Mahomes Magic in Major Moments Eagerly Expected

Chiefs Kingdom, today we once again reach the zenith of the football fan experience. Our Chiefs face the San Francisco 49ers just hours from now to decide this year's Super Bowl champion. The stakes are at their absolute highest, and two quarterbacks who took dramatically different paths to get here are both desperate to end this part of their story in ultimate victory. We're talking about the $450-million man and the guy making $985K this season. We're talking about the guy with the best start to a career in this sport's history facing off against Mr. Irrelevant. It's one hell of a story already.

For Patrick Mahomes, more greatness is expected, because much greatness has already been produced. His career postseason Passer Rating now stands at 106.3. Since losing to Tampa in the Super Bowl, Patrick's worst performance was a 91.3 Passer Rating, which came from that loss to the Bengals that ended the 2021 Chiefs' season. In that nine-game playoff stretch, Mahomes has recorded a Passer Rating above 130 three times and completed over 73% of his passes six times. After six seasons as a starter, his trophy shelf is already full of more accomplishments than anybody not named Brady or Montana. The Chiefs have never failed to reach the Conference Championship with Mahomes as their starter, and they reach the Super Bowl 2/3rds of the time. 

Nobody in football history has a resume like that. That's not bad for a guy the NFL supposedly figured out last season by masterfully reconfiguring their defense into this mysterious, complex, brand-new concept known as "Cover 2". That's not bad for a guy whose offense was deemed broken and unfixable as recently as Christmas. It feels like it's been about a year-and-a-half, but about seven weeks ago, the Chiefs lost to the Raiders on Christmas Monday. That was the last time the Chiefs lost and the last time Mahomes threw a pick. That's a worthy reminder of just how low we felt (or I felt, I should say) about this team at times through the regular season. 

This Chiefs offense wasn't supposed to be good enough to get them here. Some pundits thought they'd underperform in the frigid KC weather in the Wild Card Round against Miami. More thought Buffalo would finally get their pound of flesh from KC when they met in Orchard Park in the Divisional Round. Most recently, a vocal majority proclaimed with justified reasoning that Baltimore would be the team to stop KC from reaching another Big Game. Baltimore, with Roquan Smith, Kyle Hamilton and Patrick Queen, should've been the team to stop the Chiefs offense, and especially to stop them from attacking multiple levels of the field to leave Travis Kelce open. Mahomes targeted Kelce 11 times, and Kelce had 11 catches for 116 receiving yards and a touchdown.

Despite Brock Purdy's remarkable accomplishments throughout the last couple seasons, we can safely say KC has the better quarterback in today's game. I can actually see similarities in how we're viewing the quarterbacks, head coaches and defenses in this Super Bowl face-off. All three facets of both teams could be considered elite, yet the Chiefs are better in all three. San Fran's defense has been great at times this season, but they've struggled mightily in these playoffs against quarterbacks not named Mahomes and tight ends not named Kelce. San Fran's defense left them with a deficit in the fourth quarter against Jordan Love's Packers, and the Niners only regained the lead in that game with 1:07 left on the clock. They most recently allowed 31 points to Jared Goff's Lions. 

While San Francisco's defense has struggled in the playoffs against teams with offenses less frightening and experienced than the Chiefs, Kansas City's defense has been excellent against teams with other elite offenses. Miami's offense dominated all season long and scored seven points on KC when playoff-time arrived. The great-but-often-overrated Josh Allen played well against KC but failed to score enough to win when he finally got the Chiefs on his home turf in the playoffs. Then, the prolific offense helmed by league MVP Lamar Jackson was limited to a touchdown and a field goal in their unceremonious playoff exit two weeks ago. Teams that dedicated years of focus and funding on beating the Chiefs, teams that built themselves from the ground up to beat the Chiefs, all failed to stop KC from reaching yet another Super Bowl.

San Francisco's offense is elite by every measure. They were top-five in regular season total yards, passing yards, rushing yards and points per game. Only five teams in the league finished the regular season with fewer giveaways. Purdy had too many tight-window throws and come-from-behind drives to deserve the "game manager" tag, especially when his tendency to be aggressive betrays that more than anything else. The fact that he's a legit franchise QB should no longer be questioned, as long as his price tag remains so remarkably low. He deserves his flowers, but he also is the reason I'm predicting San Fran to lose this game.

