Can Browning's Bengals Bring Bummer Ending To KC's 2023?

When was the last time the vibes in Chiefs Kingdom felt this low? Losing a Super Bowl is frustrating, of course, but the Kansas City Chiefs performed impressively in practically every moment until the Big Game at the end of the season. I'm more thinking about fear than frustration, I suppose. With two games left in the season, the Chiefs already have six losses. The lack of fan confidence (at least this fan's confidence) entering this game against a backup QB and a team not expected to reach the playoffs tells you all you need to know about the Chiefs' vulnerability at this point.

The Cincinnati Bengals are one loss away from effectively ending their season. If Cincy wins their final two games and gets help from other 8-7 teams ahead of them in the Wild Card hunt, Jake Browning's Bengals could sneak into the playoffs. They're alive, but just barely; their chances are at or below 20%, depending on which proprietary stat you choose to use for a measuring stick. Chiefs recently lost to other desperate teams fighting for their playoff lives when they faced the Packers and Bills, so should Cincy scare KC today? The Raiders didn't scare anybody last week, and they embarrassed KC on Christmas.

Football can be weird. Raiders QB Aidan O'Connell posted an 88.8 QBR in his first meeting with the Chiefs this season, and the Raiders lost by 14. He just posted a 12.1 QBR on the Chiefs - on Christmas, at Arrowhead - and the Chiefs lost by six. This Christmas day, a fumble on a trick play and a pick-six occurred within seven seconds of game-time. Before ten seconds could run off the clock, the Raiders defense scored as much as the Chiefs would score all day. That's a testament to the occasional flukiness of football, but it's also more evidence that KC's offense has not figured out how to pull their team out of the fire when it matters most.

Mahomes still has his magical moments, but on paper, he looks like a totally different guy since the Week 8 disaster in Denver. He had a QBR higher than 64 in all of his first seven games of this season. Since Week 8, he's only posted a QBR above 61 once. Mahomes never took more than two sacks in any of his first seven games. Since then, he's been sacked three or more times in four different games.

Five of those sacks this season were allowed by Jawaan Taylor, who also leads the NFL in penalties with 17. L'Jarius Sneed, by the way, is tied for fourth with 10 penalties, making the Chiefs the only team in the league with multiple players in the top-10 in penalties drawn. For Taylor in particular, these penalties are beyond disappointing. He just penned a four-year, $80-million contract with the Chiefs last offseason. PFF gives him a 50.1 overall grade for his efforts in 2023. Since Taylor' effectiveness is so critical to the effectiveness of Mahomes - the most important man on the field whenever he's on the field - Taylor's struggles may be the biggest and most understated factor in the recent decline of KC's offense.

All of these are factors that I believe the Chiefs will overcome today, thanks in large part to the Bengals' struggles on defense. They allow the second-most yards-per-game average, despite the best efforts of defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo. KC's defense is still holding strong with the league's second-fewest total yards, passing yards, and total points-per-game allowed. I'll predict an ugly 17-13 victory for KC. Enjoy the game with people who love football, and enjoy all the new year with people who love you.

Both Offenses Unpredictable In Vegas - KC Christmas Clash

How will your family incorporate a Chiefs game at noon into your holiday plans? Are you opening up gifts before the game? For families with kids, the youngsters surely want to see what Santa Claus brought them ASAP, so are the parents in Chiefs Kingdom drinking coffee and unwrapping gifts until noon? I'm not a parent yet, so my coffee will be filled with amaretto and my morning will be filled with gambling on this intriguing, important battle between the Chiefs and the Raiders. The Raiders are unpredictable right now, and a win for KC today keeps their hopes for a playoff bye week alive.

If Baltimore loses two of three against the Niners, Dolphins and Steelers, and Miami loses one of their last three against Dallas, Baltimore or Buffalo, KC can win their final three games to reclaim the #1 seed in the AFC. Thanks in part to a mid-season change at head coach, it's tough to predict how the Raiders will look in today's game.  In their last eight games, Vegas scored 17 or fewer points six times and 30 or more twice. The Chiefs beat them comfortably in Week 13. The week after that, the Raiders lost 3-0 to the Nick Mullens-led Vikings. Then, they scored 63 in a blowout victory over the Chargers that preceded the firing of the Chargers' GM and head coach. 

Part of the Raiders' unpredictable nature comes from their inexperienced QB. Aidan O'Connell's QBRs from his last four games were 77.7, 16.5, 88.8 and 22.1. That 88.8 was the Chiefs, by the way. The Raiders still lost by two touchdowns that day, but O'Connell was cookin'. The other two teams he posted an elite-level QBR against this season - the Giants and Chargers - have bottom-10 defenses. With Nick Bolton back on the prowl in the middle of the field for KC, the Chiefs defense should look better against O'Connell's offense than it did in Week 13.

