KC Can Bounce Back By Attacking Raiders' Unproven QB

Chiefs Kingdom is fully aware that the Kansas City Chiefs are the better team on paper for today's game, but how will the Chiefs bounce back from last week's loss to the Philadelphia Eagles? Yes, the Chiefs lost to the Eagles last week, and that still stings, but we have to remember all the things that went wrong in order for KC to lose that game. Travis Kelce fumbled the ball in the red zone. Patrick Mahomes threw a pick in the dang end zone. Justin Watson, Marquez Valdez-Scantling and even Kelce dropped game-altering, catchable balls. After all that, the Chiefs lost to the defending NFC champs by four.

Despite also coming off a loss, the Raiders will be pumped up for this game. The dismissal of former head coach Josh McDaniels seems to have lifted a dark cloud from over the franchise. A win over KC would be monumental for the Raiders and their interim head coach Antonio Pierce. The old saying would propose that Vegas has everything to win while KC has everything to lose. Luckily for Chiefs fans, predicting a victory for Vegas (the football team) against any opponent that isn't a tomato can is something that Vegas (the oddsmakers) would never do.

The theme for the Las Vegas Raiders this season has been simple, if not intriguing: they lost to every team they played that doesn't stink. These Raiders, who are surprisingly still in the playoff hunt past the half-way point of this season, collected W's when facing the Broncos, Packers, Pats, Giants and Jets. None of those teams have winning records. Even the Raiders' weapons that may frighten most other teams in the league will match up poorly against the Chiefs.

Davante Adams still looks like an elite receiver, but the Chiefs excel in handling elite receivers now. The L'Jarius Sneed/Trent McDuffie tandem helped limit A.J. Brown to a single catch for eight yards last week, and I've extensively covered them shutting down other great wide-outs this year. The Raiders' ability to keep their QB upright will be tested by the Chiefs' elite pass-rush today, as well. Vegas' 2.5 sacks allowed per game is almost exactly the league average - they're tied for 17th in that category - and the Chiefs 3.6 sacks per game is the NFL's second-highest.

Another key matchup to watch for will be Isiah Pacheco facing off against the Raiders run defense. Although Vegas held the Dolphins Raheem Mostert mostly in-check last week, they've been one of the league's worst over the course of the regular season. Pacheco ran the ball 19 times for 89 yards against Philly's elite run defense last week. He's only 27 carries and 116 rushing yards away from his total production last season. Another solid performance from Pacheco today could ensure that he surpasses last season's production well before Christmas this year.

Pacheco and KC's defense should be enough to avoid some Cinderella nonsense today. The Raiders starting quarterback and 135th draft pick in the latest draft, Aidan O'Connell, hasn't done enough to instill nearly that much faith in Vegas. I know the Chiefs have had their struggles lately, but we cannot abandon all logic and presume KC would lose a game like this. The Chiefs offense isn't going to fix itself overnight, though. I'm predicting an ugly 24-16 victory for Kansas City.

Potential MVPs Meet Overseas as KC, Miami Face Off in Frankfurt

8:30 AM Central Time feels way too damn early for meaningful NFL football. Can't we just make the Europeans go to their stadium when it's proper football-time here in the country that we all know matters the most? The 6-2 Kansas City Chiefs face the 6-2 Miami Dolphins in Frankfurt, Germany at what seems like the crack of dawn. The Dolphins headed across the Pacific with well-earned confidence after beating three of their last four opponents by at least two touchdowns. The vibes for the Chiefs right now feel way, way different.

Kansas City just lost an ugly game to the Denver Broncos, thanks in large part to turning over the ball five times and finishing the game with a -4 turnover differential. Throughout the history of the NFL, teams win 2.6% of games when losing the turnover battle by four or more. Patrick Mahomes finished a game without a touchdown pass for the first time since 2021. The Chiefs haven't turned the ball over more than three times since October of '21. They haven't turned the ball over five times since that infamous 54-51 loss to the L.A Rams on November 19th, 2018.

I trust KC to at least limit the problems that plagued them last week when they face off with Miami today. The Chiefs haven't lost consecutive games since the second and third week of the '21 season. It's highly unlikely that we see Mahomes post another QBR anywhere close to his 42.5 from last week's stinker at Mile-High. Despite my very reasonable expectations of a cleaner game from the Chiefs, it's important to recognize that the Dolphins are a vastly more dangerous team than the Broncos. KC had reason to fear the Dolphins before losing Nick Bolton and finishing practice for the week without knowing Willie Gay's status for the game. Weaknesses based on those health issues, as well as the return of elite Miami cornerback Jalen Ramsey, amplified Chiefs Kingdom's sense of concern surrounding this game.

