How KC Can Claim the AFC West in Cali Today

Our Kansas City Chiefs hope to wrap up the regular season with a win over the cellar-dwelling Sandy Eggo Chargers this afternoon. On most weeks, I would think of the Chargers as "New England Light", since they're a very similar, but less-effective team. Today, they're without their top-ten running back Melvin Gordon, but it’s still hard to tell how the Chargers will respond to losing against the Cleveland Browns last week. I can't tell you if this 5-10 squad will get mad and play well or get sad and pack it in today. This could be the Chargers’ final game in San Diego after all, so they could still be psyched into playing this game like it’s important to them.

KC’s ineffectiveness against the run would’ve been key in this article if not for Gordon’s hip injury, but the lack of their starter makes the Chargers’ rushing attack less-than-scary. Gordon’s contributions gave him the 10^th-highest rushing yards total in the NFL and the 8^th-ranked yards per game average. Even with him healthy, San Diego ranked 27^th in rushing yards per game. The Chargers can only successfully run the ball in a certain context, and that context is handing the ball to Melvin Gordon.

Philip Rivers helped the Bolts become the 6^th-ranked passing offense in the league, but KC has already beaten the #9 Raiders (twice), #7 Colts, #3 Falcons and #1 Saints. Rivers can still have a tremendous game and be beaten, and none of his receiving options are outstanding right now. Tyrell Williams leads the team with 989 receiving yards, which ranks 17^th among all NFL receiving options. Dontrelle Inman, the #2 threat on San Diego’s roster, ranks 50^th league-wide.

Despite KC having a clear advantage, today’s game is still tough to predict. The Chiefs' 31 total takeaways make for the league's highest total, but San Diego's 27 takeaways ranks 4th. If KC is on the wrong side of the turnover ratio today, the Chargers can shorten the game with short passes, limiting KC's chances on offense and ultimately threatening the Kingdom's chances at a division title this year. Despite the Chiefs being forced to play in the terrifying atmosphere and abhorrent weather of San Diego, I think the Kingdom rings in the New Year with a 30-23 victory. We’ll dig deeper into playoff drama once we know who and when KC plays next.

Doug LaCerte sometimes uses Twitter @DLaC67, and he still has Facebook.

Do KC's Injuries Spell Doom In Denver?

An intense divisional rivalry returns to Mile High Stadium tonight, when your 7-3 Kansas City Chiefs take on the 7-3 Denver Broncos. This is the first time KC traveled to The Centennial State since pummeling the Broncos 29-13 over a year ago. Despite being two of the NFL’s best teams, neither team in tonight’s game is getting positive production from their quarterbacks.

Alex Smith hasn't looked like a legit franchise QB since he faced the defensively inept New Orleans Saints in Week 7. In fact, Alex only looked "good" in three, maybe four of KC's 10 games played so far this season. Smith went 17 for 24 against the Saints for 214 yards and 2 TDs without throwing a pick. In the week prior, he beat up the Oakland Raiders in Oakland with a 19/22, 224-yard performance that broke the franchise record for single-game completion percentage. In Week 3, Smith helped KC take advantage of a billion Ryan Fitzpatrick turnovers by completing 25 of 33 passes and earning 237 yards through the air.

We can also include his comeback performance against the San Diego Chargers in Week 1, when Alex threw for 363 yards and two touchdowns to overcome a huge deficit and lead KC to a 1-0 record. That's four games out of 10 in which your franchise QB looked average or better. Even with a few flashes of brilliance, Chiefs fans can't help but wonder if Smith is good enough to ever win them a Super Bowl. No team has won a Super Bowl with a subpar quarterback since- wait, never mind.

It can be done, but winning the Big Game without a good/great QB requires an excellent defense. When Kansas City brings all their defensive starters to the field, that's what they have. Sadly, the Chiefs enter this game without many of their most important defensive pieces today, which makes winning in Denver a tough bet. Jaye Howard, Dee Ford and Steven Nelson are out today, while Marcus Peters, Derrick Johnson and Dontari Poe are still listed as questionable. That’s one or two starters at every level of the defense that won’t be playing today. I tried mightily to sell myself on a Chiefs victory tonight, but it doesn’t seem likely.