It's safe to say the Vegas offense and its coaching staff are learning on the job to varying degrees of success, but the same is true for Kansas City's offense. What can the Chiefs do about their underperforming passing game? There is no Deandre Hopkins or Adam Thielen out there to sign anymore. Bringing in Zach Ertz won't redefine this offense. Maybe Kadarius Toney would be out-right benched for good after his latest struggles if he were only one of many explosive receivers on the depth chart. The thing is, the Chiefs don't have much high-ceiling talent in the wide receiver room aside from emerging rookie star Rashee Rice.

Toney is one of the most dynamic playmakers on any Chiefs roster in recent memory, but his mistakes continuously cost the Chiefs possessions, which sometimes cost them games. The simple solution is to give him the ball in hand-off situations or passes behind the line of scrimmage so KC can reduce his chances to commit major errors that lead to turnovers. I expect to see some combination of the Chiefs doing this and reducing his snap count in favor of other guys from the bottom half of the receivers' depth chart. Mecole Hardman returned to practice this week after a thumb injury landed him on the injured reserve list in Week 12. Reincorporating him into the offense isn't ideal right now.

Three weeks away from the end of the regular season is not the time to be learning what new or newly returned assets can do for an offense already suffering through an identity crisis. Mecole is a good depth addition, especially since he knows the system from prior seasons. He is not the answer. Justyn Ross is not the answer. The answer is trusting your bread and butter, and our bread and butter is the best quarterback ever throwing to the best tight end ever.

Travis Kelce's job gets harder every week that the Chiefs wide receivers struggle, because their poor reputation allows opposing defenses to fear them less and focus on Kelce more. To be the greatest ever, though, means thriving through hardship. I expect Mahomes to make more passes to Kelce into tight coverage as the season goes on and we head into the playoffs. That's clearly a better option than throwing contested balls to Blake Bell or Skyy Moore or (obviously) Kadarius Toney. I also expect to see more targets for Rice, who shines when his usage increases.

This is no sky-is-falling indictment of the Chiefs offense, to be clear. They still rank third league-wide in passing yards per game. This offense still helped the Chiefs stay in pole position for the division title and reasonably close to the #1 seed through 15 weeks of the regular season. Andy Reid is a genuine mastermind of running NFL offenses, and he is probably the #1 reason to believe the Chiefs offense will be good enough when it matters most this season.

All I want for Christmas this year is a strong finish to the regular season for KC's offense. I think I'll get it, too. I'm predicting a comforting and comfortable 31-13 win for KC. Enjoy your football and your holidays with your loved ones, and I'll be back next week for the final post of 2023.

Moments of Mahomes Mediocrity Make Chiefs Fans Better Understand His Greatness

The Kansas City Chiefs just lost consecutive games for the first time since September of 2021. Both defeats came at the hands of desperate teams with playoff aspirations and high-ceiling quarterbacks. Today's face-off should not be so dramatic, and if it is, the Chiefs did something very wrong. The New England Patriots have a defense that allows the third-fewest rushing yards per game to opponents and the ninth-fewest total yards. That is the list of positive things to say about the Patriots.

Their average of 13 points a game this season is lower than any other team in football by 1.1 points. Mac Jones has been benched for Bailey Zappe, and even the great Bill Belichick is allegedly on his way out (eventually). All this drama and bad football in Boston should equate to an easy victory for KC today, but nothing feels easy for the Chiefs lately. This version of Kansas City's offense really has changed the vibes in Chiefs Kingdom, and not for the better.

We just witnessed consecutive games from Mahomes compiling a QBR below 52 and a passer rating below 80. That didn't happen for two full calendar years before this. His QBR on the season is still fourth in the league, and I do consider ESPN's QBR stat a more comprehensive and accurate measuring stick for modern quarterback play, but Mahomes has undeniably looked pedestrian through several games this year. He looks like a totally different guy on paper ever since the debacle in Denver.

Only one time since this year's loss to the Broncos has he posted a QBR higher than 54. He hasn't surpassed 300 passing yards since then, either. We can point to a lot of different factors for KC's ineffectiveness, but the highly paid megastar at the heart of the franchise must wear some of the blame. Not even a perfect record for the rest of the regular season could make fans in the Kingdom feel fully confident in the offense again. There's not much more we can learn by facing the Pats, Raiders, the Bengals without Joe Burrow and the Chargers without Justin Herbert.

I'm predicting a 24-13 victory for KC today, but the fans' restlessness will persist. Today's game will still be a good time to count our blessings, though. I'd gladly take a struggling Patrick Mahomes over peak Bailey Zappe or Mac Jones any day. These moments in which Mahomes isn't excellent serve as worthwhile reminders that Mahomes is excellent for an unprecedented percentage of the time he spends on the field.

Can KC Score Enough Without Pacheco to Defeat Desperate Buffalo Bills?

