Will Tough Texans Test Mahomes' Messed-Up Ankle?

Chiefs Kingdom is concerned about Patrick Mahomes. No, it's not because of his relatively low Passer Rating in 2024. The Kingdom is concerned about Mahomes - the most important athlete in Kansas City sports history - facing a strong Houston Texans pass-rush after an ankle injury. Houston ranks second league-wide in sacks with 45, and prior to last week's game, the Chiefs went through a three-game stretch when they allowed Mahomes to get sacked 13 times. Keeping Mahomes upright and healthy today will be key in keeping the 11-3 Buffalo Bills far away from the #1 seed in the AFC playoff bracket.

A hamstring injury to newly acquired left tackle D.J. Humphries could make this difficult, but I'm not worried about KC overcoming this issue. Last week, the Chiefs responded to this injury by placing all-time great left guard Joe Thuney at the left tackle position. This resulted in exactly zero sacks allowed for Kansas City. Mahomes obviously still dealth with pressure to the point where his ankle got twisted up and hurt, but it doesn't take a major in mathematics to know that zero sacks is the best number of sacks to allow. The rest of the math indicates that KC will have a tough time scoring on this stout Texans defense regardless of Mahomes' ability to overcome this much-talked-about bum ankle.

Houston's defense ranks in the top ten in passing yards and points allowed this season. They rank fourth overall in total yards allowed. Their defense also excels at forcing turnovers. The Texans defense currently ranks second league-wide in interceptions and total takeaways with 19 and 28, respectively. All this is evidence that Kansas City will struggle to score a bunch, but even Texans fans would agree that the Chiefs don't need 30 points on the board to achieve victory today.

C.J. Stroud is experiencing a legitimate sophomore slump. His impressive rookie season Passer Rating of 100.8 has dropped to 89 this season. His future is still bright, but it's a clear and noteworthy drop-off in production. Stroud's passing yards-per-game average is down over 40 yards, he's nearly doubled his interception total, and he's thrown six fewer touchdown passes in this season's 14 games than in the 15 games he played in last season. With both QB's in today's game not living up to their lofty standards of excellence, it may be time for the running backs to shine.

Despite missing key pieces to their rushing attack throughout practically the entire season, the Chiefs have raised their rushing yards-per-game average from 104.9 last season to 112.1. With a healthy Isiah Pacheco and a Kareem Hunt with way more tread on the tires than almost anyone expected, that average can be improved upon over these last three games of the season. For that reason, I'm expecting KC to win a gritty 20-16 game today. KC has a nice two-game cushion over Buffalo in that race for the #1 seed, but the Bills play the Pats twice in three weeks with the Jets in-between. KC's chance to secure the playoffs bye week and also rest their starters in the final week of the regular season will be all the motivation they need to finish the regular season looking strong.

Chiefs Face Unpredictable Falcons After Running Back Roster Shake-Up

The Kansas City Chiefs found a hidden gem in the seventh round of the 2022 draft when they picked running back Isiah Pacheco out of Rutgers. KC planned to have Pacheco as their #1 back and Clyde Edwards-Helaire as their #2 this season. Neither will be active for Sunday Night Football with the Atlanta Falcons tonight. Carson Steele somehow represents the most tenured active Chiefs running back, unless we're counting the returning Kareem Hunt, who was just added to the Chiefs practice squad. While KC searches for its new identity at running back, KC's defense will face off with perhaps the best running back in football.

Atlanta's Bijan Robinson represents the crown jewel of a Falcons offense stacked with young talent. From 2021-2024, The Falcons used first round draft picks on a tight end (Kyle Pitts), a receiver (Drake London), a running back (Bijan) and, oddly, a quarterback (Michael Penix Jr.). It's still too early in the season to know if the Falcons can succeed with this core of skill players plus Kirk Cousins at QB. Cousins posted a 59 Passer Rating with 155 yards, one touchdown pass and two picks in his first game as a Falcon, when T.J Watt and the Steelers seemed to disrupt Atlanta's offense with ease. That same offense looked far more frightening when Cousins posted a 117.2 Rating in a Week 2 win over the Eagles that was ultimately decided by a 4th-quarter two-minute drive for a TD.