In order for KC to win tonight, Smith needs to outperform Trevor Siemian. If not for the Chiefs’ current injury issues, I’d say that’s possible, if not likely. Both quarterbacks are similarly unimpressive at this point of the season; Smith ranks 26^th league-wide in yards-per-game, while Siemian ranks 28^th. Alex seemed to miss his Captain Checkdown moniker after impressing many Chiefs fans through Week 7, because he’s recently returned to that pointless short-pass style in a major way. Only six starting QBs have a higher completion percentage than Smith’s 67.2%, but 22 QBs with at least 200 pass attempts have a higher yard-per-catch average than Alex’s 6.9.

Things could get ugly if KC’s patchwork defense allows Siemian to get comfortable. If Denver’s young QB gets enough time in the pocket to consistently find Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, our Chiefs are in trouble. Thomas and Sanders both have over 50 catches, over 650 yards and average over 12 yards per catch. I have to predict a 20-13 loss for our Chiefs today, but it wouldn’t be too disastrous. I’m always stoked for a game against a division rival, but I’ll be even more excited to see KC face the defending champs with a healthy defense. A loss for our Chiefs today won’t be the end of the world, but a loss for the Broncos could really send them scrambling. That would be delicious, but not absolutely necessary for a strong KC playoff run.

Doug LaCerte definitely still uses Twitter @DLaC67, and kinda still uses Facebook.

Chiefs Reach Week 8 Without Sense of Identity

This season's lack of wins against a “good” football team forces me to wonder about the identity of the 2017 Kansas City Chiefs. KC's a top-ten team according to power rankings from NFL.com, Sports Illustrated, ESPN and CBS Sports, but where's our signature win? I guess the Chiefs' most impressive victory so far was their Week 1 comeback against the last-place, 3-4 San Diego Chargers. That comeback gave both fans and teammates confidence that Alex Smith could elevate this offense when KC needed him most. Sadly, Smith then went on to score 14 points or less in two of KC’s next three games.

The offense has rarely been a total disaster, thanks to Spencer Ware's weekly Pro Bowl-caliber contributions, but rarely has it looked fully operational. KC ranks 19th league-wide in total yards per game, 17th in points per game and 14th in turnover percentage. They epitomize "average offense.” Bright sides include the 3^rd-least-penalized offense in the NFL and a +7 turnover ratio that ranks 4^th, but limiting mistakes alone doesn’t automatically make you great, or even good.

We can’t forget about the Oakland Raiders looking like a cellar dweller against our Chiefs in Week 6, and some may justifiably consider that KC’s greatest accomplishment of this youngish season. The Raiders aren’t half as legit as their 5-2 record would indicate, so I respectfully disagree. Oakland hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record, and they won three of those five games by 3 points or less. At least the Chargers can say they beat the Broncos in Week 6.

KC has four more games coming up against teams currently below .500. Each Sunday presents its own set of challenges, the Chiefs can't sleep on any of these hungry football teams and blah blah blah all those other clichés you’ve heard about "any given Sunday". That being said, KC won't be underdogs again until Week 12 when they travel to Colorado. That means the Chiefs could realistically reach an 8-2 record without defeating a “good” football team.

I wish I could say this upcoming game will give us some answers, but it looks like rinse-and-repeat (-and-repeat) for KC in Week 8. Oakland and New Orleans had several obvious similarities, and we can draw apparent parallels between the Saints and Indianapolis Colts, too. SI's Chris Burke even referred to Indy as "the AFC Saints" in his latest power rankings. So, for the third straight week, KC faces an opponent with a dynamic passing offense and a porous defense. They can still reuse much of the gameplan Andy Reid designed during the Week 5 bye. That alone would make the Chiefs a Vegas favorite this Sunday.

So, what is this team’s identity? When you think of this year’s Chiefs, what comes to mind? I’ll answer my own question with another question: is it a cop-out to just name the most outstanding players on the team? I definitely envision Marcus Peters picking off infuriated QBs while Spencer Ware blasts through opposing defenses, but a team identity rises above individual pieces. Due partly to their lack of a signature win this season, and despite being a top-ten team in the NFL, KC doesn’t have that. Losing is the only thing that can change the Chiefs’ identity until November 27^th, when they face off with the Broncos at Mile High Stadium.

Doug LaCerte tries not to neglect his Twitter account @DLaC67, and he occasionally still uses his Facebook page.

