Our Kansas City Chiefs are just hours away from their chance to do something never done before. These Chiefs have the opportunity to become the first ever team to win three consecutive Super Bowls. No back-to-back champs have ever made it back to The Big Game for a shot at #3. Standing in Kansas City's way is an imposing Philadelphia Eagles team with a superior defense, offensive line, running back and better wide receivers. Philly also has an offensive coordinator who succeeded so much in his role that he'll reportedly become the New Orleans Saints head coach once this game is over.
Eagles OC Kellen Moore deserves tons of credit for building an elite offense around Saquon Barkley and an elite offensive line. His scheme helped Saquon become just the ninth player in league history to run for 2,000 yards in a season. Philly leaned heavily on the offensive line and running back to great success this season, even when it disgruntled A.J. Brown and anyone else wanting them to air it out more often. Despite his frustrations, Brown still ranked fourth out of all qualifying receivers in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus. PFF also has Devonta Smith ranked in the top-20 after he led the league in catch rate this season.
All those weapons on the Eagles' offense, and especially Barkley, gave Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo plenty to think about these past two weeks. Derrick Henry faced off with Spags' defense in the first week of this year's regular season, and he ran for just 46 yards on 13 carries in that game. Bijan Robinson ranked third in rushing yards this season behind only Henry and Saquon, but when he faced Kansas City in Week 3, he averaged only 1.9 yards over 16 carries. Bucky Irving, who ranked 10th in rushing for Tampa Bay, ran for 49 yards on 10 carries when the Chiefs beat the Bucs in overtime in Week 9. Carolina's Chuba Hubbard, who ranked 8th in rushing this season, ran for 58 with his 16 carries when he faced the Chiefs in Week 12. That's four of the league's ten best running backs, and all of them averaged less than five yards a carry when they played Kansas City.
While KC excelled facing elite running backs, Saquon's stats against elite rushing defenses looked pedestrian. He looked good against Tampa's fourth-ranked rushing defense, averaging 8.4 yards per rush, but Philly's early 24-0 deficit in that game led to Saquon getting only 10 carries. He also faced Pittsburgh's 5th-ranked rushing defense, Green Bay's 6th-ranked rushing defense and #1-ranked Baltimore in the regular season. In all those games, he ran between 19 and 24 times and never averaged more than 4.7 yards per carry. Another Saquon performance like that today would be great news for Kansas City.
If Philly wants to keep this game competitive, they need to score way more than 19.2, which is the Chiefs' average points allowed per game in this regular season. The Eagles scored 27.2 per game in the regular season, which is good for seventh in the NFL, but that would not be enough to keep up with Playoff Mahomes. Playoff Mahomes is an absolute monster. He's simply the best at everything among everyone ever when it comes to the playoffs. Vic Fangio coordinated an excellent Eagles defense this season, but it won't be enough to stop Mahomes and Andy Reid from succeeding today.
The Eagles have a great, young secondary, a strong linebacker core led by PFF's "Breakout Player of the Year" Zack Baun and an elite blitzing attack led by edge rusher Nolan Smith and All-Pro defensive lineman Jalen Carter. These studs helped Philly allowed the least total yards and passing yards in the regular season. They ranked second behind the Chargers by just 0.1 points in scoring allowed. They held eight of their last nine regular season opponents to under 21 points. Only three of the Eagles' opponents, through the regular season and the playoffs, scored more than 23.
Mahomes told media that him vs. Fangio is "going to be a chess match", but it's really been like a chess match between Magnus Carlsen and a third-grader. Mahomes is 8-0 against Fangio-led defenses, with six of the wins coming against Fangio as head coach of the Broncos, and the other two occurring when Fangio was Miami's DC. The Kansas City Star's Blair Kerkhoff pointed out, however, that Mahomes has never faced a Fangio team this good before. Those Fangio teams scored about 12 per game, and while those Broncos and Dolphins defenses never ranked above 13th in DVOA, or Defensive-adjusted Value Over Average, the Eagles are first in the NFL. Even when facing a Philly team with an elite offense and defense, Mahomes' playoff prowess gives Kansas City the edge in today's Big Game.
A moment like this to prove one's greatness in completely unprecedented fashion is rare. Mahomes lives up to big moments with a higher rate of success than any quarterback in playoffs history. Similar consistent greatness has been shown by Andy Reid, Travis Kelce and Chris Jones. I expect the true greats to be truly great today, but that also means Saquon could come very, very close to breaking countless hearts in Chiefs Kingdom. While the Eagles may have the better roster as a whole, I think the Chiefs' roster outclasses them when it comes to the number of players and coaches involved that are considered all-time greats. That will ultimately lead to a high-scoring, all-time moment for the NFL and a 33-27 victory for our Kansas City Chiefs.
As always, I hope you have the opportunity to enjoy it all with people who love football and love you.
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