Can KC Score Enough Without Pacheco to Defeat Desperate Buffalo Bills?

A desperate Green Bay Packers team defeated the Kansas City Chiefs at Lambeau last week. Another desperate team faces off with the Chiefs at Arrowhead this afternoon. The mercurial Josh Allen and his Buffalo Bills need a win today to avoid a losing record and stay alive in the AFC's crowded Wild Card race. Allen may play like the MVP today, or he could lay a major egg. It's always hard to tell with him.

The Chiefs defense he'll face today should be improved thanks to a major return from injury. Linebacker Nick Bolton will retake his starting job from Drue Tranquill, who's now on the injury report himself with a concussion. Without their two best players at that spot, the Chiefs got cooked by Jordan Love all game long last week. That won't be so easy now that Bolton's back.

Tranquill isn't alone on that list of Chiefs inactive due to injury today. Safety Bryan Cook, offensive tackle Donovan Smith and stud running back Isiah Pacheco are all out this week. That's bad news for a Chiefs offense that already looks unimpressive. The Chiefs have scored 20 points or fewer in half of their games this season. They're also turning the ball over at a rate that makes it difficult to sustain success in this league.

Only five teams in the NFL have thrown more interceptions than KC, and only one team has picked off opposing teams fewer times than KC. At least the Chiefs are forcing fumbles at the fifth-highest rate in the league. Still, that results in a -6 turnover differential, which is the seventh-worst in football. Kansas City won it all last season with a -3 differential, so perhaps that -6 isn't as detrimental as it seems. Either way, losing the turnover battle against strong opposition is a recipe for an L in the NFL.

I think the Chiefs avoid major mistakes and sneak away with an exciting victory today. Solid coverage from KC's secondary should make Allen do something foolish at least once. If the Chiefs win today's turnover battle, they can win the game, and I think they will. I'll predict a 23-20 win for KC. 

KC Visits Snow-Covered Mile-High as Major Vegas Favorites

    The Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos approach this Halloween on two extremely different paths. The Chiefs continue their push to be the best in football, and the Broncos continue their efforts to regain respectability. After beginning the season looking like the worst NFL defense in years, Denver just held the Green Bay Packers to 17 points 10 days after limiting the Chiefs to 19. The Broncos now face the tough task of stopping a Chiefs offense that seems to have just found its stride. Patrick Mahomes posted the highest QBR of his season last week when he threw for 424 yards and four touchdowns on the Los Angeles Chargers' weak secondary.

    Perhaps that won't happen this afternoon, seeing that Adam Schefter just tweeted a Denver forecast for 6-14 inches of snow and temperatures between 13 and 29 degrees Fahrenheit. However, since KC's highly improved defense is without one of its best players today, the nasty weather could turn into an advantage for the Chiefs. Nobody can be sure how KC's defense will function in the long-term without Nick Bolton. Drue Tranquill played well when filling in for Bolton earlier this season, but replacing the 2022 leader in total tackles is never easy. Facing Russell Wilson and the objectively subpar Denver offense, especially in bad weather, should be a relatively easy test for Tranquill. Good thing Chiefs GM Brett Veach brought Drue in this offseason. That's far from the only thing KC's big-picture decision-maker did well in order to set KC up for success this year.

    Veach deserves immense credit for building a top-shelf secondary on a budget. This KC secondary ranks in the top 10 in practically every relevant statistic, and only the veteran safety Justin Reid will make more than $2.8 million this year. That careful money management allowed enough salary cap space for signing impact players like defensive end Charles Omenihu, who just returned last week and immediately made his presence felt. This defense is the best Mahomes has ever played with, and Chiefs Kingdom has Brett Veach's drafting and budgeting skills to thank for that.

    Sure, this is a trap game in many senses, with the desperate Denver team and the crappy weather and all that. Does anyone really think the Chiefs will lose this one, though? The Vegas odds-makers definitely do not. Even past noon on Sunday, KC is a 6.5-point favorite on the road in a snowstorm. I have to agree. I'm predicting a 20-13 victory for the Chiefs and maybe a strong Bloody Mary for me while I try to forget how awful the weather will be in the Midwest for the next half of a year.