As fans, we already have the aforementioned reasons to worry, and I haven't even talked about the two potential league MVP's on the Dolphins roster yet. Tyreek Hill is on pace for one of the greatest seasons ever for a wide receiver. His resume for the NFL's Most Valuable Player award has become more and more of a talking point for fans worldwide as he gets deeper into the regular season with outstanding performances nearly every week. The guy passing to him also deserves credit for proving, at least to this point, that he is also worthy of being called elite. Tua Tagovailoa is among the three likeliest players to win MVP this year according to all seven sports-books measured by VegasInsider.com's recent report. Just like with the MVP betting odds, Mahomes and Tua both rank between first and third league-wide in passing yards, touchdown passes and total QBR this season. 

KC's secondary should give them the advantage as two of the best QB's in football face off in Frankfurt today. The Chiefs secondary continues to prove itself as one of the NFL's best, and I believe (and hope) that they'll be the difference-makers. L'Jarius Sneed, Trent McDuffie and Justin Reid in particular are among the league's most efficient at stopping opposing wide receivers. The aforementioned Dolphins corner Jalen Ramsey is still capable of being the league's absolute best at his position, but Miami's secondary as a whole has been unimpressive. KC's secondary holds their opponents to only 176.1 passing yards per game this season - the second-lowest average in football. The Dolphins' average of 221.5 passing yards allowed per game ranks 16th in that category.

I expect the Chiefs to limit their mistakes this week and play more like the prolific passing team we know they can be. Just remember that if the Chiefs can limit themselves to one Mahomes interception, one Chiefs receiver fumble after completing a catch and one Mecole Hardman muffed punt, they would still only suffer 60% of the self-inflicted damage they burdened themselves with last week. That game was clearly an improbably disaster that should not decide how the Chiefs are perceived moving forward. If this dynasty of a team can't earn a fan's trust, no team can.

While the Chiefs have earned the trust of the Kingdom, 'phins fans still cannot be so sure. Miami has played two teams that currently have winning records and been comfortably handled by both of them. Their wins all came against teams who have losing records at this point of the season and look destined for a top-five pick in next year's draft. Tyreek may scare the hell out of his former fans in KC today, but I'm predicting a thrilling 28-27 victory for the Chiefs.

I Re-Watched Last Year's AFC Championship So You Don't Have To

Last year's AFC Championship game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals broke every heart in Chiefs Kingdom. Selective memory made it genuinely difficult for me to recall specifics from that game, lest the thought of it hurt me all over again. I thought it would be wise to watch it one final time before this week's Bengals-Chiefs faceoff. The viewing experience gave me indigestion. 

It all started so well; KC's defense forces a three-and-out on the Bengals' first drive, then Mahomes immediately marches down the field for a first-drive touchdown. Cincy's offense begins moving the ball methodically on the next possession as the Chiefs fail to stop either Joe - Mixon or Burrow. The Bengals push deep into enemy territory, but KC's secondary disrupts two straight pass attempts to the end zone to force Cincinnati to kick a 32-yard field goal, resulting in a 7-3 score nearing the end of the first quarter.

KC responds with a 44-yard connection to Mecole Hardman on the first play of the following drive, which ends with a TD pass to Kelce. Cincy is quickly forced to punt on the next drive, leaving KC with a 14-3 lead and the ball with 10 minutes to play in the second half. Successful and aggressive play-calling immediately leads KC to yet another TD, this time to Hardman. It was five minutes 'til halftime and the Chiefs were up 18. I know what happened next, but how the hell did it happen? Just how?

Veteran running back Samaje Perine slips through some porous defense before the end of the first half for a quick Cincy touchdown. With a minute and a second, KC moves the ball swiftly with quick shots to Hill and Kelce. A pass interference call on Tyreek leaves the Chiefs with nine seconds and a 1st and Goal on the 1 yard-line. An incompletion leaves them five seconds. A completed pass for no gain to Tyreek leaves no time on the clock and a heavy sense of regret in the hearts of everyone in Chiefs Kingdom. Despite driving all the way to Cincinnati's 1 yard-line, the Chiefs failed to put more points on the board.

