Mediocre Mahomes Meets Stout Saints Defense As Greatness Eludes Entire NFL

I'm not sure that there's a single great team in the NFL right now. Our Kansas City Chiefs are 4-0 entering tonight's Monday Night Football match-up with the New Orleans Saints, but we all know KC put some flaws on display and survived some close calls already. Despite the Chiefs' current concerns, they stand out like a leaky lifeboat atop an ocean of "pretty good". The only other undefeated team in football is the Minnesota Vikings, and their current QB Sam Darnold could turn back into a pumpkin any day now. The only other teams with just one loss are the intriguing-but-unproven Washington Commanders with an intriguing-but-unproven rookie QB and the Houston Texans, who have only just snuck by teams like Indy, Chicago and Jacksonville before finally sneaking by a quality opponent in Buffalo yesterday.

The San Francisco 49ers just dropped below .500. The frisky Buccaneers just lost a thriller in overtime against the two-loss Falcons. Who's really good right now? Anybody? The New Orleans Saints started off stronger than anybody, but they, too, have shown their flaws in recent weeks.

The Saints started their year with 91 points scored in their first two games. Then, they were held to 12 by the defensively unimpressive Philadelphia Eagles in Week 3. Their last game was a nail-biter loss to the underrated Falcons, who won 26-24. Their offense still scores more points per game than anyone in the league through nearly five weeks of the regular season, and their defense allows the seventh-fewest points per game. New Orleans held their first three opponents all to under 20 points, and it took multiple field goals from beyond 50 yards last week for the Falcons to surpass that. It's an objectively tough defense, but KC is already familiar with facing tough defenses.

The Chiefs didn't light up the scoreboard in their win over the Chargers last week, but that isn't too surprising. KC played that game without their two best running backs and most of the game without their best wide receiver. They also faced off with arguably the best defense in football. The Chargers allow the fewest points per game in the NFL and the fifth-fewest yards per game. KC scored four more points last week than the Chargers allowed in their first two weeks of the season combined.

New Orleans also isn't facing the cream of the crop when it comes to opposing QBs. After beating Bryce Young, who ranks last in Passer Rating league-wide, they faced Dallas' Dak Prescott, whose Rating ranks 16th. The Eagles' Jalen Hurts is 25th in the NFL in Passer Rating, and Kirk Cousins ranks 15th, which is the highest Rating among any QB the Saints have faced this season. To be fair, Mahomes' oddly average start has left him with the 19th-highest Rating in the league to this point. Neither team should be expected to score a ton tonight, but that's more because of the guys who won't be on the field than the guys who will.

Injuries will significantly affect both teams today. The Chiefs are without Rashee Rice, Isiah Pacheco and Hollywood Brown for an unknown amount of time. The Saints enter tonight's game without Taysom Hill, former Chief Willie Gay Jr. and about half their starting offensive line. Center Shane Lemieux and right guard Cesar Ruiz are both out for tonight's game, and left guard Lucas Patrick is listed as questionable. That could make it difficult for New Orleans to stop Chris Jones and George Karlaftis from pressuring our old friend Derek Carr in critical moments.

Jones already has three sacks and a forced fumble, and I expect those totals to increase tonight. The Saints' inability to stop KC's defense from making Carr uncomfortable will ultimately doom them. I'm predicting a 23-17 victory for the defending champs.

Will Mahomes Magic Lose Luster In Louisiana?

    Kansas City tantalizes viewers with the possibility of seeing an offense capable of being the best of all time, but they undoubtedly have their work cut out for them this afternoon in Louisiana. We know today's game is a potential preview of the Kansas City Chiefs' next chance at a championship, but the Chiefs still has playoff seeding to worry about, and the New Orleans Saints are well-built to exploit KC's few weaknesses. 

