Allen Again Standing In the Way of Chiefs Chasing Championship History

I want to be the guy who does deep dives on the opposition's second-stringers, and sometimes I am, but today's story being told on the field revolves around the two historically great quarterbacks trying to reach the Super Bowl. Josh Allen's greatness is the only obstacle left for a Kansas City Chiefs team trying to reach their fifth Super Bowl in six years. Allen is either the MVP or the runner-up this season. A Bills team that many pundits expected to regress wound up tying their franchise record for regular season wins, thanks largely to Allen's poised performance and a ridiculously strong team turnover differential.

The Chiefs' turnover differential of +6 was bested by only nine teams in the league this season. The Bills led the league in turnover differential by a margin of eight. Their differential is precisely four-times Kansas City's. This huge disparity exists largely because Josh Allen reduced his interceptions from 18 in 2023 to just six this season. This improvement didn't cost Buffalo their ability to score a bunch of points, either; Buffalo's starters scored at least 30 points in 12 of their 16 regular season opportunities, and they've scored at least 40 in three of their last four. The only bright side for Chiefs fans here is that this Chiefs defense - especially in the playoffs - outclasses anything the Bills experienced this season.

KC's defense allowed the fourth-fewest points per game in the regular season. Buffalo did not play a team that allowed fewer. The Bills defeated the Chiefs earlier this season and scored 30, and when Buffalo faced the Detroit Lions' 7th-ranked scoring defense, Allen's offense put up 48. A key factor here was Detroit finishing that game with zero sacks. Josh has been incredible using his legs this season, but he won't get away with that as much today.

Steve Spagnuolo's defense sacked Houston's C.J. Stroud eight times last week. That came from six different Chiefs and included five sacks in the fourth quarter. Spags' unique prowess in sending blitzes that confuse opposing offenses is an intriguing skill to have when facing a quarterback who excels at stealing first downs with his legs when no passing options are available. It will be fascinating to see how Spagnuolo balances his clever blitz packages with limiting Allen's running skills. Since I believe in the other Hall of Fame-caliber talent doing what they always do in the playoffs, this Spags Vs. Allen chess match should be what decides today's winner.

Today's game should be a true nail-biter. The Bills will likely win the turnover battle. Josh Allen will invariably frustrate Chiefs fans everywhere by converting some crucial third or fourth downs using his scrambling skills. The connection between Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce will continue to be the greatest in NFL history, but Buffalo's desire to limit it could lead to the potential for a home run play to someone like Xavier Worthy or Hollywood Brown. All this should result in an all-time classic victory for our Chiefs, 30-27, in overtime. I hope you can enjoy all of it with people who love football and love you.

Texans' Tepid Offense Cannot Compare to KC's Playoff Prowess

It's do-or-die time for everyone left standing in the NFL, and the Kansas City Chiefs cannot underestimate their opponent in today's game. The 10-7 Houston Texans have a strong defense that applies pressure as well as any team in football, and we all know it takes a rare talent at quarterback to lead their team to the playoffs in their first two seasons in the league. C.J Stroud throwing to Nico Collins has proven to be one of the most dangerous connections in all of football. A strong draft just earned Houston a starter at right tackle, strong safety and nickelback. Despite all these reasons for hope in Houston, their season should end today.

C.J. Stroud struggled to make the Texans offense trustworthy this season. In fact, he struggled to improve upon his remarkable rookie campaign in any way. Houston averaged 21.9 points in the regular season, which is 19th in the league. Last year, their average was 22.2. More importantly, Houston was a 10-7 playoff team both seasons, but fans hoping to break that glass ceiling and reach the AFC Championship game may be feeling a growing sense of concern. 

Stroud's 2023 average for yards per pass attempt of 8.2 dropped to 7 this season. He threw three fewer touchdowns and seven more picks while getting sacked 14 more times. This ultimately led to a 13.8-point drop-off in Passer Rating from last season to now. It's worth noting, though, that he only had Stefon Diggs for eight games this season. We should also keep in mind that the Texans' success last year resulted in them playing a tougher schedule, which meant facing tougher defenses. 

