Chiefs' Struggling Stars Sent West to Best Banged-Up Chargers

The two most successful players in the most successful era of Kansas City Chiefs football are both working through the worst starts to a season they've ever experienced. The modern metrics for quarterback play indicate that Patrick Mahomes is performing at a level right between that of Gardner Minshew and Kirk Cousins. Mahomes has never had a Passer Rating this low through three games. His closest compadre on the team and fellow future Hall of Fame no-doubter Travis Kelce has 8 catches for 69 receiving yards and no touchdowns. He accomplished that in a single game five different times last season, and that was his least-productive season since 2015. 

It's actually impressive to see what KC can accomplish without Mahomes, Kelce or most of their defense being great at the moment. Despite the Chiefs defense allowing the NFL's 7th-most total yards per game, 5th-most passing yards per game and tying for the 5th-worst turnover differential, KC's record remains unblemished. After continuously finding ways to win against hungry, tough competition, the Chiefs should have the edge over this broken-down version of the Los Angeles Chargers. Left tackle Rashawn Slater is out for today's game, and right tackle Joe Alt is listed as questionable. Stud linebacker Joey Bosa will also miss this game because of injury, and safety Derwin James Jr. is suspended after an illegal hit to the head on Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth last week.

When it's at full-strength, this L.A defense looks formidable. Only five teams have held their opposition to fewer yards per game than the Chargers, and only two have allowed fewer points. Do those numbers really impress you after remembering the quarterbacks they faced, though? Before losing for the first time this season to Justin Fields' Pittsburgh Steelers, the Chargers beat Gardner Minshew's Las Vegas Raiders and Bryce Young's Carolina Panthers. I know I just detailed Mahomes' current struggles, but no three-week stretch of data can change the fact that Mahomes is flat-out better than those guys. 

We also now have evidence that KC's current #1 running back can help them control the game when it matters most. Carson Steele took 17 carries for 72 rushing yards against the Falcons while Bijan Robinson ran the ball 13 times for only 31 yards. This proved crucial when the Chiefs needed to kill clock to control the game and eventually clinch it. Najee Harris did the same to the Chargers last week. That's not the only part of the Chiefs game plan that should look similar to Pittsburgh's today.

In my previous post, I noted how KC's defense could potentially limit the Falcons like T.J Watt and the Steelers did. That ended up being mostly true, as the Chiefs held a talented Atlanta offense to 17 points last week. Pittsburgh limited the Chargers in similar fashion and held them to just 10 points when L.A's offensive line was healthier. With all the Chargers' current health issues, KC can once again mirror Pittsburgh's defensive strategy for success and come away with a win. I'm predicting a 23-10 victory for the Chiefs and an efficient performance from their still-elite quarterback.

Chiefs Face Unpredictable Falcons After Running Back Roster Shake-Up

The Kansas City Chiefs found a hidden gem in the seventh round of the 2022 draft when they picked running back Isiah Pacheco out of Rutgers. KC planned to have Pacheco as their #1 back and Clyde Edwards-Helaire as their #2 this season. Neither will be active for Sunday Night Football with the Atlanta Falcons tonight. Carson Steele somehow represents the most tenured active Chiefs running back, unless we're counting the returning Kareem Hunt, who was just added to the Chiefs practice squad. While KC searches for its new identity at running back, KC's defense will face off with perhaps the best running back in football.

Atlanta's Bijan Robinson represents the crown jewel of a Falcons offense stacked with young talent. From 2021-2024, The Falcons used first round draft picks on a tight end (Kyle Pitts), a receiver (Drake London), a running back (Bijan) and, oddly, a quarterback (Michael Penix Jr.). It's still too early in the season to know if the Falcons can succeed with this core of skill players plus Kirk Cousins at QB. Cousins posted a 59 Passer Rating with 155 yards, one touchdown pass and two picks in his first game as a Falcon, when T.J Watt and the Steelers seemed to disrupt Atlanta's offense with ease. That same offense looked far more frightening when Cousins posted a 117.2 Rating in a Week 2 win over the Eagles that was ultimately decided by a 4th-quarter two-minute drive for a TD.

