Can KC Continue Playoff Push by Beating Buffalo?

The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills face off tonight to decide who faces Cincy in next week's AFC Championship game. Patrick Mahomes passed for over 404 yards and five touchdowns, and he still didn't outperform Josh Allen. Buffalo's signal caller started the game with seven straight touchdowns against the greatest football coach ever, as Allen and the Bills dismantled Bill Belichick's New England Patriots 47-17. 

Both QBs led prolific passing offenses that showed flaws at times before looking truly elite down the stretch. By the end of the regular season, both teams posted top-five yards per game and points per game. Despite some ups and downs in the regular season, Allen still finished with a 60.8 QBR that ranks sixth league-wide, just a spot behind Patrick Mahomes. Allen and the Bills dominated the Chiefs in Week 5 of the regular season, and they just dominated their opponents on Wild Card Weekend, but the Chiefs are still favored by one or one and a half at home tonight. The huge difference between what the Chiefs were in October and what they have now become is the key reason why KC's last meeting with the Bills had little influence on today's spread.

That first meeting in Week 5 was weird. Both QBs led their teams in rushing yards. No Bill caught more than three passes, but four different Bills finished the day with over 50 receiving yards. Buffalo's defense game-plan limited the production of future Hall of Famers on KC's offense so successfully that Mecole Hardman led the Chiefs in receiving yards and catches that day. Stefon Diggs only caught two passes, but he still racked up 69 receiving yards.

Buffalo beat the Chiefs by 18 that day, and talking head Stephen A. Smith described KC's defense as "trash" and "an atrocity". At that point in the season, he wasn't wrong. Chris Jones was still experimenting with a new position. Melvin Ingram was still a disgruntled Pittsburgh Steeler. I already detailed the changes that made the Chiefs championship contenders again, but it's worth remembering just how hapless things felt back in October. 

I predicted that the Chiefs would lose to the Bills in that first meeting. Much has changed since then. For today, I have to give the edge, as I always do, to the coach and quarterback tandem with proven playoff success. Josh Allen looked flawless last week, but that's his only truly great outing in the playoffs. Both offenses should come down from the stratosphere to be at least slightly less incredible than they were last week. This is especially true for KC, as the Bills defense held opponents to the lowest total yards, passing yards and total points per game this season. Despite this, I'm going with my guy Mahomes to provide a little magic and keep the good times rolling in Kansas City. This matchup has Game of the Year vibes, and I think the Chiefs will survive it, 34-31.

Patriots Provide KC A Key Test Despite Cam Newton's Absence

Our Kansas City Chiefs overcame their presumed competition for the conference crown last week with relative ease, and tonight they face off against a ghost of their peculiar past. The New England Patriots won't be fully operational today without Cam Newton leading the offense, but could Bill Belichick and a defense that still commands respect stun the football world with an upset over our Chiefs? If so, how?

KC could increase New England's odds and increase the heart-rates of fans like me by stumbling out of the gates, and they've been susceptible to that lately. After finishing in the top ten in 1st quarter scoring during their championship campaign, the Chiefs entered Week 4 ranking second-to-last in the NFL with 2.2 first quarter points per game this season. New England's defense has allowed only 3.3 points to opponents in the 1st quarter this season, and that can only be bested by six defenses in football.

A slow start for KC could save the Pats from an early slaughter, and their defenses excels at disrupting opponents' short-to-intermediate passing game. It's almost like Bill looked at what his own team accomplishes with the same offensive strategy and said, "don't let that happen to my defense." Today will provide us with a strength-on-strength matchup featuring perhaps the two best football minds in the game. The intrigue of such a meeting of the minds makes me even more bummed that we don't get to see how this new Pats squad looks with Cam healthy.

Stats indicate that Patrick Mahomes is averaging shorter, quicker passes this season, which may sound like a let-down to some fans in the Kingdom. However, there's a big, beautiful reason why football savant Andy Reid utilized this change in strategy, and his multi-faceted reasoning further exemplifies his unique savvy.