    The Chiefs just overcame an elite defense last Sunday, but this week's opponent is a different kind of dominant. The Miami Dolphins defense represented a unique obstacle for the Chiefs. When they forced Patrick Mahomes into throwing two early picks, it represented his worst start to an NFL game in his entire career. After forcing a fumble and another pick in the second half, the Dolphins are now tied with Pittsburgh for the league's most takeaways. The only team on KC's schedule who allows fewer points per game than the Saints are those pesky Dolphins, but Miami's averages for rushing yards, passing yards and total yards allowed are all subpar. The Saints rank fourth or better in all of those categories, and only three teams in football allow fewer points per game. New Orleans excels in the turnover department, too. Only six teams in the NFL have better turnover differentials, and only six teams have more takeaways.

    The weakest part of KC's current roster will square off with one of the strongest parts of this stacked Saints roster. David Onyemata, Cameron Jordan and Trey Hendrickson consistently pressure opposing QB's without the need for extra blitzers. Vereran Chiefs offensive lineman Mike Remmers will miss today's game due to a back injury. Another back injury forced former #1 overall pick Eric Fisher to miss practice time early in the week, and he is currently listed as questionable. This just adds to damage already done to KC"s depleted offensive line. t's such a glaring advantage for the Saints that it almost made me predict a victory for New Orleans today. However, with studly Saints receiver Michael Thomas on the injury report and the Honey Badger on a rampage, I still give the edge to KC.

    Tyrann Mathieu brings fire and poise to this Chiefs defense that gradually galvanized them into one of football's best. That's not to mention the six interception for Mathieu, which is most among all safeties and third-most among everyone in the league. Tyrann's importance cannot be understated and will not be lost on a Chiefs fan who lived through a year of a similarly great Chiefs offense being held back by a Bob Sutton defense. Patrick Mahomes was still a fantastic quarterback that year, but our Chiefs' defensive woes will forever leave me lingering on what-ifs, because KC couldn't win it all without a better defense. The same improvements on defense that led the Chiefs to a championship last season lead me to predict an entertaining 30-27 victory for Kansas City when they visit the Saints today.

Do KC's Injuries Spell Doom In Denver?

An intense divisional rivalry returns to Mile High Stadium tonight, when your 7-3 Kansas City Chiefs take on the 7-3 Denver Broncos. This is the first time KC traveled to The Centennial State since pummeling the Broncos 29-13 over a year ago. Despite being two of the NFL’s best teams, neither team in tonight’s game is getting positive production from their quarterbacks.

Alex Smith hasn't looked like a legit franchise QB since he faced the defensively inept New Orleans Saints in Week 7. In fact, Alex only looked "good" in three, maybe four of KC's 10 games played so far this season. Smith went 17 for 24 against the Saints for 214 yards and 2 TDs without throwing a pick. In the week prior, he beat up the Oakland Raiders in Oakland with a 19/22, 224-yard performance that broke the franchise record for single-game completion percentage. In Week 3, Smith helped KC take advantage of a billion Ryan Fitzpatrick turnovers by completing 25 of 33 passes and earning 237 yards through the air.

We can also include his comeback performance against the San Diego Chargers in Week 1, when Alex threw for 363 yards and two touchdowns to overcome a huge deficit and lead KC to a 1-0 record. That's four games out of 10 in which your franchise QB looked average or better. Even with a few flashes of brilliance, Chiefs fans can't help but wonder if Smith is good enough to ever win them a Super Bowl. No team has won a Super Bowl with a subpar quarterback since- wait, never mind.

It can be done, but winning the Big Game without a good/great QB requires an excellent defense. When Kansas City brings all their defensive starters to the field, that's what they have. Sadly, the Chiefs enter this game without many of their most important defensive pieces today, which makes winning in Denver a tough bet. Jaye Howard, Dee Ford and Steven Nelson are out today, while Marcus Peters, Derrick Johnson and Dontari Poe are still listed as questionable. That’s one or two starters at every level of the defense that won’t be playing today. I tried mightily to sell myself on a Chiefs victory tonight, but it doesn’t seem likely.