The Falcons offense we saw in their win last week could cause problems for a Chiefs defense that's allowing the league's 4th-most yards per game this season. However, I wouldn't bet against KC's star of the secondary Trent McDuffie today - or ever. Through his 100 coverage snaps of the current season, KC's All-Pro CB has allowed just 3 catches for 26 yards. Watching Pittsburgh's T.J Watt cause chaos when he faced the Falcons leads me to believe that Chris Jones and George Karlaftis can help KC accomplish something similar. KC may not hold Kirk and the Falcons to just 10 points like Watt did, but they shouldn't need to.

Whether or not KC finds success running the ball on the Falcons, I expect the Patrick Mahomes Chiefs to score more than the Justin Fields Steelers. I genuinely believe the Chiefs could use a running back roster spot on a french poodle today and still field a better offense than Pittsburgh. Seriously, if I had to choose between my team having Justin Fields and every skill player on the Steelers roster or Patrick Mahomes and a poodle, I'm choosing the poodle package every time. The Falcons defense also experienced an overhaul and infusion of young talent this offseason, and Mahomes' passing attack will find their flaws tonight. I'm predicting a 24-17 win for the Chiefs.

No, Chiefs Kingdom, Cincy Doesn't Suck (Yet, I Think)

Re-watching that Bengals-Pats game from Week 1 was a bizarre viewing experience. Joe Burrow's offense failed to outscore Jacoby Brissett's offense, which isn't a thing I thought I would ever say. This result led many viewers to believe the Bengals are washed, but I'd advise pumping the brakes on that for now. Cincy's slow starts are well-documented, but let's just remind ourselves that they started last year's regular season with a 24-3 loss to Cleveland in which Burrow completed 45.2% of his passes for 82 yards. Zac Taylor has a 1-10 record coaching the Bengals through the first two weeks of the season. That looks ugly on a bigger picture level, but avoiding one or two very avoidable mistakes last week would've changed the current narrative in a major way.

Every team in the NFL lost at least five fumbles last season, except for one. The Cincinnati Bengals only fumbled the ball and lost it twice. When Cincy kicked off this new season with a surprising Week 1 defeat at the hands of the New England Patriots, they lost two fumbles. If the Bengals avoided one or both of those mistakes, that game could've gone in a totally different direction. The Bengals finished last season with the second-lowest total of giveaways in the NFL, so I refuse to presume that they'll cough the ball up a bunch today.

Cincinnati's inability to stop the run, on the other hand, is a consistent problem that dates back to last year. The 126.2 rushing yards per game they allowed last season was the seventh-highest average in football. Last week, the new Patriots bell cow Rhamondre Stevenson ran right through the Bengals defense. Thankfully for Chiefs Kingdom, Stevenson looks an awful lot like a running back with which we are all very familiar. Stevenson and Isiah Pachecho both have career averages for carries per game between 12 and 12.5, rushing yards per game between 56 and 57 and an average yards per carry of 4.6. 

Stevenson and Pacheco are remarkably similar, but the Chiefs' QB is one of the greatest athletes in the history of the universe, and the Pats' QB is currently Jacoby Brissett. This translated into the Pats running the ball far more frequently than KC last week, especially with Stevenson. New England ran the ball 39 times against the Bengals last week, with 25 of those carries going to Stevenson. The Chiefs ran the ball 20 times in total last week. Pacheco's 3.0 yards per carry in his latest performance doesn't look great, but I think the stout Ravens defense played a part in that.

