Even With Flaws, KC's Defense Is Elite

Your Kansas City Chiefs just earned their spot in the driver’s seat to a first-round bye in the playoffs, but which aspect of this team will be remembered for getting them there? After seeing your Chiefs bailed out time after time by a turnover or a crucial 3^rd-down stop, is it really a question? The stats could dissuade you at first glance, but the defense in Chiefs Kingdom is elite.

Don’t let the league’s 27^th-ranked yards allowed per game fool you; only seven teams allow fewer points per game than Kansas City does, and six of those teams are playoff-bound. Despite not forcing any turnovers last Thursday against the Oakland Raiders, KC is still tied for the most takeaways in the NFL this season. KC's efforts against some of the league's best QBs prove that the defense stays stout when it's needed most.

Drew Brees currently commands the highest-ranked offense in football, but the Chiefs held the Saints to 6.5 points less than their current average. KC held Andrew Luck and Indianapolis to 11.2 yards below their current average. The Chiefs also held Matt Ryan and his outstanding Falcons offense to 12 points in the second half to sneak away with an overtime win in Atlanta. KC's defense limited Cam Newton, the reigning offensive MVP, and they humbled the former MVP front-runner Derek Carr by handing him an embarrassing loss at a crucial moment in the season. Twice.

Our Chiefs already played the teams who rank first, second, third and fourth in average points per game. The New England Patriots are #5. How's that for foreshadowing?

We can’t look too far ahead, however, as the Tennessee Titans could threaten our chance for playoff football at Arrowhead Stadium this year. It will continue to be painfully cold in KC tomorrow, and the Chiefs’ inability to stop the run makes Tennessee an opponent that should be taken seriously.

The Titans rank 3^rd league-wide in rushing yards per game, while only five NFL teams allow more rushing yards per game than Kansas City. Only one of the teams worse at stopping the run than KC – the Denver Broncos – has probable odds to reach the playoffs. Tennessee is the best running offense the Chiefs will face this regular season, making Andy Reid and Company’s extra days of game-planning even more beneficial.

The mega-cliché of the “bend-don’t-break” defense will be tested on icy Arrowhead turf tomorrow, but our 2016 Chiefs consistently pass tough tests. It’s gonna be ugly, again, but I believe KC has the big-play potential – even in nasty conditions – to sneak away with another victory. I predict yet another gritty, hard-fought victory for KC. The good guys will win, 20-16, and we’ll all feel a little bit warmer here in Chiefs Kingdom. I hope.

Doug LaCerte occasionally remembers he has a Twitter @DLaC67, and he still has Facebook.

3 Must-See KC Week 7 Matchups

Man, I just can’t whip up the disdain this week for the visiting 2-3 New Orleans Saints like I did for Oakland in Week 6. It’s to be expected I guess, as the Raiders are organically fun-to-hate, while Drew Brees is just, like, a great guy, you know? I still want him picking Arrowhead Stadium turf out of his facemask after each of the 30 painful sacks he suffers today, but you know, a really awesome guy. So, putting aside today’s fundamental matchup of Brees vs. each member of the Chiefs defense, let’s take a closer look at three must-see matchups:

Marcus Peters vs. Brandin Cooks

Brandin Cooks is one of just five guys in the NFL with more than 13 catches and an average yardage per catch over 17. Only two players have a higher average and as many receptions as Cooks' 17.1 yards and 25 catches. I already predicted that the good guys would win today if KC's star cornerback Marcus Peters manages to pick an errant Brees throw to keep the turnover ratio in the Chiefs' favor. However, if any type of receiver can exploit Peters' all-or-nothing playing style, it's a guy like Brandin Cooks (especially when a guy like Drew Brees is throwing the football.)