In order for KC to win tonight, Smith needs to outperform Trevor Siemian. If not for the Chiefs’ current injury issues, I’d say that’s possible, if not likely. Both quarterbacks are similarly unimpressive at this point of the season; Smith ranks 26^th league-wide in yards-per-game, while Siemian ranks 28^th. Alex seemed to miss his Captain Checkdown moniker after impressing many Chiefs fans through Week 7, because he’s recently returned to that pointless short-pass style in a major way. Only six starting QBs have a higher completion percentage than Smith’s 67.2%, but 22 QBs with at least 200 pass attempts have a higher yard-per-catch average than Alex’s 6.9.

Things could get ugly if KC’s patchwork defense allows Siemian to get comfortable. If Denver’s young QB gets enough time in the pocket to consistently find Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, our Chiefs are in trouble. Thomas and Sanders both have over 50 catches, over 650 yards and average over 12 yards per catch. I have to predict a 20-13 loss for our Chiefs today, but it wouldn’t be too disastrous. I’m always stoked for a game against a division rival, but I’ll be even more excited to see KC face the defending champs with a healthy defense. A loss for our Chiefs today won’t be the end of the world, but a loss for the Broncos could really send them scrambling. That would be delicious, but not absolutely necessary for a strong KC playoff run.

Doug LaCerte definitely still uses Twitter @DLaC67, and kinda still uses Facebook.

Chiefs Reach Week 8 Without Sense of Identity

This season's lack of wins against a “good” football team forces me to wonder about the identity of the 2017 Kansas City Chiefs. KC's a top-ten team according to power rankings from NFL.com, Sports Illustrated, ESPN and CBS Sports, but where's our signature win? I guess the Chiefs' most impressive victory so far was their Week 1 comeback against the last-place, 3-4 San Diego Chargers. That comeback gave both fans and teammates confidence that Alex Smith could elevate this offense when KC needed him most. Sadly, Smith then went on to score 14 points or less in two of KC’s next three games.

The offense has rarely been a total disaster, thanks to Spencer Ware's weekly Pro Bowl-caliber contributions, but rarely has it looked fully operational. KC ranks 19th league-wide in total yards per game, 17th in points per game and 14th in turnover percentage. They epitomize "average offense.” Bright sides include the 3^rd-least-penalized offense in the NFL and a +7 turnover ratio that ranks 4^th, but limiting mistakes alone doesn’t automatically make you great, or even good.

We can’t forget about the Oakland Raiders looking like a cellar dweller against our Chiefs in Week 6, and some may justifiably consider that KC’s greatest accomplishment of this youngish season. The Raiders aren’t half as legit as their 5-2 record would indicate, so I respectfully disagree. Oakland hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record, and they won three of those five games by 3 points or less. At least the Chargers can say they beat the Broncos in Week 6.

KC has four more games coming up against teams currently below .500. Each Sunday presents its own set of challenges, the Chiefs can't sleep on any of these hungry football teams and blah blah blah all those other clichés you’ve heard about "any given Sunday". That being said, KC won't be underdogs again until Week 12 when they travel to Colorado. That means the Chiefs could realistically reach an 8-2 record without defeating a “good” football team.

I wish I could say this upcoming game will give us some answers, but it looks like rinse-and-repeat (-and-repeat) for KC in Week 8. Oakland and New Orleans had several obvious similarities, and we can draw apparent parallels between the Saints and Indianapolis Colts, too. SI's Chris Burke even referred to Indy as "the AFC Saints" in his latest power rankings. So, for the third straight week, KC faces an opponent with a dynamic passing offense and a porous defense. They can still reuse much of the gameplan Andy Reid designed during the Week 5 bye. That alone would make the Chiefs a Vegas favorite this Sunday.

So, what is this team’s identity? When you think of this year’s Chiefs, what comes to mind? I’ll answer my own question with another question: is it a cop-out to just name the most outstanding players on the team? I definitely envision Marcus Peters picking off infuriated QBs while Spencer Ware blasts through opposing defenses, but a team identity rises above individual pieces. Due partly to their lack of a signature win this season, and despite being a top-ten team in the NFL, KC doesn’t have that. Losing is the only thing that can change the Chiefs’ identity until November 27^th, when they face off with the Broncos at Mile High Stadium.