The Falcons offense we saw in their win last week could cause problems for a Chiefs defense that's allowing the league's 4th-most yards per game this season. However, I wouldn't bet against KC's star of the secondary Trent McDuffie today - or ever. Through his 100 coverage snaps of the current season, KC's All-Pro CB has allowed just 3 catches for 26 yards. Watching Pittsburgh's T.J Watt cause chaos when he faced the Falcons leads me to believe that Chris Jones and George Karlaftis can help KC accomplish something similar. KC may not hold Kirk and the Falcons to just 10 points like Watt did, but they shouldn't need to.

Whether or not KC finds success running the ball on the Falcons, I expect the Patrick Mahomes Chiefs to score more than the Justin Fields Steelers. I genuinely believe the Chiefs could use a running back roster spot on a french poodle today and still field a better offense than Pittsburgh. Seriously, if I had to choose between my team having Justin Fields and every skill player on the Steelers roster or Patrick Mahomes and a poodle, I'm choosing the poodle package every time. The Falcons defense also experienced an overhaul and infusion of young talent this offseason, and Mahomes' passing attack will find their flaws tonight. I'm predicting a 24-17 win for the Chiefs.

Could Pittsburgh Present Playoff Perils to KC?

Playoff football returns to Arrowhead tonight. The Kansas City Chiefs are huge favorites this time around as they host the Pittsburgh Steelers. What could give the 14-point underdogs a chance against the Chiefs in this lopsided, do-or-die battle?

Football fans everywhere likely agree that the Steelers won't have the advantage at QB tonight. In fact, a player who will one day become another one of Pittsburgh's representatives in Canton may be the player holding the Steelers back the most right now.

Pittsburgh struggled their way through an easy schedule and snuck into the playoffs as Ben Roethlisberger finished the regular season with an Adjusted QBR of 35.8. That ranks 25th among all qualified players, putting Big Ben behind guys like Jalen Hurts, Daniel Jones and Taylor Heinicke. The only player to play more than 14 games and finish with a lower QBR was rookie Jaguar Trevor Lawrence. Big Ben had the full support of one of the most respected teams in football history, and Trevor Lawrence is a Jacksonville Jaguar. 

Prior to Pittsburgh's overtime victory over the Ravens last week, Roethlisberger compiled QBR's no better than 14.0 in three consecutive games. What's actually impressive is the fact that the Steelers only lost one of those three games - the one in which they faced the Kansas City Chiefs. Kansas City was the only team to score more than 14 points against Pittsburgh during that stretch. It's probably no coincidence that the Chiefs won while keeping T.J. Watt sack-less in that game, as opposed to him racking up four sacks against Cleveland and one and a half sacks against Tennessee. 

Watt led the league in sacks, tying the all-time record of 22.5. Thankfully for worrisome fans belonging to Chiefs Kingdom, KC's offensive line finished third league-wide in percentage of sacks allowed per play, behind only the Bills and Bucs. The line that Kansas City built from scratch this off-season finished its first year ranked fifth in Pro Football Focus' power rankings. If health permits, the Chiefs should prove with this ensuing playoff run that worrying about the offensive line represents only residue of past failures.

Speaking of past failures, turning the ball over is another way KC could turn this opportunity into another memorable disaster like we witnessed in the pre-Mahomes regimes. KC is 11th in the NFL in turnover differential at +4, and Pittsburgh is tied at 13th with +2. This ranking for the Chiefs felt like a disappointment when I saw that stat, especially when I also saw that KC's 29 takeaways ties them for fifth-best in the league. It's also worth noting that the top-ten list for total takeaways is comprised of eight playoff teams, the Indianapolis Colts and the Miami Dolphins. It certainly seems like a high volume of takeaways takes teams to the playoffs or gets them damn close.

Kansas City's problem with their turnover differential came from their surprisingly high volume of giveaways; 25 ties them with the Tennessee Titans for the ninth-most in the NFL. No team with more giveaways reached the playoffs, and each team on the top-five list for most giveaways this season lost at least 11 games. Pittsburgh's 22 takeaways this season ties them at 14th in the league, meaning that the Chiefs will face an opponent whose ability to take the ball away is essentially league-average. The Chiefs have played five teams with higher takeaway totals this season - the Cowboys, Bills, Packers, Giants and Titans - and Kansas City won three of those five games.

The gulf between the prior success rates of the teams facing off today makes it impossible for me to give the Steelers any hope. I'm predicting a comfortable 31-17 victory for the Chiefs. The "nothing to lose" mentality only gets a team so far when they run into an opponent playing objectively better football.