Our Kansas City Chiefs are one victory away from making their place in the playoffs official. The visiting Miami Dolphins are kinda-sorta-not-really in the hunt if about 12 things go right and they win out, but on paper, they're an objectively sub-par opponent. The Dolphins rank in the bottom three in the league in yards per game, points per game, giveaways and turnover differential. They hold opponents to 24.4 points per game, which is the league's sixth-highest average. The Dolphins allow the 9th-highest average yardage per play this season, but hey, our Chiefs are #8. If you're looking for something to fear today, KC's defense allowing big plays would be #1. Speaking of numbering things, here are my three quick predictions for what I hope to be our final real regular season game for our Chiefs this season:
1. Those giveaway stats for Miami are just damning. KC has 14 picks this year, and the Dolphins have already given the ball away 26 times. A determined, focused Marcus Peters could feast today. I predict that KC will win the turnover battle by at least two, which will making winning at Arrowhead really tough for the 'Phins.
2. The aforementioned inability to stop teams from scoring is another key to what makes Miami an objectively bad team this season. The obvious choice to pass to Tyreek Hill whenever a cornerback plays press coverage without safety help will bring us more holiday cheer today, even if it's not Hill who gives us that gift himself. He could pull safeties down to double him, which will leave other parts of the field open for KC's other playmakers. I predict a Chiefs passing gain of over 50 yards today from either Hill, Kareem Hunt on a wheel or screen route, or Travis Kelce deep over the middle.
3. The Alex Smith-Matt Nagy duo definitely got this KC offense back on track after Andy Reid seemingly derailed it throughout that pitiful mid-season skid. KCChiefs.com's BJ Kissel pointed out that this new play-calling hierarchy averages 439 yards and 29 points per game, which is third-best and fifth-best in the league over that stretch. KC will be determined to keep their mojo offensively, but justified conservatism may limit their numbers today. This is a terrible time to get any more Chiefs injured, so if KC jumps out to an early lead, we could see some serious clock-milking. This is the correct decision at this time of the season, fantasy leagues be damned. So, I'll predict a 24-16 victory for our Chiefs, with somewhere between 360-440 total yards of offense. Enjoy your holidays, Chiefs Kingdom. We should soon be celebrating Christmas as champions of the AFC West.
Doug LaCerte has a Facebook page and occasionally tweets @DLaC67.
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