The Niners' kicker is susceptible to mistakes, while Harrison Butker has been rock solid all year long, and San Fran racked up the second-most penalty yards in football, but I still don't think these will be the deciding factors in this game. Purdy's inability to be as magic as Mahomes will be why me and many others predict a victory for KC today. I know that's like judging a really good basketball player for not being LeBron or a really good rapper for not being Kendrick, but it's the truth. We have a reasonable expectation of Patrick Mahomes to do ridiculous stuff that keeps drives alive when they should die, because that is what he always does. Brock can have a great game and still come up short today.

Plenty of NBA teams in the '90's went up against Jordan's Bulls and suffered heart-breaking defeat. I assume they felt the way Purdy's Niners are about to feel. Sometimes you just go up against an unstoppable force and lose. That's what happened to a lot of teams in the Jordan Era of pro basketball. Now, in the heart of the NFL's Mahomes Era, it's time for Brock and his team to feel that pain. As always, I hope you enjoy this moment with people who love football and love you.

27-20, Chiefs.

Mahomes Makes Chiefs Championship Favorites

Are you ready for the most important football game of your life, Chiefs Kingdom? I thought the extra week between games would be unbearable, but it turned out to be euphoric. Part of me wants it to never end. I really will miss having the world's eyes on this team we all hold so close to our hearts. I may not be emotionally ready for all this, but Patrick Mahomes is, and he'll be the difference maker today. The San Francisco 49ers are a more complete team with a stout defense and a frighteningly effecting running game. The most important player in Chiefs franchise history faces another seriously daunting test, but can his talent, wit and will bring our Chiefs a championship?

You've probably heard about the five first-round picks that make up the the Niners' defensive line. You probably know Richard Sherman, future Hall of Famer defensive back and perennial dream-killer for young NFL quarterbacks. You probably remember a certain edge rusher named Dee Ford, too. The effectiveness of San Fran's defense as a whole should not be understated, but their job today is to stop a guy who was seemingly built in a video game to poke holes in great defenses. Having the best deep threat and the best receiving tight end in the universe doesn't hurt.

If San Fran double-teams Tyreek, then Travis Kelce will gouge the admittedly solid second layer of that defense. Double-team Travis, and the Chiefs will have an excellent route-runner in Tyreek Hill ready to find small spaces in San Francisco's zone-heavy defense. Double-team both of these superstar passing targets and watch Mahomes scramble for big gains while distributing to Sammy Watkins and Mecole Hardman. The pick-your-poison line about multifaceted offenses is cliche, but it fits this team to a T.

The tenacity and poise of San Fran's defense limits the amount of big plays made by every team they face. Patrick is just too good, however, at making something magical happen when a play breaks down or must be extended. These kind of matchups are how truly epic sports moments are born. Mahomes needs to be great to give the Chiefs a chance at a championship, but Chiefs Kingdom knows that nobody in this world is more capable of such greatness.

Kansas City already overcame that 24-point playoff deficit against the Texans. They already overcame the prototypical underdog and ended the Cinderella story for a Titans team which also had the consummate Boogeyman at running back. This 49ers team should concern us as Chiefs fans, but now the Kingdom and the team itself is above fearing any team in football. San Francisco could make our hearts pound out of our chests today by looking really good, but the Kingdom knows that Patrick Mahomes is ready to be great. This is his league now. This is his time.

Enjoy every moment of this, Chiefs Kingdom. Remember how much it means to Andy Reid and Andy Reid's entire family and every person who ever played for Andy or went to the same school as Andy or sold Andy a cheeseburger. Remember how great sports can feel when we're all in this together. Hug the people who love football and love you. This is our time, too. Make the most of it.


Doug LaCerte still neglects his Twitter and Facebook, but he appreciates every member of The Kingdom experiencing this moment with him.

Can KC and Mahomes Make History at Arrowhead?

I already know I'll be a mess of emotions today, whether or not our Kansas City Chiefs can exorcise some demons and win their first divisional round home playoff game in franchise history. The Indianapolis Colts offer Chiefs Kingdom plenty to be afraid of while also leaving fans confident about certain elements of this KC squad. Before I get emotional, I'll take a look at what to fear and what to feel good about today.

A combination of Andrew Luck, a revamped offensive line and a recently stout defense are what got the Colts to this point. These pieces allowed Indy to win nine of their last 10 regular season games and pound the Texans in Houston. Andrew Luck started in all 16 regular season games this year behind a drastically improved O-line and finished with career highs in season Quarterback Rating and QBR. Luck's effectiveness kept Indy in the playoff hunt through the second half of the season. The only time either quarterback threw more interceptions than touchdowns this year is when Patrick Mahomes had two picks and no TD's against Jacksonville.

