Could Pittsburgh Present Playoff Perils to KC?

Playoff football returns to Arrowhead tonight. The Kansas City Chiefs are huge favorites this time around as they host the Pittsburgh Steelers. What could give the 14-point underdogs a chance against the Chiefs in this lopsided, do-or-die battle?

Football fans everywhere likely agree that the Steelers won't have the advantage at QB tonight. In fact, a player who will one day become another one of Pittsburgh's representatives in Canton may be the player holding the Steelers back the most right now.

Pittsburgh struggled their way through an easy schedule and snuck into the playoffs as Ben Roethlisberger finished the regular season with an Adjusted QBR of 35.8. That ranks 25th among all qualified players, putting Big Ben behind guys like Jalen Hurts, Daniel Jones and Taylor Heinicke. The only player to play more than 14 games and finish with a lower QBR was rookie Jaguar Trevor Lawrence. Big Ben had the full support of one of the most respected teams in football history, and Trevor Lawrence is a Jacksonville Jaguar. 

Prior to Pittsburgh's overtime victory over the Ravens last week, Roethlisberger compiled QBR's no better than 14.0 in three consecutive games. What's actually impressive is the fact that the Steelers only lost one of those three games - the one in which they faced the Kansas City Chiefs. Kansas City was the only team to score more than 14 points against Pittsburgh during that stretch. It's probably no coincidence that the Chiefs won while keeping T.J. Watt sack-less in that game, as opposed to him racking up four sacks against Cleveland and one and a half sacks against Tennessee. 

Watt led the league in sacks, tying the all-time record of 22.5. Thankfully for worrisome fans belonging to Chiefs Kingdom, KC's offensive line finished third league-wide in percentage of sacks allowed per play, behind only the Bills and Bucs. The line that Kansas City built from scratch this off-season finished its first year ranked fifth in Pro Football Focus' power rankings. If health permits, the Chiefs should prove with this ensuing playoff run that worrying about the offensive line represents only residue of past failures.

Speaking of past failures, turning the ball over is another way KC could turn this opportunity into another memorable disaster like we witnessed in the pre-Mahomes regimes. KC is 11th in the NFL in turnover differential at +4, and Pittsburgh is tied at 13th with +2. This ranking for the Chiefs felt like a disappointment when I saw that stat, especially when I also saw that KC's 29 takeaways ties them for fifth-best in the league. It's also worth noting that the top-ten list for total takeaways is comprised of eight playoff teams, the Indianapolis Colts and the Miami Dolphins. It certainly seems like a high volume of takeaways takes teams to the playoffs or gets them damn close.

Kansas City's problem with their turnover differential came from their surprisingly high volume of giveaways; 25 ties them with the Tennessee Titans for the ninth-most in the NFL. No team with more giveaways reached the playoffs, and each team on the top-five list for most giveaways this season lost at least 11 games. Pittsburgh's 22 takeaways this season ties them at 14th in the league, meaning that the Chiefs will face an opponent whose ability to take the ball away is essentially league-average. The Chiefs have played five teams with higher takeaway totals this season - the Cowboys, Bills, Packers, Giants and Titans - and Kansas City won three of those five games.

The gulf between the prior success rates of the teams facing off today makes it impossible for me to give the Steelers any hope. I'm predicting a comfortable 31-17 victory for the Chiefs. The "nothing to lose" mentality only gets a team so far when they run into an opponent playing objectively better football.

History Is Made Today at Arrowhead

It's playoff time at Arrowhead Stadium, which means it's time to make history. This playoff run is a defining moment in the careers of many men, not to mention a critical point in the overall story of this football franchise. The Chiefs' backstory in home playoff games is the stuff of legend, but it's a very sad legend. Kansas City was the first franchise in NFL history to lose seven consecutive playoff games. A win today would be just the third home playoff victory in franchise history. Will KC continue to struggle at home when it matters most, or can the Chiefs take care of business against an injured, inferior Titans team? I'll sort it out through my three quick predictions:

1. Don't let OddsShark.com's spread consensus of 8.5 fool you into thinking this will be easy for KC. The Titans are the second-most effective play-action offense in football. No team in the league runs the ball behind their left tackle with more success than Tennessee. Their defense is notably stout against the run and includes multiple playmakers in the NFL Top 100. Their defense holds opponents to the league's 8th-lowest 3rd down conversion percentage, while KC ranks 23rd in this category.

Tennessee also runs a methodical offense that limits penalties and runs the ball consistently. That means we'll see the clock running a lot, especially if the Chiefs commit to running the ball with Kareem Hunt against the NFL's 4th-best rush defense. I predict that KC will not cover the spread, and the total points won't reach OddsShark's consensus over/under of 44.5. That being said, our Chiefs have a clear advantage today, and the undeniable reasons why are the focus of my other predictions.

2. Only five teams threw more interceptions than the Titans this year. Only four players in the NFL have more interceptions than Marcus Peters, and the Chiefs defense ranks 9th overall in interceptions. That being said, one of those players with more picks than Peters is Tennessee's Kevin Byard, so Alex Smith will battle Byard mentally all day long. Chiefs reporter B.J Kissel pointed out that Marcus Mariota is tied with DeShone Kizer for the most interceptions thrown in road games this year, with 11 in total. He also pointed out that the Chiefs won all nine games in which they won the turnover battle.

I'm just keeping it simple here, because the simple factor of turnovers means everything in the NFL. I predict that the Chiefs will continue this trend today by winning the turnover battle and the game, thanks in large part to at least one caused by Marcus Peters. Whether it's a strip or a pick is all up to football destiny.

3. Fan perception of Alex Smith's time as a Chiefs will be greatly shaped by his performance today. Going deep into the playoffs solidifies Smith's tenure here as something overwhelmingly positive. A defeat to an objectively inferior Titans team would leave many fans wondering how this generation of talent in KC would've fared under the command of a different QB. To have such a balanced attack with playmakers at all three levels of the offense is a luxury few NFL teams can afford. If Smith doesn't push this talented team deep into the playoffs, or at least past a Tennessee team that allowed 22 more points than it scored through the regular season, many in Chiefs Kingdom will think of Smith as the game manager that limited KC's potential for greatness. That is not fair, but that is the reality of a starting QB in the NFL, especially in a city so starved for that greatness.

Another man clearly performing at the top of his field and still being constantly questioned is the man running the show on the sidelines. This playoff run is the culmination of Andy Reid's 19th-straight season as a head coach in this league. Praise for Reid around the league is nearly unanimous, but he is the same guy who gave up play-calling duties in an admittedly successful attempt to bounce back from a then-horrifying midseason slump. That slump ended less than four weeks ago, and it is nearly the exact roster facing the Wild Card Titans today at Arrowhead.

This is not a playoff tune-up game. This is not a chip-in or a lay-up or any other stupid saying for an automatic win. The Titans want to bash Kansas City's proverbial teeth in and continue the decades-long streak of sadness that seems to curse the Kingdom during the playoffs. I thankfully believe that Andy and Alex will come through in the clutch for us today.

Smith should be well-prepared for this huge moment in his career, and it will show against a Titans defense that ranks 25th in passing yards allowed this year. Alex has thrown for 324 yards against Houston, who ranks 24th in that category. He also averaged 305 passing yards through his two meetings with the Raiders, who are #26.

Andy is going to have this squad ready to win today, and that will result in success during crucial moments for KC's offense. I predict at least 305 yards through the air for Alex Smith, as KC clears a path to the divisional round by taking care of the Titans in a tight one, 23-17.

Doug LaCerte has a Facebook page and occasionally does stuff on Twitter @DLaC67.