No problem though, right? The Chiefs get the ball to star the second half, and they're already up 11, so it's still all good. Then KC fails to get a single first down in this possession, and they punt. The Bengals offense responds to the roars of the Arrowhead faithful with impressive competence, until a Delay of Game penalty stifles the drive and forces a punt of their own.

The Chiefs start on their own 7 yard-line. They soon punt from the 25. Burrow, Chase and Mixon look frighteningly good as they march into Chiefs territory. KC's defense tightens up to limit Cincy to a field goal. KC gets the ball back with a lead and under five to play in the third. Everything should have been fine. 

On the second play of the possession, Mahomes feels the pressure of a blitz coming from his right, and he fires a quick pass to his left that bounces off the hands of another defender closing in on him. The ball bounces upward and lands in the hands of Bengals defensive tackle B.J Hill. This is the moment in my re-watching experience that I paused the video and went to grab some cookies. Not even the good kind, but the cheap ones, the off-brand chocolate chip cookies that only I seem to enjoy, even though they make my stomach ache. I only stoop to eating them when I have a particularly low sense of self worth. I returned to the video prepared to hurt myself in more ways than one. 

So now it's Bengals' ball with a little over two to play in the third. Before the fourth quarter begins, Cincy ties the game with a touchdown drive and two-point conversion. KC responds by going three-and-out.

 L'Jarius Sneed then brings the Arrowhead crowd to an unhealthy decibel level with an interception that quickly ends the Bengals' next possession. Despite all their stumbles, the Chiefs still had the ball in Mahomes' hands with a tie and under 14 left in regulation. The Chiefs responded to this opportunity by going three-and-out, as Mahomes is sacked on third down on consecutive possessions. 

A memorable third-down scramble from Burrow keeps the Bengals' next drive alive despite consistent pressure from KC. On consecutive third downs - both 3rd and 7 - Cincy's remarkable young QB uses his legs to move the chains. The bend-don't-break Chiefs defense gets a stop on Burrow's Bengals eventually, but not before Cincy gets in range for Evan McPherson to hit a 52-yard field goal that gives the Bengals the lead with only six minutes left in regulation.

Patrick Mahomes was made for moments like this. He nearly proves it with a long drive that gave KC a first down on Cincinnati's 4 yard-line. KC failed in ugly fashion to punch it in, but instead relied on Harrison Butker to tie the game with a 44-yarder as time expired. 

Overtime. KC wins the toss. Incomplete pass on first down. Another on second down that almost results in an interception. On third and 10, Mahomes goes deep downfield to Tyreek in double coverage. Bengals safetey Jessie Bates III gets a hand in between Hills' hands as Tyreek leaps up and reaches for the ball. Bates swats the pass away, and it lands in the hands of his fellow Bengals defender Von Bell. A Mahomes interception gives Burrow the ball in overtime.

The Chiefs defense cannot stop the Bengals on the ground or through the air. Burrow sets his team up for a 31 yarder. The kick is good. Mahomes winces as Burrow celebrates. Pleasantries are exchanged as Chiefs fans everywhere hold their reeling heads in their hands. Kansas City just scored three touchdowns on their first three drives of the game. The man with the best start to a career of anyone in the history of his position was one step away from the sport's ultimate stage, and he came up short. That hurt Chiefs Kingdom in a unique and unforgettable fashion.

Winning today would be little solace. This is only the 12th chapter of a 17-part story, and if that story goes well enough, KC gets to start a new and more important story when the playoffs begin. Only when the Bengals and Chiefs meet again when it's do-or-die will KC get a chance at true redemption. Consider this afternoon's game a tease of a bigger story yet to be told. With all that foreshadowing out of the way, we do have a slightly more technical topic to consider.

Burrow killed KC's defense in aforementioned crucial moments by using his legs on third down. I don't get paid the big bucks to know how to limit that, especially since Madden was enough to teach me that a QB spy strategy simply leaves a team one less defender to guard one of the Bengals' dangerous wide receivers. Whatever Steve Spagnuolo can think of to limit this will be utilized from now on, but it may be as simple as guys in the middle of KC's defense like Nick Bolton using their athleticism to close on Burrow ASAP on third down. Bolton's rapid improvement and the growth of Willie Gay should mean KC is better equipped at dealing with Burrow's scrambling skills this time.

