Skins Could Make it Close in KC

Our Kansas City Chiefs are off to one of their best starts in franchise history, but the Washington Redskins team they'll face tonight looks impressive. Washington dropped their season opener 30-17 against a pesky Philadelphia Eagles team that played KC strong to the very last snap. The Skins then beat a surprisingly solid Los Angeles Rams team 27-20, then crushed the Oakland Raiders 27-10 last week.

In that latest game, Washington looked more-than-worthy of respect. Kirk Cousins completed 25 of his 30 pass attempts for 365 yards and 3 touchdowns, while the Redskins defense held Oakland to only 128 total yards. However, that same defense looked mediocre before last week's game, allowing at least 332 yards to both of their previous opponents.

They'll face some solid competition tonight, but the stats back up KC's legitimacy to this point. The New England Patriots just supplanted KC as the league's highest-ranked offense, all while taking an L against the Carolina Panthers yesterday. KC still holds the #2 spot for highest yards-per-game average, and they're still comfortably leading the league in rushing yards per game.

That should translate into a victory for KC, but this remarkable Redskins defense won't make it easy tonight at Arrowhead. KC's league-leading rushing yards-per-game average is 162, but Washington's rush defense allows an average of just 62.3 yards per game. Only two teams hold their opponents to fewer yards per game this season, and only the Broncos hold teams to a lower average of rushing yards.

A stout defense and a legit QB aren't the only Washington assets worth worrying about in this matchup. Arrowhead Pride's Joel Thorman wrote that Washington's highly-touted new play-maker Chris Thompson currently averages 12.96 yards per touch. Although Thompson doesn't play every down, he can make a huge difference on second and third downs, and he also returns kicks. The Chiefs' ability to stop Thompson from making any game-changing plays could decide the winner of tonight's game.

It could all come down to whether or not KC's "bend-don't-break" style of defense continues to pay off. Only five teams in the NFL allow more yards per game than Kansas City, but only seven teams hold their opponents to fewer points per game. Your Chiefs are currently the best football team in the universe because they're hitting home runs on offense and stopping them on defense. I hope you like segues, because that leads me to my three quick predictions for tonight's game:

1. Each team will break off a gain of at least 50 yards. Kirk Cousins and Alex Smith both look very comfortable throwing downfield right now. The emergence of our guy Kareem Hunt and Washington's Chris Thompson adds factors on both sides of the ball that can change games instantly. If not for some clutch KC defense so far this year, I'd say this game could turn into a shootout.

2. Vegas puts the over/under for tonight's game at 48.5. I'm wrong every damn time I pick overs, and both these defenses are solid, albeit in very different ways, so I'm picking the under tonight. I'm once again putting faith in KC's defense to keep making big stops in the red-zone, because if they don't, this prediction will probably go badly for me.

3. If all goes well, we'll see another balanced attack with Hunt and Smith that helps KC continue their winning ways. The Chiefs will win a close, exciting game, 24-23, and stand alone as the only 4-0 team in football.

Doug LaCerte neglects his Facebook slightly more than he neglects Twitter @DLaC67.

A New Reason To Hate

Thanks to a Denver defeat on Thursday, the rest of the regular season just became a hell of a lot more interesting for Chiefs Kingdom. KC is again technically tied with the Broncos atop the AFC West, but they'll need to win out and witness another Denver loss to claim that sexy #2 seed. That makes this afternoon's game in Oakland far more relevant than most Raider Haters imagined it would be entering the week. After a borderline-pitiful trouncing of the Redskins, KC should be coming into The Pit or The Black Zone or whatever with plenty of confidence on the offensive side of the ball. Don't tell me what they call it. I don't care.

This Chiefs offense has finally started to find their rhythm in the last few games. Regardless of what many will say about a lethargic effort from Washington last week, KC has been playing their best offense of the year, ever since that exciting but ultimately infuriating loss to San Diego. It's no surprise that Jamaal Charles' best rushing performance of the year coincided with the Chiefs' highest scoring game. Thanks to some relentless early-game scoring, the Redskins' chance of winning dropped below 1% in less than 20 minutes of game-time (according to the game's Win Probability graph.)

The defense obviously did their part, holding a listless Redskins offense to 10 points and 257 yards and sacking RGIII five times. Last week's game and this weeks game, alike should serve as confidence boosters for the Chiefs D, as well as further proof that they can succeed without Justin Houston – against subpar opponents, at least. The real test will come when Houston is healthy and facing off against Andrew Luck and the Colts, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. For now, there is still plenty of friendly, good-hearted competition to be had with those highly-respected and well-renowned Oakland Raiders.

With another loss last week, Oakland guaranteed themselves another losing season and a full decade of being losers. The Raiders haven't recorded a winning season since 2002, which is a stat that makes any jokes about them just seem cheap at this point. That's not like kicking a man while he's down, it's like kicking a crippled, syphilitic old woman after she falls down the stairs. So, I refuse to stoop to that level. No talk about their embarrassing QB situation, not from me. No mentioning their loss earlier this season against the same team KC just dominated last week, no sir or madam. I'm better than that.

Here are my five predictions for today's game.

