefs are now more than halfway through their two-week Peyton preparation, and fans are awaiting this week's Sunday Night Game O' The Week with high hopes and chewed up fingernails. Before we get into some in-depth Bronco talk, let's take a look at how the Chiefs got this far without a loss to their name.

KC entered this opportunely timed bye week after pulling out an unimpressive win against the lowly, injury-riddled Buffalo Bills. Once again, the Chiefs proved that they can make a game exciting in the ugliest of ways. Despite plenty of errant play, KC yet again found a new way to win – just outscore the other team with your defense. Oh, and get really damn lucky.

A multitude of dropped passes by Buffalo receivers, an Alex Smith fumble that absolutely should have been recovered by the Bills' starting punt returner Leonis McKelvin, a horribly overthrown pass from an unknown QB for an easy pick, several missed Bills tackles that included would-be sacks, a 100-yard INT return for a touchdown and several more fortunate turns of events helped the Chiefs to their current undefeated status.

People are pointing out this kind of thing constantly in the Chiefs Kingdom. Although the record remains unblemished, fans know this team has barely snuck away with more than one win against a sub-par opponent. How scared should fans be about facing Peyton at Mile High?

Pretty god damn scared. Were you expecting me to lie or something? This upcoming game is worthy of our fear, if only because it will be the biggest test so far for a team that has barely been passing the NFL equivalent of elementary school spelling quizzes lately. The Chiefs' last two games were harrowing, and they leave fans to wonder how their team will fare against legitimate, playoff-caliber competition.

In their last game, the Chiefs defense gave up 470 yards to a 3-5 Bills team led by a third-string QB. The week prior they allowed Jason Campbell to throw for 293 yards, 2 touchdowns, no picks and a 61% completion percentage. Fans have every reason to fear the most prolific quarterback in the league when their secondary has been this porous.

This weekend, the Report will return to explain why your hopes are just as legitimate as your fears. Tune in then to get a more in-depth breakdown explaining why the defense, on both sides of the ball, could make this game much more interesting than Donkey fans would like to admit.

Doug LaCerte operates this blog and does a bunch of other stuff for RantSports. Make him feel falsely important by following his Twitter @DlaC67, leave him rude comments on his Facebook and add him to your network on Google. 

A Pattern of Success

After the Broncos' grin-inducing defeat last Sunday, your very own Kansas City Chiefs now stand alone as the only undefeated team in the NFL. With another tough victory against the Texans, the Chiefs found another way to win an important game (while still winning in the exact same way? I'll get that to make sense later in the article.) After playing through seven weeks and overcoming numerous legitimate teams, the nation is starting to take notice. This is no anomaly, no matter how nail-bitingly close some of those battles may have been.

This team is finding new ways to win, sorta. What I mean is, every game is different, and they've taken different paths to victory in different circumstances against different types of teams. But, they win with the same formula every game. A tremendous weight is put on a great defense to keep the momentum in their favor with constant pressure and multiple crucial stops, and they've proven their ability to do just that. Special teams tilts the field in KC's favor, and the offense finds a way to put up points, if only when they absolutely need them.

The Chiefs are becoming predictable, in a good way. Mistakes are expected to be limited, the defense is expected to stand strong time after time, and the offense is expected to do just enough with Jamaal and its other pieces to barely outscore the opposition. Most importantly, the Chiefs are now expected to win tough games against competitive teams. These expectations come from a pattern of success, and the stats back up their methods in every important facet of that pattern.

KC is one of only five teams with 10 or more INTs, and they lead the league in defensive points scored and points allowed per game. KC's sack total, 35, is 10 more than anyone in the NFL so far this season. The offense isn't as statistically impressive, as anyone paying attention could safely assume. However, they do lead the league in the all-important turnover ratio, and it's not even close. Three teams are tied for 2^nd place at +7, two are at +6 and five at +5. The Chiefs' ratio currently sits at +11.

Many fans hold their breath now, waiting for the regression to the mean, and I don't blame them. Jamaal may fumble less than most backs with that running style, but he probably still fumbles more than the average running back. Charles averages 4 fumbles in every 16 games played. Only four running backs lost that many fumbles in 2012, and only one did so in 2011. Alex Smith can be trusted to keep the picks at a minimum, but multiple errant passes have bounced off opposing players' numbers this year. Some of those drops will inevitably turn into interceptions, so keep holding your breath. Those drops are just one of many factors keeping the Chiefs unbeaten that are out of KC's control.

Some critics will point to all of Houston's injuries and tout them as the reasons Kansas City won last Sunday. While it's hard to argue with Schaub, Foster, Cushing and others not influencing the game, their replacements weren't slouches. Case Keenum looked way more NFL-ready than virtually anyone would have expected, Tate is a respectable, sturdy back, and the defense still had enough firepower to hold Kansas City to two touchdowns and a field goal. No one can say how the game would have played out with the aforementioned starters in their normal roles. They can only say that Houston put a competitive team out there at game time, and the Chiefs beat them.

A lot of things have gone the Chiefs' way, but that shouldn't take away anything from their 7-0 start. When the decisive moment came in every game this year, whether on offense, defense or special teams, this team stepped up. The gritty, often-ugly fashion in which they've won should simultaneously act as a reminder that the team is imperfect and a statement that they know how to do whatever it takes to get a win.

Whether or not fans in Chiefs Kingdom will admit it, this will to win is going to be legitimately challenged again this Sunday. Each level of competition poses a different psychological challenge, and losing to the lowly Browns is just poetic enough to be feasible. I keep telling myself that this team will lose as soon as they expect winning to be automatic. After a successful but emotional start to the season, this Browns game are as close to that psychological hurdle as they've come so far.

I'll guess that this mental weariness makes the game close in the first half, yet again, but that Andy Reid and the rest of the coaching staff know this issue well enough to prepare the team for it. Reid has been around for a long time, and this potential trap game won't sneak up on him or the Chiefs this Sunday. The first half may be aggravating, but I'm predicting that another win should be comfortably within grasp by the beginning of the 4^th quarter. Official prediction: the Chiefs go 8-0 to start the season, as I do my damnedest to get the Broncos matchup off my mind long enough to prepare for the upcoming Bills game.

Doug LaCerte is a freelance journalist and a writer for Rant Sports. Argue with him on Twitter @DLaC67, leave him a disparaging comment on Facebook, and add him to your circle on Google.