Alex Smith vs. Cameron Jordan

The Saints enter Week 7 with injured players on every level of their already-ineffective defense. This puts even more pressure on the few New Orleans defenders who consistently contribute, such as linebacker Cameron Jordan. This two-time Pro Bowler and member of the 2015 All-Pro Team needs to slow KC's offensive down without much competent help around him. Slowing down Alex Smith and Company at Arrowhead seems like a tremendously tough task for Jordan or anybody else after last week's remarkable performance from the Chiefs offense.

Alex Smith's incredibly efficient game against the Raiders is still the talk of the town, and many Chiefs fans can't help wondering aloud whether or not he can repeat it, or at least build on it. KC doesn't need him to complete north of 85% of his passes again in order to beat the 2-3 Saints. The Chiefs just need Smith to convert at key moments against the NFL's second-worst defense. Only a top-tier talent like Cameron Jordan should get the chance to stifle Alex's mojo today.

Spencer Ware vs. Craig Robertson

Okay, so the last matchup technically wasn't even a matchup. To be clear, Eric Fisher and the rest of KC's offensive line is responsible for physically matching up against Cam Jordan today, because duh, I know that. Maybe I should call them something other than matchups? I'll find a smoother-sounding version of "3 Must-See Player Duos Who Significantly Influence One Another’s’ Performances" and I’ll get back to you. This last entry is another non-matchup. That's my only point here.

While Ware isn't exactly matched up against Saints middle linebacker Craig Robertson, they'll be seeing each other often today. Robertson leads his team with 33 combined tackles, and Ware (not to mention Jamaal Charles if he's feeling healthy) should get enough up-front blocking to reach the second level of the New Orleans defense. This is where Robertson's ability or inability to wrap up Chiefs in space could decide this game.

KC's simple, obvious key to success today is running the football with conviction and consistency. If the Chiefs run the ball successfully, they can burn the clock with a tie or the lead, thus keeping the opponent's future Hall of Fame QB on the sideline. A consistent running game limits Brees' chances to hurt KC, and also keep the Chiefs defense well-rested. So, to keep that running game going, KC needs third-down conversions on the ground, and nobody has a bigger defensive impact on the success or failure on third downs than a middle linebacker that leads his team in tackles.

I will continue with this “fool’s errand” of making week-to-week NFL predictions by picking the Chiefs to win a 27-24 thriller at home today. As a bonus, I also predict that Chiefs fans will continue to hit up Saints defensive tackle Nick Fairley’s Twitter feed with love after he suddenly lost his mother earlier this week. We can all sympathize with that kind of pain, whether or not it’s something we want to acknowledge within the sanctum of football Sunday.

Doug LaCerte sometimes uses Twitter @DLaC67. He still has a Facebook page, and he loves his momma very much.

3 Ways to Win in Week 7

Our Kansas City Chiefs won comfortably last week against the 4-2 Oakland Raiders, but it won’t be a walk in the park facing Drew Brees’ 2-3 New Orleans Saints in Week 7. Despite the Saints coming to town with a genuinely intimidating offense run by a future Hall of Famer, there are still ways KC can convincingly claim victory at Arrowhead this Sunday. The Chiefs will win…

1-      …if Alex Smith comes anywhere close to the game he had last week. Smith gave us the most efficient performance in franchise history, and he did it without completing four passes to a single Chief. Seven different Chiefs caught two of Smith's 19 completions, and Alex finished the day without a touchdown pass. It was a strange way to be great, but we witnessed a glimpse of greatness from KC's franchise quarterback last Sunday.

2-      …if the altered defensive line dominates the line of scrimmage like they did last week in Oakland. Chris Jones, Jaye Howard and Dontari Poe all stayed on the field for extra snaps because of Allen Bailey’s injury, and the result was a stifled Raiders offense that mustered only 10 points. The increased playing time for these defensive linemen helped KC earn a commanding victory at a critical point in the season.

These extra snaps are particularly noteworthy for Chris Jones, since KC’s next opponent is the league's pass-happiest. Bailey is strong against the run, but scouts say Jones is a better pass-rush option, and my amateur eyeballs agree. The next three teams on KC’s schedule rank first, third and sixth respectively in team passing play percentage, so the loss of Allen Bailey may actually help the Chiefs.

