Could Pittsburgh Present Playoff Perils to KC?

Playoff football returns to Arrowhead tonight. The Kansas City Chiefs are huge favorites this time around as they host the Pittsburgh Steelers. What could give the 14-point underdogs a chance against the Chiefs in this lopsided, do-or-die battle?

Football fans everywhere likely agree that the Steelers won't have the advantage at QB tonight. In fact, a player who will one day become another one of Pittsburgh's representatives in Canton may be the player holding the Steelers back the most right now.

Pittsburgh struggled their way through an easy schedule and snuck into the playoffs as Ben Roethlisberger finished the regular season with an Adjusted QBR of 35.8. That ranks 25th among all qualified players, putting Big Ben behind guys like Jalen Hurts, Daniel Jones and Taylor Heinicke. The only player to play more than 14 games and finish with a lower QBR was rookie Jaguar Trevor Lawrence. Big Ben had the full support of one of the most respected teams in football history, and Trevor Lawrence is a Jacksonville Jaguar. 

Prior to Pittsburgh's overtime victory over the Ravens last week, Roethlisberger compiled QBR's no better than 14.0 in three consecutive games. What's actually impressive is the fact that the Steelers only lost one of those three games - the one in which they faced the Kansas City Chiefs. Kansas City was the only team to score more than 14 points against Pittsburgh during that stretch. It's probably no coincidence that the Chiefs won while keeping T.J. Watt sack-less in that game, as opposed to him racking up four sacks against Cleveland and one and a half sacks against Tennessee. 

Watt led the league in sacks, tying the all-time record of 22.5. Thankfully for worrisome fans belonging to Chiefs Kingdom, KC's offensive line finished third league-wide in percentage of sacks allowed per play, behind only the Bills and Bucs. The line that Kansas City built from scratch this off-season finished its first year ranked fifth in Pro Football Focus' power rankings. If health permits, the Chiefs should prove with this ensuing playoff run that worrying about the offensive line represents only residue of past failures.

Speaking of past failures, turning the ball over is another way KC could turn this opportunity into another memorable disaster like we witnessed in the pre-Mahomes regimes. KC is 11th in the NFL in turnover differential at +4, and Pittsburgh is tied at 13th with +2. This ranking for the Chiefs felt like a disappointment when I saw that stat, especially when I also saw that KC's 29 takeaways ties them for fifth-best in the league. It's also worth noting that the top-ten list for total takeaways is comprised of eight playoff teams, the Indianapolis Colts and the Miami Dolphins. It certainly seems like a high volume of takeaways takes teams to the playoffs or gets them damn close.

Kansas City's problem with their turnover differential came from their surprisingly high volume of giveaways; 25 ties them with the Tennessee Titans for the ninth-most in the NFL. No team with more giveaways reached the playoffs, and each team on the top-five list for most giveaways this season lost at least 11 games. Pittsburgh's 22 takeaways this season ties them at 14th in the league, meaning that the Chiefs will face an opponent whose ability to take the ball away is essentially league-average. The Chiefs have played five teams with higher takeaway totals this season - the Cowboys, Bills, Packers, Giants and Titans - and Kansas City won three of those five games.

The gulf between the prior success rates of the teams facing off today makes it impossible for me to give the Steelers any hope. I'm predicting a comfortable 31-17 victory for the Chiefs. The "nothing to lose" mentality only gets a team so far when they run into an opponent playing objectively better football.

Faulty Defense and Fantastic Offense Face Tough Week 2 Test in Pittsburgh

The Kansas City Chiefs once again started their season with a head-turning victory, but experts still say the Chiefs are heavy underdogs against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 2. KC has the Chargers' number, but it seems the Steelers have KC's number. However, Pro Football Focus listed the Chargers' secondary as the NFL's second-best in their preseason rankings. Pittsburgh came in at #23. Could the Kingdom's new leader Patrick Mahomes continue his success by exorcising some demons in the Steel City? I may break something in joy if that happens.