Luck didn't experience this level of success behind his offensive line from last year, though. The Colts upgraded here big-time in the last draft by picking second team All-Pro Quenton Nelson in the first round and Braden Smith in the third. Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders agree that the Colts have a top-five O-line, while KC's is just middle-of-the-pack.  Indy's pass protection ranks second league-wide, and they allowed the fewest sacks of any team in football.

Despite all the success on Luck's side of the ball, Indy also wouldn't have reached this tournament without impressive contributions from their defense. This squad held four teams below 10 points in the regular season, including a shutout against a hot Dallas Cowboys squad in Week 15. Limiting KC's star tight end is always important for the Chiefs' opponents, and perhaps nobody in the league has more potential to successfully defend Travis Kelce than emerging star Darius Leonard. This studly rookie linebacker is a huge part of why pundits nationwide started saying that Indy has one of the league's best defenses.

However, that trendy take isn't perfect. In their last ten regular season games, the Colts picked up nine wins to barely grab the last spot in the playoffs. Seven of these wins came against the Bills, Raiders, Jags, Titans, Dolphins and Giants. Simply put, those teams do not have good quarterbacks. Your quarterback, the undisputed King of Chiefs Kingdom, just finished his first full regular season as an NFL QB, and he gave us one of the three greatest seasons in NFL QB history.

This same Colts defense that many expert analysts are so high on gave up 27 points to the Giants, 28 to the Raiders, 38 to the New England Patriots, 34 to Cincy and 42 to the mighty New York Jets. The Colts have been good lately, sure, but they've often been good against QB's that are average or worse.

That's far from the only reason to feel good about your Chiefs today. Limiting Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill's effectiveness is as difficult as it is important. Kelce has at least five catches in every game since Week 1. He ranks second this season in total catches, total yards and yards per game. Hill has the fourth-most receiving yards and fifth-highest yards per carry average among anyone in the league and the highest on all remaining playoff squads.

Indy does a great job protecting their QB in passing situations, but both teams excel in this area. KC's front line allowed the fifth-best protection and the fifth-fewest sacks allowed during the regular season. The Chiefs should also have the edge regarding turnovers. Kansas City forced more fumbles than all-but three NFL teams, and only three NFL teams fumbled the ball fewer times. KC's overall give-take differential of +9 is the sixth-best in football, while Indy ranks 13th.

KC led the league in regular season yards per game, despite ranking just 16th in the NFL in rushing yards per game. Indy's running game seemed legit against the Texans last week, but over the year, they average only 107.4 rushing yards per game, which ranks 20th league-wide. Luck's success running this apparently high-flying offense is also deceptive. Luck's regular season performance seemed impressive, but he's usually just "dinkin' and dunkin'".

The Colts completed only 41 plays yielding 20 or more yards this season, which is the fourth-lowest total in football. Kansas City did this 65 times to lead the league. Mahomes' 8.8 yards per passing attempt is second only to Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Luck's 7.2 ranks him 23rd. This year's Chiefs defense struggles mightily against the short-to-intermediate passing attack, but at least the 70-yard heart-breaker pass plays are less likely today.

The coach and the quarterback matter even more than usual in playoff match-ups. Andy Reid is better than Frank Reich. Mahomes, right now, is better than Andrew Luck and perhaps every other player in football. A combination of nasty weather and the NFL's greatest home crowd guarantees that the atmosphere at Arrowhead will be intense. Despite KC's shortcomings, I cannot predict the #6 seed to handle this situation well. I think the Chiefs make history today and beat the Colts 33-31 in a classic.

The "do or die" era of Patrick Mahomes' career begins today, Chiefs Kingdom. For devoted fans, playoff games inflict a certain kind of enjoyable illness. My stomach churns. My heart races like I'm already late for something very important. I did not sleep well last night. I never do before moments like this. This unusual and seemingly unwarranted level of stress is wonderful. It is a unique moment in which something in our heads knows that the stress we're feeling doesn't come from life-threatening responsibility but instead from passion - the passion we have for a team that will soon either etch their names in franchise history with a victory or end their season in defeat. Please remember to enjoy that feeling today, Kingdom, regardless of the outcome.

Doug LaCerte writes about Chiefs stuff, Royals stuff and enjoys anti-Raiders memes on Twitter @DLaC67.