Texans' Tepid Offense Cannot Compare to KC's Playoff Prowess

It's do-or-die time for everyone left standing in the NFL, and the Kansas City Chiefs cannot underestimate their opponent in today's game. The 10-7 Houston Texans have a strong defense that applies pressure as well as any team in football, and we all know it takes a rare talent at quarterback to lead their team to the playoffs in their first two seasons in the league. C.J Stroud throwing to Nico Collins has proven to be one of the most dangerous connections in all of football. A strong draft just earned Houston a starter at right tackle, strong safety and nickelback. Despite all these reasons for hope in Houston, their season should end today.

C.J. Stroud struggled to make the Texans offense trustworthy this season. In fact, he struggled to improve upon his remarkable rookie campaign in any way. Houston averaged 21.9 points in the regular season, which is 19th in the league. Last year, their average was 22.2. More importantly, Houston was a 10-7 playoff team both seasons, but fans hoping to break that glass ceiling and reach the AFC Championship game may be feeling a growing sense of concern. 

Stroud's 2023 average for yards per pass attempt of 8.2 dropped to 7 this season. He threw three fewer touchdowns and seven more picks while getting sacked 14 more times. This ultimately led to a 13.8-point drop-off in Passer Rating from last season to now. It's worth noting, though, that he only had Stefon Diggs for eight games this season. We should also keep in mind that the Texans' success last year resulted in them playing a tougher schedule, which meant facing tougher defenses. 

That tougher schedule forced Houston to play six of this season's playoff teams. The Texans lost five of those games. Houston allowed the sixth-fewest passing yards per game to opponents in the regular season, but when they faced a top-shelf offense, they usually lost. They lost 34-7 to Minnesota, 31-2 to the Ravens and 27-19 to a Chiefs team without Hollywood Brown. It seems like even the healthier version of the Texans struggle against playoff teams with an imposing offense, and Chiefs teams led by Mahomes in the playoffs perfectly fit that description.

If the Texans offense fails to improve upon its recent standard, keeping up with KC's playoff offense will be impossible. Prior to putting up 32 on a Los Angeles Chargers team that gifted Houston four interceptions, the Texans didn't score above 23 in their last five regular season games. Patrick Mahomes averages 29.9 points per playoff games over 18 games, and that isn't just the Tyreek Hill era of offense skewing the statistics. In the 10 playoff games since KC traded Hill away, they average 29.4 points per game. Last year's Baltimore Ravens were the only team to hold KC to fewer than 23 points in those 10 games.

It's a shame how much injuries will affect this game, but it gives the Chiefs a major advantage today. A healthy Isiah Pacheco and Hollywood Brown makes the Chiefs offense closer to full-strength than it's been all year. The losses of Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell makes the Texans wide receiver room the most depleted it's been all year. Combine Mahomes' and Travis Kelce's legendary playoff production with Houston's recent mediocrity on offense, and we have the recipe for another Chiefs playoff victory. I'm predicting a lopsided first half followed by some garbage-time scoring from Houston that results in a 27-20 win for Kansas City. I hope you get the chance to enjoy it all with people who love football and love you.

Dramatic Divisional Round Duel Features Faces of Football Facing Off

A game this big feels like at least two Christmases for citizens of Chiefs Kingdom such as myself. Today represents a very important page in the history book of this fine sport. We are only hours away from a face-off between two teams entwined in a memorable rivalry that pits one of the greatest quarterbacks of this era against one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. The spotlight for this divisional round matchup has landed, deservedly so, on Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Their stories will forever be connected, and their efforts in this game will alter the way these greats are perceived by generations of football fans to come.

In his first ever playoff road game, Mahomes is trying to cement his name in the all-time elite category, already surpassing most Hall of Fame QBs' accomplishments. Patrick is only still chasing the heights of legendary names like Montana and Brady. Josh Allen is still trying to get his first playoff win against the same guy who ended his season in back-to-back years prior to the last one. On paper, and for this season in particular, Allen is the better QB. He threw for more yards, more yards per catch and more touchdowns all while running with way more success and taking fewer sacks. Josh ranked third in regular season QBR according to ESPN, while Mahomes finished at #8. 

However, Allen is facing off with the guy on pace to be the greatest playoff quarterback in league history. That obviously should give KC a major advantage, but one position on the field doesn't choose who wins and loses in the playoffs. Buffalo ranks fifth in regular season total yards per game, seventh in rushing yards per game and sixth in total points per game. Their offense converted the highest percentage of third downs in the NFL in the regular season. Buffalo's defense allowed the fourth-fewest points per game in the regular season and compiled the fourth-most sacks. They didn't get here by accident.

Despite Buffalo's impressive finish to the regular season and their Wild Card Weekend victory, I cannot be convinced that they're the most likely victor tonight. The Chiefs have earned my trust that they'll survive moments like this. All the guys on KC's roster who are going to the Hall of Fame deserve all the faith of the citizens of Chiefs Kingdom. I'm predicting a classic playoff thriller and a 27-21 victory for Kansas City.

Can KC Overcome Success-Craving Cleveland?

Our defending Super Bowl champions take the field in mere moments. The Kansas City Chiefs face the Cleveland Browns today, and the winners punch their ticket to the AFC Championship game next weekend. While the Chiefs overcame a laundry list of legit competition to earn the #1 seed, the Browns' obstacles looked less impressive.

Cleveland's schedule was a joke. The 11-5 Browns won only three games against winning football teams in the regular season. Their schedule included victories over each team from the NFC East, a win over the Texans, two wins from the Bengals and one from the one-win Jaguars. The Browns also lost to the New York Jets in Week 16. If Cleveland didn't face so many cupcake opponents this season, they may not have made it this far.

The Chiefs beat the Ravens, Bills, Bucs and Saints in the regular season, which further galvanized the reigning champions. The Browns needed an easy schedule to sneak their way into the playoffs, just like they needed a bad game from the Steelers to sneak into the second round.

It's true that Patrick Mahomes and his offense are guilty of getting off to slow starts this season. However, none of KC's struggles compare to the awful way Pittsburgh started the game last week. The Steelers' first six possessions resulted in three interceptions, two punts and a botched long-snap that turned into a Browns touchdown. Kansas City will not do that today. 

Regardless of who they beat to reach this point, Cleveland matches up well against KC in numerous ways. Baker Mayfield deserves credit for making plays in key moments throughout the season, and he's bringing with him the world's best rushing duo. All throughout the regular season, the Browns' elite run game found success against defenses better-equipped at stopping the run than Kansas City's.

Numbers also indicate that the Browns will have the advantage in the red zone, an area in which KC has been surprisingly ineffective on both sides of the ball. The Chiefs allow the highest percentage of touchdowns scored by opponents in the red zone, and Cleveland ranks third league-wide in red zone touchdown scoring efficiency. Part of the Browns' success has to do with protecting their young quarterback, but at least KC also excels in protecting Patrick. Sacks-per-game statistics show that both defenses are below-average at sacking the QB, and both offensive lines prevent sacks at an elite level.

I expect the Browns to utilize an efficient offense that burns clock and limits the opportunities for Mahomes to scorch that flawed Cleveland secondary. The grand sum of all the nice things listed above about the Browns should be enough to let Cleveland avoid embarrassment this afternoon, but it won't be enough to beat the defending champs. I predict a 34-24 victory for our Chiefs and a mild headache for me after lots of joyful shouting.