Tomorrow's game is another huge test for KC's flawed secondary, which allowed 424 yards and benefited from numerous dropped Philip Rivers passes that could've significantly changed the game last week. Big Ben Roethlisberger threw three picks and fumbled twice, but still threw for 335 yards and scored 21 points on the Cleveland Browns in his start to the season. Perhaps the deciding factor in tomorrow's game will be if Chiefs linebacker Dee Ford provides enough pressure opposite Justin Houston to make Ben uncomfortable and force some turnovers.

This is the beginning of something great for Chiefs Kingdom. I'm still not convinced that this will translate to any playoff success this season, though. Remember all the well-thrown passes dropped by Chargers last week. Remember the several times when the KC secondary looked completely lost. Remember how dangerous JuJu Smith-Schuster and Antonio Brown are together. Remember that Mahomes will throw more picks than Alex Smith, and remember that KC's leading turnover producer is now a Los Angeles Ram. I only ask you to remember all this so we as fans can temper our expectations while this Chiefs offense keeps doing things that are truly unforgettable.

Here are my three predictions for tomorrow's game in Pittsburgh:

1. Patrick Mahomes continues to impress the football world while throwing for more yards and fewer TDs than in Week 1. Pittsburgh's defense certainly isn't the stalwart unit of years prior, but Mike Tomlin will still have his team hyped to break hearts in KC yet again. Also, Mahomes is due to turn the ball over, which should result in less scoring and possibly more passing yards.

2. It's time for Travis Kelce to get into the mix with an offense considered to be the league's best. I think he and Patty Cake connect at least four times for 75+ yards.

3. Chiefs defensive coordinator Bob Sutton must have nightmares about Antonio Brown. The Steelers' best wide-out averages 16 yards per catch or more the last four times he faced off with the Chiefs. I don't expect that to stop without Eric Berry, Marcus Peters or Le'Veon Bell on the field tomorrow. Our man Mahomes should keep this one close, but I predict triple-digit receiving yards for Brown and a 34-31 victory for Pittsburgh. I know, boooooo. I hope I'm wrong, too.

Doug LaCerte writes about KC sports and uses his Twitter and Facebook almost exclusively to plug his articles. Shameless.

Can Desperate Steelers Squad Keep it Close in KC?

I expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to make this afternoon's game at Arrowhead interesting. I can only imagine that this week of practice in Pittsburgh was intense, and Chiefs-Steelers is flourishing into a serious rivalry. Big Ben Roethlisberger, not to mention many of his key targets, are looking for a bounce-back after an ugly loss in Pittsburgh last week. The Steelers will be desperate to right the ship and stay above .500, and desperate teams are dangerous. Mike Tomlin will undoubtedly have his guys jacked up for this. That's why I'm predicting KC to win a somewhat-close game instead of completely blowing the Steelers out.

Pittsburgh comes into Arrowhead with enough emotional fuel to keep things entertaining, but comparing their flaws to KC's strengths provides plenty of evidence of the Chiefs' superiority.

The Steelers' two ugly losses share a key element; when Pittsburgh's opponent kept the score close early on, thereby avoiding pass-heavy play-calling, those teams' ability to run the ball killed the Steelers. Pittsburgh was just crushed at Heinz Field at the hands of Blake Bortles and the Jags last week. Big Ben's five interceptions really turned that game sideways, but Jacksonville's consistent success running the ball is what ultimately earned them the W. Leonard Fournette gashed Pittsburgh for 181 yards last week, and he's not the only back to help his squad beat the Steelers this season.

In Week 3, the Chicago Bears' duo of Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen combined for 35 carries and 218 yards as Chicago handed Pittsburgh a disappointing 23-17 defeat. In games when Pittsburgh gained an early lead, opposing QB's were forced to throw into a still-solid Steelers secondary. When that happens, Pittsburgh still looks legit, but when opposing teams get a chance to run the ball, Pittsburgh looks average-at-best.