Essentially, Rhamondre is one year older and gets one more six-yard reception per game than Pacheco. It sure as hell wasn't Stevenson's three receptions for six yards that killed Cincy last week, though - it was his 120 rushing yards on 25 carries. Stevenson looked particularly unstoppable when the Pats ended the game with four straight hand-offs to him that resulted in two clock-draining, game-sealing first down conversions. That was enough to give the Pats the win despite Brissett averaging five yards per pass attempt and posting a 75.2 Passer Rating.

I don't expect Cincinnati to play that poorly again, but I obviously expect Patrick Mahomes to do more to help his team than Brissett did last week. That means KC should score more than New England's total of 16 from last week, but that may not be enough to ensure victory. Whether or not Ja'Marr Chase is content right now, he needs to show out against good teams if he wants to keep his market value high. Multiple public expressions of disdain from Chase regarding the back-to-back champs seem to indicate his serious craving for a monster performance against KC. Nobody in Chiefs Kingdom should be shocked or bummed when Cincy scores way more than 10 against KC today, probably thanks to a resurgent Ja'Marr Chase.

Even though I don't consider the Bengals to be a total clown show, I expect our Chiefs to win today. Pacheco should help KC control the clock just like Rhamondre and the Patriots did when facing Cincinnati in Week 1. Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy will still be very, very difficult to all cover at the same time. I'm predicting another exciting chapter in an ever-evolving rivalry and a 27-20 win for the Chiefs.

Can KC Score Enough Without Pacheco to Defeat Desperate Buffalo Bills?

A desperate Green Bay Packers team defeated the Kansas City Chiefs at Lambeau last week. Another desperate team faces off with the Chiefs at Arrowhead this afternoon. The mercurial Josh Allen and his Buffalo Bills need a win today to avoid a losing record and stay alive in the AFC's crowded Wild Card race. Allen may play like the MVP today, or he could lay a major egg. It's always hard to tell with him.

The Chiefs defense he'll face today should be improved thanks to a major return from injury. Linebacker Nick Bolton will retake his starting job from Drue Tranquill, who's now on the injury report himself with a concussion. Without their two best players at that spot, the Chiefs got cooked by Jordan Love all game long last week. That won't be so easy now that Bolton's back.

Tranquill isn't alone on that list of Chiefs inactive due to injury today. Safety Bryan Cook, offensive tackle Donovan Smith and stud running back Isiah Pacheco are all out this week. That's bad news for a Chiefs offense that already looks unimpressive. The Chiefs have scored 20 points or fewer in half of their games this season. They're also turning the ball over at a rate that makes it difficult to sustain success in this league.

Only five teams in the NFL have thrown more interceptions than KC, and only one team has picked off opposing teams fewer times than KC. At least the Chiefs are forcing fumbles at the fifth-highest rate in the league. Still, that results in a -6 turnover differential, which is the seventh-worst in football. Kansas City won it all last season with a -3 differential, so perhaps that -6 isn't as detrimental as it seems. Either way, losing the turnover battle against strong opposition is a recipe for an L in the NFL.

I think the Chiefs avoid major mistakes and sneak away with an exciting victory today. Solid coverage from KC's secondary should make Allen do something foolish at least once. If the Chiefs win today's turnover battle, they can win the game, and I think they will. I'll predict a 23-20 win for KC. 

KC Can Bounce Back By Attacking Raiders' Unproven QB

Chiefs Kingdom is fully aware that the Kansas City Chiefs are the better team on paper for today's game, but how will the Chiefs bounce back from last week's loss to the Philadelphia Eagles? Yes, the Chiefs lost to the Eagles last week, and that still stings, but we have to remember all the things that went wrong in order for KC to lose that game. Travis Kelce fumbled the ball in the red zone. Patrick Mahomes threw a pick in the dang end zone. Justin Watson, Marquez Valdez-Scantling and even Kelce dropped game-altering, catchable balls. After all that, the Chiefs lost to the defending NFC champs by four.