A desperate Green Bay Packers team defeated the Kansas City Chiefs at Lambeau last week. Another desperate team faces off with the Chiefs at Arrowhead this afternoon. The mercurial Josh Allen and his Buffalo Bills need a win today to avoid a losing record and stay alive in the AFC's crowded Wild Card race. Allen may play like the MVP today, or he could lay a major egg. It's always hard to tell with him.

The Chiefs defense he'll face today should be improved thanks to a major return from injury. Linebacker Nick Bolton will retake his starting job from Drue Tranquill, who's now on the injury report himself with a concussion. Without their two best players at that spot, the Chiefs got cooked by Jordan Love all game long last week. That won't be so easy now that Bolton's back.

Tranquill isn't alone on that list of Chiefs inactive due to injury today. Safety Bryan Cook, offensive tackle Donovan Smith and stud running back Isiah Pacheco are all out this week. That's bad news for a Chiefs offense that already looks unimpressive. The Chiefs have scored 20 points or fewer in half of their games this season. They're also turning the ball over at a rate that makes it difficult to sustain success in this league.

Only five teams in the NFL have thrown more interceptions than KC, and only one team has picked off opposing teams fewer times than KC. At least the Chiefs are forcing fumbles at the fifth-highest rate in the league. Still, that results in a -6 turnover differential, which is the seventh-worst in football. Kansas City won it all last season with a -3 differential, so perhaps that -6 isn't as detrimental as it seems. Either way, losing the turnover battle against strong opposition is a recipe for an L in the NFL.

I think the Chiefs avoid major mistakes and sneak away with an exciting victory today. Solid coverage from KC's secondary should make Allen do something foolish at least once. If the Chiefs win today's turnover battle, they can win the game, and I think they will. I'll predict a 23-20 win for KC. 

Jordan Love's Inconsistency Makes Packers Unpredictable

Our Kansas City Chiefs will be fighting to keep their hopes of a playoff bye week healthy tonight in Green Bay. The 5-6 Packers will be fighting to keep all their playoff hopes alive. Perhaps an early 14-point deficit to the lowly Raiders was the "come to Jesus" moment the Chiefs offense needed. Perhaps it was Rashee Rice's breakout performance that made KC's offense look legit again. We'll see today if that offense can keep it going against a Green Bay defense that is league-average in practically every relevant statistic.

The Packers offense is also average in practically every way, so predicting how much KC must score in order to overcome the Packers feels difficult. Green Bay's average of 21 points scored per game ranks 18th league-wide. Their passing yards per game rank 17th. Their total yards per game rank 19th. Jordan Love, whose QBR ranks 20th, is even more unpredictable than KC's offense.

Out of Love's 11 games played this season, he has finished five games with a QBR above 74 and five games with a QBR under 43. He just cooked the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving, yet the Packers have lost to unimpressive opponents like the Raiders and Falcons. Love threw five touchdowns and no picks over his last two games. Maybe that's his turning point, or maybe this studly Chiefs defense will hand him a painful reality check. I'm predicting the latter.

KC has handled tougher opponents this season, and Love's inconsistency. The Packers also have a final injury report that takes longer to read than this article. On top of Aaron Jones missing another week, star cornerback Jaire Alexander and both of Green Bay's first-string safeties are listed as questionable. Even if they all play, it seems inevitable that those injuries will hamper that defense's ability to stop a (hopefully) resurgent Chiefs offense. I'll predict a relatively stress-free 31-20 victory for Kansas City.

KC Can Bounce Back By Attacking Raiders' Unproven QB

Chiefs Kingdom is fully aware that the Kansas City Chiefs are the better team on paper for today's game, but how will the Chiefs bounce back from last week's loss to the Philadelphia Eagles? Yes, the Chiefs lost to the Eagles last week, and that still stings, but we have to remember all the things that went wrong in order for KC to lose that game. Travis Kelce fumbled the ball in the red zone. Patrick Mahomes threw a pick in the dang end zone. Justin Watson, Marquez Valdez-Scantling and even Kelce dropped game-altering, catchable balls. After all that, the Chiefs lost to the defending NFC champs by four.

Despite also coming off a loss, the Raiders will be pumped up for this game. The dismissal of former head coach Josh McDaniels seems to have lifted a dark cloud from over the franchise. A win over KC would be monumental for the Raiders and their interim head coach Antonio Pierce. The old saying would propose that Vegas has everything to win while KC has everything to lose. Luckily for Chiefs fans, predicting a victory for Vegas (the football team) against any opponent that isn't a tomato can is something that Vegas (the oddsmakers) would never do.

The theme for the Las Vegas Raiders this season has been simple, if not intriguing: they lost to every team they played that doesn't stink. These Raiders, who are surprisingly still in the playoff hunt past the half-way point of this season, collected W's when facing the Broncos, Packers, Pats, Giants and Jets. None of those teams have winning records. Even the Raiders' weapons that may frighten most other teams in the league will match up poorly against the Chiefs.

