5 Reasons This Giants Game Is Totally Trap-Tastic

Be afraid, Chiefs fans. Be very afraid. Although KC is undefeated and the Giants are winless, this is a trap game for numerous reasons. At least five of ‘em.

1- An accurate QB is this team’s kryptonite. The defense had to be great in order to counter Romo and Dez Bryant, and even Vick gouged the Chiefs for huge chunks of yardage at a time, in a game which could’ve been very different if not for the +5 turnover ratio. Speaking of which…

2- This streak of turnover-less football is certainly impressive, but it only makes sense that it comes to an end today. Expect a pick, or a fumble, or something. It’s simply been too long without one. The Giants are 31^st in the league in turnover ratio, but they just plain aren’t that bad. Something is bound to change.

3- The Giants lost 38-0 last week, giving Carolina their most one-sided win in franchise history, and only the 4^th regular season shutout in team history. Today’s game is as much of a must-win as you can find this early in the season. Think they’ll be motivated?

4- Jason Pierre-Paul still plays for New York, as does a still-legit defense. The Giants rank 17^th league-wide in passing yards allowed against Peyton Manning, Tony Romo and Cam Newton-led offenses.

5- I hate to say it, but the Chiefs are lucky to be undefeated. The Chiefs’ offense was struggling against Dallas, but, thanks to turnovers and defense, KC snuck away with a W. The next week, the Chief’s offense was struggling against Philly, but, thanks to turnovers and defense, KC snuck away with a win. See a pattern here? If the Chiefs wish to really prove themselves as a top-shelf NFL team, the offense has to come together, and soon.

Thankfully, I believe they’ll take steps toward that today. Although this is indeed a trap game for the ages, KC should be able to pull out another gritty victory at home today. In a tense game, the D holds strong long enough for the Chiefs to get their act together on the other side of the ball. Chiefs win, 23-20.

A Hopeful Home Opener Preview

On my list of least likable NFL teams, the over-hyped and under-performing Dallas Cowboys would have to rank 3^rd overall. Since the Raiders are presumably still a joke and we don't play Cincinnati this year, this Sunday will yield for me the most enjoyment I can attain from hating someone for this entire season. Let us revel in communal disgust as we discuss this upcoming Chiefs home opener.

Last year, Dallas' offensive line ranked 22^nd in the league in run blocking and 11^th in pass protection. This year, they've added two new linemen to the starting offense that have zero combined snaps in the NFL prior to last Sunday. DeMarco Murray ran the ball 20 times for 86 yards last week against the Giants. That's not an outstanding performance, nor is it an embarrassment, especially considering that the Cowboys held on for a week 1 victory. MJD's production last week? That was embarrassing.

Maurice Jones-Drew played his 100^th game and carried the ball 15 times for 45 yards, averaging 3 yards per rush. MJD was only held to a lower yard-per-carry average once in the two previous seasons. For the record, Jacksonville's offensive line ranked 17^th in run blocking last year, and with the addition of the almost-1^st overall draft pick Luke Joeckel, they're sure to rank higher in 2013.

The Cowboys will presumably counter the Chiefs' strength in stopping the run by bringing a pass-heavy offensive plan to Arrowhead this week. Romo, who is currently listed as probable for Sunday's game, completed 73.5% of his passes last week against a solid defense. He only averaged 5.4 yards per catch though, which is the lowest average he's ever recorded in a game with at least 4 completions.

The Chiefs, with an uber-athletic secondary that knows how to tackle in the open field, will hope to keep this trend going. If last week's performance is any indication of their chances, their chances look pretty damn good. Just don't forget that those numbers are artificially inflated by Jacksonville's overall crappiness. Gabbert completed 16 of 35 passes. That's less than a 46% completion percentage. He played so poorly, in fact, that he lost his job; Chad Henne will start for the Jags this week against Oakland. Bob Sutton should probably send him some kind of classy fruit basket.

The chess-match was totally dominated by Sutton last Sunday. 3 sacks by future-perennial-Pro Bowler Justin Houston and constant pressure on the quarterback will prove that as coaches review the game tape this week. Not only were Chiefs consistently getting behind enemy lines, they were often doing so untouched.

But how will the Chiefs' offense fare against the Cowboy's D? Feel free to use Wednesday's post for reference, keeping in mind the aforementioned bad-team-based inflation. Dallas gave up 450 yards and 4 touchdowns through the air last week. While Eli>Alex Smith, it's not by a lot, and I'm slowly starting to believe the hype that this offense could be at least as good as New York's. Dallas held the Giants' running backs to 42 yards in 12 carries, but they'll have a wholly different monster to deal with when it comes to Jamaal. My faith will always be with #25. Until Demarcus Ware eats him.