3-      …if KC keeps the turnover ratio in their favor. Yeah that’s cliché, but the Chiefs haven’t won a game this year in which they lost the turnover ratio. Drew Brees, leader of the NFL’s second-greatest offense and its best pass-attack, will undoubtedly look to burn KC’s Marcus Peters on more than one occasion this Sunday. The Chiefs can still win with Peters getting beat on big plays a couple times, but only if he can claim vengeance with a pick, which he’s proven capable of doing more often than not. The guy’s on pace to be the greatest interception threat of all time, so sure, he can occasionally gamble and lose without costing his team the game.

It’s not quite the same feel as Raiders Week, based largely on the joy of hating Oakland and the inability to hate Drew Brees. I’ll do more research on the Aints and get back to you with more hatred before this Sunday’s noon kickoff.

Doug LaCerte sometimes uses Twitter @DLaC67 when it's not being cyber-attacked or whatever, and he still has a Facebook page.

Comeback Chaos for AFC West Competitors

Aaaaaand after a little two-year break, we're back! Here's a Week 1 recap for the entire AFC West, but check back soon for more Chiefs-based analysis:

If you live and die with an AFC West team that was expected to be competitive this year, this should feel like a rather lovely week. Football is back, and you just experienced an extremely entertaining comeback victory that earned your team part of a three-way tie for 1^st place in the division. What a wonderful start to the season it was, unless you’re a Chargers fan.

The Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers began the regular season in memorable fashion Thursday night as 25.4 million people watched from home. This one-point comeback win for the defending champs in the season-opening Super Bowl rematch only served as the first course of intense entertainment served up by the AFC West in Week 1.

The Oakland Raiders took their high hopes and highly regarded quarterback David Carr for a long plane ride southeast on Sunday to start their regular season against the New Orleans Saints. Oakland overcame a four-touchdown, 424-yard day from Drew Brees and a 14-point deficit to start their season 1-0. Carr went blow-for-blow with Brees until the very end, when a Raiders touchdown drive, a two-point conversion and a barely-missed 61-yard field goal attempt from New Orleans resulted in a 25-24 comeback victory for Oakland. Viewers of that game probably presumed nothing would top what they just watched, but as that Raiders game wrapped up, Oakland’s greatest rival was mounting another incredible comeback in Kansas City.

OddsShark.com gave the San Diego Chargers 6.5 points in this matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs, but Philip Rivers and Company got off to an early 24-3 lead at Arrowhead. The Chiefs defense then buckled down and allowed just 6 points in the second half, and KC managed to score 17 points in the 4^th quarter's last 10 minutes to send the game to overtime. Alex Smith then led the Chiefs on a 10-play, 75-yard drive culminating in a game-winning, two-yard touchdown run.

The previous comeback wins for their divisional rivals must alter the emotional flavor of this victory for the Chiefs, and vice versa. These hard-fought games ramp up the tension and excitement within the division that will only escalate as the season continues.

Next week, Kansas City travels to Houston where OddsShark.com says they’ll be two-point underdogs against the Houston Texans – the same organization they thrashed and shut out in the AFC Divisional round of last year’s playoffs. Denver will be heavily favored against the 0-1 Indianapolis Colts, and Oakland will reportedly give 4.5 to the 0-1 Atlanta Falcons in the Raiders’ home opener. The Chargers return to San Diego, where they’ll try for a fresh start against the 0-1 Jacksonville Jaguars. Teams from the AFC West won’t face off again until Week 5, when the Chargers travel to Oakland. The Chiefs then travel to Oakland in Week 6 for what could be one of the biggest games in this great rivalry’s recent history.

Doug LaCerte frequently neglects his Facebook page, and he profoundly appreciates each of the 17 people following him on Twitter @DLaC67.