This makes the game-plan for the Chiefs seem oddly simple. Of course, play-calling in an NFL game is never simple. The Steelers expect a heavy dose of Kareem Hunt, and since they've yet to prove they can stop someone like him, that's what they'll get. Thing is, Pittsburgh spent all week focusing on how to stop the run, as this is clearly their biggest concern for all the aforementioned reasons. Fortunately for fans in Chiefs Kingdom, Andy Reid will be ready with some tricky short passes when the Steelers defense is focused on Hunt, which should lead to a solid, balanced game for KC's offense. That impressive offense plays a big part in my predictions this week:

1. Pittsburgh holds opponents to 139.6 passing yards per game this season, which is the league's lowest average by a full 20 yards. Current MVP front-runner Alex Smith is deftly commanding the league's 8th-best pass-attack and 2nd-best overall offense, so despite my expectations for a big day for Kareem Hunt, I also predict that Smith will gain at least 175 yards through the air.

2. Let's just make my expectations for Hunt to dominate into an official prediction: Kareem will have his fifth game with at least 100 rushing yards this season, and he'll break off a long run for at least 35 yards. This should lead KC to a 30-20 victory.

3. Marcus Peters isn't all that bad, right? I predict that he'll bounce back with a strong performance at and least one pick today, which will help us all get over this "attitude problem" stuff quickly. Don't forget that this guy who people seem to despise right now is the same guy that everyone wanted to hug when he ripped the football out of Kelvin Benjamin's monstrous hands and stole a game for us in Carolina last season. Peters didn't break any laws or hurt anyone as far as I know, so as far as I care, I just want to see him shut down half the field and ball-hawk his way to more pick-sixes. Don't let his apparent attitude problems stop you from enjoying his awesomeness to the fullest, this week and every week.

Doug LaCerte still has a Facebook page for some reason, and he still uses Twitter @DLaC67.

3 Important Lists For Preseason Week 3

Here we go, Chiefs fans. The wait is kinda over. Today we can forget about training camp, team-building exercises and boring preseason press conferences. There's plenty to talk about and catch up on here, but for now we're keeping it (comparatively) simple. Today, we're talking about preseason Week 3- the first week of football that truly feels like football.

Week 3 of the preseason marks the official moment when actual play is important enough that yelling at TV screens becomes socially appropriate for the next five months or so. To celebrate that important milestone, I have 3 lists of 3 for Week 3. My goal today is to curb enthusiasm, temper negativity and point out important things for fans to keep their eyes on today, all with one oddly-structured welcome-back post.

3 Things to Watch For In Week 3

1- Dave Toub's effect on the special teams play. This post from Mellinger, and the hilarious accompanying video, showcases the positive change being made so far, but many fans will surely continue to underrate this aspect of the game. Probably for life. And it's a shame, considering we have some exciting tools to plug into a proven system that's already shown its ability to change a game completely. No one knows for sure if Devin Hester's success was a byproduct of his own talents or the Dave Toub system. Obviously, it must be a mixture of the two, but who's to say that Dexter McCluster doesn't have all the traits to be the next big deal on special teams? After witnessing the majority of an up-and-down, historically streaky baseball season, the length of the NFL season feels almost unjustly short to me. Every one of those 16 games is huge, and that makes every kick return for a touchdown either a devastating blow or an unequivocal advantage.

2- AJ Jenkin's ability, or lack thereof, to become a factor quickly. This goes for anybody else trying to gain a prominent role in this offense. Wanna guess who has the most catches on the roster? That would be rookie running back Knile Davis, with 7 receptions for 49 yards. To really get excited about this offense, fans need to see guys like Donnie Avery (1 catch for 6 yards this preseason) and AJ Jenkins (never caught an NFL pass) to step up. Especially after losing some heigth with the Baldwin/Jenkins trade, Reid will look to counter this lack of size with a small army of shorter-than-average skill players. Those little guys will make a big difference in Kansas City's 2013 playoff hopes.

3- The secondary's effectiveness in containing another quality QB. Roethlisberger comes into tonight's game with a 3-1 career record against the Chiefs. In those games, he's completed 70.9% of his 110 pass attempts. Limiting Big Ben to a lower percentage would be a welcome sign of improvement for this new and, hopefully, improved secondary. The only other starting QB with significant playing time against this Chiefs defense is Drew Brees. He completed 7 of 10 for 65 yards, but it took the impressive accuracy that you'd expect from Brees and few else to make the Chiefs' secondary look small.