1- Most KC fans are confident in their defense by this point, especially when Houston returns, so it seems clear that the offense's improvement will largely determine their chance of success in the playoffs. Only 8 teams give up more points per game than Oakland, which means this game shouldn't be much of a test. Nonetheless, the Chiefs need to avoid playing down to their competition and dominate this game. Expect KC to extend their 3-game streak of scoring 30+ points.

2- Not to be outdone by Knile Davis' franchise record-tying return, Quintin Demps brought one back in Washington to give KC the most touchdowns from kickoff and punt returns of anyone in the league. While they may not get a chance to return another one this afternoon (if the Raiders are smart), they should still dominate on special teams. Look for KC to average at least 8 more yards per return than Oakland.

3- The surprisingly decent Matt McGloin will get his fifth start today. Expect him to complete at least 58% of his passes, but also expect a KC defender, maybe Marcus Cooper, to bait him into an interception.

4- While McGloin has been mildly successful, Oakland's offensive line still struggles to keep him safe in the pocket. The Raider's O-Line has allowed the 5th-most sacks in the NFL. Expect Tamba to get at least one of at least 5 sacks on the Raider rookie QB today.

5- It would only make sense, in a frustratingly poetic kind of way, for the Chiefs to lose today. Regardless of their record and overall hopelessness, the Raiders are going to want this game bad. Beating their playoff-bound rivals in Oakland is probably the last thing the Raiders have to play for this season. However, that Thursday loss from Denver should be enough to keep KC playing hard and staying focused against inferior competition. Chiefs win, 30-17, and hope for that #2 seed stays alive for at least another week.

Doug LaCerte runs this blog and writes for Rant Sports. Follow him on Twitter @DLaC67, send him your distasteful Raiders jokes on Facebook and add him to your network on Google.

Welcoming the Return of Winning Ways in Washington

Okay Chiefs fans, time to move on from all that Denver drama. Believe it or not, the regular season continues this Sunday, and the Washington Redskins have no sympathy for KC's recent woes. The last three games were all hard-fought losses that shouldn't shake KC's personality as a football team overall. A loss to the struggling Redskins could send the Chiefs on a desperate search for their lost identity.

Washington struggles defensively and through the air on offense, but their rushing game is at the top of the league. A combination of RGIII and Alfred Morris makes Washington the #1 ranked running team in the NFL. It's a poetic sign of the times that this elite rushing attack has earned the Skins a 3-9 record and a firm grasp of last place in their division. Griffin has thrown 11 picks this year, and an uninspiring offensive line has allowed him to be sacked 15 times in the last 3 games.

While the QB deserves much of the blame since he will always earn the credit for success, but RGIII shouldn't be the only Redskin held accountable. AdvancedNFLStats.com ranks only one Redskin receiver within the top 75 (Pierre Garcon at #20) in order of Win Probability Added. For the sake of comparison, three Chiefs receivers rank in the top 75, but all of them (Avery, Bowe and McCluster, in that order) rank below Garcon. With both teams boasting strong running games and iffy pass attacks, viewers of tomorrow's game can expect the clock to keep running and this game to move very quickly.

Here are my five predictions for Sunday's game in Washington:

1- Alfred Morris ranks 6^th league-wide in Win Probability Added by a running back. Look for Morris to gain at least 80 yards and Griffin to make up the rest to make it five consecutive games in which KC gave up at least 100 yards on the ground. This should keep the game closer, and lower-scoring, than most would expect.

2- Another matchup that should keep this game competitive is Redskin linebackers vs. Chief offensive tackles. Branden Albert is injured for Sunday's game, leaving Donald Stephenson to fill his place on the line. Stephenson has impressed many in the past few weeks as a fill-in, but the Redskins will do whatever they can to utilize Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan in this game. Although I'm expecting a win, I'm also expecting at least two sacks allowed by KC's offensive line.

3- The Washington defense ranks 23^rd in yards allowed per game and gives up the 2^nd most points per game in the league. Despite some pressure on Alex Smith, expect the Chiefs to score 30+ points for the third straight week.

4- An angry secondary with a bruised ego should bounce back against a less imposing QB this week. Expect RGIII to give up at least one pick and gain less than 250 yards through the air.

5- After limping into the first face-off with Denver after two ugly games against subpar opponents, the Chiefs were sent reeling on a three-game losing streak. This Sunday, the opposite effect should take place. After standing strong against two powerful teams in three weeks, KC should come into tomorrow's game with plenty of confidence and a huge chip on their shoulder. An emerging Chiefs offense should be able to outscore the struggling Skins. KC finally returns to their winning ways with a 30-20 win in Washington.

Oh, and if you're wondering, KC needs to win out and see Peyton lose twice against the Titans, Chargers, Texans and Raiders in order to reclaim the #2 seed. While the odds aren't in KC's favor, a Denver loss to Tennessee tomorrow could make the rest of the regular season waaay more interesting for fans in the Kingdom. Stay tuned to CBS after tomorrow's noon-time Chiefs game to see if the Broncos can choke enough to keep KC's hopes for a home playoff game alive.

UPDATE: Actually, if you're a SureWest subscriber like myself, you won't be seeing the Broncos game. Instead, CBS will be showing the Deer Valley Celebrity Skifest. Fantastic.