That tougher schedule forced Houston to play six of this season's playoff teams. The Texans lost five of those games. Houston allowed the sixth-fewest passing yards per game to opponents in the regular season, but when they faced a top-shelf offense, they usually lost. They lost 34-7 to Minnesota, 31-2 to the Ravens and 27-19 to a Chiefs team without Hollywood Brown. It seems like even the healthier version of the Texans struggle against playoff teams with an imposing offense, and Chiefs teams led by Mahomes in the playoffs perfectly fit that description.

If the Texans offense fails to improve upon its recent standard, keeping up with KC's playoff offense will be impossible. Prior to putting up 32 on a Los Angeles Chargers team that gifted Houston four interceptions, the Texans didn't score above 23 in their last five regular season games. Patrick Mahomes averages 29.9 points per playoff games over 18 games, and that isn't just the Tyreek Hill era of offense skewing the statistics. In the 10 playoff games since KC traded Hill away, they average 29.4 points per game. Last year's Baltimore Ravens were the only team to hold KC to fewer than 23 points in those 10 games.

It's a shame how much injuries will affect this game, but it gives the Chiefs a major advantage today. A healthy Isiah Pacheco and Hollywood Brown makes the Chiefs offense closer to full-strength than it's been all year. The losses of Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell makes the Texans wide receiver room the most depleted it's been all year. Combine Mahomes' and Travis Kelce's legendary playoff production with Houston's recent mediocrity on offense, and we have the recipe for another Chiefs playoff victory. I'm predicting a lopsided first half followed by some garbage-time scoring from Houston that results in a 27-20 win for Kansas City. I hope you get the chance to enjoy it all with people who love football and love you.

Will Tough Texans Test Mahomes' Messed-Up Ankle?

Chiefs Kingdom is concerned about Patrick Mahomes. No, it's not because of his relatively low Passer Rating in 2024. The Kingdom is concerned about Mahomes - the most important athlete in Kansas City sports history - facing a strong Houston Texans pass-rush after an ankle injury. Houston ranks second league-wide in sacks with 45, and prior to last week's game, the Chiefs went through a three-game stretch when they allowed Mahomes to get sacked 13 times. Keeping Mahomes upright and healthy today will be key in keeping the 11-3 Buffalo Bills far away from the #1 seed in the AFC playoff bracket.

A hamstring injury to newly acquired left tackle D.J. Humphries could make this difficult, but I'm not worried about KC overcoming this issue. Last week, the Chiefs responded to this injury by placing all-time great left guard Joe Thuney at the left tackle position. This resulted in exactly zero sacks allowed for Kansas City. Mahomes obviously still dealth with pressure to the point where his ankle got twisted up and hurt, but it doesn't take a major in mathematics to know that zero sacks is the best number of sacks to allow. The rest of the math indicates that KC will have a tough time scoring on this stout Texans defense regardless of Mahomes' ability to overcome this much-talked-about bum ankle.

Houston's defense ranks in the top ten in passing yards and points allowed this season. They rank fourth overall in total yards allowed. Their defense also excels at forcing turnovers. The Texans defense currently ranks second league-wide in interceptions and total takeaways with 19 and 28, respectively. All this is evidence that Kansas City will struggle to score a bunch, but even Texans fans would agree that the Chiefs don't need 30 points on the board to achieve victory today.

C.J. Stroud is experiencing a legitimate sophomore slump. His impressive rookie season Passer Rating of 100.8 has dropped to 89 this season. His future is still bright, but it's a clear and noteworthy drop-off in production. Stroud's passing yards-per-game average is down over 40 yards, he's nearly doubled his interception total, and he's thrown six fewer touchdown passes in this season's 14 games than in the 15 games he played in last season. With both QB's in today's game not living up to their lofty standards of excellence, it may be time for the running backs to shine.

Despite missing key pieces to their rushing attack throughout practically the entire season, the Chiefs have raised their rushing yards-per-game average from 104.9 last season to 112.1. With a healthy Isiah Pacheco and a Kareem Hunt with way more tread on the tires than almost anyone expected, that average can be improved upon over these last three games of the season. For that reason, I'm expecting KC to win a gritty 20-16 game today. KC has a nice two-game cushion over Buffalo in that race for the #1 seed, but the Bills play the Pats twice in three weeks with the Jets in-between. KC's chance to secure the playoffs bye week and also rest their starters in the final week of the regular season will be all the motivation they need to finish the regular season looking strong.