Here are my five predictions for Sunday's home-opener-

1- KC doubles New York's yardage output from last week. That means 84 yards, at least. The offense surprised me last week with a somewhat balance run/pass ratio, so I expect Charles to get significant touches to keep the second level of the Dallas D on their toes. An emerging group of talented receivers will spread the defense out enough for Jamaal to slash and burn as only he can.

2- Romo's completion percentage will drop by at least 8 points, thanks to some applied pressure from KC linebackers.

3- Hali and Houston get at least a sack each, as Dallas struggles to decide which side of the line they should stack.

4- Kansas City earns 25 more yards with kickoff and punt returns than Dallas, as Ryan Succop begins his season without a miss. That's a prediction twofer right there. Lucky you.

5- I'm going to be a downer with my first call of the season, but only for the sake of the unknown. We really have no idea how this offense will react to a better defense, or how this defense will react to a real quarterback. I'm going to guess that the Chiefs will compete, but ultimately get outgunned at home. Chiefs lose, 27-24, and curb the enthusiasm of this tense, excited fan-base just a little bit. It may be disappointing, but unless it's a blowout it won't be enough to stop us from daydreaming about the playoffs. It should be “dropped your beer in the stands” disappointing, not “dropped your heart medicine in the ocean” disappointing. Still, nobody enjoys spilling their beer, so let's all hope I'm dead wrong.

Acing The Easy Test

Well, that's a good start. Take away that embarrassing first set-of-downs and subsequent blocked punt for a safety, and you're looking at a dominant shutout victory for the good guys. KC outperformed the Jaguars in every facet of the game, as they damn well should have. We'll look at the defensive performance later this week, and review some matchups for the upcoming game against Dallas. Today, we're taking a closer look at this new offense's first real-game performance. As always, everything about the offense begins with the quarterback- and holy crap, how things have changed.

Smith completed over 60% of his passes (21/34) and threw for 2 touchdowns to earn a 94.4 Quarterback Rating. For reference, Matt Cassel never achieved that QBR last season, and never threw 2 touchdowns in a game while completing 60% of his passes. This wasn't even a great game from Alex Smith. In fact, it was pretty average- his 2012 QBR was 104.1 and the year prior it was 90.7. He completed 70% of his passes last year, and 61% in 2011. Smith completed passes to 9 different Chiefs, including 4 passes to new fullback acquisition Anthony Sherman.

Some things still worry me about this offense: it isn't built to score early and often, and it isn't built to come back from behind. The quick pace, no-huddle offense wears the defense down with consecutive successful drives. Unfortunately, that fatigue won't show up until later in the game, meaning the Chiefs could have difficulties scoring early against top-tier defenses. Since the offense isn't made to strike fast and come back from a big deficit, this could be a problem with more competitive teams. Still, hypothesizing about how this offense will perform against playoff defenses is considerably more fun than hypothesizing about the number one draft pick.

Speaking of which, Eric Fisher looked strong and the running game was successful. At least to me, it was surprising to see Reid decide to run the ball as often as he did. Along with many other Chiefs fans, I was concerned that the run-game would take a back seat when Andy came to town. 24 run plays and one comfy victory later, I'm convinced that Reid knows how to use this team's talent to its full effect.

6 out of 7, and 9 out of the last 13 seasons began with 0-2 records for KC. For a team that never seems to take a strong first step, a solid performance from the offense and a nearly flawless outing from the defense in week 1 means a hell of a lot. This first test was about as easy as it could be, but the Chiefs passed it with flying colors. Step one for being a winning football team is beating the teams you're supposed to beat, and KC has proven it can do just that.

Many questions remain unanswered. We still don't know how these new-and-improved Chiefs will react to a playoff-caliber team. Thankfully, we don't have long to wait. This week, an all-together different, and much more difficult test comes to Arrowhead. We'll take a closer look at Romo and the Cowboys later this week. Don't you just hate 'em? I know I do.

Season Preview- September

Another major moment in the offseason that often goes unmentioned is the release of the new schedule. Sports media gets clogged with Draft Day talk and free agency moves at this time of year. People make plans to watch with friends or family. Folks gather together in crowded bars, watching Draft Day pregame analysis and enjoying Draft Day drink specials. Sadly, no corks were popped for the important announcement of which teams stand in the way of your favorite club's ascension to greatness. Now that fans know who and when they play, the hypothesizing and the fantasizing become all-the-more concrete. Even with the regular season being over four months away, that's still something to appreciate. So, let's run through Kansas City's 2013 schedule. With free agent acquisitions to look at and Draft Day looming near, there are plenty of things to talk about aside from the new schedule, but I'm doing it anyway. So, we'll take it one month at a time, and that means today we'll be looking forward to September.

Before we get started, just let it be known that I reserve the right to change any game predictions I make here, right up until the moment that game begins. Lots of things can happen, and we've got an entire draft yet to come- as if ESPN could possibly let you forget. I promise I'm not especially flip-floppy. I just want to be thorough.