Davante Adams still looks like an elite receiver, but the Chiefs excel in handling elite receivers now. The L'Jarius Sneed/Trent McDuffie tandem helped limit A.J. Brown to a single catch for eight yards last week, and I've extensively covered them shutting down other great wide-outs this year. The Raiders' ability to keep their QB upright will be tested by the Chiefs' elite pass-rush today, as well. Vegas' 2.5 sacks allowed per game is almost exactly the league average - they're tied for 17th in that category - and the Chiefs 3.6 sacks per game is the NFL's second-highest.

Another key matchup to watch for will be Isiah Pacheco facing off against the Raiders run defense. Although Vegas held the Dolphins Raheem Mostert mostly in-check last week, they've been one of the league's worst over the course of the regular season. Pacheco ran the ball 19 times for 89 yards against Philly's elite run defense last week. He's only 27 carries and 116 rushing yards away from his total production last season. Another solid performance from Pacheco today could ensure that he surpasses last season's production well before Christmas this year.

Pacheco and KC's defense should be enough to avoid some Cinderella nonsense today. The Raiders starting quarterback and 135th draft pick in the latest draft, Aidan O'Connell, hasn't done enough to instill nearly that much faith in Vegas. I know the Chiefs have had their struggles lately, but we cannot abandon all logic and presume KC would lose a game like this. The Chiefs offense isn't going to fix itself overnight, though. I'm predicting an ugly 24-16 victory for Kansas City.

KC's Elite D Key to Victory in Super Bowl Rematch

Tonight, the NFL gives us the best game they could possibly offer in the regular season. Hours from now, the 8-1 Philadelphia Eagles take the field at Arrowhead to face off with the reigning Super Bowl champs. This rematch of last year's Big Game offers KC a chance to get more confident and Philly a chance to get a little revenge. Despite these teams putting 73 total points on the board last time they met, today's over/under for total points sits at 46. These two teams are still great, but the Chiefs have achieved that greatness in unexpected ways.

The huge improvement of KC's defense probably counts as the most pleasant surprise for Chiefs Kingdom this year. This Chiefs defense ranks fourth in total yards and passing yards allowed per game and allows the league's second-fewest points per game. They'll be facing a Philly offense that racks up the fourth-most total yards per game and scores the NFL's third-most points per game. The Eagles offense features the best quarterback-receiver duo in the league - yes, better than Tua and Tyreek. Jalen Hurts is second only to Patrick Mahomes in odds to win MVP this season, and A.J. Brown has been about as consistently great as possible this year. Brown has at least six catches in nine of Philly's 10 games this season, and he racked up over 125 receiving yards in six of them. 

Many other potent elements of the Eagles' offense keeps them balanced. Hurts averages 9.8 rushes per game. DeVonta Smith has seven games with at least four catches and punishes teams who devote too much attention to Brown. D'Andre Swift is averaging over 16 carries per game for over 75 yards in his last eight games. It won't be easy to limit Philly's offense, but the Chiefs are well-equipped to do so. L'Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie helped the Chiefs limit Miami - the only team in football to put up more total points and total yards than Philly - to just 14 points.

While the Eagles defense doesn't stand out on paper as much as KC's currently does, both defenses excel in pressuring opposing QB's. The Chiefs' 31 team sacks ties for #8 in the league. The Eagles' multi-faceted attack featuring Josh Sweat, Jalen Carter and Haason Reddick is right behind KC with 30 team sacks. The Chiefs only allow 1.3 sacks per game this season, tying them for the fewest in the NFL. Continuing that level of success on the front lines will be crucial to keeping KC alive in tonight's game.

I don't want a moment this potentially epic to be hampered by penalties, but numbers indicate that it's possible. They also indicate that KC isn't likely to get the upper hand in this regard. The Chiefs have the third-worst net yardage differential from penalties this season, while the Eagles have the fifth-best. Both teams are fresh and relatively healthy after their bye week, with veteran Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert, second-string Philly safety Justin Evans and rarely-utilized Chiefs receiver Richie James being the only names on the final injury report. Whether or not a return to nearly-full strength for KC makes the Chiefs better than Philly remains to be proven.

The Eagles handled the Dolphins 31-17 earlier this season. They're coming off a victory over the Cowboys. Their -2 turnover differential this season isn't great, but it's better than Kansas City's -4. A moment or two when KC's flaws result in them losing a game to a great opponent seem inevitable based on what we've seen from the Chiefs this season. This game is a prime example, so I'm begrudgingly predicting a sad ending to a thrilling game, and a 26-23 Philly victory. It should be close, and it could even come down to overtime. I hope I'm dead wrong, and I hope you get to enjoy it with people who love football and love you. Cheers, Chiefs Kingdom.