Will Mahomes Magic Lose Luster In Louisiana?

    Kansas City tantalizes viewers with the possibility of seeing an offense capable of being the best of all time, but they undoubtedly have their work cut out for them this afternoon in Louisiana. We know today's game is a potential preview of the Kansas City Chiefs' next chance at a championship, but the Chiefs still has playoff seeding to worry about, and the New Orleans Saints are well-built to exploit KC's few weaknesses. 

    The Chiefs just overcame an elite defense last Sunday, but this week's opponent is a different kind of dominant. The Miami Dolphins defense represented a unique obstacle for the Chiefs. When they forced Patrick Mahomes into throwing two early picks, it represented his worst start to an NFL game in his entire career. After forcing a fumble and another pick in the second half, the Dolphins are now tied with Pittsburgh for the league's most takeaways. The only team on KC's schedule who allows fewer points per game than the Saints are those pesky Dolphins, but Miami's averages for rushing yards, passing yards and total yards allowed are all subpar. The Saints rank fourth or better in all of those categories, and only three teams in football allow fewer points per game. New Orleans excels in the turnover department, too. Only six teams in the NFL have better turnover differentials, and only six teams have more takeaways.

    The weakest part of KC's current roster will square off with one of the strongest parts of this stacked Saints roster. David Onyemata, Cameron Jordan and Trey Hendrickson consistently pressure opposing QB's without the need for extra blitzers. Vereran Chiefs offensive lineman Mike Remmers will miss today's game due to a back injury. Another back injury forced former #1 overall pick Eric Fisher to miss practice time early in the week, and he is currently listed as questionable. This just adds to damage already done to KC"s depleted offensive line. t's such a glaring advantage for the Saints that it almost made me predict a victory for New Orleans today. However, with studly Saints receiver Michael Thomas on the injury report and the Honey Badger on a rampage, I still give the edge to KC.

    Tyrann Mathieu brings fire and poise to this Chiefs defense that gradually galvanized them into one of football's best. That's not to mention the six interception for Mathieu, which is most among all safeties and third-most among everyone in the league. Tyrann's importance cannot be understated and will not be lost on a Chiefs fan who lived through a year of a similarly great Chiefs offense being held back by a Bob Sutton defense. Patrick Mahomes was still a fantastic quarterback that year, but our Chiefs' defensive woes will forever leave me lingering on what-ifs, because KC couldn't win it all without a better defense. The same improvements on defense that led the Chiefs to a championship last season lead me to predict an entertaining 30-27 victory for Kansas City when they visit the Saints today.

3 Must-See KC Week 7 Matchups

Man, I just can’t whip up the disdain this week for the visiting 2-3 New Orleans Saints like I did for Oakland in Week 6. It’s to be expected I guess, as the Raiders are organically fun-to-hate, while Drew Brees is just, like, a great guy, you know? I still want him picking Arrowhead Stadium turf out of his facemask after each of the 30 painful sacks he suffers today, but you know, a really awesome guy. So, putting aside today’s fundamental matchup of Brees vs. each member of the Chiefs defense, let’s take a closer look at three must-see matchups:

Marcus Peters vs. Brandin Cooks

Brandin Cooks is one of just five guys in the NFL with more than 13 catches and an average yardage per catch over 17. Only two players have a higher average and as many receptions as Cooks' 17.1 yards and 25 catches. I already predicted that the good guys would win today if KC's star cornerback Marcus Peters manages to pick an errant Brees throw to keep the turnover ratio in the Chiefs' favor. However, if any type of receiver can exploit Peters' all-or-nothing playing style, it's a guy like Brandin Cooks (especially when a guy like Drew Brees is throwing the football.)

Alex Smith vs. Cameron Jordan

The Saints enter Week 7 with injured players on every level of their already-ineffective defense. This puts even more pressure on the few New Orleans defenders who consistently contribute, such as linebacker Cameron Jordan. This two-time Pro Bowler and member of the 2015 All-Pro Team needs to slow KC's offensive down without much competent help around him. Slowing down Alex Smith and Company at Arrowhead seems like a tremendously tough task for Jordan or anybody else after last week's remarkable performance from the Chiefs offense.

Alex Smith's incredibly efficient game against the Raiders is still the talk of the town, and many Chiefs fans can't help wondering aloud whether or not he can repeat it, or at least build on it. KC doesn't need him to complete north of 85% of his passes again in order to beat the 2-3 Saints. The Chiefs just need Smith to convert at key moments against the NFL's second-worst defense. Only a top-tier talent like Cameron Jordan should get the chance to stifle Alex's mojo today.

Spencer Ware vs. Craig Robertson

Okay, so the last matchup technically wasn't even a matchup. To be clear, Eric Fisher and the rest of KC's offensive line is responsible for physically matching up against Cam Jordan today, because duh, I know that. Maybe I should call them something other than matchups? I'll find a smoother-sounding version of "3 Must-See Player Duos Who Significantly Influence One Another’s’ Performances" and I’ll get back to you. This last entry is another non-matchup. That's my only point here.

While Ware isn't exactly matched up against Saints middle linebacker Craig Robertson, they'll be seeing each other often today. Robertson leads his team with 33 combined tackles, and Ware (not to mention Jamaal Charles if he's feeling healthy) should get enough up-front blocking to reach the second level of the New Orleans defense. This is where Robertson's ability or inability to wrap up Chiefs in space could decide this game.

KC's simple, obvious key to success today is running the football with conviction and consistency. If the Chiefs run the ball successfully, they can burn the clock with a tie or the lead, thus keeping the opponent's future Hall of Fame QB on the sideline. A consistent running game limits Brees' chances to hurt KC, and also keep the Chiefs defense well-rested. So, to keep that running game going, KC needs third-down conversions on the ground, and nobody has a bigger defensive impact on the success or failure on third downs than a middle linebacker that leads his team in tackles.

I will continue with this “fool’s errand” of making week-to-week NFL predictions by picking the Chiefs to win a 27-24 thriller at home today. As a bonus, I also predict that Chiefs fans will continue to hit up Saints defensive tackle Nick Fairley’s Twitter feed with love after he suddenly lost his mother earlier this week. We can all sympathize with that kind of pain, whether or not it’s something we want to acknowledge within the sanctum of football Sunday.

Doug LaCerte sometimes uses Twitter @DLaC67. He still has a Facebook page, and he loves his momma very much.