First, it's important to note that this short-pass strategy gives defenses the old Muhammad Ali "okey-doke" before delivering some key knockouts by landing long-pass haymakers, kinda like how KC just victimized the highly-touted Baltimore Ravens. It also makes the Chiefs' newest weapon more unpredictable, as Clyde Edwards-Hellaire could damage a defense equally via run or reception. Clyde is key to this change because he completes Kansas City's total coverage of the field with their offense. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce already stretch opposing defenses to their limits, but now the new #25 is here to turn "spread the field" into a major understatement. If he proves to be worthy of a first-round pick, it's gonna feel like cheating.

I don't think the Pats can stop the Chiefs when Cam is healthy, and part of me hopes that's some juicy foreshadowing, but that means my prediction for today isn't in doubt. I think our Chiefs win a comfy 34-17 game while I imagine Bill wringing his hands like a comic book villain and calculating his strategy for next time...

Can KC Win Arrowhead's Biggest Game Ever?

Tomorrow's game will be a one-of-a-kind battle against two teams with extremely different histories. The New England Patriots just reached their eighth consecutive AFC Conference Championship game. Our Kansas City Chiefs haven't reached a conference championship game in a quarter-century, and they haven't won one in a half-century. Those were the only other times in team history KC made it this far. New England won their division in each of their last 15 seasons with a healthy Tom Brady. The Chiefs, on the other hand, just won their first divisional round home game in team history. In the 17 seasons when the Pats have The Hoodie and a healthy Brady, they've reached the Super Bowl eight times. That's an almost-LeBron-like level of excellence, and it's completely unmatched in professional football.

However, Chiefs Kingdom has numerous reasons to believe our squad is still Super Bowl-bound. That same Tom Brady of legend looks very human in road games this year. The 11-5 Pats took every L on their schedule on the road, losing to the Pittsburgh Steelers, Miami Dolphins, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans and Detroit Lions. None of those teams reached the playoffs this year, and none of them benefit from the record-breaking, raucous home crowd we provide. The vastly different histories of these franchises won't mean much to members of the Kingdom at Arrowhead this Sunday. All that really matters is the effectiveness of the two teams on the field. Without taking away from the historical importance of this game, let's momentarily suspend all pretense and talk numbers.

Patrick Mahomes completely changes the way I analyze this game. The incredible offense he leads makes me focus less on how the Chiefs can limit the great Tom Brady and more on how the Pats defense can limit Patrick. The only teams that held KC to below 30 points were the Denver Broncos, Arizona Cardinals, Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers have Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa, and the three other defenses have top-11 season sack totals. How do the rushing attacks from KC and New England compare to the rest of the league?

Only Aaron Donald and J.J Watt have more sacks than emerging Chiefs stud Chris Jones this year. Dee Ford's 13 sacks ranks 7th league-wide. 13 sacks is also the season sacks total for the Oakland Raiders. The whole team. New England tied the New York Giants for the second-lowest sacks total in the league with 30.

So, it seemingly takes a strong pass-rushing attack to limit KC's offense, and the Pats don't have that. But, only two of the four teams that beat the Chiefs in the regular season held them under 40 points. The teams that won against KC all had a prolific passer, a prolific coach, or both. The club that unarguably has both is the same one now standing between Chiefs Kingdom and a Super Bowl.

I said last week that Reid/Mahomes > Reich/Luck, but Bill Belichick/Brady > every other coach/quarterback combo ever. The amazing home crowd at Arrowhead, the uncanny talent on the offensive side of the ball and a duo of talented pass-rushers will give the Chiefs a very realistic shot to win tomorrow. Sadly, I cannot predict that such a young QB can overcome the greatest coach/quarterback tandem in history. I predict that the dastardly Pats sneak away with a 34-33 victory. It almost hurts me to imagine the delirious joy I'll feel if Mahomes proves me wrong.

This is the most important moment in Chiefs history in at least 25 years. Are you ready, Kingdom?

Doug LaCerte writes about the Chiefs and the Royals, and he occasionally does stuff on Twitter @DLaC67.