Doug LaCerte tries not to neglect his Twitter account @DLaC67, and he occasionally still uses his Facebook page.

3 Must-See KC Week 7 Matchups

Man, I just can’t whip up the disdain this week for the visiting 2-3 New Orleans Saints like I did for Oakland in Week 6. It’s to be expected I guess, as the Raiders are organically fun-to-hate, while Drew Brees is just, like, a great guy, you know? I still want him picking Arrowhead Stadium turf out of his facemask after each of the 30 painful sacks he suffers today, but you know, a really awesome guy. So, putting aside today’s fundamental matchup of Brees vs. each member of the Chiefs defense, let’s take a closer look at three must-see matchups:

Marcus Peters vs. Brandin Cooks

Brandin Cooks is one of just five guys in the NFL with more than 13 catches and an average yardage per catch over 17. Only two players have a higher average and as many receptions as Cooks' 17.1 yards and 25 catches. I already predicted that the good guys would win today if KC's star cornerback Marcus Peters manages to pick an errant Brees throw to keep the turnover ratio in the Chiefs' favor. However, if any type of receiver can exploit Peters' all-or-nothing playing style, it's a guy like Brandin Cooks (especially when a guy like Drew Brees is throwing the football.)

Alex Smith vs. Cameron Jordan

The Saints enter Week 7 with injured players on every level of their already-ineffective defense. This puts even more pressure on the few New Orleans defenders who consistently contribute, such as linebacker Cameron Jordan. This two-time Pro Bowler and member of the 2015 All-Pro Team needs to slow KC's offensive down without much competent help around him. Slowing down Alex Smith and Company at Arrowhead seems like a tremendously tough task for Jordan or anybody else after last week's remarkable performance from the Chiefs offense.

Alex Smith's incredibly efficient game against the Raiders is still the talk of the town, and many Chiefs fans can't help wondering aloud whether or not he can repeat it, or at least build on it. KC doesn't need him to complete north of 85% of his passes again in order to beat the 2-3 Saints. The Chiefs just need Smith to convert at key moments against the NFL's second-worst defense. Only a top-tier talent like Cameron Jordan should get the chance to stifle Alex's mojo today.

Spencer Ware vs. Craig Robertson

Okay, so the last matchup technically wasn't even a matchup. To be clear, Eric Fisher and the rest of KC's offensive line is responsible for physically matching up against Cam Jordan today, because duh, I know that. Maybe I should call them something other than matchups? I'll find a smoother-sounding version of "3 Must-See Player Duos Who Significantly Influence One Another’s’ Performances" and I’ll get back to you. This last entry is another non-matchup. That's my only point here.

While Ware isn't exactly matched up against Saints middle linebacker Craig Robertson, they'll be seeing each other often today. Robertson leads his team with 33 combined tackles, and Ware (not to mention Jamaal Charles if he's feeling healthy) should get enough up-front blocking to reach the second level of the New Orleans defense. This is where Robertson's ability or inability to wrap up Chiefs in space could decide this game.

KC's simple, obvious key to success today is running the football with conviction and consistency. If the Chiefs run the ball successfully, they can burn the clock with a tie or the lead, thus keeping the opponent's future Hall of Fame QB on the sideline. A consistent running game limits Brees' chances to hurt KC, and also keep the Chiefs defense well-rested. So, to keep that running game going, KC needs third-down conversions on the ground, and nobody has a bigger defensive impact on the success or failure on third downs than a middle linebacker that leads his team in tackles.

I will continue with this “fool’s errand” of making week-to-week NFL predictions by picking the Chiefs to win a 27-24 thriller at home today. As a bonus, I also predict that Chiefs fans will continue to hit up Saints defensive tackle Nick Fairley’s Twitter feed with love after he suddenly lost his mother earlier this week. We can all sympathize with that kind of pain, whether or not it’s something we want to acknowledge within the sanctum of football Sunday.

