Will Tough Texans Test Mahomes' Messed-Up Ankle?

Chiefs Kingdom is concerned about Patrick Mahomes. No, it's not because of his relatively low Passer Rating in 2024. The Kingdom is concerned about Mahomes - the most important athlete in Kansas City sports history - facing a strong Houston Texans pass-rush after an ankle injury. Houston ranks second league-wide in sacks with 45, and prior to last week's game, the Chiefs went through a three-game stretch when they allowed Mahomes to get sacked 13 times. Keeping Mahomes upright and healthy today will be key in keeping the 11-3 Buffalo Bills far away from the #1 seed in the AFC playoff bracket.

A hamstring injury to newly acquired left tackle D.J. Humphries could make this difficult, but I'm not worried about KC overcoming this issue. Last week, the Chiefs responded to this injury by placing all-time great left guard Joe Thuney at the left tackle position. This resulted in exactly zero sacks allowed for Kansas City. Mahomes obviously still dealth with pressure to the point where his ankle got twisted up and hurt, but it doesn't take a major in mathematics to know that zero sacks is the best number of sacks to allow. The rest of the math indicates that KC will have a tough time scoring on this stout Texans defense regardless of Mahomes' ability to overcome this much-talked-about bum ankle.

Houston's defense ranks in the top ten in passing yards and points allowed this season. They rank fourth overall in total yards allowed. Their defense also excels at forcing turnovers. The Texans defense currently ranks second league-wide in interceptions and total takeaways with 19 and 28, respectively. All this is evidence that Kansas City will struggle to score a bunch, but even Texans fans would agree that the Chiefs don't need 30 points on the board to achieve victory today.

C.J. Stroud is experiencing a legitimate sophomore slump. His impressive rookie season Passer Rating of 100.8 has dropped to 89 this season. His future is still bright, but it's a clear and noteworthy drop-off in production. Stroud's passing yards-per-game average is down over 40 yards, he's nearly doubled his interception total, and he's thrown six fewer touchdown passes in this season's 14 games than in the 15 games he played in last season. With both QB's in today's game not living up to their lofty standards of excellence, it may be time for the running backs to shine.

Despite missing key pieces to their rushing attack throughout practically the entire season, the Chiefs have raised their rushing yards-per-game average from 104.9 last season to 112.1. With a healthy Isiah Pacheco and a Kareem Hunt with way more tread on the tires than almost anyone expected, that average can be improved upon over these last three games of the season. For that reason, I'm expecting KC to win a gritty 20-16 game today. KC has a nice two-game cushion over Buffalo in that race for the #1 seed, but the Bills play the Pats twice in three weeks with the Jets in-between. KC's chance to secure the playoffs bye week and also rest their starters in the final week of the regular season will be all the motivation they need to finish the regular season looking strong.

KC Should Make Quick Work of Unreliable Raiders

The 10-1 Kansas City Chiefs are back at Arrowhead to face the 2-9 Las Vegas Raiders in a rare Friday afternoon game. Chiefs fans are hopeful their team keeps hold of the #1 seed in the playoff bracket, while Raiders fans are presumably hopeful that a top-five pick in next year's draft could make them less miserable. Kansas City just added D.J. Humphries for some much-needed help at left tackle, while the Raiders just lost their starting QB Gardner Minshew to a season-ending collarbone fracture. KC already beat the Raiders less than three weeks ago when Vegas had a healthy Minshew. There's little reason for hope for the Raiders today, or any time soon.

Nobody runs the ball for fewer yards per game than Las Vegas this season. That leads to struggles with moving the sticks and controlling the clock, as is evident by the Raiders ranking 25th league-wide in average time of possession. The Chiefs' effective rushing attack paired with strong coaching has led to them ranking fourth in average time of possession this season. I suspect that the Chiefs wish to dispose of the Raiders with minimal drama and risk to player health, so they should bleed clock when they have the lead. With an over/under of 42 points in today's game, I'd undoubtedly lean towards betting the under. 

Anyone predicting a win for the Raiders today is just a troll or a clickbait creator. Patrick Mahomes' career Passer Rating of 108.5 against the Raiders suggests that he enjoys beating up on the noisy little brother of the division. Vegas' rankings in points scored and points allowed have dropped off since last season. They're the worst team the Chiefs will face all year aside from the Panthers, but KC didn't exactly destroy Carolina last week, so perhaps today's game won't be as lopsided as the 13.5-point spread would indicate. For the record, Vegas lost to those same Panthers by two touchdowns in Week 3. I'm predicting a 27-17 victory for the Chiefs that feels like more of a blowout than the final score indicates.