How will your family incorporate a Chiefs game at noon into your holiday plans? Are you opening up gifts before the game? For families with kids, the youngsters surely want to see what Santa Claus brought them ASAP, so are the parents in Chiefs Kingdom drinking coffee and unwrapping gifts until noon? I'm not a parent yet, so my coffee will be filled with amaretto and my morning will be filled with gambling on this intriguing, important battle between the Chiefs and the Raiders. The Raiders are unpredictable right now, and a win for KC today keeps their hopes for a playoff bye week alive.
If Baltimore loses two of three against the Niners, Dolphins and Steelers, and Miami loses one of their last three against Dallas, Baltimore or Buffalo, KC can win their final three games to reclaim the #1 seed in the AFC. Thanks in part to a mid-season change at head coach, it's tough to predict how the Raiders will look in today's game. In their last eight games, Vegas scored 17 or fewer points six times and 30 or more twice. The Chiefs beat them comfortably in Week 13. The week after that, the Raiders lost 3-0 to the Nick Mullens-led Vikings. Then, they scored 63 in a blowout victory over the Chargers that preceded the firing of the Chargers' GM and head coach.
Part of the Raiders' unpredictable nature comes from their inexperienced QB. Aidan O'Connell's QBRs from his last four games were 77.7, 16.5, 88.8 and 22.1. That 88.8 was the Chiefs, by the way. The Raiders still lost by two touchdowns that day, but O'Connell was cookin'. The other two teams he posted an elite-level QBR against this season - the Giants and Chargers - have bottom-10 defenses. With Nick Bolton back on the prowl in the middle of the field for KC, the Chiefs defense should look better against O'Connell's offense than it did in Week 13.
It's safe to say the Vegas offense and its coaching staff are learning on the job to varying degrees of success, but the same is true for Kansas City's offense. What can the Chiefs do about their underperforming passing game? There is no Deandre Hopkins or Adam Thielen out there to sign anymore. Bringing in Zach Ertz won't redefine this offense. Maybe Kadarius Toney would be out-right benched for good after his latest struggles if he were only one of many explosive receivers on the depth chart. The thing is, the Chiefs don't have much high-ceiling talent in the wide receiver room aside from emerging rookie star Rashee Rice.
Toney is one of the most dynamic playmakers on any Chiefs roster in recent memory, but his mistakes continuously cost the Chiefs possessions, which sometimes cost them games. The simple solution is to give him the ball in hand-off situations or passes behind the line of scrimmage so KC can reduce his chances to commit major errors that lead to turnovers. I expect to see some combination of the Chiefs doing this and reducing his snap count in favor of other guys from the bottom half of the receivers' depth chart. Mecole Hardman returned to practice this week after a thumb injury landed him on the injured reserve list in Week 12. Reincorporating him into the offense isn't ideal right now.
Three weeks away from the end of the regular season is not the time to be learning what new or newly returned assets can do for an offense already suffering through an identity crisis. Mecole is a good depth addition, especially since he knows the system from prior seasons. He is not the answer. Justyn Ross is not the answer. The answer is trusting your bread and butter, and our bread and butter is the best quarterback ever throwing to the best tight end ever.
Travis Kelce's job gets harder every week that the Chiefs wide receivers struggle, because their poor reputation allows opposing defenses to fear them less and focus on Kelce more. To be the greatest ever, though, means thriving through hardship. I expect Mahomes to make more passes to Kelce into tight coverage as the season goes on and we head into the playoffs. That's clearly a better option than throwing contested balls to Blake Bell or Skyy Moore or (obviously) Kadarius Toney. I also expect to see more targets for Rice, who shines when his usage increases.
This is no sky-is-falling indictment of the Chiefs offense, to be clear. They still rank third league-wide in passing yards per game. This offense still helped the Chiefs stay in pole position for the division title and reasonably close to the #1 seed through 15 weeks of the regular season. Andy Reid is a genuine mastermind of running NFL offenses, and he is probably the #1 reason to believe the Chiefs offense will be good enough when it matters most this season.
All I want for Christmas this year is a strong finish to the regular season for KC's offense. I think I'll get it, too. I'm predicting a comforting and comfortable 31-13 win for KC. Enjoy your football and your holidays with your loved ones, and I'll be back next week for the final post of 2023.
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