Week 1- Chiefs at Jaguars, September 8^th

The season starts with a real bang as the league's two worst teams clash in Jacksonville. Last year's Jags offense ranks above only the Cardinals and the last-place Chiefs in points scored. With MJD starting only 5 games, their rushing offense was the 3^rd worst league-wide. To top it all off, they couldn't stop anyone on defense, either. Jacksonville allowed the 3^rd most yards and the 3^rd most points in 2012. The only disparaging thing about those statistics are just how similar they are to the Chiefs last season. However, the changes that the Jaguars made do not serve the optimist as well as the changes made in Kansas City. It's reasonable to assume that the Reid-Dorsey rebuilding process will turn out better than.... whatever they're doing down there in Jacksonville. They could have an A+ draft and still be worse on paper than Kansas City is right now.

Prediction: The Chiefs start the season with a comfortable win and a lot of momentum to bring back to Arrowhead.

Week 2- Chiefs vs. Cowboys, September 15^th

This year's home opener should be intriguing and difficult. This is one of many games that will be much easier to decide after the draft. If the Chiefs supplement the secondary with a 2^nd or 3^rd round pick that makes an immediate impact, I may be predicting a win here in the future. Otherwise, it could be too tough to stop last year's 3^rd best passing offense. Andy has plenty of experience coaching against Dallas, but has always struggled to stop Romo and Company from advancing the ball through the air at their leisure.

Prediction: Jamaal should have a good enough outing to slow things down and keep scoring lower than expected. The game will be decided by a key turnover, and unfortunately, it will probably come from a member of Dallas' talented secondary. The Chiefs lose, and the fans have visions in their sleep of all the interceptions from years past. Many awaken in the dead of night, drenched in a cold sweat, rubbing their eyes furiously, trying in vain to erase the blurry images of Steve Bono and Matt Cassel still lingering in their tortured minds. I shudder at the thought.

Week 3- Chiefs at Eagles, September 19^th

This should be interesting. Andy Reid takes his new team to his old home as the Chiefs take on Philadelphia. It's hard to say right now what Chip Kelly will make of the pieces left over from Andy's era, but there is still plenty of talent in Philly right now. Assuming Vick starts next year, the new-look Eagles could be the NFL's equivalent of a Run and Gun offense. A dynamic offense that stretches the field vertically and challenges the edges with rushing speed isn't too hard to imagine. That all sounds great to a starving Eagles fan-base- that is, until their star QB gets hurt, again, and leaves their team to flounder in mediocrity, again.

Prediction: If Vick starts, the Eagles will get off to an early lead. Then, he'll get hurt, and when Nick Foles comes in to make Philly's offense predictable again, KC turns things around for an exciting comeback win on the road. If Vick doesn't start, said predictability from the Eagles offense should allow the Chiefs to outscore Philly for a slightly more comfortable victory.

Week 4- Chiefs vs. Giants, September 29^th

The Giants come into town this fall with a grudge and a lot of previous success. Even in a down year, New York's offense ranked 6^th in 2012. The passing and rushing game ranked 12^th and 13^th respectively, and improving on those stats may prove difficult this year. Without Ahmad Bradshaw, or a clear answer at tight end, New York has a lot of work to do to improve through the draft and free agency. Even with all the changes on the offensive side of the ball, the defense was clearly what kept the G-Men out of the playoffs. They gave up the 5^th most yards through the air and the 8^th most yards through the ground last year. So, does this mean the newly revamped Chiefs offense can edge out an important win against Eli and the Giants?

Prediction: No. It doesn't. The Giants' front office has successfully retooled the team several times to get them well-equipped for a playoff run. They could draft Eifert from Notre Dame to give Eli another legitimate passing threat, or they could improve their defense and return to their former days of defensive dominance. Either way, the staff in New York will do enough to make the team successful, and Eli will have enough firepower to abuse a KC secondary that will inevitably go through some growing pains.

So, according to these very flimsy predictions, the Chiefs end the month with a .500 record, but are winless at Arrowhead. Hopefully, those losing predictions were hogwash, because losing those home games will do little to improve the formerly intimidating crowd factor. On-again, off-again fans of KC football won't see the off-the-field moves that put this team in a great position to be a contender for years to come. They'll see two losses at home, and a lot of sad fans. Like I said, I hope I'm wrong and Arrowhead has every reason to explode this September. Sadly, two of the toughest games on the league's 5th-easiest schedule are difficult, early games at home.

Thankfully, winning in October should be much more feasible. With games against the Titans, Raiders and Browns, KC should be turning things around before All Hallow's Eve. Next week, we'll break down all the October match-ups. Stay tuned for more free agent analysis and draft day speculation.