I cannot predict a win for KC today. Until proven otherwise, Cincy has KC's number. Nobody knows how effective Ja'Marr Chase will be today after missing four games with a hairline fracture in his hip. Cincinnati is fresh off an exciting win over a solid Tennessee Titans team who also lost to the Bengals in the playoffs last year. The Chiefs are coming off a yawn-inducing victory over a Los Angeles Rams team who had to start their relatively unknown third-string quarterback. I'm predicting another thriller but unfortunately another defeat at the hands of Joe Burrow. 30-27, Bengals. Don't forget, though; the real test comes in January.

Can Chargers Damage Chiefs' Championship Chances?

This week's Thursday Night Football will present the most important game of the regular season for the AFC West. All eyes will be on the 9-4 Kansas City Chiefs when they line up against the 8-5 Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium tonight. As fans prepare for this pivotal meeting, as well as all the playoff drama that's soon to come, I'm coming to grips with a bitter truth regarding the quarterbacks in tonight's game.

Chiefs Kingdom knows how great Patrick Mahomes is, but Justin Herbert has been better than our guy this season. Don't kill the messenger - it's a simple mathematical fact. Herbert's been better in every major statistic except for sacks and sack yards lost. When they faced off earlier this season, the young Chargers QB threw for four touchdowns without a turnover and recorded an Adjusted QBR that was 23 points higher than Patrick's. There is no denying that Herbert won the first battle of the season. The Chargers winning the war tonight would do serious damage to the Chiefs' chances at claiming another championship.

This game could come down to the last possession, as indicated by the three-point spread, and the way Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo coaches around a few key omissions to the defense could decide who wins tonight. Both teams could be dealing with major omissions to the roster, but we know for sure that Kansas City will be without Chris Jones, Willie Gay and L'Jarius Sneed. I was happy to give Spagnuolo credit recently for this defense's drastic improvement, but tonight is his biggest test of this regular season. I have faith that Spags can pass that test, especially because I have faith in guys like Nick Bolton and conference defensive player of the week Mike Hughes to make the most of their increased snap count.

It's a good time to be hot, and nobody's hotter than the Chiefs right now. Nobody's reached double-digits on this defense in three games, and nobody's scored more than 17 in the last six. Only five teams in the NFL now hold their opponents to fewer points per game. That's an objectively good defense, and a good defense succeeds even when missing key talent. I believe the Chiefs can meet these somewhat lofty expectations and win this one 31-24.

Impressive Defense Improves Chiefs' Championship Chances

Major improvements to the Kansas City Chiefs defense have completely altered the way the world views this team. Don't forget that Kansas City took a losing record into November this year. They allowed each team they faced to score at least 29 points in every game from the start of this season until the middle of October. That defense put Chiefs Kingdom in a position where we wondered if KC would miss out on the postseason completely. Now, after all those fear-inducing failures, the Chiefs are a first-place 7-4 team with realistic Super Bowl aspirations. After one of the worst starts to a season in the history of NFL defenses, the Chiefs' 22.7 points allowed per game currently ranks as exactly league average.

It's no surprise that it took various specific changes to make this transformation possible. Brett Veach's strategy of never overspending on cornerbacks works wonders when under-rated players like Rashaud Fenton, L'Jarius Sneed and Charvarius Ward avoid the injury report. The coinciding addition of Melvin Ingram seems to have ended the experiment of Chris Jones as an edge rusher for now. This decision immediately improved KC's ability to pressure opposing quarterbacks.

Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo deserves a ton of credit for limiting snaps for Chiefs defenders susceptible to giving up big plays. Spags also deserves praise for expanding the roles of emerging young talent like Nick Bolton and Willie Gay. The center of Kansas City's defense hasn't looked this good since Derrick Johnson's prime, and it could be key to making the Chiefs a championship contender again.

All these changes give the Chiefs a tangibly greater chance of success every time they take the field. Kansas City allowed 32.6 points per game in their first five games of the season. They have allowed 11.75 points per game in their last four. I'm aware these victories came against Daniel Jones, Jordan Love and a Dallas Cowboys team without their two best receivers. Dallas didn't have problems putting up points without Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb on Turkey Day, but I digress. The Chiefs' improvements on defense surely have something to do with the teams they're playing, but tests against elite teams with elite quarterbacks are rare. Without this improvement from the defense, the Chiefs probably wouldn't have this four-game winning streak, and our playoff dreams would already be dashed.