3 Things to Remember When the Chiefs Look Great

1- It's the preseason. Everything is still vanilla on either side of the ball, and within that context athleticism rules the day. Don't be overly-wooed by good play from returning Chiefs. Let's not forget that last year's team posted the worst record in franchise history with the same 5 Pro Bowlers that will take the field today. Tight coverage from Brandon Flowers and jaw-dropping plays from Jamaal Charles are nothing new to Kansas City, and by themselves they won't save the Chiefs from another disappointing season. I know Derrick Johnson is great, I know Tamba's a beast, and I dedicated a whole post to the unheralded greatness of Dustin Colquitt. If KC wants to change their losing ways, fans need to see productivity from someone new. I'm looking at you, Alex Smith.

2- Keep in mind when this offense looks impressive and efficient that it's still limited. Don't let anything fool you into thinking Alex Smith has an arm capable of spreading the field. He just doesn't. This is going to bring consternation from the fan-base, and probably some mostly-undeserved flack to Andy Reid's hairy ear-holes. The third WR spot is also a topic of legitimate concern. The team website's unofficial depth chart lists Junior Hemingway and AJ Jenkins as starters at the 3^rd WR position. These two have a combined total of exactly zero catches in the NFL.

3- Think Sean Smith looks great? He does, until he gets burnt, which happens frequently. His ball-hawking often resulted in big gains for the opposing team during his years with Miami. In four seasons, his gambling yielded only 5 picks in 63 games, which averages out to 0.079 interceptions per game, or 0.98 per season. I know it's early to be skeptical, but getting snickered at by Dolphins fans is a bad omen. I though I could skip my preseason ritual of stocking up on blood pressure medication, especially when Javier Arenas left town (one last dig on that guy, check.) I just hope this new, talented-but-dangerous cornerback doesn't send me running back to the drugstore in jittery rage this year.

3 Things to Remember When The Chiefs Look Awful

1- It's the preseason. The success of the 2013 Chiefs will depend greatly on the effectiveness of a completely new coaching regime. Everything, as I've mentioned, is still vanilla, and if KC finds themselves in the playoff hunt this year, it will be because better coaching created a better product on the field. This aforementioned vanilla-ness (vanillality?) limits the potency of a good coaching staff. Andy Reid will win games this year with X's and O's, but preseason week 3 is largely referred to as the season's dress rehearsal. Winning the chess match is how Andy Reid makes a living, but in this game, all his chess pieces are stuck in the same, predictable spots.

Oh hey, do me a favor and try saying “vanillality” out loud. You can thank me later.

2- Even if the Chiefs lose every preseason game, isn't that better than using preseason as a glorified 2-hour workout? I know it's been a while, but damn. Seriously. How awful was that? More to my point, how awful was that coaching staff in general? Remember Todd Haley sabotaging his own team with 4 consecutive starts by Tyler “The Tricycle” Palko? Yep, he's gone (and he's actually on the other sideline, coaching the Steelers offense.) Speaking of past woes....

3- Just remember last year, and compare the hope we have now to the disgust we had just months ago. Remember Scott Pioli's big, sweaty head? Gone. Remember Romeo Crennel's complete lack of explanation or understanding as to why his team was so dreadfully bad? Never would I imagine that I'd be so happy to substitute “lovable black Santa Claus” with “man who oh-so-closely resembles a walrus.” Remember Matt Cassel? I don't have a smart comment for that one, I just want you to close your eyes and think deeply about Matt Cassel starting at quarterback for your favorite team.

Yeah. The queasiness you're feeling proves my point better than words ever could. There's so much to look forward to, and not only because we can embrace not sucking. We have reasons to believe this is the foundation for a playoff team, if not this year, then soon. If I haven't murdered the word “hope” through overusing it on this blog, I'm sure that I'll finish the job this season. Welcome back, and thanks for reading.