Despite also coming off a loss, the Raiders will be pumped up for this game. The dismissal of former head coach Josh McDaniels seems to have lifted a dark cloud from over the franchise. A win over KC would be monumental for the Raiders and their interim head coach Antonio Pierce. The old saying would propose that Vegas has everything to win while KC has everything to lose. Luckily for Chiefs fans, predicting a victory for Vegas (the football team) against any opponent that isn't a tomato can is something that Vegas (the oddsmakers) would never do.

The theme for the Las Vegas Raiders this season has been simple, if not intriguing: they lost to every team they played that doesn't stink. These Raiders, who are surprisingly still in the playoff hunt past the half-way point of this season, collected W's when facing the Broncos, Packers, Pats, Giants and Jets. None of those teams have winning records. Even the Raiders' weapons that may frighten most other teams in the league will match up poorly against the Chiefs.

Davante Adams still looks like an elite receiver, but the Chiefs excel in handling elite receivers now. The L'Jarius Sneed/Trent McDuffie tandem helped limit A.J. Brown to a single catch for eight yards last week, and I've extensively covered them shutting down other great wide-outs this year. The Raiders' ability to keep their QB upright will be tested by the Chiefs' elite pass-rush today, as well. Vegas' 2.5 sacks allowed per game is almost exactly the league average - they're tied for 17th in that category - and the Chiefs 3.6 sacks per game is the NFL's second-highest.

Another key matchup to watch for will be Isiah Pacheco facing off against the Raiders run defense. Although Vegas held the Dolphins Raheem Mostert mostly in-check last week, they've been one of the league's worst over the course of the regular season. Pacheco ran the ball 19 times for 89 yards against Philly's elite run defense last week. He's only 27 carries and 116 rushing yards away from his total production last season. Another solid performance from Pacheco today could ensure that he surpasses last season's production well before Christmas this year.

Pacheco and KC's defense should be enough to avoid some Cinderella nonsense today. The Raiders starting quarterback and 135th draft pick in the latest draft, Aidan O'Connell, hasn't done enough to instill nearly that much faith in Vegas. I know the Chiefs have had their struggles lately, but we cannot abandon all logic and presume KC would lose a game like this. The Chiefs offense isn't going to fix itself overnight, though. I'm predicting an ugly 24-16 victory for Kansas City.

Seattle's Struggles, KC's Concerns Collide On Cold Christmas Eve

I knew the Seattle Seahawks were 6-3 at one point, and I knew Geno Smith kept showing up next to names like Mahomes and Allen when I looked at the QB stats each week. This made me incorrectly assume Seattle was decent, if not pretty damn good, until looking into it further. The Seahawks have played 14 games so far this season, and somehow, only four of those were against teams who now have winning records. Half of them are the San Francisco 49ers. Only two of their seven victories came against teams who currently have winning records. They've lost four of their last five, including dropping games to the Bucs, Raiders and Panthers. 

Last week, Seattle suffered a predictable Thursday night defeat at the hands of the impressive San Francisco 49ers. The Chiefs, meanwhile, must feel at least a little humbled after back-to-back weeks of sub-par performances against sub-par opponents. KC barely lost to the Bills and Bengals, but they barely avoided losing to the Broncos and Texans. This leaves their identity somewhat blurred at the moment, but the identity of their franchise QB should never be doubted.

Patrick Mahomes' average for passing yards in a game this season is now a full 34 yards higher than #2 in the league, Justin Herbert. Eight other quarterbacks are within 34 yards of Herbert's average. Maybe saying that Bears quarterback Justin Fields is half the quarterback Mahomes is sounds insulting, but it's actually statistically undeniable right now. It seems almost cruel to put these stats together in a sentence, but KC's QB has racked up more than twice as many passing yards per game and touchdown passes as Chicago's QB.

