Chiefs Face Unpredictable Falcons After Running Back Roster Shake-Up

The Kansas City Chiefs found a hidden gem in the seventh round of the 2022 draft when they picked running back Isiah Pacheco out of Rutgers. KC planned to have Pacheco as their #1 back and Clyde Edwards-Helaire as their #2 this season. Neither will be active for Sunday Night Football with the Atlanta Falcons tonight. Carson Steele somehow represents the most tenured active Chiefs running back, unless we're counting the returning Kareem Hunt, who was just added to the Chiefs practice squad. While KC searches for its new identity at running back, KC's defense will face off with perhaps the best running back in football.

Atlanta's Bijan Robinson represents the crown jewel of a Falcons offense stacked with young talent. From 2021-2024, The Falcons used first round draft picks on a tight end (Kyle Pitts), a receiver (Drake London), a running back (Bijan) and, oddly, a quarterback (Michael Penix Jr.). It's still too early in the season to know if the Falcons can succeed with this core of skill players plus Kirk Cousins at QB. Cousins posted a 59 Passer Rating with 155 yards, one touchdown pass and two picks in his first game as a Falcon, when T.J Watt and the Steelers seemed to disrupt Atlanta's offense with ease. That same offense looked far more frightening when Cousins posted a 117.2 Rating in a Week 2 win over the Eagles that was ultimately decided by a 4th-quarter two-minute drive for a TD.

The Falcons offense we saw in their win last week could cause problems for a Chiefs defense that's allowing the league's 4th-most yards per game this season. However, I wouldn't bet against KC's star of the secondary Trent McDuffie today - or ever. Through his 100 coverage snaps of the current season, KC's All-Pro CB has allowed just 3 catches for 26 yards. Watching Pittsburgh's T.J Watt cause chaos when he faced the Falcons leads me to believe that Chris Jones and George Karlaftis can help KC accomplish something similar. KC may not hold Kirk and the Falcons to just 10 points like Watt did, but they shouldn't need to.

Whether or not KC finds success running the ball on the Falcons, I expect the Patrick Mahomes Chiefs to score more than the Justin Fields Steelers. I genuinely believe the Chiefs could use a running back roster spot on a french poodle today and still field a better offense than Pittsburgh. Seriously, if I had to choose between my team having Justin Fields and every skill player on the Steelers roster or Patrick Mahomes and a poodle, I'm choosing the poodle package every time. The Falcons defense also experienced an overhaul and infusion of young talent this offseason, and Mahomes' passing attack will find their flaws tonight. I'm predicting a 24-17 win for the Chiefs.

Skins Could Make it Close in KC

Our Kansas City Chiefs are off to one of their best starts in franchise history, but the Washington Redskins team they'll face tonight looks impressive. Washington dropped their season opener 30-17 against a pesky Philadelphia Eagles team that played KC strong to the very last snap. The Skins then beat a surprisingly solid Los Angeles Rams team 27-20, then crushed the Oakland Raiders 27-10 last week.

In that latest game, Washington looked more-than-worthy of respect. Kirk Cousins completed 25 of his 30 pass attempts for 365 yards and 3 touchdowns, while the Redskins defense held Oakland to only 128 total yards. However, that same defense looked mediocre before last week's game, allowing at least 332 yards to both of their previous opponents.

They'll face some solid competition tonight, but the stats back up KC's legitimacy to this point. The New England Patriots just supplanted KC as the league's highest-ranked offense, all while taking an L against the Carolina Panthers yesterday. KC still holds the #2 spot for highest yards-per-game average, and they're still comfortably leading the league in rushing yards per game.

That should translate into a victory for KC, but this remarkable Redskins defense won't make it easy tonight at Arrowhead. KC's league-leading rushing yards-per-game average is 162, but Washington's rush defense allows an average of just 62.3 yards per game. Only two teams hold their opponents to fewer yards per game this season, and only the Broncos hold teams to a lower average of rushing yards.

A stout defense and a legit QB aren't the only Washington assets worth worrying about in this matchup. Arrowhead Pride's Joel Thorman wrote that Washington's highly-touted new play-maker Chris Thompson currently averages 12.96 yards per touch. Although Thompson doesn't play every down, he can make a huge difference on second and third downs, and he also returns kicks. The Chiefs' ability to stop Thompson from making any game-changing plays could decide the winner of tonight's game.

It could all come down to whether or not KC's "bend-don't-break" style of defense continues to pay off. Only five teams in the NFL allow more yards per game than Kansas City, but only seven teams hold their opponents to fewer points per game. Your Chiefs are currently the best football team in the universe because they're hitting home runs on offense and stopping them on defense. I hope you like segues, because that leads me to my three quick predictions for tonight's game:

1. Each team will break off a gain of at least 50 yards. Kirk Cousins and Alex Smith both look very comfortable throwing downfield right now. The emergence of our guy Kareem Hunt and Washington's Chris Thompson adds factors on both sides of the ball that can change games instantly. If not for some clutch KC defense so far this year, I'd say this game could turn into a shootout.

2. Vegas puts the over/under for tonight's game at 48.5. I'm wrong every damn time I pick overs, and both these defenses are solid, albeit in very different ways, so I'm picking the under tonight. I'm once again putting faith in KC's defense to keep making big stops in the red-zone, because if they don't, this prediction will probably go badly for me.

3. If all goes well, we'll see another balanced attack with Hunt and Smith that helps KC continue their winning ways. The Chiefs will win a close, exciting game, 24-23, and stand alone as the only 4-0 team in football.

Doug LaCerte neglects his Facebook slightly more than he neglects Twitter @DLaC67.