Week 2 Preview and Predictions: Houston Texans

I’m scared about our Kansas City Chiefs facing off with the Houston Texans in this Week 2 road game. I recently talked about how KC matches up against the intimidating defensive playmakers for Houston, but the offensive line won’t be 100% today. Laurent Duvernay-Tardif and Parker Ehinger, KC’s starting guards in Week 1, haven’t practiced in the latter half of the week and will not see the field in Houston. With or without all their pieces, the Chiefs would still be facing a tough test today.

The injury concerns aren’t the only reasons to worry. It took KC 21 fourth-quarter points, numerous punting gaffes from the San Diego Chargers and all of Spencer Ware’s 199 total yards just to send that game to overtime. KC pulled off the largest comeback in franchise history to win against an objectively sub-par team last week.

Houston was a legitimate playoff team last year – at least before being plagued with injuries – and most analysts can agree they’ve gotten better. The addition of new QB Brock Osweiler, fantasy football favorite Lamar Miller and dangerous first-round pick wide out Will Fuller makes the Texans’ offense dynamic. The Texans defense clearly has a better chance at limiting KC’s offense than the Chargers did, so Osweiler’s ability to run Houston’s new, multifaceted offense could decide the winner of today’s game.

The fact that Vegas only gives the Chiefs between 1 and 1.5 points actually makes me more impressed with KC’s Week 1 performance. This improved Texans team looks frighteningly talented, and our Chiefs looked woefully ineffective in three of the last four quarters they played. I think KC needs a turnover to keep this one close, but they’re due for at least one, so I am predicting a close game. We’re lookin’ at you, Marcus Peters.

I regret to say that I predict a 27-24 win for the Texans today. Expect KC to keep things interesting with that aforementioned turnover, and expect the Chiefs to target the middle of the field often with veteran middle linebacker Brian Cushing injured this week. I sincerely hope Travis Kelce proves my initial prediction wrong and scores you fantasy footballers a bajillion points today.

Feel free to publicly shame me when all my predictions go wrong @DLaC67, or head directly to my Facebook page.

Fisher and Company Face Tough Task in Houston

Kansas City Chiefs left tackle Eric Fisher, the often-maligned first overall pick in the 2013 draft, just gave us the best regular season performance in his budding career, but the Houston Texans defense humbles some of the planet’s strongest individuals on a weekly basis. Fisher’s confidence has perhaps never been higher, which is great, because he’ll need it this Sunday.

Pro Football Focus proclaimed that Fisher and his 82.0 grade was the NFL’s best at his position in Week 1. Kansas City right guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif received a grade of 79.4, and right tackle Mitchell Schwartz (who will perhaps see more J.J. Watt than any Chief this time around) received a 75.7. This should obviously bode well for KC’s offense as a whole, but the reigning Deacon Jones Award recipient isn’t the only guy to fear on Houston’s defense.

Whitney Mercilus earned the season’s first AFC Defensive Player of the Week award by terrorizing Jay Cutler and the rest of the Chicago Bears offense. Mercilus finished Week 1 with four hits on the opposing QB, including two sacks and a forced fumble. Nobody in the league has more sacks since Week 6 of last season than this guy. Mercilus’ two sacks and forced fumble occurred when he targeted the Bears’ left tackle – a position now held securely in KC by the aforementioned Eric Fisher.

Fisher succeeded on passing plays and run protection interchangeably last Sunday, and it seemed that he only lost his man when Alex Smith was forced out of the pocket. This Texans defense will surely throw more creative blitz packages at KC than the San Diego Chargers could, and the difference in talent found on the Chargers’ defense and Houston’s is immense. KC needs both their offensive tackles to limit the damage done by Mercilus and Watt in order to keep the offense moving in Houston.

Since pointing out how much I appreciate all 17 people following me on Twitter @DLaC67, I actually lost a follower. Thanks for nothing, whoever you were.

Comeback Chaos for AFC West Competitors

Aaaaaand after a little two-year break, we're back! Here's a Week 1 recap for the entire AFC West, but check back soon for more Chiefs-based analysis:

If you live and die with an AFC West team that was expected to be competitive this year, this should feel like a rather lovely week. Football is back, and you just experienced an extremely entertaining comeback victory that earned your team part of a three-way tie for 1^st place in the division. What a wonderful start to the season it was, unless you’re a Chargers fan.

The Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers began the regular season in memorable fashion Thursday night as 25.4 million people watched from home. This one-point comeback win for the defending champs in the season-opening Super Bowl rematch only served as the first course of intense entertainment served up by the AFC West in Week 1.

The Oakland Raiders took their high hopes and highly regarded quarterback David Carr for a long plane ride southeast on Sunday to start their regular season against the New Orleans Saints. Oakland overcame a four-touchdown, 424-yard day from Drew Brees and a 14-point deficit to start their season 1-0. Carr went blow-for-blow with Brees until the very end, when a Raiders touchdown drive, a two-point conversion and a barely-missed 61-yard field goal attempt from New Orleans resulted in a 25-24 comeback victory for Oakland. Viewers of that game probably presumed nothing would top what they just watched, but as that Raiders game wrapped up, Oakland’s greatest rival was mounting another incredible comeback in Kansas City.

OddsShark.com gave the San Diego Chargers 6.5 points in this matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs, but Philip Rivers and Company got off to an early 24-3 lead at Arrowhead. The Chiefs defense then buckled down and allowed just 6 points in the second half, and KC managed to score 17 points in the 4^th quarter's last 10 minutes to send the game to overtime. Alex Smith then led the Chiefs on a 10-play, 75-yard drive culminating in a game-winning, two-yard touchdown run.

The previous comeback wins for their divisional rivals must alter the emotional flavor of this victory for the Chiefs, and vice versa. These hard-fought games ramp up the tension and excitement within the division that will only escalate as the season continues.

Next week, Kansas City travels to Houston where OddsShark.com says they’ll be two-point underdogs against the Houston Texans – the same organization they thrashed and shut out in the AFC Divisional round of last year’s playoffs. Denver will be heavily favored against the 0-1 Indianapolis Colts, and Oakland will reportedly give 4.5 to the 0-1 Atlanta Falcons in the Raiders’ home opener. The Chargers return to San Diego, where they’ll try for a fresh start against the 0-1 Jacksonville Jaguars. Teams from the AFC West won’t face off again until Week 5, when the Chargers travel to Oakland. The Chiefs then travel to Oakland in Week 6 for what could be one of the biggest games in this great rivalry’s recent history.

Doug LaCerte frequently neglects his Facebook page, and he profoundly appreciates each of the 17 people following him on Twitter @DLaC67.

A Return to Winning Ways?

This week, the Chiefs relished in having a very good problem on their hands. For the first time this season, KC must now learn to react to a loss. In a long-awaited return to Arrowhead, the Chiefs will have San Diego and the often-unbearable Philip Rivers to overcome this week. How will they react to their first defeat, and how often will Philip Rivers make you, for any of numerous reasons, want to slap him through your TV screen?

The Chiefs return to Arrowhead for the first time since November 3^rd for the teams' 107^th matchup. The 4-6 Chargers have won the last two meetings and 8 of the last 10. In their first year with former Broncos offensive coordinator Mike McCoy at the helm, the Chargers are potent but unpredictable. They started the year 2-3, fought their way back to a winning record, then promptly plummeted to their current position below .500 with a three-game losing streak. They've won against the Colts and played well against Denver, yet they lost to Oakland and Tennessee.

Kansas City is looking to return to their winning ways and avoid the start of a potentially mojo-killing losing streak. This is a huge game we'll be watching. With another face-off against Denver looming seven days in the distance, the Chiefs have a talented and bitterly angry squad to deal with. Will KC be able to overcome Rivers and Sandy Eggo at home today? Finish up with my five predictions to find out.

1- Ryan Mathews will absolutely not have the kind of day he had against Miami last week, when he took 18 carries for 127 yards. Look for the Chiefs to cut that yardage nearly in half today, limiting him to 70 yards or less on the ground.

2- An angry Jamaal Charles, on the other hand, should abuse the 16^th ranked running defense in the league. Doug Pederson gets wise and connects with him on at least two successful screen passes as well, giving #25 at least 110 total yards today.

3- Once again, KC probably needs to win the turnover ratio to win the game. Expect Shaun Smith, Marcus Cooper or both of them to snag a timely pick.

4- Rivers will get big yardage through the air, at least 300 yards, without turning it into a win.

5- At least three times, Rivers whines and makes facial expressions that anyone beyond elementary school should be embarrassed to make, as the Chiefs go on to win 20-17. I really do love to hate that guy.