The Answer (Probably)

Here it is, everyone. Here's the big news we've all been waiting for- the answer to the biggest question concerning Kansas City football. The Chiefs have chosen their new quarterback, and agreed to terms to bring him to KC. Probably.

Since San Fran officially announced a willingness to trade Alex Smith, the Chiefs have clearly emerged as the team with the most interest. According to Greg Rosenthal of NFL.com, the deal between Smith and KC is “all but done.” A few hours after this news broke, Jason LaCanfora of CBS Sports tweeted that the 49ers told other interested teams that a deal involving Smith was “effectively complete. Can't be finalized til league year begins 3/12.” This followed several other tweets from around the league that were essentially announcements from teams pulling out of negotiations for the San Fran QB. By late Sunday night, Kansas City appeared to be the only candidate still in the race.

If it's all true, the search is over. The new franchise QB is here- or at least, he'll be here on March 12^th. We can all move on from the QB situation once and for all. Probably.

In another NFL.com report, Ian Rapaport mentions that because of the odd situation in San Francisco last year, the Chiefs know that Alex “won't tear the place apart if he's replaced.” That's a very important and understated point. Several sources have pointed out Reid's interest in using the first draft pick on offensive lineman Luke Joeckel. However, with this move the Chiefs leave themselves the option to draft whichever 2^nd or 3^rd round QB catches their attention. If Ryan Nassib or Matt Barkley or Tyler Bray become the apple in Andy's eye, the Chiefs can still grab him, probably in the 2^nd round. Probably.

Everything is still up in the air, unfortunately. Who knows how we'll use our 2^nd round without knowing the 1^st round pick? We could trade down and change the draft order. We could trade the 2^nd round pick in free agency. It could be gone already; for all we know, the Chiefs already traded the 2^nd round draft pick for Alex Smith and signed the official/unofficial contract.

Since every theory is built on a foundation of probable-truths and hearsay, nothing will be clear fact until we hear it from the mouth of someone within the Chiefs organization. At the very earliest, this would come on March 12^th, the technical start to the new football year. For now though, it seems as if all the rumors and all the reading between-the-lines point to Smith being the answer. With the mediocre Matt Flynn and the untested Nick Foles* as the other legitimate options in free agency, Alex Smith seems to be the optimal choice. As much as I can read into it, Smith is coming to Kansas City, and the Chiefs made the best decision possible for this situation.

You know, probably.

* The Foles/Chiefs situation has supposedly ended with another stern rejection from the Philadelphia front office. According to USA Today, the Eagles reiterated to Reid on Saturday that Foles was not currently on the market. Why they said this publicly the first time while simultaneously naming their price is still a worthy question. Nonetheless, it seems Foles is officially off the list. That is, until a few weeks from now, when free agency begins, draft stocks shift, and every team's long-term plans become more concrete. Don't let the strong posturing fool you- if Smith isn't coming to Kansas City, Foles still looms in the shadows as an intriguing dark-horse. 

Dorsey and The Domino Effect

 So, another piece of the puzzle falls into place. This Monday, John Dorsey signed on to fill the confusing co-general manager position here in KC. The signing ends a long stint with the Packers, where Dorsey spent 12 years as Director of College Scouting, then earned a position as Director of Football Operations just last year. Dorsey will report only to Hunt, but for the first time in franchise history, the head coach will also report directly to the team owner. Clark explained to the press that Dorsey will have control of personnel decisions, while Andy has full control over the team on the field.

This move reunites Dorsey and Reid after they worked together in Green Bay from '92 to '97. The Packers averaged nearly 11 wins per season over that time, and never ranked lower than 6^th league-wide in total points scored. Their final three seasons together include a Super Bowl win, a Super Bowl loss, 7 playoff wins and 37 regular season wins. Those years brought some legendary moments, with Elway and Favre simultaneously playing their best football. But, as much as I love thinking back to those times, the nostalgia brings with it more proof of a very important point.

Andy Reid has a strong resume and loads of success in the NFL. That much is clear. But, his presumed expertise is the ability to engineer a pass-happy, top-shelf offense. He is generally well-respected in the league, and his reputation is strong enough to improve the resume of others around him. The NFL had enough faith in Andy to offer head coaching jobs to five coaches he hired previously. But forget about all that respect and reputation nonsense, and look at the numbers. Andy Reid is a successful coach, but he has never succeeded without an elite quarterback. In the four seasons of coaching without McNabb or Favre starting at QB, teams led by Reid average 6.75 wins in the regular season. In those four years, Andy Reid has exactly zero playoff victories.

So what does that mean? Are we screwed? Are we really back to a situation where indecision at the quarterback spot is this team's biggest flaw? Oh god, what if we sign Michael Vick? The realization of Reid's limitations brings up plenty of unnerving questions. Sadly, many of them will go unanswered until this year's draft, unless a bold move is made in the free agency market before then. But either way, I'm either gullible or wise enough to believe it will work. Even though looking at the options we have for improving at QB makes me weep softly, I think this duo will make the team a winner. There are just too many pieces, too many uber-talented skill players on the offense for Dorsey and Reid not to make something good out of it. John Dorsey earned this job by providing vital insight for the draft. His impressive list of draft choices include Aaron Rodgers, Clay Matthews, BJ Raji, Jermichael Finley, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and AJ Hawk. Reid has utilized players similar to Jamaal and Bowe and Moeaki well enough to make them all Pro Bowlers. It sounds crazy, but if you take the misused offensive weapons from last year and supplement them with the first pick in every round of the draft, this team is already a winner on paper.

Obviously, all this hinges on Dorsey and Reid's communal choice of a franchise QB. Considering how quickly Mr. Hunt made his moves for coach and GM, one would assume he'll be prompt in bringing a new QB to Kansas City. The options are plentiful, but nobody stands out as a special franchise quarterback. There will be a lot of rumors and a lot of time to analyze the possibilities, especially if the team waits until this April to draft their next QB. For now, I see one option as being markedly more interesting than any other:

First, wait until the 49ers season is over, and figure out what they're doing with Alex Smith. Then, if and however we can, offer him a contract. After Smith is signed on, spend your second draft pick on Matt Barkley, who many project to fall as far as the third round. Now, you have two competent, highly motivated guys to compete for the starting job. Imagine it: in one corner is Smith, who went to the Pro Bowl this year and was then benched for an unproven young QB. At the season's end, he gets (hypothetically) cut or traded or whatever, then he ends up in Kansas City fighting against another young unproven QB to take back his starer position and avoid holding the clipboard yet again. Then, in the other corner, there's Matt Barkley. Will he finally be the USC quarterback that lives up to expectations? Will he live the rest of his life regretting coming back to college for his senior year? With all those questions weighing on him, Barkley has all the reasons in the world to succeed.

With this option, we have a Pro Bowl QB fighting for his pride against an elite college prospect with everything to prove. Sounds better than Tebow to me. At this point, I'd be happy knowing that only one of those guys will be given a chance at the starting spot next season. Are we really so down on Barkley that we'd rather see Cassel or Quinn? Again? Seriously? There's no way that can happen. So, as we keep this pie-in-the-sky idea in mind, we can only kick back and wait for the rumors to spread. We'll hear a lot of names in the next few weeks, from Matt Flynn to Geno Smith to Jason Campbell to Mike Glennon. But, amidst the plethora of options, Smith and Barkley's battle for respect still stands out as the most intriguing possibility.