Doug LaCerte sometimes uses Twitter @DLaC67. He still has a Facebook page, and he loves his momma very much.

3 Ways to Win in Week 7

Our Kansas City Chiefs won comfortably last week against the 4-2 Oakland Raiders, but it won’t be a walk in the park facing Drew Brees’ 2-3 New Orleans Saints in Week 7. Despite the Saints coming to town with a genuinely intimidating offense run by a future Hall of Famer, there are still ways KC can convincingly claim victory at Arrowhead this Sunday. The Chiefs will win…

1-      …if Alex Smith comes anywhere close to the game he had last week. Smith gave us the most efficient performance in franchise history, and he did it without completing four passes to a single Chief. Seven different Chiefs caught two of Smith's 19 completions, and Alex finished the day without a touchdown pass. It was a strange way to be great, but we witnessed a glimpse of greatness from KC's franchise quarterback last Sunday.

2-      …if the altered defensive line dominates the line of scrimmage like they did last week in Oakland. Chris Jones, Jaye Howard and Dontari Poe all stayed on the field for extra snaps because of Allen Bailey’s injury, and the result was a stifled Raiders offense that mustered only 10 points. The increased playing time for these defensive linemen helped KC earn a commanding victory at a critical point in the season.

These extra snaps are particularly noteworthy for Chris Jones, since KC’s next opponent is the league's pass-happiest. Bailey is strong against the run, but scouts say Jones is a better pass-rush option, and my amateur eyeballs agree. The next three teams on KC’s schedule rank first, third and sixth respectively in team passing play percentage, so the loss of Allen Bailey may actually help the Chiefs.

3-      …if KC keeps the turnover ratio in their favor. Yeah that’s cliché, but the Chiefs haven’t won a game this year in which they lost the turnover ratio. Drew Brees, leader of the NFL’s second-greatest offense and its best pass-attack, will undoubtedly look to burn KC’s Marcus Peters on more than one occasion this Sunday. The Chiefs can still win with Peters getting beat on big plays a couple times, but only if he can claim vengeance with a pick, which he’s proven capable of doing more often than not. The guy’s on pace to be the greatest interception threat of all time, so sure, he can occasionally gamble and lose without costing his team the game.

It’s not quite the same feel as Raiders Week, based largely on the joy of hating Oakland and the inability to hate Drew Brees. I’ll do more research on the Aints and get back to you with more hatred before this Sunday’s noon kickoff.

Doug LaCerte sometimes uses Twitter @DLaC67 when it's not being cyber-attacked or whatever, and he still has a Facebook page.

The Good, The Bad and The Awesome from KC's Week 6 Win

This season’s first installment of the decades-old rivalry between the heroic Kansas City Chiefs and the dastardly Oakland Raiders resulted in a comfortable, important victory for the good guys. Let’s take a look at the good, the bad, and the really, really good from yesterday’s satisfying stomping in Oakland:

The Good – Almost everything? Let's get specific and give some love to KC’s offensive linemen, who comfortably controlled the line of scrimmage throughout the game. Their dominance allowed Alex Smith to complete 19 of his 22 pass attempts (a franchise record for completion percentage) and allowed Spencer Ware to run for 131 yards. Only five people on the planet currently have more 2016 yards from scrimmage than Ware. Any team in the NFL would struggle to beat the Chiefs on a day when Ware has room to run and Smith records a 109.1 passer rating.

The Bad – The questions that Chiefs fans must ask through the week paint the picture of a team with tremendous potential but too many concerns to be considered elite. While Pats fans wonder how many touchdowns Tom Brady's about to throw next week, fans in KC are asking more daunting questions. 

We still don't know when Justin Houston will be himself again, and despite a hope-inducing nine carries against the Raiders for Jamaal Charles, nobody knows how often #25 will be able to contribute going forward. We also don't know if the offensive success KC enjoyed against the Raiders can be replicated against a more legitimate defense. As the Star's Terez A. Paylor wisely pointed out, Oakland's passing defense was the NFL's worst heading into yesterday’s game, and their run defense ranked 27th.