Comparing Fields and Mahomes feels unfair, but comparing KC's mega-star to Geno seems more reasonable. Unfortunately for Smith and the Seahawks, Geno hasn't compiled a QBR above 66 over the last five weeks. Mahomes hasn't compiled a QBR below that over the last eight weeks. That being said, Geno's season numbers still look solid, and he only plays on one side of the football. He deserves only a small portion of the blame for the Seahawks' recent problems.

Seattle scores the seventh-most points per game in the NFL, and their offense didn't exactly disappear over this recent rough patch. Over the last five games, the Seahawks average 22.8 points per game, which falls between the average points per game of the 12th- and 13th-best scoring offenses in football. Seattle's defense deserves scrutiny for the team's inability to win lately. On the season, the Seahawks give up the league's fourth-most points per game. Over the last five games, they've given up an average of 27 points per game. That's worse than any current season total of any team in the NFL. A team cannot expect to win against good opponents with a defense struggling as much as this.

The Chiefs may not seem as trustworthy as they did before stumbling through the last few weeks, but Seattle's recent struggles looked inarguably worse. I know that's a hard thing for Chiefs Kingdom to hear after we almost watched KC lose to the Texans, but a simple glance at the standings proves it. A desperate Seahawks team led by a legit veteran QB could make Chiefs fans sweat for a second this Saturday, but Seattle's inability to limit Mahomes should be their downfall. I'm predicting a 34-24 victory for KC. I know the weather will be nasty, but hey, feeling that cold sucks just as much for the defense as it does for the offense.

Oh, and here's my holiday gift to all of you: Isiah Pacheco averages 80 yards on the ground over his last six games, ever since becoming a bigger factor in the Chiefs offense due to Clyde Edwards-Helaire's injury. Where I'm betting, his over/under for rushing yards this Christmas Eve is at 71. Enjoy your holiday, and more importantly, enjoy your sports and your gambling.

KC Cannot Expect to Wreck Chargers Like They Wrecked Arizona

The Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs started their seasons in very different ways this year. After a slow start, L.A's offense heated up and Justin Herbert spread the ball around effectively against the Las Vegas Raiders. Six different Chargers caught at least three passes in Week 1's 24-19 victory over the new Raiders regime. It wasn't all roses for the Chargers, though. Austin Ekeler averaged under 2.6 yards per carry, which made controlling the clock difficult. L.A's defense also allowed a variety of big plays to Darren Waller, Josh Jacobs and especially Davante Adams, which kept Vegas in a game that should've been decided by far more than a single possession.

Derek Carr had the ball late in the fourth quarter with a chance to score a TD to take the lead, despite throwing three picks and fumbling twice. I expect Herbert's crew to put up more than 24 on a team when the opposing QB compiles a 26.9 QBR. I'd be willing to bet my house that Patrick Mahomes will put up slightly better numbers than this, but I'm only renting. Mahomes didn't throw any picks while racking up 360 passing yards and five TD passes. Isiah Pacheco, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon all averaged at least five yards per carry with at least four carries each. Pacheco, the 7th-round draft pick rookie, led the way with 12 carries for 62 yards on the ground. 

I ultimately think KC loses this game tonight, but I also don't think that sting will linger for too long. I'm predicting the Chiefs as the 2022 Super Bowl winners, and I promise, that was my plan before the dominant 44-21 win in Arizona. Few teams are as complete as KC, and none have the same level of supreme talent that has achieved victory in big moments. With that being said, the Chiefs could easily prove me wrong tonight by wrecking the Chargers, who honestly looked more flawed than I expected in Week 1. I have to balance my optimism for now, though, and this newly rebuilt Chiefs offense isn't going to destroy all teams like they destroyed Arizona last week.

I'm predicting a great game and a Chargers victory tonight, mainly because I have faith in them to look more like the Super Bowl contender most fans expect to see. I also think the Chiefs are the better team when it matters most, and I'd be thrilled to see these teams face off three times this season. This time around, I'm predicting a 30-27 Chargers victory.