Also, Amari Cooper’s 10 catches for 129 yards makes him the first player with over 100 receiving yards against KC since Week 2, which could reignite fears regarding KC’s weakness against elite wide outs.

The Awesome – Marcus Peters’ feast-or-famine style of play continues to work in his favor, and his fifth pick of the season is a perfect example. After Amari Cooper burned Peters on a double move, Marcus trusted his safety help and immediately reacted by deciding to play the ball, confident that Raiders QB Derek Carr couldn't successfully reach Cooper with the pass. His initial failure and immediate decision to gamble resulted in a momentum-shifting interception.

I would be remiss if I didn't also reflect on an all-time great scoring his first touchdown of the season and increasing his workload to nine carries. The next two teams on KC’s schedule – the New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts – rank 25^th and 24^th respectively in rushing yards allowed per game this season. These next two weeks should be a great indicator of how much Jamaal still has in the tank. If KC scouts are to be believed, we will all witness the resurgence of one of NFL history’s greatest talents within the month of October. Now that would be awesome.

Doug LaCerte occasionally remembers that he exists on Twitter @DLaC67, and he still uses his Facebook to find good Raider Hater memes.

Comeback Chaos for AFC West Competitors

Aaaaaand after a little two-year break, we're back! Here's a Week 1 recap for the entire AFC West, but check back soon for more Chiefs-based analysis:

If you live and die with an AFC West team that was expected to be competitive this year, this should feel like a rather lovely week. Football is back, and you just experienced an extremely entertaining comeback victory that earned your team part of a three-way tie for 1^st place in the division. What a wonderful start to the season it was, unless you’re a Chargers fan.

The Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers began the regular season in memorable fashion Thursday night as 25.4 million people watched from home. This one-point comeback win for the defending champs in the season-opening Super Bowl rematch only served as the first course of intense entertainment served up by the AFC West in Week 1.

The Oakland Raiders took their high hopes and highly regarded quarterback David Carr for a long plane ride southeast on Sunday to start their regular season against the New Orleans Saints. Oakland overcame a four-touchdown, 424-yard day from Drew Brees and a 14-point deficit to start their season 1-0. Carr went blow-for-blow with Brees until the very end, when a Raiders touchdown drive, a two-point conversion and a barely-missed 61-yard field goal attempt from New Orleans resulted in a 25-24 comeback victory for Oakland. Viewers of that game probably presumed nothing would top what they just watched, but as that Raiders game wrapped up, Oakland’s greatest rival was mounting another incredible comeback in Kansas City.

OddsShark.com gave the San Diego Chargers 6.5 points in this matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs, but Philip Rivers and Company got off to an early 24-3 lead at Arrowhead. The Chiefs defense then buckled down and allowed just 6 points in the second half, and KC managed to score 17 points in the 4^th quarter's last 10 minutes to send the game to overtime. Alex Smith then led the Chiefs on a 10-play, 75-yard drive culminating in a game-winning, two-yard touchdown run.

The previous comeback wins for their divisional rivals must alter the emotional flavor of this victory for the Chiefs, and vice versa. These hard-fought games ramp up the tension and excitement within the division that will only escalate as the season continues.

Next week, Kansas City travels to Houston where OddsShark.com says they’ll be two-point underdogs against the Houston Texans – the same organization they thrashed and shut out in the AFC Divisional round of last year’s playoffs. Denver will be heavily favored against the 0-1 Indianapolis Colts, and Oakland will reportedly give 4.5 to the 0-1 Atlanta Falcons in the Raiders’ home opener. The Chargers return to San Diego, where they’ll try for a fresh start against the 0-1 Jacksonville Jaguars. Teams from the AFC West won’t face off again until Week 5, when the Chargers travel to Oakland. The Chiefs then travel to Oakland in Week 6 for what could be one of the biggest games in this great rivalry’s recent history.

Doug LaCerte frequently neglects his Facebook page, and he profoundly appreciates each of the 17 people following him on Twitter @DLaC67.